Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's Q1 performance shows a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices and improved cost management [4][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 46.006 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.946 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 90.47% year-on-year [4]. - Basic earnings per share increased by 80% to 0.18 yuan [4]. Product Performance - In the mining and processing segment, copper production reached 170,600 tons, up 15.65% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the period [5]. - Cobalt production was 30,400 tons, with a completion rate of 27.65% [5]. - Molybdenum and tungsten production were 3,341 tons and 1,993 tons, respectively, with tungsten production increasing by 3.73% year-on-year [5]. Sales and Pricing - Revenue from copper and cobalt segments increased by 43.91% and 83.90%, respectively, despite no significant growth in sales volume [6]. - The gross margin for copper and cobalt reached 55.21% and 61.42%, significantly higher than the previous year's figures [6][7]. Market Dynamics - Copper prices approached 10,000 USD per ton in March, while cobalt prices rose by approximately 50% from January to March [8]. - The cobalt market is expected to face downward pressure in 2024, with a projected average price drop of 26.18% compared to 2023 [8]. Trade Segment - The mineral trading segment showed a mixed performance, with primary metal product sales increasing by 3.16% and revenue soaring by 98.59% [9]. - Refined metal product sales dropped by 68.44%, leading to a revenue decline of 32.27% [9]. Management Changes - Significant management changes were announced, including the resignation of the chairman and vice chairman, with new appointments aimed at enhancing operational efficiency [4][11]. - The new COO, Que Chaoyang, previously held a senior position at Zijin Mining, indicating a strategic shift in leadership [12][14]. Strategic Intent - The management changes reflect a strategic intent to optimize operations and enhance competitiveness in the mining sector [14]. - The company aims to improve its operational efficiency and product structure, focusing on high-margin primary products [10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The copper pricing mechanism is shifting from macroeconomic factors to supply-demand fundamentals, with expectations of price fluctuations in 2024 and a potential increase in 2025 due to intensified supply-demand conflicts [1][11]. - Global copper supply is primarily dominated by Latin America, particularly Chile and Peru, but growth in copper production is slowing down, with significant investments in exploration declining [2][16]. - Demand for copper is expected to remain robust, driven by sectors such as power infrastructure, electric vehicles, and home appliances, despite some downward pressure from the real estate sector [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Pricing Dynamics - The copper price in 2024 is expected to be influenced by macroeconomic easing and supply disruptions, leading to a volatile market [1][11]. - The second half of 2024 may see a price correction as macroeconomic benefits are absorbed and demand remains subdued [12]. 2. Copper Supply - The global copper mining supply is primarily concentrated in Latin America, with Chile and Peru holding significant reserves [2][16]. - The growth rate of copper mining investments is slowing, indicating a tightening supply trend in the long term [2][16]. - Key mining projects in Africa and Asia may face delays due to geopolitical risks and stricter environmental regulations [2]. 3. Copper Demand - Global refined copper consumption is steadily increasing, with strong demand from the power construction and new energy vehicle sectors [3][12]. - The demand for copper is expected to remain high due to ongoing investments in electric grid upgrades and renewable energy installations [3][12]. - Future demand dynamics will depend on policy developments and the evolution of the industrial chain [3][12]. 4. Key Investment Targets - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted as key investment targets due to their growth potential and strong performance in the copper sector [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump government's tariff negotiations with China and others are uncertain, but due to the expected increase in domestic economic stimulus policies and the decreasing trend of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold existing long positions or set stop - loss at high levels, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On April 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,600 yuan, with a volume of 79,140 lots and an open interest of 164,818 lots. The inventory was 34,042 tons, a decrease of 2,842 tons compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 78,035 - 435, and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on April 28 was 9,378, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 202,500 tons. The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on April 29 was 4.8625, and the total inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 5,783 tons compared to the previous day [2] News and Events - On April 8, a "phosphorus - iron - lithium" coupling circular integrated project started in Kaiyang County, Guiyang. It aims to build a global - competitive new energy battery material R & D and production base [3] - In March, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials was 189,700 physical tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 12.07% decrease from the same period last year. The import source is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and if relevant policies in Thailand and Malaysia change, the market will turn to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [3] Key Factors Macro - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached a budget resolution agreement on March 30, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling, and the Trump government may reduce tariffs on China, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates [4] Upstream - Some mines and smelters have production changes. For example, Antamina mine in Peru is resuming production, while some smelters in Chile, the Philippines, and other places are facing production suspension or maintenance. The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in May may change, with production possibly decreasing and imports possibly increasing [4] Downstream - The new orders of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while the capacity utilization rate of some domestic copper product enterprises may increase due to economic stimulus policies and tariff expectations [4]

004月8日，贵州孵化公众号上发布消息称"谈疏铁钢铁理氟"耦合循环一体化项目在贵阳市开阳目双流镇测永村开工，2万吨/年六氟减酸锂等项目开工。据了解，该项目是以磷的主导 的全资源循环播合产业示范项目，中核铂目、贵州降化及其他产业方与贵阳市人民政府签署合作协议。通过建设140万吨七水顽棱亚铁联产40万吨铁白粉、60万吨磷旋铁、60万吨磷酸铁 理、15万吨碳酸锂、1万吨氟化锂、2万吨元氰磷酸锂、10万吨铜冶炼、磷石膏分解制动酸、热电联产项目、公铺工程项目来打造具有全球等务力频能源电池材料研发和生产基地。 0组:BSMT 降，4月海关公布的进口再生铜原锌数据显示，3月再生铜原料进口量为18.97万突物吨，环比减少28%，同比减少12.07%。折分来源国来看，前五来源国分别为日本、美国、泰 国、马来西亚和中国台湾，日本进口量达2.7万实物吨，环比增加16%，一举跃升至第一名，美国进口量2.2万弈物吨，环比减少29%，受中美贸易战不断升级。中国海关次对4月00日前 寓开美国随口，并于5月22号前到达中国港口并报关的再生铜原料进行关税豁免，但在此前，8月份进口贸易商早已停止从美国采购两生铜原料，3月份到港货物均是1、2月赛 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided document does not contain information on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The tariff shock has eased, and copper prices have returned to fundamentals. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the copper market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing and domestic export orders somewhat restricted. - The current copper consumption shows a structurally differentiated characteristic, with the growth of emerging sectors' demand contrasting sharply with the weakness of traditional real estate. - The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons [101][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Copper Market Overview - **Price Fluctuations**: On April 2, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted. The price dropped from $9,721/ton on April 2 to $8,105/ton on April 7, a decline of 16.6%. After Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on 75 countries on April 9, prices rebounded. By April 25, LME copper prices reached a maximum of $9,481.5/ton, and domestic prices reached 78,520 yuan/ton, almost recovering all the losses caused by the tariff increase [3][11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, with processing fees dropping to - $42/ton. However, smelters have no plans to cut production. The proportion of scrap - copper - produced blister copper has increased to around 20%. Global consumption has advanced due to Trump's tariff policy. In May, overall consumption is expected to be high at the beginning and low at the end, with inventory likely to continue to decline slightly, and the spot premium remaining firm [4][14]. II. Market Section 1. Market Review - **Price and Inventory**: In April, due to the tariff policy, copper prices first fell and then rebounded. Domestic buying was strong, and the spot premium rose. In April 2025, global visible inventory decreased by 119,900 tons compared to March, reaching 604,000 tons. Chinese social inventory decreased by 155,500 tons, reaching 181,700 tons, while bonded - area inventory increased by 6,200 tons to 85,100 tons [11][12]. - **Consumption Drivers**: The significant increase in consumption in April was due to suppressed downstream procurement demand in March, increased procurement and inventory - building demand after the price drop, and unaffected export orders. Terminal consumption showed structural differentiation, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while traditional real estate was weak [12]. 2. Market Outlook - **Macro Factors**: During the May Day holiday, the release of important economic data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and the euro - zone manufacturing PMI may have a significant impact on copper prices. Trump's tariff policy remains unclear and may still impact the market [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and processing fees are expected to continue to decline. The 90 - day tariff suspension will continue to affect the market, with overseas rush - to - export continuing. The situation of the import window depends on domestic consumption in May and June [14]. - **Price Forecast**: If re - export orders can still be issued, copper prices will continue to consolidate, mainly in the range of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. If re - export orders are completely prohibited, prices will return to 73,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the overall center of copper prices will move down, but the decline may not be smooth before the US tariff policy is clear [5][15]. III. Copper Mine Production is Downgraded, and Copper Supply Growth is Flat with 2024 1. Global Copper Mine Production - **Production Forecast**: After the release of major companies' 2024 annual reports, the market has significantly downgraded the expected copper concentrate production for 2025. The expected copper mine supply increment in 2025 has been reduced from 500,000 tons to 200,000 tons, and the growth rate has dropped from 2.2% to 0.88% [20]. - **Company - Specific Production**: Different mining companies have different production trends in 2024 and 2025. For example, Anglo American's production decreased in 2024 and is expected to further decline in 2025, while MMG's production increased in 2024 and is expected to continue to rise in 2025 [21][24]. 2. Global Refined Copper Production - **Supply and Demand Balance**: In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 61,000 tons. The first two months of this year had a supply surplus of 150,000 tons, similar to the same period last year [45]. - **Processing Fees and Production**: The long - term copper concentrate processing fee for 2025 between overseas mines and Chinese smelters is at a record low. As of April 25, the import processing fee has dropped to - $42.52/ton. Despite losses, smelters generally have no plans to cut production [45][47]. - **Waste Copper Supply**: Waste copper has become a key supplement to raw materials. From January to February 2025, the supply of domestic waste copper increased by 226,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.79%. In March, China imported 189,700 tons of waste copper, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [47]. IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption - **US Consumption**: The US is in the stage of rush - to - import, and the replenishment cycle may last until July. Due to tariff disturbances, US consumption has advanced, but consumer confidence is declining, and consumption may decline more rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends [63]. - **European Consumption**: After continuous interest rate cuts, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI rebounded in April, but the comprehensive PMI and service PMI declined. Consumer confidence is also low, and consumption expenditure is restricted [64]. - **Emerging Economies**: Emerging economies are in a 90 - day rush - to - export stage. Countries with high tariff - levying ratios will experience an export consumption boom during this period, but the situation after July depends on US tariff policies [64]. 2. Domestic Consumption - **Real Estate**: From January to March 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing and the completion area of housing decreased year - on - year, although the decline narrowed. Real estate will continue to drag down electrolytic copper consumption [79]. - **Power Grid**: The planned investment of the two major power grid companies in 2025 increased by 6.7% compared to 2024. From January to March, the power grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year, and the wire and cable industry's copper consumption increased significantly [84]. - **Home Appliances**: In March 2025, the production and sales of household air - conditioners increased year - on - year. The consumption of air - conditioners is shifting from exports to domestic sales, but there are concerns about consumer waiting due to subsidies [86][87]. - **Automobiles**: From January to March 2025, China's automobile production increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicles growing rapidly. The substitution of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles will continue [89]. - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to March 2025, photovoltaic installation increased year - on - year, and the industry is in a rush - to - install period. Wind power installation decreased slightly, but the annual new - installation scale is expected to increase [95]. 3. Consumption Summary - In the 90 - day period, US consumption may decline rapidly after the concentrated replenishment ends. After the sharp decline in copper prices in early April, domestic consumption increased rapidly, with significant growth in wire and cable, photovoltaic, and export sectors, while real estate continued to drag down the market [96][97]. V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global Copper Supply - Demand**: The global copper market is expected to have a larger supply surplus in 2025 compared to 2024, with the supply surplus increasing from 170,000 tons to 338,000 tons. The growth rate of copper mine production in 2025 is expected to be 0.88%, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2% [101][102]. - **China's Refined Copper Supply - Demand**: China's refined copper consumption is expected to grow by 2 - 2.6% in 2025. The supply - demand balance shows a certain degree of fluctuation in different months [105].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in copper prices have shown a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact - In early April, copper prices dropped significantly due to concerns over U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," reaching a low of 71,320 yuan/ton after the Qingming holiday [1]. - Following the announcement on April 9 to delay high tariffs on some trade partners, global markets, including copper, rebounded sharply [2]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards stability, with the negative impact of U.S. tariff policies diminishing [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining operations remain stable, with minor disruptions reported, such as protests affecting the Antapaccay copper mine in Peru and a worker's death at the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile [3]. - There are signs of easing in copper concentrate supply, with the Panamanian government allowing exports and other mines showing potential for increased output [3]. - As of mid-April, the import copper concentrate processing fee was reported at -34.71 USD/ton, indicating a continued decline over three months [3]. Group 3: Copper and Scrap Price Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has narrowed significantly, reaching a low of 450 yuan/ton in mid-April, the lowest since October 2023 [4]. - The decline in copper prices has led to reduced sales volumes from scrap copper holders, impacting production levels [4]. - Despite negative processing fees for imported copper concentrate, domestic smelting rates have increased, reaching 87.68% by the end of March [4]. Group 4: Consumption Trends - The operating levels of refined copper rod enterprises are higher than in previous years, primarily due to insufficient scrap copper production rather than increased end-user demand [5]. - Seasonal trends in the air conditioning industry suggest a potential decline in copper demand in May, as production enters a down cycle [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to see a seasonal uptick in May, but the actual demand may be limited due to prior fulfillment of needs through subsidies [6]. Group 5: Price Outlook - Overall, driven by supply dynamics, copper prices are expected to continue their upward recovery in May [6].

Core Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association has urged the government to delay the upcoming increase in royalties until the LME nickel price reaches $17,000 per ton [2] - LME nickel prices have dropped over 2% since early April, currently around $15,500 per ton, with the last time prices hit $17,000 being in mid-October 2024 due to mining quota approval delays [2] - Increased LME nickel inventories are exerting downward pressure on prices [3] Exports - Nickel ore exports from the Philippines increased by 21% year-on-year from January to February 2025 [4] - The rainy season in southern Philippines has ended, leading to expected increases in medium-grade nickel ore shipments from the Surigao mine [5] Imports - In March, China imported 1,535,232.97 tons of nickel ore and concentrates, a month-on-month increase of 34.54% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06% [6] - The Philippines remains the largest supplier, with March imports of nickel ore and concentrates at 1,205,652.098 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63.95% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.51% [6] - China's nickel pig iron imports in March reached 1,013,259.492 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.55% and a year-on-year increase of 60.58% [6] - Indonesia is the largest supplier of nickel pig iron, with March imports at 989,055.225 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.58% and a year-on-year increase of 60.70% [6] Consumption - Global nickel consumption increased by 11% year-on-year in February [7] Production - A major nickel mine operated by GEM in Sulawesi, Indonesia, has halted production and is under review due to safety concerns following a landslide [9] - The mine has advanced smelting facilities with an annual nickel production capacity of 150,000 tons, capable of producing 50,000 tons of high-nickel precursor materials [9] - Indonesia's nickel production surged last year, leading to the closure of several large mines in other regions, including Glencore's Koniambo mine in New Caledonia, which saw a 48% decline in production in 2024 and a continued 50% decline in early 2025 due to ongoing unrest [9] Industry Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI in China for March was reported at 50.5%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [8] - LG Energy Solution has exited an $8.45 billion electric vehicle battery project in Indonesia, shifting focus to a joint venture with Hyundai, highlighting the dynamic changes in the global battery market amid demand uncertainty and tightening profits [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report highlights that the gold price experienced significant fluctuations due to expectations of easing trade conflicts, alongside profit-taking from previous rapid increases. This led to adjustments in gold stocks. Short-term corrections are primarily driven by emotional recovery, with a focus on economic data from May and June following tariff conflicts. The narrative of recession is expected to persist [2][6] - Historical trading behavior suggests that central banks or insurance funds may accelerate gold purchases during rapid price corrections. The ongoing trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to stabilize gold price fluctuations [6] - Most gold stocks have seen a valuation recovery of nearly 20 times but remain at historically low levels. The easing of U.S. tariff expectations has contributed to a rebound in industrial metals [6][7] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report maintains a strategy of increasing allocations to gold stocks during corrections, as the valuation of gold stocks is at the lower end of historical cycles. Suggested stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Shandong Gold International [6][7] Industrial Metals - Easing U.S. tariff expectations have led to a rebound in industrial metals, with LME copper rising by 1.9% and aluminum by 3%. SHFE copper and aluminum also saw increases of 1.7% [7][25] - The report notes a significant reduction in copper and aluminum inventories, with copper down 8.5% week-on-week and 4.84% year-on-year, while aluminum decreased by 3.81% week-on-week and 19.64% year-on-year. This is attributed to improved economic expectations and a shift in export trade [7][27] - The long-term outlook suggests that a weaker dollar will elevate the central price of resource commodities, with a focus on leading copper and aluminum stocks that are currently undervalued [7][8] Energy and Minor Metals - The report emphasizes that supply remains a key factor, particularly for rare earths and tungsten. China has implemented export controls on heavy rare earths, which is expected to catalyze supply-side improvements [8][26] - Tungsten supply is expected to remain rigid, with a controlled mining quota of 58,000 tons for 2025, reflecting a 6.5% decrease from the previous year. This is likely to support price increases [8][26] - The report also highlights potential upward price movements for cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints from Congo and Indonesia, respectively [8][26]

新任命4位管理层人员 洛阳钼业公告显示，因个人原因，袁宏林向公司董事会申请辞去董事长、非执行董事及董事会相关专门 委员会委员职务，该辞呈于公司股东大会增补相关董事的决议作出之时生效；辞呈生效之前，袁宏林将 继续履行前述相关职务。因个人原因，李朝春向公司董事会申请辞去副董事长、执行董事、战略及可持 续发展委员会委员及首席投资官职务，辞呈生效日期为送达董事会当日。 4月25日，洛阳钼业召开相关会议，同意增补阙朝阳、刘建锋为公司第七届董事会执行董事候选人。另 外，公司同意聘任阙朝阳为常务副总裁兼首席运营官、刘建锋为首席投资官、Kenny Ives为副总裁兼首 席商务官、谭啸为副总裁。 公告显示，阙朝阳1970年9月出生，曾任紫金矿业集团海内外多个大型项目、区域公司、事业部总经 理，集团公司副总裁兼总工程师。阙朝阳具有丰富的矿业投资并购、勘查、项目建设及运营经验。 刘建锋1977年1月出生，历任中国海油集团商务总监、复星国际洛克石油执行董事兼首席财务官、洲际 油气执行总裁兼首席财务官、新奥能源执行董事兼总裁及湖州燃气股份有限公司副董事长兼非执行董 事，主导多宗大型跨国并购与资源整合项目。 每经记者 王佳飞 每经编辑 ...