固收-年末"最后一跌"，或可配置 20251124 摘要 当前市场是一个较好的配置窗口，10 年期国债收益率上行至 1.83%左 右是一个安全保护点位，年末需关注农村金融机构的买入水平，这将决 定后续是否会有一波配置行情启动。 预计 2026 年财政政策延续积极基调，赤字率维持 4%左右，国债发行 量预计约为 5 万亿，准财政工具仍有发力空间，特别国债和新增专项债 可能增加，政府资金需求比今年增加约 1.3 万亿。 当前推荐阿尔法挖掘策略中的 7~10 年证金债和 3~5 年品种，以及 10 年期国债，超长端具有较好的配置性价比，本周相对较好的阿尔法品种 包括短端 3~5 年的政金债和 30 年的超长端国债老券。 当前市场胜率较高但赔率有限，不必过度焦虑，可以逐步建仓以布局明 年的票息收入，关注农村金融机构等主要资金动向，以便及时调整投资 策略。 预计 2026 年政府部门的财政支持力度将从 2025 年的 68%左右上升到 70.5%左右，增幅有所放缓，但整体趋势仍然是上升的。 预计 2026 年普通国债发行规模将达到 7.1 万亿人民币，地方债总计约 7.5 万亿人民币，一季度融资节奏较快，需关注供给压力 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In October, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.0%, down from 49.8% in September[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.1, compared to the previous value of 50.0[1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI decline is attributed to intensified trade frictions, with both supply and demand indices showing significant drops[2] - The production index fell to 49.7% (-2.2 percentage points), while the new orders index decreased to 48.8% (-0.9 percentage points)[2] - New export orders index dropped to 45.9% (-1.9 percentage points), indicating weakened external demand[2] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Construction Sector - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated to specific projects, contributing to an overall investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, including both new and old infrastructure and high-end manufacturing[2] - The construction sector's business activity expectation index rose to 56.0%, the highest since January, reflecting improved expectations due to policy support[3] Group 4: Price Indices and Industry Performance - The main raw material purchase price index was at 52.5% (-0.7 percentage points), while the factory price index was at 47.5% (-0.7 percentage points), both showing a decline for two consecutive months[2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.2% (-1.7 percentage points), and the consumer goods industry PMI at 50.1% (-0.5 percentage points), indicating a general downturn across major industries[2]

Core Insights - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments has been fully allocated within a month, with major banks announcing their contributions [1] - The new policy-based financial instruments are viewed as "quasi-fiscal" tools, expected to drive a total project investment of 7.08 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Instrument Allocation - The National Development Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, and Export-Import Bank have completed the allocation of 2.5 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1 billion yuan respectively [1] - The funds are primarily directed towards key economic provinces, with the National Development Bank investing 1,949.5 billion yuan in 690 projects across 12 provinces [1] - The Agricultural Development Bank has supported 667 projects with a total of 1,087.23 billion yuan in 12 provinces [1] Group 2: Impact on Private Investment - The quasi-fiscal tools have a significant leverage effect on private investment, with the National Development Bank supporting 128 private investment projects totaling 685.9 billion yuan [2] - The Agricultural Development Bank has focused on 52 key private investment projects amounting to 155.33 billion yuan [2] - The Export-Import Bank has facilitated over 100 private investment projects, with more than 30% of the funding allocated to these initiatives [2] Group 3: Focus on Key Sectors - The National Development Bank has supported 317 projects in digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumer sectors, investing 980.2 billion yuan [2] - The Agricultural Development Bank has allocated 1,500 billion yuan to 881 projects in these critical areas [2] - The Export-Import Bank has promoted over 150 projects in digital economy and artificial intelligence, with funding accounting for over 40% of the total [2] Group 4: Expert Insights - Analysts suggest that the new policy-based financial instruments will enhance foundational platforms in emerging industries such as digital economy and artificial intelligence [2] - The potential for fiscal subsidies on these instruments could lower financing costs, reflecting a coordinated fiscal and financial policy approach [2] - This strategy is expected to accelerate project implementation and increase tangible investment outcomes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a new policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support effective investment and stabilize economic growth [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting the new policy financial tool to ensure funds are allocated to specific projects, aiming to accelerate project construction and increase physical workload [1][4]. - The establishment of the new policy financial tool was first mentioned in an April 25 meeting, emphasizing the need for structural monetary policy tools to support innovation, consumption, and stabilize foreign trade [1][4]. - The NDRC plans to expedite the approval and allocation of the new policy financial tool, as stated in a press conference on August 1 [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The new policy financial tool is expected to positively influence the macro economy by optimizing fund allocation and enhancing market confidence [4][6]. - It is projected that the 500 billion yuan allocated for the new policy financial tool could leverage over 2 trillion yuan in credit, potentially resulting in 1 to 1.5 trillion yuan in credit issuance within the year [4]. - The projects supported by this tool will primarily focus on emerging pillar industries and new infrastructure, which is anticipated to boost fixed asset investment growth [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The recent monetary policy measures, including a reduction in the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) mortgage supplementary loan (PSL) rate to 2%, indicate a strong focus on supporting policy banks [2][5]. - Analysts note that the scale of the new policy financial tool exceeds expectations, with its entire allocation aimed at capital contributions, enhancing its potential impact on investment [6]. - There are concerns regarding the rapid deployment of funds, as the availability of sufficient projects to utilize the allocated capital remains uncertain [6].

Group 1 - The stock market shows a strong trend while the bond market faces challenges, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][4] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds has increased by 14 basis points and 23 basis points respectively since early July, reaching 1.7818% and 2.0775% [1] - The bond market sentiment remains cautious despite a slight recovery potential as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 1.8% mark [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market have not changed significantly, with weak financing demand and a reasonably ample liquidity environment providing support [2] - In July, social financing continued to show a divergence in total and structural characteristics, with government bond issuance being a major contributor while real financing demand remains weak [2] - Economic data for July indicates weakening demand pressures, with notable declines in investment, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [2][3] Group 3 - The current economic strength suggests that achieving annual growth targets is not overly pressured, with rising commodity prices contributing to a rebound in inflation expectations [3] - The monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone," with no immediate motivation for active easing, and the probability of rate cuts further decreasing in the third quarter [3] - Recent policies aimed at supporting personal consumption loans and service industry loans reflect a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stabilize employment [3][4] Group 4 - A new "quasi-fiscal" tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be implemented, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, which can enhance effective investment [4] - The market has experienced three phases since the beginning of the year: tightening liquidity in Q1, a dual bull market in Q2, and a renewed "see-saw" effect in Q3 driven by strong policy support [4] - The future of the "see-saw" market trend will depend on whether the positive expectations for the economic fundamentals can translate into reality and the direction of monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper futures market experienced a slight decline this week, with a weekly change of -0.47% and a trading range of 1.02%, closing at 78,960 yuan per ton [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve officials are cautious about interest rate cuts, reducing traders' bets on two rate cuts this year [1] - The U.S. August S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached 55.4, marking an 8-month high [1] Group 2: Domestic Policy and Investment - A 500 billion yuan "quasi-fiscal" tool will be launched, focusing on funding emerging industries and infrastructure [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper mine supply is being released, with the copper concentrate TC spot index recovering but still in negative territory, supporting copper prices [1] - Domestic smelter demand is expected to increase, leading to a slight growth in refined copper supply [1] - Downstream consumption remains subdued due to the off-season, but there may be pre-stocking demand as the peak season approaches, improving demand expectations [1] Group 4: Market Strategy - The overall supply of copper is expected to grow slightly, with stable demand expectations and industry inventory at a mid-low level [1] - A trading strategy of light positions and buying on dips is recommended, with an emphasis on controlling pace and risk [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a stable supply - demand situation and positive expectations. The fundamentals show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and industry inventory remaining in the medium - low range. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated, with a weekly increase or decrease of - 0.47% and an amplitude of 1.02%. The closing price of the main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: Most Fed officials remain cautious about interest rate cuts. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in August reached 55.4, a new high in 8 months, leading traders to reduce bets on two Fed rate cuts this year [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is to be launched, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates has rebounded but is still in the negative range. The supply of copper concentrates at ports is decreasing, and domestic smelters' demand is rising, with a possible slight increase in domestic refined copper supply. Due to the off - season, downstream consumption is weak, but demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [6]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market Situation - **Contract and Spot Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 78,690 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton, and the position was 120,902 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 31,655 lots. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,830 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 270 yuan/ton [11][17]. - **Cross - Period and Premium**: The cross - period quotation of the Shanghai copper main contract was 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 57 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,913 lots, a decrease of 7,493 lots from last week [17][23]. - **Options and Volatility**: As of August 22, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell to around the 25th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8706, a week - on - week change of 0.0907 [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Fees**: The copper concentrate quotation in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 69,160 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 480 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [31]. - **Imports and Spread**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96% and a year - on - year growth rate of 18.41%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,036.84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.53 yuan/ton [36]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 422,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - side of the Industry - **Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of domestic refined copper was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46% and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.14%. As of May 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.395 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from April, a growth rate of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [46]. - **Imports**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32% and a year - on - year growth rate of 12.05% [51]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 750 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,626 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 412 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 129,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, a growth rate of 4.35% and a year - on - year growth rate of 9.09% [58]. - **Application Fields**: - **Power and Appliances**: As of June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.94% and 14.58% respectively. As of July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% respectively [64]. - **Real Estate and Semiconductors**: As of July 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 29.46 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [70]. 3.3.4 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of May 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [76].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply Slightly Increases, Demand Improves, Lithium Prices May Find Support" [2] - Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain largely unchanged, with both supply and demand increasing. Although inventory is still high, it is being depleted. The report suggests a light - position, short - term long strategy when prices are low, while controlling risks [5] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - The closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton as of August 22, 2025, a weekly decrease of 7,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 9.14% and an amplitude of 13.81%. The near - far month spread was 220 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton [5][11] Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 83,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,200 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,940 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 9,140 yuan/ton [17] Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Concentrate - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 970 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 86 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1778, a weekly increase of 0.07% [21] Lithium Mica - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,825 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 615 yuan/ton [26] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply - As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The monthly output was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a monthly decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] Demand - **Electrolyte and Related Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8,000 yuan/ton [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The operating rate was 51%, a monthly decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [39] - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The operating rate was 52%, a monthly increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of mainstream ternary materials continued to strengthen [42] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price of lithium manganate was 34,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton [47] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price of lithium cobaltate was 235,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton [50] Application End - New Energy Vehicles - As of July 2025, the monthly production of new - energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a monthly decrease of 1.97%; the monthly sales were 1,262,000 units, a monthly decrease of 5.04%. The penetration rate was 44.99%, a monthly increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million units, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57] Group 5: Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the policy trends in multiple fields from August 7th to August 21st, 2025, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies. These policies aim to boost consumption, expand investment, support emerging industries, and stabilize the real estate market, among other goals [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - economic Tone - Personal consumption loan and service industry business loan fiscal subsidy policies were implemented. The subsidy ratio is 1 percentage point, and the central and provincial finances bear 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds respectively. The policies will be evaluated upon expiration [11][14][15]. - The State Council Executive Meeting emphasized cultivating and expanding service consumption and increasing effective investment [12][15]. - 188 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal investment subsidies were fully allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [13][15]. 2. Fiscal Policy - Special bonds can be used for government expenditures in the construction costs of PPP stock projects. Local governments are required to manage and use funds properly to ensure the stable operation of PPP projects [16][19]. - A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is expected to be launched, potentially focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [17]. - The implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law were open for public consultation, clarifying relevant scope and rules [18][19]. 3. Monetary Policy - In August, the central bank conducted repurchase operations, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan, showing its care for the market [20][22]. - The central bank continued the overall tone of "implementing and refining" and remained committed to preventing capital idling. The probability of a policy interest rate cut is relatively low in the short term [20][21][22]. - Financial institutions should focus on exploring effective credit demand rather than being overly concerned about monthly credit increment fluctuations [21][22]. 4. Financial Supervision - Regarding banks, regulators addressed "involution - style" competition, residents' deposits flowed into the market, a draft for public comment on the management measures for commercial bank merger and acquisition loans was released, and many small and medium - sized banks lowered deposit interest rates [22][23][26]. - For insurance, three new scenarios for claiming personal pensions were added [24][28]. - The trading association launched a self - regulatory investigation into institutions involved in the illegal use of raised funds in bond financing [25][28]. 5. Real Estate Policy - The policy aims to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, improve the basic real - estate financial system, and release improvement - oriented housing demand [29][31][32]. - Beijing lifted the purchase restrictions on commercial housing outside the Fifth Ring Road [29][32]. - Hainan Province introduced real - estate regulatory policies, allowing for appropriate relaxation of the acquisition area standard when purchasing existing commercial housing for affordable rental housing [30][31][32]. 6. Tariff Policy - The suspension of the 24% additional tariff on US imports was extended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff was retained [33][34]. - Trump stated that there is currently no plan to impose additional tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil, but this might be reconsidered in two or three weeks [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tools, with a funding scale of 500 billion yuan, aim to boost investment in emerging industries and infrastructure, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon sectors [2][3][9] Group 1: Policy and Government Initiatives - Since May, various regions have been organizing policy briefings and project preparation meetings regarding new policy financial tools [2] - The central government has signaled an increase in investment efforts, with the State Council emphasizing the need to expand effective investment and promote private investment [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to expedite the establishment of new policy financial tools [2][3] Group 2: Project Preparation and Focus Areas - Local governments are actively preparing project reserves, focusing on matching projects with the new financial tools, including traditional industry upgrades and high-tech projects [5][6] - Specific regions, such as Hubei and Guangdong, are identifying projects that align with national strategies and the requirements of the new financial tools [5][6] - In Shanxi, 11 projects have been reserved with a total investment of 13.369 billion yuan, indicating a strong focus on transportation, logistics, and green transformation [5][6] Group 3: Financial Mechanism and Market Impact - The new policy financial tools are characterized as "quasi-fiscal" instruments, with project selection managed by the NDRC and funding provided by policy banks [3][10] - The tools are designed to address capital shortages for project construction and to lower financing thresholds, thereby expanding effective investment [7][11] - The implementation of these tools is expected to complement special bonds and enhance capital input for projects [10][11] Group 4: Economic Context and Challenges - The introduction of new policy financial tools comes in response to declining investment growth, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 1.6% in July [10][11] - There are concerns regarding the effectiveness of policy banks in investing in emerging industries, which require specialized judgment [11] - The focus on ensuring that investments yield returns while avoiding increased local hidden debt is a critical consideration for the successful deployment of these tools [11]