Core Insights - The core message emphasizes the importance of innovation in the face of challenges, as articulated by Qin Yinglin, Chairman of Muyuan Foods, during the 2025 CCTV Financial New Year's Eve event [1]. Group 1: Entrepreneurial Journey - Qin Yinglin's journey in the pig farming industry spans 33 years, highlighting key decisions made during challenging times [2]. - The initial decision to pursue pig farming was driven by financial necessity, leading to a commitment to mastering pig farming techniques [2]. - The company evolved from a small operation with 22 pigs to the world's largest pig farming enterprise, showcasing significant growth and resilience [2]. Group 2: Response to African Swine Fever - In response to the African swine fever outbreak in 2018, the company faced a critical choice between inaction and proactive measures [2]. - The decision to invest in air filtration technology for pig housing resulted in a significant reduction in costs, from over 100 million yuan to approximately 23 million yuan per unit [2]. - This innovation not only protected the company from the disease but also contributed to the recovery of the Chinese pig farming industry [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Future Goals - Muyuan Foods has transitioned from basic pig housing to advanced automated systems, tripling its scale from 2018 to 2021 [3]. - The company aims to achieve the "three good" goals: good pigs, good people, and a good industry, focusing on technological advancements and quality improvement [4]. - Future initiatives include developing smart machinery for easier pig farming, enhancing breeding techniques, and ensuring high-quality pork at affordable prices for consumers [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in pork prices before the New Year, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 12.39 CNY/kg, a 7.6% increase from the previous week, although it remains 19.7% lower year-on-year [5][13][23] - The implementation of a safeguard policy for beef import quotas is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures, with a total import quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, which is 93.5% of the total imports in 2024 [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages in the livestock sector, particularly Wens Foodstuff and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology [5][13] Livestock Farming - The report notes that the pork market is under pressure due to significant losses in the industry, but the reduction in production capacity is expected to accelerate, leading to a more stable price environment in the first half of 2026 [5][13] - For poultry, the average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.78 CNY/lb, down 3.1% week-on-week, while yellow feather chicken prices have shown slight increases, benefiting companies like Lihua and Wens [5][13][32] Dairy Industry - The current price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a balance in supply and demand as inventory levels decrease [14] - The safeguard measures on beef imports are anticipated to support domestic beef prices, which are expected to rise, enhancing the performance of companies like Yurun and Modern Farming [14] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a rebound in aquaculture prices due to holiday demand, with significant increases in white shrimp prices leading up to the New Year [15] - The feed industry is facing intense competition, but leading companies are expected to gain market share due to their cost advantages, especially in international markets [15] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.7 percentage points, with livestock farming and feed sectors showing the highest gains of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively [21] - The report tracks various agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices, with corn prices rising by 0.6% to 2352 CNY/ton [23][46]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, anticipating a rebound in the meat and dairy cycles, benefiting industries related to dairy and beef cattle [1][4] - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments, such as YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a focus on industry leaders poised for recovery [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant reversal, with a focus on beef and dairy cattle. The domestic beef production capacity is anticipated to decrease to levels seen during the 2019 pig cycle, with prices expected to rise until 2028 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic raw milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to production capacity pressures. The "meat and milk ratio" has reached historical highs, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [14][36] - Recommended companies in the livestock sector include YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are expected to benefit from improving raw milk prices and the upward trend in beef prices [14][17] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.67 yuan/kg, reflecting a 13% month-on-month increase [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the swine industry, such as Huazhong Holdings and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to see significant cash flow improvements and higher dividend returns due to their low-cost advantages [15][19] - The overall industry is projected to stabilize, with a focus on valuation recovery for leading firms as the market adjusts to supply and demand dynamics [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is witnessing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery. The price of broiler chickens has shown a month-on-month increase of 9% [22] - The report notes that the structure of parent stock is changing, which may impact actual supply growth. However, demand is expected to benefit from domestic stimulus policies and macroeconomic improvements [22][28] - Key companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Food and Shengnong Development, which are positioned to maintain good profitability amid these changes [18][22] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising consumer segment, with domestic brands rapidly gaining market share. The emotional consumption trend is expected to drive long-term growth in this sector [16][18] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, which is focusing on product upgrades and direct sales transformation to capture market opportunities [16][18] Feed and Grain Sector - The feed sector is benefiting from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] - The report indicates that corn prices are at a historical low, with strong support expected from cost structures, while soybean meal prices are also at low valuations, awaiting a cyclical rebound [18][21]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 农林牧渔 2026 年 1 月投资策略 优于大市 看好肉奶周期共振反转，奶牛及肉牛相关产业受益 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头）、现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）、德康农牧（创新农户合作模式 的生猪养殖标的）、立华股份（低成本黄鸡与生猪养殖标的）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：12 月末生猪 12.67 元/公斤，月环比上涨 13%， 7kg 仔猪价格约 231.67 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics are driving the pig price upward, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.78 CNY/kg as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.20 CNY/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 3.01 CNY/kg [3][12] - The implementation of country-specific quotas and additional tariffs on imported beef is expected to benefit domestic beef prices, with a total import quota of 268.8 million tons for 2026, a decrease of 6.34% compared to 2024 [4][21] - The pig farming sector is experiencing accelerated losses, while the pet food sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][27] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors, with a recovery in price margins observed [12] - The utilization rate of breeding facilities increased to 32%, up 2.0 percentage points week-on-week and 11.1 percentage points year-on-year [12] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index rose by 0.13%, in line with the overall market performance [29] - Key stocks such as Jingji Zhino (+19.00%), Muyuan Foods (+5.48%), and Shennong Group (+4.16%) led the gains [34] Price Tracking - As of January 2, 2026, the average price of live pigs was 12.76 CNY/kg, up 1.13 CNY/kg from the previous week [39] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.82 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [43] - The average price of beef was 65.89 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.08% week-on-week [47] Key News - The Ministry of Commerce announced the implementation of country-specific quotas and additional tariffs on imported beef, effective from January 1, 2026, for a period of three years [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, leading to a potential price turning point in Q2 2026, with long-term performance improvements anticipated for related stocks [3][43] - The structural growth trend in the post-cycle sector continues, with profits likely to gradually transmit downstream if the current round of pig capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, benefiting the animal health sector [3] - The planting chain shows a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of December 31 was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 10.38%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 19.44 yuan/kg, up 2.21% week-on-week [12][51] - The supply side shows a widening price gap for fattened pigs, supporting price increases, while demand is boosted by consumption expectations during the New Year holiday [12][17] Poultry - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.82 yuan/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week, and chick prices rose to 3.59 yuan/chick, up 1.7% week-on-week [17][51] - The supply of meat chickens has increased, leading to a more relaxed market supply, while demand has weakened due to some slaughterhouses reducing operations [17] Feed Sector - The prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal have risen, with corn averaging 2351.57 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3172.29 yuan/ton, up 0.96% week-on-week [27][51] - Increased selling enthusiasm among farmers is noted, although the pace of supply remains slow [27] Major Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber futures price was 15605 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 0.29% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][51] - The current down cycle for sugar prices continues, with no significant recovery expected [39]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 牛肉进口实施配额制及配额外关税，看好肉牛价格周期上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-04 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 农林牧渔 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]钱浩 | SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BND274 | 021-38003634 | | | shqianhao@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 李雅琦 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 | 021-68827265 | | | liyaqi@gf.com.cn | 请注意，李雅琦并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market in 2025 is experiencing significant adjustments due to abundant supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in average prices and creating challenges for producers [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average price of pigs in 2025 is approximately 13.80 yuan/kg, significantly lower than in 2024, with prices fluctuating from around 16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to below 11 yuan/kg by late October [2]. - The supply of pigs is robust, driven by a high number of breeding sows and increased production efficiency, resulting in actual pork supply exceeding market expectations [2][5]. - Demand for pork is weak, with traditional consumption peaks failing to stimulate demand, leading to a situation where price increases do not correspond with demand growth [2][6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pig futures market reflects expectations of price declines, with significant fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics [3][7]. - Analysts predict that while supply pressures may persist in the first half of 2026, there could be marginal improvements in the second half due to potential reductions in breeding sow numbers and seasonal demand increases [6][7]. - The average price for pigs in 2026 is expected to range between 12 to 13 yuan/kg, with a potential for a price recovery later in the year [7]. Cost Management and Industry Restructuring - In response to declining prices, pig farming companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with leading firms achieving significant reductions in production costs [5][8]. - The cost of raising pigs for major companies has decreased, with examples such as Muyuan Foods reducing costs from approximately 13 yuan/kg to 11.3 yuan/kg [5]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards larger, more efficient operations, with smaller producers facing increasing pressure and potential exit from the market [5][8]. Risk Management Strategies - Producers are encouraged to adopt risk management tools such as futures and derivatives to mitigate price volatility and stabilize operations [9]. - The trading volume of pig futures in 2025 reached 17.99 million contracts, indicating increased market liquidity and the growing importance of futures in risk management for producers [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural industry [9] Core Insights - In 2026, the pig and beef cattle farming sectors are expected to reach a cyclical turning point, with clear growth potential in the pet sector and significant opportunities in specialty planting [2][13] - Companies with complete production, sales, and research capabilities in the pet industry are likely to succeed amid competitive pressures [8] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Price: The pig price is expected to remain low in the first half of 2026, leading to continued low profits in the industry [3] - Capacity: Policy and cyclical adjustments are driving capacity reduction, with a focus on cost improvement and growth potential in pig farming enterprises [3][27] - Debt Reduction: The average debt-to-asset ratio for listed pig farming companies has decreased to 56.27%, indicating improved financial health [27] Poultry Farming - White Chicken: The industry is experiencing deep price declines, with a return to supply-demand balance expected to take time [4][30] - Yellow Chicken: Prices may see slight recovery, supported by promotional activities for native chicken varieties [35] Beef Farming - Long Cycle: The beef farming cycle is lengthy, with a fragmented supply structure impacting pricing dynamics [39] - Price Outlook: A supply contraction is expected to support continued price increases for beef from 2025 onwards [46] Feed and Animal Health - Feed: The feed sector is anticipated to see growth in sales, with a positive outlook for 2026 as livestock numbers remain high [49] - Animal Health: Demand for animal health products may face pressure due to low profits in farming, but breakthroughs in key products are worth monitoring [58][59] Planting - Grain Prices: Grain prices are expected to trend upwards, driven by increased focus on food security and innovation in seed varieties [7][64] - Specialty Planting: Opportunities in specialty crops like blueberries and mushrooms are highlighted, with a focus on innovation and market demand [7][70] Pet Industry - Growth Potential: The pet market is thriving, with strong consumer willingness to spend, indicating clear growth prospects [8][13] - Competitive Landscape: Companies with integrated production, sales, and research capabilities are rare and likely to outperform in the competitive environment [8][13]

Core Insights - The livestock industry in 2025 experienced a steady progression amid policy adjustments and technological innovations, with "stabilizing production capacity, reducing costs, and strengthening technology" as the main themes [1] - The pig price showed a downward trend throughout the year, raising concerns about whether it would recover in 2026 [1] 2025 Review - The average price of lean pigs in China was 13.80 yuan/kg by December 22, 2025, a significant decrease of 17.66% year-on-year [2] - The price trend for 2025 was characterized by a "decline followed by stabilization and then further decline," with the highest price recorded at 16.36 yuan/kg on January 4 and the lowest at 10.72 yuan/kg on October 13 [2] - The core reason for the declining pig prices was the imbalance between supply and demand, with supply increasing significantly due to a release of production capacity [2] - The average number of breeding sows in 196 sample enterprises was 8.5264 million, a 5.61% increase compared to the previous cycle, leading to a total pig output of 168.965 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.58% [2] Demand Dynamics - Although there was a recovery in demand throughout the year, the growth was limited and insufficient to support a rise in pig prices [2] - The average daily slaughter volume was 175,700 heads, a 9.27% increase year-on-year, but this was primarily driven by increased output rather than a significant rise in demand [2] Ten Key Terms of 2025 - The ten key terms reflect a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development in the livestock industry, laying the groundwork for 2026 [3][4][5] 1. **De-capacity of Breeding Pigs**: A core regulatory policy aimed at stabilizing the number of breeding sows at 39 million [3] 2. **Going Global**: Leading enterprises are expanding internationally, marking the beginning of a "great navigation era" for Chinese agriculture [3] 3. **Liquid Precision Feeding**: A technology aimed at improving efficiency and reducing feed costs [4] 4. **Reduction of Soybean Meal**: A national strategy to ensure food security, with leading companies reducing soybean meal content in feed [4] 5. **Smart Farming**: The integration of AI and IoT to enhance farm management [4] 6. **Support for Beef/Dairy Industries**: Policies to assist struggling cattle and sheep farmers [4] 7. **Precise Disease Prevention**: A shift towards regular disease control measures [4] 8. **Green Farming**: Emphasis on sustainable practices [4] 9. **Standardization**: Initiatives to enhance regulatory compliance in the slaughter industry [4] 10. **Quality Improvement and Efficiency**: A focus on refined management and technological upgrades [4] 2026 Outlook - The pig price is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, with a potential turning point in the second quarter [6] - The average number of breeding sows in 196 sample enterprises was 9.1831 million, an 8.54% increase compared to the previous cycle, indicating continued supply pressure in early 2026 [6] - Demand is likely to remain passive, with seasonal fluctuations affecting the market [6] - The average price in the first half of 2026 is projected to fluctuate between 11.4 and 11.8 yuan/kg, with a potential rebound in the second half of the year [7] - The competition among pig enterprises will increasingly focus on internal capabilities, with a shift towards low-cost, high-tech operations [7] Summary - The livestock industry navigated a challenging year in 2025, with significant price fluctuations and a focus on transformation [8] - The anticipated "low first, high later" price trend for 2026 suggests cautious optimism, with key indicators such as breeding sow inventory and slaughter volume being critical for production planning [8]