每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜毕陆名 会议认为，主要宏观调控指标处在合理区间，经济结构持续优化，防范化解金融风险取得初步成效，生 态环境改善，人民群众获得感、幸福感、安全感增强。 会议要求，保持经济平稳健康发展，坚持实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，提高政策的前瞻性、 灵活性、有效性。 财政政策要在扩大内需和结构调整上发挥更大作用。要把好货币供给总闸门，保持流动性合理充裕。 图片来源：新华社 中共中央政治局7月31日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议要求，把防范化解金融风险和服务实体经济更好结合起来，坚定做好去杠杆工作，把握好力度和节 奏，协调好各项政策出台时机。要通过机制创新，提高金融服务实体经济的能力和意愿。 此前提到"杠杆"的中央政治局会议召开时间是2017年12月8日，要求防范化解重大风险要使宏观杠杆率 得到有效控制，金融服务实体经济能力增强，防范风险工作取得积极成效。前后对比可见，7月31日对 去杠杆的态度更为坚定，要求"坚定做好去杠杆工作"。 中国银行国际金融研究所研究员高玉伟在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出，与市场上有些人判断 进入"稳杠杆"阶段不同，中央仍然强调坚定 ...

每经记者｜李可愚 每经编辑｜王可然 近日公布的2018年上半年国民经济运行数据显示，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供 应业）同比增长7.3%，增速比1~5月份回落2.1个百分点。 在上半年基建投资增速趋缓的大背景下，下半年地方融资和基建投资将面临怎样的态势？7月17日，在 由瑞银举办的"下半年中国宏观经济展望"会议上，瑞银亚洲经济研究联席主管、中国首席经济学家汪涛 对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，在地方融资"堵后门"的同时，应该开一定的"前门"，应该加大地方政府 债务和专项债的发行力度，使得它们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。 而接下来，又该如何协调去杠杆和保证正常融资需求之间的关系？对此，汪涛认为，对地方政府债务的 控制肯定是正确的，这是降低金融风险的方向。 不过，地方政府既然有很多基建，包括PPP项目，如果控制影子信贷或其他各方面的融资，那么在"堵 后门"的同时就应该开一定的"前门"，地方政府债务（显性债务）、专项债，应该加大发行力度，使它 们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。"我们认为这方面对PPP项目、对地方融资渠道可能也会有一定调整，使 得下半年，尤其四季度之后基建投资可能走稳。"汪涛这样向记者表示 ...

买股卖币！美国散户抄底区别对待，比特币自2020年7月来首次跌破生产成本，这话题听起来像热闹市 场里的两拨人同时唱反调，一拨在抢股票的便宜货，一拨在甩手里头的加密币，这段热闹里藏着资金流 向和市场情绪的裂缝，后面要说清楚谁在买谁在卖，还有一个可能改变局面的日期等待敲定。 11月里美国散户分成两边行动，一边拼命买入股票ETF，到11月18日为止，全球股票ETF本月净流入已 经有960亿美元，照这个节奏，整个11月可能冲到约1600亿美元； 加密市场这波抛售不是从传统加密玩家开始的，10月那会儿原生加密投资者通过永续合约大幅去杠杆之 后，11月的去杠杆动作平稳数据看是非原生投资者——主要是通过现货比特币和以太坊ETF的散户，成 为了这波下跌的主力； 比特币价格在11月里出现一个明显信号，它跌破了摩根大通估算的约9.4万美元"生产成本"，这是自 2020年7月以来首次出现的情况，这个"生产成本"是拿挖矿成本来算的，意味着挖矿那档子成本不再给 价格提供足够的支撑； 股票这边，散户仍然保持热情，除了大额净流入，杠杆股票ETF也有约70亿美元的资金流入，到11月18 日为止这类资金也在往里涌，说明有一部分散户还是想用放大 ...

比特币从九万下探到八万，这事儿听着像末日预演，也可能是捡便宜的好机会，下面我把来龙去脉说清楚，让你知道发生了什么，再决定自己站哪边。 10月6日，比特币创下126,272.76美元的历史高点，市场一片热闹，很多人还在数着未来的利润； 不到一个半月后，11月18日，比特币跌破91,500美元，一度触及九万美元以下，七个月高点被彻底抹去； 这次下跌短短六周内，整个加密货币市值蒸发超1.2万亿美元，声势比想象中还要猛烈； 市场情绪从极度贪婪转成极度恐慌，CoinMarketCap和其他情绪指标把参与者吓得开始大买保护性合约； 期权市场里，交易员大量押注看跌合约，11月底到期、集中在9万、8.5万和8万美元的合约规模超过7.4亿美元； Crypto Fear Greed指数降到13，到了历史上常见短期底部出现的低位，大家都开始紧盯下一步； 去杠杆动作在场内蔓延，Matrixport和Coinglass数据显示，以太坊未平仓合约规模大幅回落，杠杆资金在快速撤离； 小币种的未平仓合约下降更明显，Solana等代币的持仓量跌幅超过一半，市场杠杆大幅收缩； 去杠杆既是利空也是清洗，短期放大抛压，但长远看减少了过度投机的风险， ...

智通财经APP获悉，周四，华尔街市场情绪出现惊人逆转。AI龙头英伟达(NVDA.US)超预期的业绩表 现，以及9月强劲的非农就业报告，起初推动纳斯达克综合指数上涨逾2%，但至午间所有涨幅尽数回 吐，收盘时该科技股主导指数反而下挫超过2%。 回顾10月10日，华尔街曾遭遇重挫，标普500基准指数下跌2.7%，比特币跌幅更是达到7.2%。 "但10月10日的那次清算规模实在惊人……它严重削弱了做市商的能力。而做市商在加密货币市场中至 关重要，因为他们是流动性的核心提供者，其作用几乎等同于加密货币领域的'央行'。如果他们的资产 负债表出现缺口、需要补充资本金，就会本能地收缩资产负债表、降低交易规模;一旦价格下跌，他们 还不得不进一步抛售资产，"Lee解释道。 "因此，过去几周加密货币市场的持续走弱，本质上反映了做市商能力受损的影响。2022年时，这类风 险的消化耗时8周，而目前我们仅处于第6周。所以我认同这一判断：由于当前加密货币市场的去杠杆进 程，以及流动性疲软、持续承压的状态，比特币和以太坊在某种程度上已成为股市的领先指标，"他进 一步补充道。 "我不会说比特币是日内大幅反转的根本原因，但它是直接导火索。因为目 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin has fallen below $87,000 for the first time since April, with a single-day drop exceeding 4%, marking a decline that has persisted for over a month due to whale sell-offs and a lack of buying interest [1][3] - The market experienced a significant downturn after a record rise in October, leading to short-term traders continuously liquidating positions, which has resulted in increased selling pressure [3] - Two key factors driving the current decline are identified: the self-fulfilling nature of the "four-year cycle," where whales have sold over $20 billion in assets since September, and the ongoing deleveraging in the market, which has diminished the buying momentum that previously supported Bitcoin's rise [3] Group 2 - The volatility of cryptocurrencies is highlighted, advising against impulsive trading based on short-term emotions; investors are encouraged to reassess their long-term value outlook before making decisions [4] - It is recommended that potential investors wait for reduced volatility and stable support levels before entering the market, as the deleveraging process is not yet complete [4] - Emphasis is placed on managing position sizes due to the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments, advocating for a steady approach rather than speculative betting [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a 6.1% decline in October, marking the first "red October" since 2018, following a deleveraging shock [1] - Despite the overall market pressure, BNB rose by 6.2% due to the launch of popular projects and the tokenization of a money market fund by China Merchants Bank [1] - Major tokens such as SOL, ADA, and DOGE saw declines exceeding 10% [1] Market Performance - The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi decreased by 4.85% [1] - The market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 3.54% [1] - Institutional demand for ETH remains strong, with treasury holdings reaching 5% of total supply [1] Future Outlook - The report suggests that November may see a recovery in market sentiment, with attention on the potential benefits from the end of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and improvements in US-China relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) suggest potential inflation, driven by rising global commodity prices and the effects of loose monetary and fiscal policies [1][2]. Economic Indicators - October CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% [1]. - The total import and export value in October was $520.63 billion, with exports at $305.35 billion (down 1.1% year-on-year) and imports at $215.28 billion (up 1.0% year-on-year) [6]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% in the first three quarters, with private investment down by 3.1% [4]. - Investment in high-tech sectors has seen significant growth, exceeding 20%, while traditional sectors like real estate are struggling [6][7]. Consumer Behavior - Despite loose monetary policies, consumer borrowing is declining as individuals focus on deleveraging, impacting consumption [4]. - The introduction of new tax policies for e-commerce is expected to reduce disposable income for many, further constraining consumer spending [11][14]. Employment and Production - The potential for inflation may not translate into increased demand, as companies may reduce production in response to rising costs, leading to layoffs and decreased consumer spending [9][10]. - The shift towards high-tech investments may not provide immediate employment solutions for the broader workforce, which still relies heavily on traditional industries [7]. Trade Dynamics - The tightening of tax regulations is anticipated to negatively impact export activities, with businesses facing increased tax burdens and reduced profit margins [11][13][14]. - The overall trade environment is showing signs of contraction, with exports beginning to decline significantly from October onwards [5][13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has achieved a reduction in net debt by BRL 500 million, starting from an operational cash generation of BRL 4.2 billion, which is higher than the previous quarter [15][16][20] - EBITDA increased from 5.5% to 5.7%, reaching a margin of 7.6% [13][20] - Net income for the quarter was BRL 195 million, slightly down from BRL 198 million, reflecting the impact of financial results and tax credits [20][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a performance difference between sectors, with classes A and B gaining volume while classes C, D, and E experienced a retraction in volumes [7][9] - B2B sales, which represent about 40-45% of total sales, showed a significant drop in volume, particularly in cash and carry formats [6][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brazil's interest rates reached an all-time high of 15%, impacting consumer debt levels and spending behavior [7][9] - Retail formats serving classes A and B saw a volume increase of 2.7%, while cash and carry formats experienced an 8.3% drop in volume [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deleveraging and maintaining a strong cash generation strategy, with plans to continue opening new stores selectively [15][22] - There is an emphasis on expanding private label offerings and enhancing digital channels, particularly through partnerships for last-mile delivery [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging economic environment but expressed confidence in the company's ability to maintain stability and continue deleveraging [4][20] - The company anticipates a potential recovery in the bar sector and expects strong sales initiatives during the end-of-year period [49] Other Important Information - The company has set a public goal to achieve zero landfill by 2035 and is actively working on sustainability initiatives [23][24] - The app has registered 21 million customers, with 16 million being contactable, indicating strong customer engagement [55] Q&A Session Summary Question: Financial services dynamic and core business expenses - Management discussed ongoing initiatives to control expenses and the potential for further efficiency improvements without compromising customer service [30][31][32] Question: Profitability and CapEx guidance - The company reinforced its guidance for margin improvement while managing working capital and maintaining discipline in supplier relationships [35][36] Question: Update on private label and cash and carry trends - Management highlighted the importance of the cash and carry model and its exposure to lower-income consumers, while also discussing the potential for private label growth [39][40][41] Question: CapEx and store expansion strategy - The company confirmed plans to open new stores with high return potential while being cautious about overall investment levels due to rising interest rates [42][43][46] Question: October sales performance and competition in hygiene and beauty categories - Management expressed optimism about October's strong sales and acknowledged competitive pressures in the beauty market, particularly from higher-income segments [47][48] Question: Self-checkout impact and labor challenges - The company noted that self-checkout has improved customer experience and efficiency, despite challenges in hiring and maintaining staff levels [50][51][52] Question: Updates on app and Black Friday initiatives - Management shared plans for Black Friday promotions and highlighted the app's strong customer base as a key growth avenue [54][55]