"今年1月至5月PS行业盈利表现良好，生产企业积极复工复产后稳定运行，国产PS供应持续增量；成本 接连下跌的过程中，PS跟跌下行，价格优势逐步显现，出口企业积极开拓海外市场，推动5月单月出口 量创历史新高。虽然出口量绝对体量增幅有限，但一定程度的缓解了通用料市场阶段性的供应压 力。"刘丽分析。 由于需求改善不足，供应商难有效去库，一定程度拖累PS价格下跌。 随着高端化、节能化以及智能化的转型升级，2025年白电行业保持着相对稳健的发展趋势，作为PS的 主要下游消费领域，年内尤其在上半年表现出对PS市场的有效需求助力。然而出口与政策影响，海外 需求短期承压，仅部分龙头企业保持平稳态势，"以旧换新"需求透支等导致内需边际走弱；因此下半年 白电领域需求改善不及预期的背景下，PS中高端资源出货受阻，拖累市场价格下行调整。 关税政策扰动、补贴政策透支未来需求以及消费意愿及能力受阻等多方因素影响，2025年PS终端需求 整体改善不足，逐步向上负反馈至产业链各个环节。同时，新产能释放、争取市场份额等助力，PS供 应体量继续扩大，供需结构持续承压。当前PS行业成本不断下移形成下行拖累，2025年PS价格水平连 创新低。 "成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall, the finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end but constrained by inventory at the upper end, expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption, with the risk of negative feedback due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - Iron ore prices will continue to be weak in the short term. Macroeconomic data in the US and China are weakening, and overseas risk events are reducing market drivers. Fundamentally, supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is weak [20]. - Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have been replenishing stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally. In the medium - to - long term, policies restricting coking coal supply and winter storage may affect prices [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range as they return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment fades, but are supported by costs [45]. - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. - Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down from 3044 yuan/ton on November 10. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down from 3252 yuan/ton on November 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3228 yuan/ton, up from 3223 yuan/ton on November 10. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down from 3270 yuan/ton on November 10 [8][10]. - **Spreads**: On November 11, 2025, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, the same as on November 10; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also the same as on November 10 [17]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from November 10 and 12.5 yuan from November 4 [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, down 2.14 tons week - on - week and 7.32 tons month - on - month. The 45 - port inventory was 14898.83 tons, up 356.35 tons week - on - week and 874.33 tons month - on - month [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10 [34]. - **Market Situation**: Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have replenished stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally [30]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan from November 10. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from November 10 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan from November 10. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from November 10 [47]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1292 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1215 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from November 10 [55]. - **Market Situation**: Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1184 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1261 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from November 10 [81]. - **Market Situation**: Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, with weak price drivers. It may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. Strategy: BZ2603 should follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices [1]. - The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drivers are weak. EB12 price rebounds should be treated with a short - selling approach [1]. LLDPE and PP - The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US frictions and US sanctions on refineries [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may be strong in the short - term but has limited rebound space. PTA is boosted in the short - term but also has limited rebound space. Ethylene glycol has a weak long - term supply - demand structure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip also have limited rebound space [5]. Methanol - The price of methanol may continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the overseas plant operation stability, sanctions on ship clearance efficiency, and the port de - stocking rhythm [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - In the short - term, the price of caustic soda is weak, and it can be short - sold. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summaries by Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4% from the previous day. WTI crude oil (December) was $61.79/barrel, up 5.6% [1]. - CFR China Naphtha was $682/ton, up 1.5%. Pure benzene - naphtha was -$119/ton, down 8.8% [1]. Related Prices and Spreads of Styrene - On October 23, styrene in East China spot was 6550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. EB futures 2512 was 6566 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [1]. Downstream Cash Flows - On October 23, phenol cash flow was - 390 yuan/ton, down 15.7% from the previous day. Aniline cash flow was 1021 yuan/ton, down 6.4% [1]. Inventory - As of October 20, pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.00 million tons, up 10.0% from October 13. Styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 20.25 million tons, up 3.1% [1]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - From October 9 to October 16, the Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.2%, down 0.9%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate was 75.5%, down 3.8% [1]. LLDPE and PP Futures and Spot Prices - On October 23, L2601 closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [3]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the PE device operating rate was 81.5%, down 0.37%. The PP device operating rate was 75.9%, down 2.9% [3]. Inventory - As of the latest data, PE enterprise inventory was 51.5 million tons, down 2.81%. PP enterprise inventory was 63.9 million tons, down 5.92% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4%. CFR China PX was $812/ton, up 1.8% [5]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On October 23, POY150/48 price was 6360 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. POY150/48 cash flow was - 2 yuan/ton, down 89 [5]. Operating Rates - From the previous week to the current week, the Asian PX operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.9%. The PTA operating rate was 76.7%, up 3.1% [5]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On October 23, MA2601 closed at 2292 yuan/ton, up 1.37%. The Taicang basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 61.82% [6]. Inventory - As of the latest data, methanol enterprise inventory was 36.036%, up 0.13%. Methanol port inventory was 151.2 million tons, up 1.40% [6]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 75.85%, down 0.91%. The downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 78.1%, down 9.48% [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On October 22, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 was 4719 yuan/ton, up 0.4% [8]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - As of October 16, FOB East China port caustic soda was $380/ton, down 5.0%. The PVC export profit was 19 yuan/ton, down 81.5% [8]. Supply (Operating Rates and Profits) - From October 10 to October 17, the caustic soda industry operating rate was 85.5%, down 3.9%. The PVC total operating rate was 75.1%, down 7.0% [8]. Demand (Downstream Operating Rates) - From October 10 to October 17, the alumina industry operating rate was not available, and the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 88.6%, down 1.1% [8]. Inventory - As of October 16, the liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.5 million tons, down 1.1%. The PVC total social inventory was 55.6 million tons, down 0.1% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - For the polyolefin industry, the overall macro - environment is pessimistic, and the cost and supply - demand situation are weak. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure. The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP have limited upside space due to new device production pressure and lackluster demand [2]. - In the polyester industry, PX is expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply contraction and demand support. PTA may be boosted in the short - term. EG is under pressure due to inventory build - up. Short - fiber prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip prices follow the cost side [4]. - Regarding pure benzene and styrene, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. They may follow oil prices in the short - term [5]. - For PVC and caustic soda, short - term caustic soda prices are weak due to supply increase and general demand, while long - term there is demand support. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and the short - term disk has stopped falling [6]. - In the methanol industry, the price may continue to oscillate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation, port de - stocking, and overseas gas - limiting expectations [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 increased. The price differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed. The prices of some spot products such as East China PP wire drawing and North China LDPE film also rose [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Polyester Industry - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On October 22, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed. The cash flows of some products decreased [4]. - **PX - Related**: Some PX devices had unplanned maintenance or load reduction, and a new PTA device was planned to be put into production. PX supply was expected to shrink, and demand was supported [4]. - **PTA - Related**: As some PTA devices restored their loads and new devices were about to be put into production, the PTA spot basis continued to weaken [4]. - **EG - Related**: Domestic ethylene glycol devices started up and increased their loads, and the supply was sufficient. It was expected to build up inventory in October [4]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply was high, and demand was supported. Bottle - chip was in the traditional off - season, and demand was weak [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the prices of some products such as CFR China pure benzene and BZ futures 2603 increased. The spreads between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories changed, and the operating rates of industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain also changed [5]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Pure benzene supply was expected to be loose due to new capacity and weak demand. Styrene supply was expected to be high, and demand was limited [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the prices of SH2601 and V2601 increased, while SH2509 decreased. The price differences between SH2509 - 2601 and V2509 - V2601 changed [6]. - **Export and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC export prices and profits changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Caustic soda demand was weak in the short - term but had long - term support. PVC supply - demand pressure was large, and the market was weak [6]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the closing prices of MA2601 decreased, while MA2605 increased. The basis and regional price differences changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol inventories such as enterprise, port, and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Overseas methanol production decreased, and there were expectations of supply reduction. Port inventory was high, and demand was weak in the traditional downstream [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The supply of PE is increasing steadily, with significant profit improvement, continuous increase in the operating rate, and limited planned maintenance. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year also brings impacts, highlighting long - term supply pressure. PP's valuation has been significantly repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil. Although there are more recent overhauls in PP, the new device commissioning pressure in October is large, and the demand side lacks bright performance. The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Overall, the macro - environment is pessimistic, and the prices of PP and PE face pressure [2]. Methanol - At the port, due to sanctions, some warehouses do not accept sanctioned vessels, increasing the willingness to hold spot goods. Coupled with supply - side disturbances, the port basis has strengthened significantly. Overseas production has declined, and some devices have stopped. In late October, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction caused by overseas gas restrictions. Inland supply has a certain bottom - support for prices due to a relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak. Overall, the price may continue to fluctuate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - restriction expectations [4]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, although there are device overhauls, there are also new production capacity commissioning expectations, and the domestic supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The downstream demand support is limited, and the inventory in East China ports may continue to decline. The price drive is weak in October. For styrene, under the double pressure of inventory and industry profit, some devices are under overhaul, but new devices are about to be commissioned, and the overall supply will remain high. The demand side support is also limited, and the price drive is weak. In the short - term, the price is still under pressure [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has shrunk compared to expectations due to unexpected overhauls or load reductions of some devices, while the demand has increased. However, overall, the supply - demand is still weak, and the price is in a weak oscillation. For PTA, the spot basis continues to weaken, but the downward space is limited. The absolute price is also in a weak oscillation. For short - fiber, the price is supported in the short - term, but the cost - side support is weak. For bottle - chips, it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and it follows the cost - side fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is abundant, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with the upper price limit under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the demand support from the aluminum industry is weak in the short - term, but there may be long - term demand support. The supply is increasing in the short - term, and the price is weak. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure is large, the fundamental contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price is weak. The cost - side provides bottom support, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summary by Catalogs Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6883 yuan/ton on October 21, up 4 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day. PP2601 closed at 6283 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.27%. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.48%, and that of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 24.71% [2]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit unclear), and social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 (unit unclear), and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 [2]. Operating Rate - The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26% to 44.9%. The PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% to 78.2%, the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.9 [2]. Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2268 yuan/ton on October 21, up 2 yuan or 0.09%. The basis of Taicang decreased by 50.00% to - 33 [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33% to 36.09%, and port inventory decreased by 3.36% to 149.1 million tons [4]. Operating Rate - The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86% to 76.55%, and the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 2.28% to 73.7%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 86.28% [4]. Benzene - Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) decreased by 3.5% to 5450 yuan/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - Styrene East China spot price was 6440 yuan/ton on October 21, up 70 yuan or 1.1%. The EB11 - EB12 spread increased by 81.9% [6]. Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 10.0% to 0.90 million tons, and styrene inventory increased by 3.1% to 20.25 million tons [6]. Operating Rate - The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 79.2%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8% to 75.5% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Price - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $540/ton, up $3 or 0.6% [7]. PX - Related Price and Spread - CFR China PX was at $784/ton on October 21, up $1 or 0.1%. The PX - naphtha spread was $244/ton, down $2 or 0.8% [7]. PTA - Related Price and Spread - PTA East China spot price was 4320 yuan/ton on October 21, up 5 yuan or 0.1%. The PTA spot processing fee was 122 yuan/ton, up 1.8% [7]. MEG - MEG East China spot price was 4075 yuan/ton on October 21, down 25 yuan or 0.6%. MEG port inventory increased by 7.0% to 57.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rate - The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 78.0%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.3% to 74.4% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price remained unchanged at 2560.0 yuan/ton. V2509 was at 5125.0 yuan/ton on October 21, down 10 yuan or 0.2% [8]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $380/ton on October 16, down $20 or - 5.0%. The export profit of PVC decreased by 81.5% to 19.0 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate - The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 85.5%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0% to 75.1% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 19.5, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.1% to 55.6 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global copper supply - demand structure will be further tightened due to the accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry, copper prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][13]. - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. Although there are some improvements in the supply side, the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens, and it is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. - The aluminum industry chain presents a mixed situation. Aluminum is slightly bullish but it is recommended to wait and see; alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cast aluminum alloy can be short - term bullish [6][14]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and a short - term bullish strategy is recommended, while paying attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts [7]. - Lead shows a range - bound upward movement. With the increase in supply after the end of maintenance and the existence of pre - holiday stocking demand, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuate repeatedly. Nickel is affected by mine - end disturbances, and stainless steel is supported by cost. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both [10][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest rate cuts. Further economic data changes need to be monitored to see if it can confirm the preventive interest rate cuts and their effectiveness, which will be beneficial to the later trend of non - ferrous metals [11]. - The US announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1st. - The preliminary values of the Eurozone's September manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs showed mixed performance. The US September Markit manufacturing and service PMIs declined but remained in the expansion range, with prices easing. - China's one - year and five - year LPRs in September remained unchanged. The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to an independent stance, taking into account both domestic and foreign factors, and is currently supportive and moderately loose [11]. 3.2 Metal - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - An accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine has suspended production, and the company expects a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. The earliest recovery to pre - accident production levels will be in 2027. - In the medium - to long - term, the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and the expansion of the US manufacturing industry are positive for copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term support range of 80,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton. An option strategy of selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options can be considered [4][13]. 3.2.2 Zinc - Zinc shows a range - bound trend. The supply increase is gradually materializing, and the demand in the peak season is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to whether the export window opens. The support range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips [5][13]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: Slightly bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 20,200 - 20,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,300 - 21,700 yuan/ton. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The support range is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term bullish. The support range is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][14]. 3.2.4 Tin - In a situation of weak supply and demand, with tight supply due to issues such as ore shortages and delayed production resumption in Myanmar. The demand recovery is limited. It is recommended to be short - term bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [7][14]. 3.2.5 Lead - With the end of maintenance, the supply of primary lead will increase. There is pre - holiday stocking demand, but the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to close long positions on rallies, with a support range of 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,400 - 17,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: Affected by mine - end disturbances in Indonesia, prices fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. It shows a range - bound trend, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [10][17]. 3.3 Market Performance - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,960 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase; zinc at 21,860 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; aluminum at 20,705 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; etc. [18]. - **Spot Prices**: The Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price was 80,130 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price was 21,810 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease; etc. [21][23]. 3.4 Position Analysis - For different non - ferrous metal futures contracts such as沪铜 (CU2511),氧化铝 (AO2601),沪镍 (NI2511), etc., the net long - short positions, their changes, and influencing factors are presented. For example, in沪铜 (CU2511), the main short positions are relatively strong, and the net long - short position difference is - 718, with an increase in long - position main forces [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain and Other Analysis - The report also provides various charts related to the non - ferrous metal industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price comparisons, and arbitrage, option - related data for different metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, etc. For example, charts of copper inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, and copper option historical volatility are provided [25][28][78].

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (September 15, 2025): Slow Recovery in Peak - Season Demand, Weak Performance in the Black Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, last week, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken, with the peak - season characteristics not obvious. The market was disturbed by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery speed. For iron ore, the supply tightened last week, while the demand rebounded significantly, and the supply - demand structure improved notably. In the short term, the market may still trade on steel mills' resumption of production and replenishment, and the ore price may maintain a current oscillating and strengthening trend compared with steel products [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products 1.1 Price - The spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of rebar 01 contract dropped by 16 to 3127, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 to 3220 yuan/ton [5][15] 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production increased significantly, while electric furnace production continued to decline. The utilization rate of blast furnace production capacity and daily iron - water output increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.48 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.9 tons [5][18][26] 1.3 Demand - The recovery of building material demand in the peak season was slow, and the domestic demand pressure for plates remained. From September 3rd to 9th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 3.16% week - on - week but decreased by 16.44% year - on - year. The domestic demand for plates was still weak due to factors such as the contraction of manufacturing orders [30][32][35] 1.4 Profit - Blast furnace profits narrowed significantly, and electric furnace losses widened. The steel mill profitability rate decreased by 2.60 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of 76 independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 151 yuan/ton [36][39] 1.5 Inventory - The accumulation speed of building material social inventory slowed down, and plate inventory decreased slightly. Rebar total social inventory increased by 18.6 tons to 487.2 tons, and hot - rolled coil sample total inventory decreased by 1 ton to 373.3 tons [41][44][47] 1.6 Basis - The basis narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot was expected to widen. The rebar basis dropped by 34 to 83, and the hot - rolled coil basis dropped by 14 to 46 [48][50] 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The far - month premium continued, and the inverted situation was difficult to reverse. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar deepened to - 62, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 4 [52][54] 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market widened significantly and was expected to remain at a high level. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market widened by 40 to 237, and the spot spread increased by 60 to 200 [55][57] Iron Ore 2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The 01 contract of iron ore increased by 10 to 799.5, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port increased by 10 to 793 yuan/ton [60][62] 2.2 Supply - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the overall supply tightened. The weekly average shipment of Australia was 1822.4 tons, and that of Brazil was 507.2 tons. The arrival of resources decreased month - on - month, and the short - term supply tightened [63][65][69] 2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The iron - water output increased significantly, and the demand for iron ore recovered month - on - month. The daily average iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons week - on - week. Speculative demand: The port trading volume increased significantly, with the daily average trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports increasing by 11.9 tons [72][74][78] 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the previous loose supply. As of September 12th, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons month - on - month. Steel mill inventory increased slightly, and downstream actively replenished inventory for the resumption of production [79][81][84] 2.5 Shipping - Shipping prices increased slightly. The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao increased by 0.295 dollars to 10.295 dollars, and that from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 0.14 dollars to 23.71 dollars [85][87] 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore decreased slightly, and the 01 contract discount widened slightly. The 1 - 5 spread was 22, a decrease of 2.5 month - on - month [88][89] Strategy Recommendations - For steel products, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider the opportunity to short the ratio of rebar to iron ore. For iron ore, aggressive investors can consider short - term long positions on pullbacks. For arbitrage, consider shorting rebar and going long on iron ore. For spot - futures trading, industrial customers are advised to hold spot and establish a small number of short positions on the futures market when the price rebounds, and form a positive arbitrage position [5][9]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that methanol 2601 will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation weakly" respectively. The overall price of methanol is expected to face downward pressure due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.89% to 2349 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday. It is predicted that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are now dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face downward pressure. Additionally, the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors also contribute to the weak trend of methanol [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The supply increased overall, the construction material demand continued to decline, and the plate demand remained flat. The five major steel products accelerated inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, and the differentiation between varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [6]. - For iron ore, the price fluctuated narrowly, and the futures price was weak. The supply increased month - on - month, and the demand remained basically the same. The supply - demand structure became looser month - on - month. In the short term, the market is waiting and seeing. The strength of the peak - season demand for finished products cannot be verified or falsified, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded. Compared with finished products, the iron ore price may maintain the current oscillating and relatively strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price fluctuated and declined last week. The rebar 10 contract fell 69 points to close at 3119, and the spot price in East China dropped 30 yuan/ton week - on - week to 3290 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate decreased, but the output increased. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons week - on - week. Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month, but the impact time is short [14][18]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week. The short - process supply decreased due to factors such as tight scrap resources and falling rebar prices [21]. - The total output of the five major steel products last week was 878.06 tons, an increase of 6.43 tons week - on - week. Rebar production decreased significantly, while plate production increased [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 13th to 19th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased by 0.6% week - on - week. Although the high - temperature weather still significantly affected the construction material demand, the bottom of the demand may have appeared [28]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in July was 5.7%, and that of the equipment manufacturing industry was 8.4%. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [31]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The average cost of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3336 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 93 yuan/ton. It is expected that both blast furnace and electric arc furnace profits will continue to shrink [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1441.04 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons week - on - week. The accumulation rate of rebar social inventory slowed down, and the factory inventory increased slightly [39]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons last week, and the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons. The overall inventory level is still relatively low [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 151, an increase of 39 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was 19, an increase of 28 compared with last week. Due to the relatively strong spot price during the peak season, the basis is difficult to repair significantly [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 76, and the inversion narrowed by 5 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread for potential positive - spread opportunities [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 242, a narrowing of 9 compared with last week. The spot spread was 110, a narrowing of 20 compared with last week. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the 01 spread narrowing when the production - restriction policy is fully implemented [51]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly last week. The 01 contract fell 6 points to close at 770, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton to 767 yuan/ton. The market sentiment cooled, and the overall market was in a wait - and - see mode [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume from Australia decreased by 690,000 tons month - on - month, while that from Brazil increased by 710,000 tons month - on - month [59][62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.32 million tons week - on - week [65]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4075 million tons/day, an increase of 900 tons/day week - on - week. The demand for iron ore remained at a high level, showing strong resilience [68]. - The average daily port trading volume was 1.016 million tons, an increase of 62,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished inventory as needed [71]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 144.442 million tons, an increase of 630,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills was 27.5193 million tons, a decrease of 240,100 tons compared with the previous period. The overall change was not significant [78]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.21 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 23.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 22.5, an increase of 2 compared with last week, and it is at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 20, basically the same as last week, and the basis level is relatively low [86].

Group 1 - The float glass industry is entering a traditional peak season, which may lead to a temporary improvement in the supply-demand structure [1] - The average ex-factory price of domestic light soda ash is 1267.5 yuan/ton, down 2.9% from the end of July, while the average ex-factory price of float glass is 1209.38 yuan/ton, down 6.92% from the end of July [1] - Despite high inventory levels among float glass producers and intermediaries, improved orders from downstream processing plants are expected to support the sales rate of float glass manufacturers [1] Group 2 - The soda ash market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand imbalance, with the Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's second phase 2.8 million ton facility expected to start production in the second half of the year [2] - The operating load of the soda ash industry is expected to remain between 85%-89%, with a daily output of 10.7-11.2 thousand tons [2] - The demand for soda ash remains relatively stable, but poor profitability of downstream products limits support for the soda ash market, leading to expectations of a weak market in the short to medium term [2]