Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 6, 2025, covering multiple metal sectors such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold had a V - shaped reversal, closing up 0.22% at $3380.86 per ounce; London silver rose for the third consecutive day, closing up 1.06% at $37.81 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold's main contract closed up 0.01% at 784.4 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed up 1.15% at 9178 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index oscillated within a range and almost closed flat at 98.727. The 10 - year US Treasury yield temporarily stopped falling at 4.2021%. The RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, closing down 0.05% at 7.1834. [2] Important Information - Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with drug tariffs up to 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The final value of the US 7 - month S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, higher than the expected 55.2 and the previous value of 55.2. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - Due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payrolls data last week, the "strong reality" of the US economy's resilience has loosened. The newly released ISM and S&P services PMI point in different directions, and the precious metals market mainly trades towards weak expectations. [2] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, existing long positions can be considered to be held. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Last night, the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78070 yuan per ton, down 0.52%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 1167 lots to 470,000 lots. The LME closed at $9634.5 per ton, down 0.65%. The LME inventory decreased by 14,275 tons to 153,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 262,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.1, lower than expected. Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs, increase tariffs on India, and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if necessary. Chile's copper exports in July were 179,996 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,396,851 tons, with 40,943 tons of copper and 997,013 tons of copper ore and concentrate exported to China. [6] Logic Analysis - The supply of copper mines is disturbed, and the production of smelters at home and abroad is differentiated. The inventory of non - US regions is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. [7][9] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term supply is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 77,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [10] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 3 yuan to 3207 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the northern comprehensive spot price of alumina by Aladdin down 10 yuan to 3270 yuan, and the national weighted index down 10.6 yuan to 3289.3 yuan. [11] Important Information - The full - cost of the alumina industry in July was 2905 yuan per ton, down 66 yuan from the previous month, with a profit of about 275 yuan per ton. A mine's memorandum was revoked, and its shipping terminal was suspended. India traded 30,000 tons of alumina at an FOB price of $377.25 per ton. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 6627 tons to 13,242 tons on August 5. The national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.75 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.8%. [12][13][15] Logic Analysis - The theoretical supply - demand surplus of alumina has significantly expanded, the spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. Before the significant increase in warehouse receipts, the alumina price has certain support in the range of 3000 - 3100 yuan. [16] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the alumina price will oscillate above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. Pay attention to the low - warehouse - receipt risk when entering the delivery month. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [16] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 30 yuan to 20,525 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China all increased. [18][20] Important Information - The White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, which will take effect on August 7. On August 5, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons to 44,287 tons. [20] Trading Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is strengthening. The LME aluminum inventory is increasing slightly, and the domestic market is gradually returning to fundamentals. The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and pay attention to the peak inventory in the off - season and the opportunity of the spread expansion. [20] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the aluminum price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum futures is between 40 - 70. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [21] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 19,955 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions all increased. [23] Important Information - As of July 31, the weekly production of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 0.19 million tons to 13.98 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.51 million tons. Some new projects in the new energy vehicle lightweight parts manufacturing are planned to be put into production. In July, the ADC12 industry's theoretical profit was 63 yuan per ton, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan compared with the previous month. [24][25] Trading Logic - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the import volume is low, the downstream demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price. [26] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate with the aluminum price. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spot price is at a discount of more than 300 yuan to the futures price. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market fell 0.15% to $2750 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.07% to 22,300 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index increased its positions by 2137 lots to 207,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was between 22,280 - 22,375 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was poor. [30] Important Information - Western Mining's zinc production in the first half of 2025 was 62,875 tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and Glencore's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 251,600 tons, up 19% year - on - year. Glencore adjusted its 2025 zinc production guidance to 940,000 - 980,000 tons. [30][31] Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, the smelter production is active, and the consumption is in the off - season with obvious inventory accumulation. [32] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term zinc price may oscillate. Consider shorting on rallies due to the increasing supply and off - season consumption. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [33] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.61% to $1975.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 contract rose 0.24% to 16,755 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index reduced its positions by 283 lots to 112,500 lots. The SMM1 lead price fell 100 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand. [35] Important Information - Some regenerated lead smelting enterprises in East and Central China may adjust their scrap battery purchase prices if the lead price continues to weaken. The environmental protection work in Anhui may affect local regenerated lead smelting enterprises. [35][36] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead concentrates is tight, the price of lead - containing waste is high, the supply of primary lead is increasing, the production of regenerated lead is in a loss but still has an increment, and the downstream lead - battery enterprise purchasing has improved. [37] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the lead price may maintain a low - level oscillation. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [42] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell to $15,055 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 2172 tons to 211,254 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 fell to 120,500 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different nickel products changed. [40] Important Information - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of nickel batteries, and the nickel benchmark price in Indonesia has increased slightly. The US Fed may cut interest rates. [40][41] Logic Analysis - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the market's trading of the US economic recession affect the nickel price. The nickel market has an oversupply expectation, and the inventory is slowly increasing. [43] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money put options. [44] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless steel main contract SS2509 fell to 12,935 yuan per ton, and the index increased its positions by 3063 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [46] Important Information - Zimbabwe plans to ban chromium ore exports, and the chromium ore inventory in China has reached a record high. [47] Logic Analysis - The market trades the US economic recession expectation. The cost of stainless steel has increased slightly, the production is expected to increase in August, the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. [48] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. [48][49] Group 11: Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin 2509 contract closed at 266,950 yuan per ton, up 0.3%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1105 lots to 47,716 lots. The spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai Metal Market increased, and the actual demand is still weak. [50] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, and Trump announced tariff plans. [50][51] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which boosts the tin price. The LME inventory is low, the supply of tin mines is tight, and the demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. [51] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the tin price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. [52] Group 12: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures rose due to the impact of coking coal, and the main contract closed at 8450 yuan per ton. The spot price of industrial silicon generally fell by 100 - 250 yuan per ton. [55] Important Information - Hesheng Silicon Industry will reduce industrial silicon production capacity. The production of DMC and polysilicon is expected to increase in August. [55] Comprehensive Analysis - If leading manufacturers resume production in August, there will be a slight surplus of industrial silicon; otherwise, there may be a supply - demand gap of 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The social inventory is high, and the spot is not tight. [55][56] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it may rise due to sentiment in the short term but will be weak after the sentiment fades. For the options strategy, there is no recommendation. For the arbitrage strategy, conduct a reverse spread arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts. [56] Group 13: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures rose due to the increase in coking coal prices, and the main contract closed at 50,330 yuan per ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon are given. [58] Important Information - The MIIT issued a notice on energy - saving inspections for the polysilicon industry. [58] Comprehensive Analysis - The polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, and there may be a surplus of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The expectation of polysilicon capacity integration is strengthening, and the expected futures price after integration is 60,000 - 65,000 yuan per ton. [58] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, hold long positions. For the arbitrage strategy, hold long positions in polysilicon and short positions in industrial silicon for the long term, and close the reverse spread arbitrage on the far - month polysilicon contracts. [59] Group 14: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract of lithium carbonate fell to 67,840 yuan per ton, and the index reduced its positions by 11,764 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 1840 tons to 14,443 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased. [60] Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in July were 23,824 tons, with 20,930 tons of lithium carbonate, and 13,633 tons were exported to China. The new - energy vehicle wholesale forecast for 2025 was slightly adjusted. The production of some lithium mines is normal. Some new lithium carbonate production projects have been put into operation. [60][61] Logic Analysis - The supply - side news is bearish, the long - position funds are leaving, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. [62] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate downward to find support. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money call options. [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - For the zinc market, in the macro - environment, the "anti - involution" sentiment in China is fluctuating, US non - farm payroll data is below expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthening. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventories provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are unlikely to drop significantly and are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [1] - Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead basis was - 175 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [1] - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 41.92 dollars/ton, up 5.94 dollars [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Futures active contract trading volume was 40,133 lots, down 13.13% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 72,083 lots, up 1.06% [1] - Trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.56, down 14.04% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,656 tons, down 0.59% [1] News - On August 3, 2025, the Anhui Ecological Environment WeChat public account announced a campaign to collect clues on prominent problems in rural black - odorous water bodies and rural domestic sewage treatment facilities. This has affected Anhui's secondary lead smelting enterprises, with some refineries suspending production [1] Fundamental Analysis - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable. Secondary lead scrap battery prices are likely to rise, and some refineries have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is expected to enter the peak season, but enterprises are pausing purchases for inventory checks this week [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis was - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1] - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 13.16 dollars/ton, down 2.29 dollars [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Futures active contract trading volume was 85,449 lots, down 26.17% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 98,472 lots, down 4.14% [1] - Trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.87, down 22.98% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 92,275 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 14,807 tons, down 0.67% [1] News - On August 5, Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in transitional funding from the Australian federal, South Australian, and Tasmanian governments to support its smelters and key - metal development plans [1] Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm are improving, with obvious production increases. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved, but end - demand is in the off - season and enterprise operations have declined [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards. As a result, there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions. They should pay attention to the support levels around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance levels around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support levels around 3,300 - 9,500 and the resistance levels around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support levels around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance levels around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper. (View score: -1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330, down 70 from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, down 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420, up 90 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 90, up 160; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 55, down 40; in North China, it remained at - 120; in East China, it was 30, down 5 [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month vs. Far - Month)**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 20, up 30; between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, down 10; between the second and the third continuous contracts was 80, up 20 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5, up 75.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 139,575 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 52.73, down 3.48; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 139.23, up 3.70; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0682, down 0.07 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456, up 0.03; the total inventory was 261,180, an increase of 3,265 [2]. Industry News - **Corporate News**: Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume at its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce copper concentrate processing through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing of electronic waste, aiming to increase the utilization ratio of recycled materials and profitability. The 2025 cathode copper production forecast will be announced separately (Onahama's copper rough - smelting capacity is 230,000 tons) [2]. - **Regional News**: Peruvian informal miners have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to disagreements. The government refused to adjust the August 17 deadline and required miners to transfer explosives to a formal "powder magazine". About 20,000 miners who cannot meet the deadline will be excluded from the government's work regularization plan [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: European high - quality scrap steel export restrictions, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, negative price differences between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the closure of the scrap copper import window may lead to a decrease in domestic scrap copper production (import) in August. Many copper smelters around the world are facing production adjustments, such as the shutdown of Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines, the suspension of Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia, and the suspension of Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile. Some projects are under construction or planned to increase production, like Jiangxi Hongyuan's second - phase project and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou [3]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand [3]. Inventory Situation The inventory of electrolytic copper in domestic bonded areas has decreased compared to last week, while the domestic social inventory, LME inventory, and COMEX copper inventory have all increased [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are recommended to hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been rising, indicating that there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan, down 70 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 90 yuan, up 160 yuan from the previous day. The spot discounts in Guangzhou, North China, and East China were -55 yuan, -120 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively, with changes of -40 yuan, 0 yuan, and -5 yuan [2]. - The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract was 20 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5 US dollars, up 75.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 139,575 tons [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 261,180 tons, an increase of 3,265 tons [2]. Industry News - Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume of its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce the copper concentrate processing volume through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing volume of electronic waste to improve the utilization rate of recycled materials and profitability [2]. - Non - formal miners in Peru have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to differences in the negotiations. The government refuses to adjust the August 17 deadline and requires miners to transfer explosives to formal "powder magazines" [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - European high - quality scrap steel exports are restricted, and Chinese importers can only purchase steel shot or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to a low direct import of US scrap copper by traders. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window [2][3]. - Some copper smelters at home and abroad are facing production adjustments. For example, Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply [3]. - Some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production. For example, Jianggang Hongyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March, and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou Jinshan Economic Development Zone started construction on June 24 [3]. Investment Strategy - Due to the expected increase in domestic crude copper production and the possible decrease in electrolytic copper production and import in August, and the increase in total electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, it is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **basic materials sector** in China, particularly focusing on **coal**, **steel**, **cement**, and **lithium** in the context of China's **anti-involution policy** [5][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to rectify low-price and disorderly competition, eliminate outdated capacity, and create a unified national market. It emphasizes sectors like **electric vehicles (EV)**, **solar**, and **e-commerce**, while focusing on **lithium** and **coal** in basic materials [5][12]. - **Coal Inspections**: The National Energy Administration (NEA) is inspecting coal mines in eight provinces to address overproduction. The impact is more significant in **metallurgical coal** (26% volume impact) compared to **thermal coal** (3% volume impact). Production cuts are anticipated, but execution remains uncertain [6][14]. - **Price Projections**: - **Met Coal**: Prices are expected to average around **RMB 1,200/ton** with potential curtailments [6][14]. - **Thermal Coal**: Prices may recover to **RMB 670/ton** during summer but are expected to soften in Q4, averaging **RMB 630/ton** in 2025 [14]. - **Steel Sector**: Steel is considered a lower priority in the anti-involution campaign due to previous successful reforms. Steel output has already declined by **7-9% year-on-year** in May-June [7][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Hydropower Project Impact**: The Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project, costing **RMB 1.2 trillion**, is expected to consume **4.3 million tons per annum (mtpa)** of cement and **0.6 mtpa** of steel, which is not anticipated to significantly impact overall commodity consumption [10][12]. - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore prices have increased from **$93/ton** to **$103/ton** due to expectations of property stimulus and supply reform. Steel production in China has slowed, and exports remain strong at **~112 million tons** in June [11][12]. - **Inventory Levels**: Both thermal and metallurgical coal inventories are healthier compared to earlier in 2025, with thermal coal inventories at Independent Power Producers (IPPs) remaining elevated [14]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the implications of China's anti-involution policy on the basic materials sector, particularly coal and steel. The anticipated production cuts and price adjustments reflect the government's efforts to stabilize the market while addressing overproduction issues. The impact of new infrastructure projects on commodity demand appears limited, and the overall sentiment in the iron ore market remains cautiously optimistic.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US employment market weakness boosts Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper fluctuates upward, suggesting that Shanghai copper prices may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 80,943 lots, down 28,068 lots; open interest was 167,671 lots, down 8,522 lots; inventory was 20,349 tons, up 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, down 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was -70 yuan, down 595 yuan; Guangzhou electrolytic copper spot premium was -15 yuan, up 5 yuan; North China electrolytic copper spot premium was -120 yuan, down 10 yuan; East China electrolytic copper spot premium was 35 yuan, unchanged; the spread between near - month and continuous - first Shanghai copper was -10 yuan, down 70 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 141,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -49.25 US dollars, up 1.51 US dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was -142.93 US dollars, down 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1387, up 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, down 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, up 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: Due to the US government's decision on July 30, 2025, to exempt imported electrolytic copper from tariffs, the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, leading a large amount of electrolytic copper to be transferred to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Company Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand El Teniente. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion is expected to add 2 - 3 tons of copper production in 2025 and reach 15 tons after full - production, with the annual output expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, resulting in 6 deaths and halting nearby activities for investigation [2]. Investment Strategy - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in January. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the annual rates of US consumer - end inflation CPI and core CPI in June. Due to the possible significant downward revision or far - below - expected new non - farm payrolls in June - July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts in September, October, and December [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates increased month - on - month, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative and higher than the previous week, and the port copper concentrate throughput (in - port, inventory) in the world (China) decreased (increased, decreased) compared with the previous week. The restriction on high - quality scrap steel exports in Europe and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations affected scrap copper imports, and the import window for scrap copper was closed. Some copper smelters suspended production, and domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in domestic rough copper production (import) in August [2]. - **Trading Advice**: Hold previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and COMEX copper [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 4 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | | 表2：8月1日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 持仓 | 前 20 空头 持仓 | 前 20 多头 持仓变化 | 前 20 空头 持仓变化 | 多空 对比 | 偏离度 | | RB2510 | 1,091,327 | 1,137,768 | -42,476 | -28,385 | -14,091 | -1.26% ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250801 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：6 月 PCE 超预期反弹，国内股商情绪持续降温 海外方面，美国 6 月核心 PCE 同比回升至 2.8%，创四个月新高，环比涨幅亦升至 0.3%， 通胀超预期。受关税推升进口价格影响，物价压力上行，消费与收入放缓，强化美联储年内 不急于降息的预期，目前 9 月降息预期降至 38%。特朗普签署行政令将对未列国征收 10% 关税，加拿大税率从 25%升至 35%，转运税达 40%；墨西哥原有关税延期 90 天（25%芬太 尼汽车、50%金属）；欧盟酒类 8 月起被征收 15%关税，巴西 45%出口商品获豁免 50%关 税，印尼寻铜关税或降至 19%。美元指数站上 100 关口、美债利率回升，超预期的 PCE 及 关税对风险偏好有所压制，美股高开低走，金、铜、油均收跌。今晚关注 7 月非农就业报告。 国内方面，7 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3%，弱于预期与季节性，新订单与出口订单同步 回落， ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company's self-owned copper production decreased by 21.0% year-on-year to 176,000 tons, while cobalt production increased by 1.1% to 9,400 tons [1][3] - The company reported a significant increase in zinc production, which rose by 18.9% year-on-year to 251,600 tons, and a decrease in lead and nickel production [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a 26% decrease in copper production compared to the first half of 2024, attributed to mining sequencing and lower ore grades [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Q2 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 176,000 tons, down 21.0% year-on-year, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned cobalt production: 9,400 tons, up 1.1% year-on-year, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned zinc production: 251,600 tons, up 18.9% year-on-year, up 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned lead production: 41,000 tons, down 7.0% year-on-year, down 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned nickel production: 17,800 tons, down 12.7% year-on-year, down 5.3% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] H1 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 343,900 tons, down 26% year-on-year - Self-owned cobalt production: 18,900 tons, up 19% year-on-year - Self-owned zinc production: 465,200 tons, up 12% year-on-year - Self-owned lead production: 90,900 tons, up 3% year-on-year - Self-owned nickel production: 36,600 tons, down 7% year-on-year - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [3][7][8] 2025 Production Guidance - Updated production guidance reflects a tightening of ranges, considering year-to-date performance and expected full-year results [11][13]