在"短途高频次，长线高品质"的假期旅行主基调下，居民的消费潜力得到了持续释放。长假作为全年刺 激消费情绪的黄金窗口期，叠加文旅热潮复苏与消费场景多元化，为快消、零售商品和餐饮市场带来结 构性机遇。10月1日至7日，全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额按可比口径同比增长2.7%，商务部重点监 测的78个商圈客流量、营业额同比分别增长8.8%和6.0%。绿色、智能、国潮消费亮点突出。抖音生活 服务10月8日公布的国庆中秋长假消费数据显示：体验式消费渐成主流。古镇古城、古风非遗相关体验 消费延续了近年来的火热态势，抖音团购订单量环比增长超100%。此外，博物馆也是大众文化游的热 门选择，团购订单量环比增长达68%。 同程旅行数据显示，今年国庆中秋长假，国内住宿市场呈现出连住酒店订单增速快、跨城市酒店预订频 次高、非一线城市高品质酒店和多居室民宿预订热度高的特征。8天长假，为用户开展高频次的本地周 边游，以及横跨多省的长线旅游提供了充裕的时间。假期中，国内酒店整体预订热度同比增长超过 65%，同时预订2个及以上城市的用户占比，同比增长超过20%。但可能受其他消费渠道对收入预算的 分摊影响，文旅对餐饮的带动效果低于去年同期。 ...

明明（中信证券首席经济学家） 2025年国庆中秋8天长假，出游人次创新高，新一线城市、县域旅游成为新兴消费增长极，自驾游、长 线游、跨境旅游等持续火热。 国内消费市场呈现"多极化"趋势，传统一线城市的主导地位正被打破，新一线城市、县域旅游成为新兴 消费增长极。微信支付数据显示，县域市场涨幅"领涨"全国，在假期前5日消费总额对比今年"五一"假 期增幅达到10%。重庆的微信支付消费金额、笔数均为第一，超越北上广深成为本次假期"双料冠军"， 成都、苏州、东莞等13座新一线城市的支付消费数据与北上广深一同"领跑"，展现了中国一线城市以外 的经济潜力和区域经济发展更加均衡的趋势。 自驾游、邻省出游增速较快，国内、国际客流均增长，消费活力凸显。根据交通运输部数据，10月1日 至8日，累计全社会跨区域人员流动量预计达到24.32亿人次，创历史同期新高；日均3.04亿人次，同比 增长6.2%。全国迁徙指数创21年以来新高，百度迁移指数同比增长近20%。从出行结构看，铁路、水 路、民航等各类交通客流量均有明显增长，公路出行仍占主导地位，同比增长最高达6.5%，其中自驾 出行比例高达八成，成为公众出行首选。滴滴数据显示，假期异地 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by nearly 2.4% and total trading volume reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual increase in risk appetite and liquidity in the domestic market [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural trend, with indices fluctuating while the central tendency moves upward, as corporate earnings still face pressure despite signs of economic recovery [1] Economic Indicators - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,174 billion, up by $32.2 billion from the end of May, remaining stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice to promote the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [2][3] - The policy aims to address the challenges in charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles, with expectations for accelerated construction from 2025 to 2027, benefiting the upstream and downstream of the industry chain [3] Trade Relations - The U.S. government announced a delay in tariff negotiations, with President Trump set to sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025 [3] - This trade policy reflects the Trump administration's strategy of using pressure to facilitate negotiations, which may increase global market volatility in the short term [3] Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3,497.48 points, up 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 points [4] - Among the sectors, utilities and banking experienced declines, while telecommunications, power equipment, and electronics led the gains [4] Capital Flow - The market's trading volume was 1,474.798 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance also rising to 1,859.38 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a new adjustment phase since June 13, with the banking sector showing resilience while new consumption stocks face significant declines [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share banking sector has risen nearly 4% over six days, ranking first among all industries, and has been on an upward trend for two and a half years, nearing the peak of the 2007 bull market [1]. - The overall market turnover has decreased significantly, with recent trading days seeing around 1.1 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector has experienced a sharp decline since June 5, with leading companies like Zhongchong Co. and Chaohongji seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. - The market's previous optimism around new consumption stocks has been undermined by a lack of fundamental support and high valuations, leading to a prolonged adjustment phase [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, with the "trade-in" category growing by 34% [3]. - The strong retail sales data suggests that the need for stimulus measures may diminish, impacting the outlook for new consumption stocks [3]. Liquidity Conditions - There are signs of tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to manage currency fluctuations, which could affect the performance of Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The previous liquidity support that fueled the rise of new consumption stocks is reversing, contributing to the sector's decline [5]. Investment Shifts - Investors initially expected to shift from new consumption stocks to technology stocks, but this has not materialized due to overall market conditions and low trading volumes [7]. - The banking sector is expected to remain a safe haven for investors, with significant interest from institutional players [16]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market's dividend sectors are categorized into four main areas: resource, financial, natural monopoly, and broad consumption [8]. - The oil sector has seen a recent surge, with Brent crude oil prices rising nearly 20% since June 11, but concerns about geopolitical tensions may lead to volatility [9][10]. - The coal sector has underperformed, with a 12% decline this year due to falling prices and weak demand from the real estate sector [14]. Strategic Outlook - Given the current market conditions, a conservative approach is recommended, with a focus on reducing positions and waiting for better opportunities [19]. - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, despite its declining fundamentals, due to the support from state-owned entities [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand in the face of economic uncertainties and insufficient internal demand, with a target growth rate of 5% facing challenges [1][5][7] - The article discusses the effectiveness of fiscal policy over monetary policy in addressing demand shortages, particularly in the current economic context where low inflation and high real interest rates prevail [3][4][6] - It highlights the importance of balancing fiscal spending between investment and consumption, suggesting that while investment is crucial, immediate measures should also focus on stimulating consumption to drive economic growth [6][7] Group 2 - Fiscal measures can be categorized into income policies and expenditure policies, with expenditure policies having a broader operational space to stimulate investment and consumption [4][5] - The article suggests that expanding fiscal deficits to increase spending can send a clear signal to the market, but cautions against excessive deficits that could have negative economic impacts [5][6] - It proposes that short-term fiscal spending should prioritize consumption, utilizing methods such as consumption vouchers and increased social security funding to quickly boost consumer confidence [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a low level of prosperity, with expectations for a cyclical recovery in the future. The performance of the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors has shown significant divergence, influenced by factors such as oil price fluctuations and market demand [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the petrochemical sector achieved revenue of 1,015.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, while the basic chemical sector reported revenue of 607.0 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petrochemical sector was 17.0 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year, whereas the basic chemical sector saw a net profit of 37.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - For the full year of 2024, the petrochemical sector is projected to generate revenue of 43,056 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2%, while the basic chemical sector is expected to reach 24,970 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Cost and Demand Dynamics - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2025 is projected to be 65.3 USD/barrel, reflecting a decline of 12.9% from Q1 2025 and 23.2% from Q2 2024 [3]. - The petrochemical and basic chemical sectors experienced year-on-year capital expenditure growth rates of -24.5% and -5.3%, respectively, indicating a slowdown in investment [3]. - Despite challenges in international trade, the resilience of China's chemical exports is anticipated, particularly with the potential release of domestic demand driven by ongoing policy support [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors are 18.2x and 23.7x, respectively, indicating a premium compared to historical averages [4]. - The basic chemical sector is viewed as undervalued, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [4]. - Key investment themes include expanding domestic demand, fostering new production capabilities, and capitalizing on high-performing resource sectors [5].

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the short to medium term, despite short-term concerns regarding fundamentals and liquidity [3][6] - The report highlights a preference for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology [3][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding sectors and companies with significant exposure to the U.S. due to potential impacts from U.S.-China trade disputes [3][6] Group 2 - In April, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 13% on April 7, marking the largest single-day decline since the 1997 Asian financial crisis [4][12] - The Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index recorded monthly declines of -3.70%, -4.33%, and -5.70% respectively by the end of April [4][12] - The report notes that the market's performance was weaker than expected, influenced by the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions [12][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market is under pressure, with domestic economic data showing improvement but external demand being significantly impacted by trade tensions [5][41] - The report highlights that the domestic economy's performance is closely tied to mainland China's economic conditions, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [41][42] - The report discusses the need for policy measures to boost domestic demand as external pressures increase, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing the economy [78][80] Group 4 - The report identifies that sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed relatively well in April, while sectors with high exposure to U.S. exports, such as textiles and machinery, faced significant declines [13][12] - The report notes that the valuation levels of the Hang Seng Index are currently below the five-year average, with a PE ratio of 10.5 as of the end of April [21][22] - The report highlights a significant inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market, with Alibaba and Tencent being major beneficiaries of this trend [21][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in North America has stabilized, while European operations continue to grow, with Q1 results exceeding expectations [1][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan [5][15]. - The company is expected to see a profit rebound, with projections for net profit in 2025 and 2026 at 307 million yuan and 464 million yuan respectively [15]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit of 58.72 million yuan, up 196.2% [5][7]. - Domestic and overseas sales for 2024 were 1.48 billion yuan and 6.75 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 6.7% [6]. - The company's self-owned brand revenue reached 1.13 billion yuan domestically, reflecting a 3.6% increase [6]. Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 36.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 39.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The gross margin for the company's self-owned brand in 2024 was 46.0%, down 0.7 percentage points [10]. Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased to 34.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [13]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a rebound in profits due to the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and domestic demand stimulation policies [14]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained, with 2027 revenue projected at 12.73 billion yuan [15]. - The company is expected to benefit from reduced reliance on major clients, with the top five clients accounting for 16.2% of revenue in 2024, down 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Puhua Co., China Jushi, Beixin Building Materials, and Yuhua Co. [8] Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 1.27% from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and fiberglass manufacturing performing well [1][12] - The report emphasizes the impact of second-hand housing transactions on the demand for building materials, suggesting a positive correlation with consumption stimulus policies [2] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the cement industry, with prices fluctuating around breakeven levels due to increased production cuts [3][17] - Seasonal improvements in glass demand are noted, but there are still supply-demand contradictions, particularly with expectations of declining demand post-2025 [2][28] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential and solid performance, such as Puhua Co. and Yuhua Co. [2][8] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, the national cement price index is 388.22 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.17% week-on-week [3][17] - The cement output reached 3.5205 million tons, an increase of 4.85% from the previous week, indicating some recovery in demand [3][17] - The report notes a current market structure of "infrastructure support, housing drag, and civil supplement," with short-term demand unlikely to see significant improvement [17] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1331.75 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% [28] - Inventory levels for raw glass in 13 provinces decreased by 60,000 boxes, indicating a slight improvement in demand [28] - The report anticipates price fluctuations in the short term due to stable supply and weak demand [28] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is experiencing a stabilization in prices, with the report suggesting that the price war has ended and prices are beginning to recover [2][6] - The demand for wind power fiberglass is expected to increase significantly in 2025, driven by a surge in installation capacity [2][6] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation for companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials [2][8] - The report indicates a weak recovery in demand for consumer building materials, with upstream raw material prices showing mixed trends [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Puhua Co., China Jushi, Beixin Building Materials, and Yuhua Co. [8] Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a slight increase of 1.27% from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and fiberglass manufacturing performing well [1][12] - The report emphasizes the impact of second-hand housing transactions on the demand for building materials, suggesting a positive correlation with consumption stimulus policies [2] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the cement industry, with prices fluctuating around break-even levels due to increased production cuts and a focus on cost advantages among leading firms [2][3] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, the national cement price index is 388.22 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.17% week-on-week, while the cement output increased by 4.85% to 352.05 million tons [3][17] - The cement market is characterized by strong infrastructure demand but weak residential construction, leading to a challenging environment for cement producers [17][23] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1331.75 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24%, with inventory levels showing a slight decrease [28][31] - The report notes a seasonal improvement in glass demand, although supply-demand imbalances persist, particularly with expectations of declining demand post-2025 [2][28] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is showing signs of recovery, with prices stabilizing after a period of decline, and demand from the wind power sector is expected to increase significantly in 2025 [2][6] - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology due to their growth potential in the fiberglass market [2][8] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is experiencing a weak recovery, with prices of upstream raw materials like asphalt remaining stable [7] - The report suggests that consumer building materials will benefit from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies [2][7] Carbon Fiber Market - The carbon fiber market is stabilizing, with production rates improving and a slight increase in demand expected from sectors like wind energy and hydrogen storage [2][6] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price stabilization in the context of economic recovery [2][6]