Core Viewpoint - The former Party Secretary and General Manager of China Aluminum's Qinghai branch, Xing Zhanxiong, is under investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission [2] Company Summary - Xing Zhanxiong's investigation indicates potential governance issues within China Aluminum's Qinghai branch [2]

Group 1 - The former Party Secretary and General Manager of China Aluminum Qinghai Company, Xing Zhanxiong, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - The investigation is being conducted by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission stationed at China Aluminum Group [1]

Group 1 - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission reported on November 10 that Xing Zhanxiong, the former Party Secretary and General Manager of China Aluminum Qinghai Company, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - The investigation is being conducted by the discipline inspection and supervision team stationed at China Aluminum Group [1]

Core Points - China Aluminum Corporation's Guizhou branch was fined 15,000 yuan for violations related to safety production management, specifically for not equipping the mine with a registered safety engineer [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - China Aluminum Corporation (Chalco) was established on September 10, 2001, and is a core subsidiary of the Aluminum Corporation of China, being the largest global supplier of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, fine alumina, high-purity aluminum, and gallium [3] - The company's stocks are listed on both the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (since December 2001) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (since April 2007) [3] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The fine imposed by Guiyang Emergency Management Bureau is part of regulatory enforcement under the Safety Production Law of the People's Republic of China [1][2] - The specific violation involved the failure to comply with regulations regarding the appointment of a registered safety engineer at the mining site [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metal ETF (159652) and its underlying index components, indicating a mixed performance among major stocks, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous Metal ETF (159652) closed at 1.523, with a slight increase of 0.66% [1]. - The ETF's trading volume was 524,900, with a turnover rate of 2.83% [1]. - The ETF's net asset value (NAV) was reported at 1.5152, with a premium/discount rate of 0.51% [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Major stocks such as Guocheng Mining and Ganfeng Lithium saw significant increases, with Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit [2]. - The stock of China Aluminum and Shandong Gold also rose by over 2% [2]. - In contrast, stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt experienced declines [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate a shift in interest rate expectations, with a decrease in the likelihood of rate cuts in December and January [3]. - The market is awaiting a liquidity turning point, which could impact precious metal prices positively in the future [4]. Group 4: Industrial Metal Insights - The supply side for industrial metals remains tight, with ongoing disruptions in copper mining affecting prices positively [5]. - The aluminum market is expected to enter an upward cycle due to a projected shortage, with recent price increases noted [5]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous Metal ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment option due to its high "gold and copper content" and concentration in strategic metals [6]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return of 131% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [8].

Summary of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum sector has an annualized price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 8-9 times and a dividend yield exceeding 5%, with potential for further increases [1][2][3] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise at an annual level, which will enhance profit elasticity and present a favorable annual allocation choice [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply Constraints**: Recent overseas marginal production cuts, particularly in Iceland and Mozambique due to power station issues, are expected to impact global supply by 1-1.5 percentage points, significantly affecting the market [1][2] - **Metal Rotation Dynamics**: Following new highs in metals like gold, silver, and copper, aluminum prices are anticipated to shift from recession expectations to inflation recovery or soft landing expectations, indicating a price recovery potential [1][3] - **Institutional Allocation**: The third quarter saw a decrease in public fund holdings in the electrolytic aluminum sector, making it an attractive choice for annual allocation in a liquidity easing environment [1][3] - **Long-term Investment Timing**: The current period is viewed as the best time to buy, coinciding with the mid-stage of interest rate hikes and liquidity easing, which is expected to lead to synchronized increases in stock valuations and commodity prices [5][6] Price Trends - Short-term aluminum prices in London and Shanghai have reached near three-year highs, with significant upward potential remaining [4] - The price ratio between copper and aluminum is expected to converge from the current 4-4.2 times to around 3.5 times, suggesting aluminum prices could approach historical highs [7] Market Demand and Substitution - Copper and aluminum are increasingly used interchangeably in various applications, which helps alleviate supply pressures from individual metals [8] Future Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is projected to undergo a valuation reconfiguration, potentially increasing from the current P/E ratio of 8-9 times to 10-13 times or even 15 times over the next 3-5 years due to tightening sustainable power supply and other factors [2][17] - The global energy demand from data centers and the impact of EU carbon tax policies are expected to further influence the sector's dynamics [11][12] Regional Supply Constraints - Areas such as Indonesia, the Middle East, and Africa face significant challenges in expanding production capacity due to local electricity availability [10][15] Company Performance - Integrated companies like Tianshan Aluminum, Hongqiao, and China Aluminum are expected to perform more stably, while non-integrated companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Yun Aluminum may benefit from price fluctuations in alumina [18] Conclusion - The electrolytic aluminum sector is positioned for potential growth and valuation recovery, driven by supply constraints, favorable market dynamics, and institutional interest, making it a key area for investment consideration in the coming years [17][19]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Rare Earths Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Rare Earths** industry, particularly in **Greater China** and the **Asia Pacific** region [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Temporary Relaxation of Export Controls**: On October 30, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a suspension of extensive export controls on rare earths for one year, with general export licenses likely to be issued for compliant producers [2][3]. - **Supply-Demand Outlook**: The supply-demand situation for major rare earth elements is expected to tighten further into **2026**, indicating potential price increases and supply constraints [1][5]. - **Trade Data Trends**: China's rare earth and magnet trade data for the first nine months of 2025 show mixed trends, with significant year-over-year declines in medium-to-heavy rare earth exports (over 40%) and growth in light rare earth exports (over 30%) [10]. - **Production and Quotas**: China's production of NdFeB (Neodymium Iron Boron) blanks is projected to grow approximately **8% YoY** to **390-400kt** in 2025, with further growth of **10-15% YoY** to **420-430kt** in 2026. Export demand may account for **15-18%** of this production [10]. Additional Important Information - **Import Trends**: Rare earth imports into China have slowed by **36.5% YoY**, primarily due to reduced imports from Myanmar and the US, although imports from Laos and monazite from Nigeria and Madagascar have increased [10]. - **Export Performance**: Exports of rare earth magnets from China fell by **5% YoY**, with a **25% YoY** decline in exports to the US, reflecting a decrease in high-end product exports due to the controls [10]. - **Recycling Contribution**: Supply from recycling, which constitutes about **one-third** of total supply, is not included in the mining quota and is expected to continue rising [10]. Conclusion - The rare earths industry is experiencing significant changes due to China's policy adjustments and market dynamics. The temporary relaxation of export controls may provide short-term relief, but the long-term outlook suggests tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly as production quotas and recycling efforts evolve.

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) indicates a strong upward trend, driven by significant inflows and positive market sentiment towards the sector, particularly in light of ongoing central bank policies and global demand for gold and battery materials [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 10, 2025, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 2.19%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 240 million yuan [1]. - The CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index surged by 2.14%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Guocheng Mining (+9.99%), Hunan Gold (+6.21%), and Shengxin Lithium Energy (+5.90%) [1]. - Over the past 21 trading days, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) has seen a net inflow of 884 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Central Bank and Gold Demand - The central bank's latest report shows that as of the end of October, its gold reserves increased to 7.409 million ounces, up by 30,000 ounces from September, marking the 12th consecutive month of accumulation [1]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that interest rate cuts and policies from former President Trump may drive gold prices higher, with central bank purchases providing a supportive floor for prices [1]. Group 3: Battery and Storage Demand - According to CITIC Securities, the energy storage policy in 2025 is expected to drive an unexpected increase in demand for energy storage batteries, with improvements in battery capacity and trade-in policies boosting demand for power batteries [1]. - The global demand for lithium salt is anticipated to continue exceeding expectations, supported by the ongoing growth in energy storage and power battery sectors [1]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Recent market trends indicate a bullish sentiment towards cyclical sectors, particularly in coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, new energy, photovoltaic industry chains, and memory storage [2]. - Non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are highlighted as potential cyclical investment opportunities based on supply-side changes and free cash flow levels [2]. Group 5: Index Composition - The CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index comprises 50 listed companies selected from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors to reflect the overall performance of the industry in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and China Rare Earth [2].

Core Insights - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has increased by 0.56% as of November 10, 2025, with leading stocks including Yuntianhua, Shoulv Hotel, Changbao Co., Huaren Health, and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has seen a 0.5% rise, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.22 yuan [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has recorded a net inflow of 260 million yuan over the past five trading days, with a total share count reaching a new high of 4.706 billion shares [1] Performance Metrics - As of November 7, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a net value increase of 24.13% over the past six months [2] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception is 7%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being six months and a maximum increase of 22.69% [2] - The ETF has a historical six-month profit probability of 100% and an average monthly return of 3.2% [2] Risk and Recovery - The maximum drawdown for the Free Cash Flow ETF in the last six months is 3.65%, which is the smallest among comparable funds [2] - The recovery time after drawdown is 35 days, indicating the fastest recovery among similar funds [2] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [3] - The tracking error over the past two months is 0.052%, demonstrating the highest tracking accuracy among similar funds [3] Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index account for 54.79% of the index, with major holdings including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Wuliangye, and Gree Electric Appliances [3][5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum shortage logic is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices [2] - Copper prices are currently experiencing fluctuations due to domestic inventory accumulation, with a potential shift towards a supply shortage in the medium to long term [4][21] - The lithium sector is witnessing unexpected demand, with lithium salt entering a destocking cycle, indicating a potential rebound in lithium prices [4][73] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply situation [4][86] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI was below expectations at 48.7, while the ADP employment figure exceeded expectations with an increase of 42,000 jobs [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous sector showed a slight decline, with the Shenyin Wanguo non-ferrous index down 0.04%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.12 percentage points [10][11] - The aluminum and lithium sectors showed better performance, while the magnetic materials and rare earth sectors lagged [10] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 25.53, with a change of 0.32, while the PB is 3.16, with a change of 0.03 [19][22] 4. Industrial Metals Copper - London copper prices fell by 1.57%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.23% [21][22] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.95%, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance in the future [21] Aluminum - London aluminum prices decreased by 1.01%, while Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.74% [35] - The profit margin for electrolytic aluminum rose to 5,741 yuan/ton, up 3.66% [35] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 0.19% to 80,400 yuan/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 0.26% to 75,580 yuan/ton [73] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 0.43% to $23.53 per pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.54% to 384,000 yuan/ton [86]