Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent increase in spot gold prices, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, driven by expectations of the U.S. government shutdown ending and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5][18] - Spot gold rose by 2.84% to $4,114.96 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.76% to $4,120.60 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the gold market [1][18] - The article notes that the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with rebar and iron ore prices slightly increasing, while coking coal and glass prices declined [1] Group 2 - In international news, the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill aimed at ending a 40-day government shutdown, which may lead to the resumption of normal government data releases [5] - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on market liquidity and investor sentiment, suggesting that the resolution may alleviate some of the liquidity risks previously heightened by the shutdown [18] - The article also mentions the release of new policies by the State Council of China to promote private investment, which includes measures to encourage private capital participation in urban infrastructure projects [6] Group 3 - The article provides insights into the oil market, noting a 1.32% decline in SC night market prices, attributed to Saudi Arabia's significant reduction of official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in response to increased supply from OPEC+ producers [3][12] - The copper market is highlighted, with tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, while the overall demand remains weak due to sluggish performance in the real estate sector [3][19] - The article mentions the performance of the shipping industry, particularly the European shipping index, which saw a decline, indicating pressure on freight rates due to insufficient price increases from major shipping companies [2][30]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% [2] - A total of 3,376 stocks rose, with 92 hitting the daily limit up, while 1,957 stocks declined [3][4] - The total trading volume reached 21,943.71 billion, with a trading volume of 140,007.9 million [4] Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector experienced a collective surge, with nearly 20 stocks, including China Duty Free Group and Shede Spirits, hitting the daily limit up [5] - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, marking a shift from decline to growth, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year increase [5] Financial Sector Activity - Financial stocks, including Northeast Securities, saw significant gains, with Northeast Securities hitting the daily limit up [8] - Other notable financial stocks included GF Securities and Dongxing Securities, which rose by 3.74% and 3.10% respectively [8] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector continued its strong performance, with companies like Luxi Chemical and Chengxing Chemical hitting the daily limit up [9] - Notable gainers included Dongyue Silicon Materials, which rose by 14.94%, and other chemical stocks showing increases around 10% [9] Storage Chip Sector Dynamics - The storage chip sector was notably active, with companies such as Dawi Co. and Wanrun Technology hitting the daily limit up [10] - Key performers included Shen Gong Co., which rose by 20%, and other stocks in the sector showing significant gains [10] Downward Adjustments - The robotics sector faced adjustments, with Zhejiang Rongtai hitting the daily limit down [11] - Other companies in the sector also experienced declines, indicating a potential correction phase [11] Global Market Influences - Positive global market sentiment was noted, with major Asian indices like the Seoul Composite Index rising over 3% and the Nikkei 225 Index increasing over 1% [11] - The U.S. market also showed signs of recovery, with pre-market indices trending upwards [13] Trade Relations Impact - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations, including the suspension of investigations into China's shipbuilding industry, contributed to market optimism [14][15] - The U.S. government nearing the end of a shutdown also provided a positive backdrop for market performance, with potential funding agreements being discussed [16]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated and closed higher. The current 2025/26 annual cotton prices in Xinjiang are mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the inventory pressure is not significant. With the Sino - US trade in a phased easing period, the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,825 yuan per metric ton, down 16 yuan per metric ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang were in the range of 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The trading of pure cotton yarn was lukewarm, with high - count yarns selling better than low - count yarns. The production and sales in the grey fabric spot market were sluggish, with few large orders and difficult access to export orders [7] - **International Market**: The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on November 4. The federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the USDA data has not been updated [8] - **Market Outlook**: The acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the short - term driving force is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and some cotton merchants continue to lower the spot sales basis. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is still some resilience in rigid demand, and the inventory of downstream finished products is not high. The Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, a total of 1,018 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 9,218,299 bales, totaling 2.0819 million tons, an increase of 91,600 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 9,133,907 bales, totaling 2.063 million tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 51,656 bales, totaling 11,500 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is to observe the 4000 - dollar mark's long - short game due to short - term pressure from a strong dollar index and a 10% high - level retracement, with a mid - term view of oscillation and a reference view of waiting and seeing [1][3] - For copper, the long - term view is positive, considering the tight supply situation after the price correction. The mid - term view is upward, and the short - term is to pay attention to overseas COMEX copper inventory and domestic policy implementation [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Situation**: Last week, the gold price dropped to $4000 and then oscillated, with the domestic Shanghai gold stabilizing around 900 yuan. The short - term gold price has retreated about 10% from its high [3] - **Driving Factors**: The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly pressured the gold price. After the October Fed meeting, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts decreased, leading to the continuous strengthening of the US dollar index [3] Copper - **Price Situation**: At the end of October, the main copper contract reached a record high of 89,000 yuan/ton and then declined. The price has fallen back to around the key support level of 85,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Driving Factors for the Correction**: - Macro - sentiment change: The previous macro - level positives such as Fed rate cuts and new Sino - US tariff agreements have been digested by the market, and the sentiment has returned to rationality [4] - US dollar strengthening: The rebound of the US dollar index has made copper more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand [4] - Technical pressure: After the price reached a record high, it triggered profit - taking by long - position holders [4] - **Future Outlook**: The tight supply situation has limited further price drops. It is necessary to continue to monitor overseas COMEX copper inventory and the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" policies [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance. For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "rise", "rise", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **View**: Intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the gold price weakened again. The main contract price of Shanghai gold futures dropped from around 920 yuan to below 910 yuan. The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly pressured the gold price. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, leading to a continuous strengthening of the US dollar index. The New York gold price fell below $4000 again, and the technical support at $3900 can be continuously monitored [3]. Copper (CU) - **View**: Intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the domestic macro - economic situation weakened, and the copper price decreased significantly with a reduction in positions. Short - term bulls had a strong willingness to close their positions. Overseas, after the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper prices dropped significantly. The Fed's hawkish stance and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations led to a rebound in the US dollar index, which is negative for the copper price. In addition, the copper price has risen significantly since late September and is facing pressure at historical highs in the short term, so bulls have a strong willingness to close their positions. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铝增仓上行 1. 产业动态 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价上先抑后扬，午后国内宏观氛围回暖，有色板块整体上 行。产业层面，周一电解铜小幅累库。短期沪铜主力期价连续两日在 10 日均线触底回升，可持续关注该位置技术支撑。 沪铝 今日铝价增仓上行明显，尤其是午后，主力期价尾盘站上 2.06 万 关口。铝受国内宏观影响相对较大，近期中美贸易缓和叠加国内反内 卷预期再度上升，利好铝价。产业层面，周一电解铝小幅累库。技术 上，关注 2024 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities by buying on dips after stabilization [6]. - Medium - to long - term, due to factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue rising. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 31, 2025, compared with October 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.9%, London silver spot rose 2.6%, COMEX gold rose 0.9%, COMEX silver rose 2.1%, AU2512 rose 1.1%, AG2512 rose 1.7%, AU (T + D) rose 1.1%, and AG (T + D) rose 1.6% [5]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios, from October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 16.3%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 33.8%, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 12.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.2%, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 10.1%, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 4.2% [5]. 2. Position Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11%, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85%, COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97%, COMEX silver non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% [5]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.41%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.20%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.14% [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.19%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the VIX increased by 3.13%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.26%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.98% [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 921.92 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.41% to 11441 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - The decline in market risk appetite, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the intensification of local geopolitical situations have led to a recovery in safe - haven demand, boosting the stabilization and rebound of precious metal prices. Although Fed Chairman Powell said a December interest - rate cut is far from certain, the market still generally predicts it as the baseline scenario, providing support for the precious metal market. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the strong performance of the US dollar index, the internal differences among Fed officials, and the marginal easing of the US government shutdown, the short - term upward space for a unilateral trend in precious metals may be relatively limited [6]. 7. Medium - to Long - Term Outlook - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will likely cause the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices to continue rising [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, due to the internal policy differences of the Fed, trade easing signals, and the US government shutdown situation, the short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper price has potential, and long - positions can be held with a support level of 86,000 [4]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and the upper resistance is the high point in November 2024 [5]. - Alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space and mainly weak operation [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for the time being [7]. - LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with both long and short factors coexisting [9]. - The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin prices are expected to be short - sold on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the focus is on inventory reduction and policy increments [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on policy news, and it is advisable to go long with a light position and pay attention to policy signals [13]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise with a limited increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream polysilicon production cuts in November [14]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand for both is acceptable [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - For fuel oil, there are opportunities to layout the low - level spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt has weak demand in the "peak season", and the medium - to - long - term de - stocking slowdown has limited support for prices [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. - Urea prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, it is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX and PTA are expected to continue the reverse spread strategy, and attention should be paid to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and prices may follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices are expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - For natural rubber and synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda ash is expected to be short - sold at high prices in the long term and fluctuate with the upstream and macro - sentiment in the short term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, pay attention to the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks and continue to be weak [39]. - For soybean No.1, pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - For live pigs, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - For sugar, pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apple prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - For stock indices, focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent December contract down 0.94%. Voluntary - production - cut 8 countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [2]. - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has a mixed situation, and the low - sulfur market is weak. There are opportunities for low - level spread layout between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt: Northern construction is gradually stopping, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, with limited medium - to - long - term support [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices recovered some losses. The Shanghai copper has potential in terms of volume and price [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum continued to be strong last Friday, and the short - term trend is upward [5]. - Alumina: It is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below [8]. - Lead: Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9]. - Nickel & stainless steel: The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin: It is advisable to short - sell on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to de - stocking and policy increments [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has risen significantly, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [13]. - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream production cuts [14]. - Iron ore: The supply is high, and the demand support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke & coking coal: Prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon & ferrosilicon: Affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand is acceptable [19][20]. Chemicals - Urea: Prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol: It is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stabilize [26]. - Pure benzene: It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to inventory accumulation [27]. - Styrene: Prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene & plastic & propylene: Prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC & caustic soda: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX & PTA: Continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to continue to accumulate inventory and follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber & bottle - chip: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & soybean meal: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - Soybean oil & palm oil: Pay attention to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed & rapeseed oil: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks [39]. - Soybean No.1: Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn: Prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - Live pigs: There is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - Eggs: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apples: Prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. Others - Container shipping index (European line): In a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - Wood: Prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: Prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - Stock indices: Focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures: Expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 中美贸易缓和美联储偏鹰 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产，资金关注度 快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周金价震荡下行，10 月美联储议息会议后，金价有所 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 首先， 中国将暂缓10月出台的稀土等物项的出口管制新规，相应的美方暂停9月29日出台的出口管制50% 股权穿透性规则， 这一点上是有些超预期的 。 | | 中美制裁和反制措施一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 时间 | 美国政策 | 当前状态 | 中国反制政策 | | 2025/3/4 | 征收20%芬太尼关税 | 10%生效,10%取消 | 对部分能源、农产品征收10-15%的反制关税:将美国 实体列入出口管制名单和不可靠实体清单 | | 2025/4/10 | 征收125%对等关税 | 91%取消,24%暂 | 征收125%全面反制关税:将美国实体列入出口管制名 单:加强稀土出口管制;对美医用CT球管等反倾销调 | | | | 缓,10%生效 | 査 | | 2025/4/17 | 对中国船舶加收港口服务费 | 暂缓 | 对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费;反制韩国造船企业5家 | | | | | 美国子公司 | | 2025/9/29 | 发布 ...