分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 均衡配置成长与价值风格，防范风格切换 ——月度策略 相关报告 《月度策略：市场波动加大，均衡配置成长与 价值——月度策略》 2025-09-05 《月度策略：建议关注成长与价值轮动带来的 机会——月度策略》 2025-08-07 《月度策略：稳健前行，建议关注消费与红利 资产——月度策略》 2025-07-07 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共21页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 09 日 联系人：李智 ⚫ 宏观方面。从 9 月份公布的经济数据看，当前宏观经济处于"弱 复苏、低通胀"的阶段，政策层面以稳增长与防风险为主。在此背 景下，货币财政政策维持宽松基调，流动性环境保持充裕，叠加市 场对经济企稳的预期逐步形成，从资金供给与情绪层面共同为新增 资金入场提供了有利支撑。 ⚫ 政策层面。9 月 11 日，国务院印 ...

Core Insights - The forum highlighted the challenges faced by the special asset industry, including rising total volume and structural transformation, pricing imbalances, and shrinking profitability, necessitating a shift from disposal thinking to operational thinking [1][4] - The establishment of a special asset expert mechanism in 2020 has yielded significant results, with the recent forum recognizing new experts in the field [2] - Discussions at the forum focused on the protection of financial creditors during corporate bankruptcy restructuring and the revitalization of distressed real estate [3][4] Group 1 - The special asset management department of Ping An Bank emphasized the need for collaborative efforts to create impactful benchmark projects [1] - The forum featured expert presentations on the new developments and trends in China's restructuring system, highlighting the value of restructuring from multiple perspectives [2] - The challenges in the special asset market during low growth, low inflation, and low interest rate periods were discussed, with a focus on cooperation and innovation as pathways to success [3] Group 2 - The forum included discussions on the balance between creditor protection and corporate rescue in bankruptcy law revisions [3] - Practical case studies on bankruptcy and real estate revitalization were analyzed, providing valuable insights for future project handling [3] - The overall theme of the forum revolved around innovation and collaboration to address new challenges and opportunities in the special asset industry [4]

Group 1 - The market continues to focus on high-capacity pricing sectors, with the index strength approaching levels seen in previous bull markets [1] - In July, the profit decline of industrial enterprises in China narrowed, with marginal increases in profit margins for manufacturing and public utilities [1] - The U.S. core PCE inflation rate for July met expectations at 2.9%, with an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 [1] Group 2 - The asset allocation indicators show that the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has eased from historical extremes, with the overall A-share index PE at 22.1 [2] - Market trading indicators, such as turnover rate and transaction volume, have significantly increased, indicating heightened market activity [2] - Investor behavior shows a decrease in buyback scale while the main capital flow has increased compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - The current market rally is characterized by structural features, with TMT leading the gains, contributing significantly to the overall market performance [3] - AI has not yet reached an extreme overheating state, with TMT's contribution to the overall A-share market remaining below historical highs [3] - The market capitalization contribution from leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Ningde Times has shown significant growth, indicating potential for further gains [3] Group 4 - The market is in an upward trend, with a positive profit effect expected to attract mid-term incremental capital [6] - The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are rising, which may enhance global risk appetite [6] - The industry allocation model continues to recommend sectors benefiting from policy support, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and new energy [6] Group 5 - The company reported a revenue of 81.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 20.6 billion yuan, down 8.0% [17] - The company is actively expanding into data center and solar lighting businesses, leveraging its R&D capabilities [17] - The company maintains a strong position in the consumer electrical sector and is exploring new markets, with profit forecasts adjusted for 2025-2027 [17] Group 6 - The company achieved a revenue of 334.91 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 7.1%, with a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, up 17.28% [20] - The company is enhancing its upstream supply chain and actively developing new fiber materials, with significant capacity expansion planned [20] - The company anticipates a recovery in demand for polyester filament as the market enters the peak season [20] Group 7 - The company reported a revenue of 42.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.2%, but a net profit increase of 22% [22] - The company is focusing on technological upgrades in its traditional gear products for new energy vehicles, aiming for market share growth [22] - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on understanding the current low inflation and providing an outlook for inflation and the bond market in the second half of the year. It points out that the low inflation is mainly due to a negative output gap and high real interest rates, which suppress aggregate demand. Under the "anti - involution" policy, prices are expected to rise moderately at a low level in the second half of the year, with CPI and PPI showing different trends. In the bond market, the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment provides support, but there are also upward pressure on interest rates and uncertainties [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 How to Understand the Current Low Inflation? - **Negative Output Gap**: China's GDP growth rate has a gap with the potential growth rate, the youth unemployment rate is high, industrial capacity utilization is low, and CPI and PPI are running at a low level, indicating that aggregate demand is lower than aggregate supply [2][18]. - **High Real Interest Rates**: Although the central bank has been lowering the nominal interest rate, the real interest rate has risen due to extremely low inflation and GDP deflator, which inhibits aggregate demand and forms a "passive tightening" effect [3][22]. 3.2 Current Characteristics of the Inflation Market - **Widening CPI - PPI Scissors**: In July 2025, the CPI - PPI scissors reached 3.6 percentage points, reflecting problems such as poor price transmission and unbalanced economic recovery, and squeezing the profits of downstream manufacturing enterprises [4][26]. - **Core CPI Reaching a New High**: In July 2025, the core CPI reached a new high since March 2024, becoming the main support for CPI, which shows positive changes in price operation and the effectiveness of policies [4]. - **"Anti - Involution" Not Driving PPI Upward**: "Anti - involution" policies have promoted the rise of commodity futures prices, but PPI has not increased. This may be due to the difference in pricing logic between futures prices and PPI, and the problem of insufficient terminal demand [4][34]. 3.3 Outlook for Inflation and the Bond Market under "Anti - Involution" - **Inflation Outlook**: In the second half of the year, CPI is expected to rise moderately, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of 0.1% and 0.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around 0% for the whole year. PPI is expected to maintain a trend of volatile recovery with narrowing year - on - year decline, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of - 2.7% and - 1.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around - 2% for the whole year, with a low possibility of turning positive within the year [5][41][51]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment, the bond market is supported by the fundamental logic and the central bank's monetary easing. However, the warming of the equity market and the "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" policies may bring upward pressure on the interest rate center. The impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market depends on whether the price increase expectation can be supported by real demand [6][57].

Group 1: US-Russia Meeting - The meeting between Trump and Putin marks the first face-to-face encounter since June 2021 and the first visit of a Russian president to the US since September 2015 [3] - The small-scale talks lasted approximately 2 hours and 40 minutes, followed by a joint press conference [3] - Putin expressed that US-Russia relations have reached a low point since the Cold War, which is detrimental to both Russia and the world [5] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imported steel, semiconductors, and chips, with potential rates as high as 200% to 300% for semiconductors [8][9] - Following the announcement, semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant drop, with the sector index falling over 2% [9] - The initial lower tariff rates are intended to encourage companies to establish manufacturing in the US, with subsequent increases planned [8] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market surged on the 15th, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index reaching new highs [11] - The International Monetary Fund raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting improved confidence in China's economic development [12] - The market rally was attributed to bullish sentiment and increased trading volume, with non-bank financials leading the gains [12] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to positively impact corporate profits across various sectors, including traditional and emerging industries [14] - Analysts suggest that the current low inflation environment may lead to a downward trend in real interest rates, enhancing the valuation of A-shares [14][15] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to address economic pressures and uncertainties in the external environment [16]

Core Viewpoint - The primary goal of monetary policy in the second half of the year remains economic growth and full employment, with potential for monetary easing to exceed expectations [1] Group 1: External Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again in September, creating favorable conditions for monetary easing [1] - The U.S. imposing additional tariffs on China may impact Chinese exports, potentially leading to a temporary slowdown in economic growth and increased employment pressure [1] Group 2: Internal Factors - The economy is likely to remain in a low inflation environment in the second half of the year, with real interest rates still relatively high, indicating a need for further reductions [1] - A policy interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points is anticipated in the third quarter, which will guide the downward adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and further lower loan and deposit rates [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for August, including companies such as SF Holding (顺丰控股) and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (恒瑞医药) as key investment opportunities [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that low inflation in China is primarily influenced by domestic demand, overseas input factors, and "involution competition," which affects industrial profitability and household income expectations [2][5] Market Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3583.31, reflecting a 0.66% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.46% to 11041.56 [3] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.39% to 4070.70, indicating a positive trend in the broader market [3] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry showed a strong performance with a 3.06% increase, while retail and oil sectors experienced declines of 0.46% and 0.36%, respectively [4] - The machinery and equipment sector also performed well with a 1.93% increase, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [4] Macroeconomic Analysis - In the first half of 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.0% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous months [5] - The report notes a significant correlation between the price trends of production materials and consumer prices, suggesting that weak production material prices are a key factor in the current lack of consumer price growth [5][6] Fixed Income Insights - The report discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more open stance on interest rate cuts due to lower-than-expected non-farm employment data and a slowdown in nominal consumption growth [8][10] - The analysis indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing a cooling effect from restrictive policies, which may lead to an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [9][10]

Group 1: Economic Overview - China's retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, consistent with the growth rate from January to May[18] - The average year-on-year growth rate of retail sales from June 2024 to June 2025 was 4.1%, indicating an overall upward trend[18] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate during the same period was only 0.1%, highlighting a divergence between the volume and price of consumer spending[18] Group 2: Low Inflation Factors - Low inflation is primarily influenced by weak domestic demand, external input factors, and "involutionary competition" in the market[1] - The correlation coefficient between the year-on-year growth rates of production materials and living materials, after shifting the production materials curve back by 10 months, is 0.7, indicating a strong relationship[22] - The year-on-year decline in profits for coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and black metal mining industries was 53.0%, 11.5%, and 36.2% respectively, contributing to a 5.5 percentage point drag on industrial profits in the first half of 2025[3] Group 3: Impact of Low Inflation - As of June 2025, the average yield on ten-year government bonds was 1.66%, down 44 basis points from September 2024, while the actual interest rate rose slightly to 2.84%, up 12 basis points[3] - The weak inflation level has interfered with the downward path of actual interest rates, limiting the reduction in financing costs for the real economy[46] - The correlation coefficient between urban residents' future income confidence index and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial profits from 2020 to 2024 is 0.5, indicating a positive correlation[3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include persistent inflation in developed economies, complex geopolitical situations, and slow recovery of expectations in the real estate sector[4] - The significant decline in real estate investment has negatively impacted construction industry investment growth, further affecting demand in the building materials sector[37]

Core Viewpoint - The South African Reserve Bank has indicated an opportunity to lock in low inflation and pave the way for interest rate reductions [1] Group 1 - The central bank's statement suggests a favorable economic environment for controlling inflation [1] - The potential for lowering interest rates could stimulate economic growth and investment [1]

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The current commodity futures market is driven by a combination of "strong expectations," "weak realities," and "speculative demand," with PPI expectations for April 2026 turning positive[2] - As of June 2025, the CPI increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target, while PPI fell to a new low of -3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth[2] - Recent commodity price movements include coking coal surpassing 1200 CNY/ton, lithium carbonate exceeding 80000 CNY/ton, rebar breaking 3300 CNY/ton, and live pig prices exceeding 15000 CNY[2] Group 2: Policy Implications and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to establish a high-level market system and correct local government behaviors, rather than directly targeting price increases[4] - The current low inflation environment is influenced by supply-side factors, structural adjustments, and global industrial roles, validating China's manufacturing advantages[2] - The speculative demand has reignited due to the combination of strong expectations and weak realities, leading to increased price volatility in the commodity market[2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The commodity market currently reflects a positive price recovery expectation, with potential for PPI to turn positive by April 2026 if current price levels are maintained[4] - The report highlights risks including unexpected downturns in real estate, insufficient policy implementation, and underwhelming effects of new real estate policies[4] - The "anti-involution" policy is not necessarily synonymous with rising prices, as it focuses on optimizing supply-demand dynamics rather than broad monetary expansion[4]