Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.38%[4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.2%, indicating its core support role in the economy[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.63% in July[4] Sector Analysis - 35 out of 41 industrial categories reported growth, achieving a growth coverage of 85.4%[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value growing by 9.3%, led by integrated circuit manufacturing at 26.9%[4] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, marking a historical low[4] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances (+28.7%) and communication equipment (+14.9%), showed strong growth[5] - Service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2%, driven by summer tourism and sports events[5] Future Outlook - The economic growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be lower than in the second quarter, primarily due to the real estate sector's challenges[5] - Despite potential slowdowns, achieving the annual economic growth target of 5% remains feasible due to ongoing export support and consumption policies[5] - Risks include the possibility of domestic demand recovery being slower than anticipated[5]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown resilience with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, despite external pressures and internal challenges. The focus is on implementing new policies to sustain economic recovery in the second half of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Measures - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting will assess the economic situation and deploy measures for the second half of the year, with an emphasis on optimizing counter-cyclical adjustment policies [2]. - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy scheme, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide families with 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, benefiting over 20 million families [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, with plans for further allocations [3]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Trends - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales from five major categories by mid-2025, surpassing the total sales for 2024 [4]. - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in the first half of 2025, with specific sectors like computer and office equipment manufacturing growing by 21.5% [5]. Group 3: Employment and Social Policies - The overall employment situation remains stable, with the urban unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first half of 2025, slightly down from the previous quarter [12]. - The government has introduced 19 policy measures to stabilize employment, focusing on supporting enterprises, enhancing skills training, and improving employment services [12][13]. - There is a call for increased efforts in social security and healthcare policies to enhance the inclusivity of macroeconomic policies [14].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic demand is emphasized as the fundamental driving force for China's economic development, with a focus on balancing supply and demand to achieve a virtuous economic cycle [1] Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Growth - Various regions and departments are intensifying efforts to implement strategies to expand domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency [1] - The 35th Naadam Festival in Inner Mongolia is expected to attract over 500,000 tourists from outside the region, generating more than 300 million yuan in comprehensive tourism consumption [1][2] Group 2: E-commerce and Retail - In the first half of the year, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6% year-on-year, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales of consumer goods, maintaining China's position as the world's largest online retail market for 12 consecutive years [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - The government has allocated 800 billion yuan to support "two重" (two key) projects, which include urban underground pipeline construction, directly impacting public welfare and urban safety [2][3] - In Nanjing, over 20 billion yuan in funding has been secured for the renovation of sewage pipelines, utilizing advanced technology such as customized machinery and robots [2][3] Group 4: Manufacturing and Financial Support - The traditional industry transformation and advanced manufacturing development are ongoing, with manufacturing investment playing a significant role [3] - In the first half of the year, new loans in China increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with a notable focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors [3][4] - By the end of June, the balance of medium- and long-term loans for the manufacturing sector grew by 8.7% year-on-year, while infrastructure loans increased by 7.4% [3] Group 5: Strategic Importance of Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is viewed as a strategic move for economic stability and security, especially in the context of rising external uncertainties [4] - The Minister of Commerce highlighted the unchanged long-term positive fundamentals of the economy, emphasizing the potential and resilience of the consumer market [4]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Innovation - The added value of high-tech manufacturing in China increased by 9.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing 23.3% to the overall industrial growth [1] - R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP in China has approached 2.7%, surpassing the EU average and nearing the OECD average [2] - The number of effective invention patent applications in China reached nearly 5 million in the first five months, growing by 12.8% [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Significant technological achievements include the launch of DeepSeek model, amphibious firefighting aircraft AG600 receiving certification, and advancements in quantum computing and nuclear fusion [2][3] - The number of national-level manufacturing innovation centers has reached 33, supporting the industrialization of technological achievements [2] Group 3: Industry Transformation - The structure of the economy is steadily adjusting, with high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service investments growing by 9.5% and 8.6% respectively [4] - The production of industrial robots increased by 32% year-on-year, and the added value of smart vehicle equipment manufacturing grew by 26.8% [4] Group 4: Green Development - The production of new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries for vehicles, and solar batteries increased by 36.2%, 53.3%, and 18.2% respectively in the first half of the year [4] Group 5: Financial Support for Innovation - The total amount of loans for technological innovation and technological transformation reached 1.7 trillion yuan, 1.9 times that of the end of last year [7] - A new "technology board" in the bond market has been established to promote the construction of a technology finance system [6][7]

Core Insights - Despite a gradual decline in the proportion of railway infrastructure investment within total railway fixed investment, the share of updates, renovations, and locomotive purchases is increasing, indicating that railway investment can maintain a relatively high growth rate, especially under the "Two Heavy" and "Two New" policies [1][5] - Railway fixed investment remains at a high level following a record year, with a reported investment of 355.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2][3] Investment Trends - The growth rate of railway fixed investment has slowed to 5.5% in the first half of the year, but this is notable given last year's high base. The total investment for 2024 is projected to reach 850.6 billion yuan, representing an 11.3% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The first half of the year saw a consistent upward trend in investment growth, with monthly year-on-year increases of 3.7%, 5.1%, 5.2%, 5.3%, 5.9%, and 5.5% [3] Project Developments - A significant number of railway projects are being expedited, with some expected to commence operations this year. Key projects include the Wuhan to Yichang section of the Huhang Railway and the Shenyang to Baihe Railway, among others [3][4] - The National Railway Group is focusing on advancing major railway projects as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with 102 major railway-related projects being prioritized [4] Regional Focus - Sichuan province has emerged as a key area for railway construction, with an investment of 55.9 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 11% of the national total [6][7] - The province is set to see significant increases in railway mileage, with 524 kilometers added in 2023 and another 322 kilometers expected in 2024, positioning it as a leader in railway expansion [7] Future Outlook - The focus of railway construction is shifting towards network connectivity and filling gaps in the existing infrastructure, with western regions, particularly Sichuan, expected to be the main battleground for future railway development [8]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement measures to stabilize employment and the economy by the end of June, which are part of a broader strategy to respond to external environmental changes and align with central government directives [1][2] - Key initiatives include supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [1][2] - The NDRC has allocated nearly 500 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support major projects, including infrastructure and urban development, with a complete project list expected by the end of June [2][3] Group 2 - The NDRC aims to enhance funding efficiency by establishing a direct and rapid mechanism for special long-term bond funds and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates [3] - There is a focus on addressing "involution" in competition, where companies engage in unhealthy practices such as selling below cost, which distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition [3] - The NDRC will work with relevant departments to promote healthy industrial development through innovation, local constraints, optimizing industrial layout, and strengthening market regulation [3][4] Group 3 - The NDRC is set to expand low-altitude economic applications, including low-altitude tourism and consumer drones, while ensuring safety and risk control [4] - The initiative will involve collaboration with local governments and industry management to regulate and promote orderly development in the low-altitude sector [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of financing support for key areas such as "two重" (two major projects) and "two新" (two new initiatives) to stabilize investment and enhance economic growth [1][2] - Infrastructure investment has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% from January to May, contributing 34.5% to overall investment growth [1][2] - Major projects are accelerating, directly driving related industries and solidifying the foundation for economic growth [2] Group 2 - The "two新" policies have been effectively implemented, particularly in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, and promoting transformation [2] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has significantly boosted sales, especially for green, smart, and high-quality products [2] - There is a focus on reducing financing costs for equipment updates, which will invigorate traditional industries and create a better environment for emerging sectors [2][3]

Core Insights - The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone, marking the largest decline since October of the previous year [2][3] Group 1: Profit Trends - The manufacturing sector's profit growth rate increased by 5.4% year-on-year from January to May, outperforming the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises by 6.5 percentage points [2] - State-owned enterprises experienced a profit decline of 7.4%, while private enterprises saw a profit increase of 3.4% during the same period [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The decline in profits is attributed to external environmental shocks, continuous decreases in the Producer Price Index (PPI), and insufficient domestic demand [3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable exceeded 70 days, indicating significant asset turnover pressure within the industrial sector [3] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs - State-owned enterprises were more adversely affected by tariffs compared to private enterprises, with state-owned profits declining by 18.1% in May [3][4] - The rising costs due to tariffs have eroded profits, as some enterprises bear the tariff costs themselves, while others face supply chain adjustment costs [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Performance - The profits of the large equipment manufacturing sector surged by 60%-120%, driven by new production capabilities and supportive policies [2] - Downstream industries such as entertainment products, textiles, and food manufacturing faced significant profit declines of -27.0%, -18.3%, and -7.0% respectively in May [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - In May 2025, the overall economy stabilized. Industrial production maintained steady growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.3% year-on-year. However, Sino-US tariff friction pressured downstream and midstream enterprises. The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the CPI slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. Investment growth slowed marginally, while consumption rebounded, and the real estate sector remained under pressure [3][4]. - Domestic demand showed resilience, but external uncertainties increased. The overall domestic demand in May demonstrated resilience, with consumption reaching a new high for the year. High-end manufacturing led industrial upgrading, and the optimization of the foreign trade structure hedged external risks. However, global differentiation intensified, and the impact of the Israel-Palestine war on upstream raw materials needed further attention [5]. Summary by Directory Growth: Steady Growth - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased to 61.2%. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries maintaining rapid growth. However, Sino-US tariff conflicts affected the growth of private, foreign, and state-owned enterprises [10][11]. Inflation: Continued Pressure - In May 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, mainly due to increased international input pressure and loose supply and demand of energy and raw materials. The CPI slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with significant structural differentiation. Energy and food prices declined, while service prices increased. Future risks included international commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical risks [22][45]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to May 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. Manufacturing investment maintained rapid growth, especially in high - tech fields. Infrastructure investment growth slowed, and private investment excluding real estate showed vitality in the service industry [60]. Production: Intensified Differentiation - From January to May 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with significant industry differentiation. High - tech industries such as the automobile and computer equipment manufacturing industries had high capacity utilization rates, while the upstream raw material industry was weak, and exports were under pressure [65]. Consumption: Policy Effectiveness - In May 2025, the consumer market rebounded strongly, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4132.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The "trade - in" policy was effective, and service consumption and new consumption became new drivers. However, consumer confidence needed to be strengthened [78]. Real Estate: Weak and Differentiated - The real estate market continued its weak recovery and deep differentiation. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72. Real estate investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, and the sales side showed regional differentiation and year-on-year improvement. Policy - driven market structure optimization was underway, but real estate enterprises still faced financial pressure [89]. Appendix - In May 2025, the national economy ran smoothly under pressure, with stable growth in production and demand, stable employment, and the growth of new drivers. Industrial production, service industry growth, market sales, fixed - asset investment, foreign trade, employment, and consumer prices all showed certain characteristics [112].

Group 1 - The "Two Heavy" and "Two New" policies are crucial for expanding domestic demand and supporting economic recovery in China [1][2] - The Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 emphasized the need for greater support for "Two Heavy" projects and the implementation of "Two New" policies [1] - The investigation team, led by Su Hui, Chairman of the Taiwan Democratic Self-Government League, conducted research in Guangxi and Shanghai to assess the effectiveness of these policies [1][2] Group 2 - The investigation team engaged with local enterprises to understand the impact of the "Two Heavy" and "Two New" policies on innovation and project construction [2] - Recommendations were made to focus on "investment in materials" and "investment in people" to enhance industrial innovation and consumer capacity [2] - Guangxi is positioned as a key area for promoting cooperation with ASEAN, leveraging its geographical advantages to expand domestic demand [3] Group 3 - Shanghai's economy has shown a positive trend, with its GDP surpassing 5 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable condition for expanding domestic demand [5] - The investigation team suggested that Shanghai should explore more precise measures to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency [4][5] - The team plans to compile findings from their research to provide actionable insights for promoting high-quality development and expanding domestic demand [5]