摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚市时段，黄金带着多年历史性上涨动能进入2026年，虽2024-2025年屡创纪录高 位、频被指"超买"，但市场持仓拥挤度仍合理——贵金属调整中，黄金回撤幅度最小。更关键的是，机 构持仓还有显著扩张空间，本轮涨势并非短期投机推动，而是依托未到顶的结构性需求，可持续性更 强。 今日周三(1月7日)亚市时段，黄金带着多年历史性上涨动能进入2026年，虽2024-2025年屡创纪录高位、 频被指"超买"，但市场持仓拥挤度仍合理——贵金属调整中，黄金回撤幅度最小。更关键的是，机构持 仓还有显著扩张空间，本轮涨势并非短期投机推动，而是依托未到顶的结构性需求，可持续性更强。 黄金价格月线维持多头通道，但RSI处历史高位，乖离需以时间修正;周线围绕10周均线4230震荡， MACD高位死叉，倾向区间运行;日线关键在4318中轨与4520上轨间抉择，4小时布林收口，4380为上 沿、4300为下沿，等待放量突破。 【基本面解析】 关注上方阻力：4516-4544历史压力带;下方支撑：4230-4274、4115，极限4000。策略：区间内高抛低 吸，突破4400跟多、目标4516-4544;跌破423 ...

美国财政部标售690亿美元2年期国债后，美国国债在隔夜小幅下跌后，于美国交易时段延续跌势。周二 和周三将分别迎来5年期和7年期美债的发行。此前美债收益率在亚洲交易时段上行，日本国债普跌，市 场对日本央行或需更激进地加息以遏制日元持续走弱的猜测升温。 美国10年期国债收益率上涨1.57个基点，报4.1628%。 美国30年期国债收益率上涨1.53个基点，报4.8395%。 美国2年和10年国债收益率差下跌0.34个基点，报65.821个基点。 美国5年和30年国债收益率差下跌0.24个基点，报112.677个基点。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，美国国债收益率曲线短端上行不超过3个基点，呈现熊趋平走势，长端日内略微 跑赢，推动5s30s利差较上周五趋平1个基点。 美国交易时段，曲线短端和中段表现落后，投资者为即将到来的国债拍卖提前布局；同时，成交量依然 清淡，除隔夜日本国债走弱外，市场几乎没有明显的价格催化因素；至尾盘，美债期货成交量仅相当于 20日均值的50%。 690亿美元2年期美债拍卖中标收益率较发行前交易水平高出约0.3个基点，一级交易商获配比例为 12.7%，为6月份以来最高。直接投标人获配比例为34.1%， ...

1、中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华：多晶硅产量12年来首次下降 在2025光伏行业年度大会上，中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华在报告中表示，多晶硅自2013年 以来产量首次同比下降，硅片自2009年以来首次同比下降。其给出的数据显示，2025年1-10月，多晶硅 产量约111.3万吨，同比下降29.6%；硅片产量约567GW，同比下降6.7%。电池片产量约560GW，同比 增长9.8%，光伏组件产量约514GW，同比增长13.5%。 证券时报推出"落实会议部署问答中国经济"系列述评，鉴于央行正逐步淡化量化目标，更加注重价 格型调控工具的作用，新的一年，央行还可能进一步推动收窄利率走廊、稳定国债收益率曲线、改革贷 款市场报价利率（LPR）报价等工作，加强各项利率之间的协同性和联动性，持续提升货币政策的传导 效果。加强财政政策和货币政策协调配合同样有助于扩大政策效能，在贷款贴息、风险补偿、信用增 进、国债发行等多个领域，财政、货币政策仍有深化合作空间。 4、美股三大股指收盘普跌 特斯拉跌超4% 周三美股三大股指收盘普跌，道指跌0.47%，纳指跌1.79%，标普跌1.14%。英伟达跌超3%，苹果 跌近1%，亚马逊 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 期货研究 金 融 期 货 国债期货：底部震荡，曲线走平 研 究 | 期货研究 2 2025 年 月 18 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 【基本面跟踪】 | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | | 货 5 年期主力合约上涨 0.06%，国债期货 2 年期主力合约上涨 0.01%。 | | | | 资金方面，隔夜 shibor 报 1.2760%，较前一交易日上涨 0.2bp，7 天 | shibor 报 1.4290%，较前一交 | | | 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | tangli2@gtht.com | | | 月 日，国债期货 年期主力合约上涨 12 30 0.63%，国债期货 10 | 年期主力合约上涨 0.10%，国债期 | 17 | | | 王力合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 振幅(%) | 成交 | 持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-17 China Monetary Policy Outlook: Moderate Easing 2026 年中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松 | 张 陆 | Zhang Lu | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03105230 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0021341 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | | Cheng Xiaoqing | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0018635 | | 张菁 | Zhang Jing | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Consulti ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to resume the trading of government bonds after a 10-month suspension, indicating a positive shift in the bond market and a need for liquidity support [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Resuming Bond Trading - The resumption is attributed to a phase of alleviated interest rate risks in the bond market and the necessity to provide liquidity support [3]. - The initial suspension in January was due to overly optimistic market sentiment and rapid declines in government bond yields, which increased interest rate risks and widened the China-U.S. interest rate differential [3]. - Since July, a shift in risk appetite has led to capital outflows from the bond market, causing a rapid increase in the 10-year government bond yield from 1.6% to over 1.8%, stabilizing around this level for a month [3]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, has created a favorable context for the PBOC to restart bond trading [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The resumption of bond trading signals a defined upper limit for bond yields, suggesting limited room for further increases in the 10-year government bond yield [4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at enhancing the financial function of government bonds and improving the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [4]. - The recent rise in short-term bond yields has led to a narrowing of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, indicating a potential steepening of the yield curve [4]. - In the short term, the PBOC's bond purchases may focus on the shorter end of the yield curve, with the long end requiring further observation of the scale of bond purchases and equity market performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the government bond yield curve as a foundation for the financial market, highlighting recent measures taken by the Ministry of Finance to enhance liquidity in the secondary market for government bonds [2][3]. Summary by Sections Government Bond Market Operations - The Ministry of Finance announced operations to support the market for government bonds, specifically selling 2.7 billion yuan of 2025 10-year bonds and 2.8 billion yuan of 2025 12-year bonds to improve liquidity and reflect market supply and demand [2][3]. Current Market Conditions - The article discusses the ongoing asset shortage and declining policy interest rates, which have increased investor preference for government bonds, leading to a liquidity squeeze in the bond market [2][3][4]. - In July, there was a net decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits, indicating a shift in financial asset distribution among residents [3]. Importance of a Healthy Yield Curve - A well-functioning government bond yield curve is crucial for the stability and predictability of the financial system, especially as household asset exposure risks change [3][4]. - The Ministry of Finance's operations aim to balance supply and demand in the market, preventing excessive price increases and ensuring that the yield curve reflects market conditions [3][4]. Challenges in the Market - The article identifies two main issues contributing to the current market's risk-averse behavior: low policy interest rates leading to credit tightening and insufficient capacity to generate effective risk assets, exacerbating the asset shortage [4][5]. - The focus on safe assets like government bonds has resulted in liquidity problems in the secondary market, as investors prefer to hold rather than trade these securities [4][5]. Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the government bond yield curve and market pricing mechanisms, it is essential to address low interest rates and promote a more open economic environment that encourages risk-taking and innovation among market participants [5][6]. - The article advocates for comprehensive reforms to eliminate barriers to market efficiency and foster a competitive legal market order, ultimately improving investment returns and addressing the asset shortage [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of improving the government bond yield curve as a foundation for the financial market [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance has initiated operations to support the market for government bonds, specifically through selling operations for 2025 government bonds, with amounts of 270 million and 280 million respectively [1][2] - The current market conditions, including a significant decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, highlight the need for a healthy government bond yield curve to ensure financial stability [2] Group 2 - The government bond market is experiencing liquidity issues due to a strong preference for safe assets among investors, driven by an ongoing asset shortage [3][4] - The Ministry of Finance's selling operations aim to address supply-demand imbalances in the market, preventing excessive price increases and ensuring liquidity [2][3] - A comprehensive approach is needed to reform and open up various sectors, removing barriers to market efficiency and enhancing the marginal return on investments [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the government bond yield curve and establishing a solid pricing foundation for the financial market, which requires addressing the benefits and drawbacks of low interest rate policies and fostering market participants' risk-taking spirit and creativity [1][4][5] Group 1: Government Bond Market Operations - The Ministry of Finance announced operations to support the market for government bonds, specifically through selling operations for the 2025 government bonds, with amounts of 270 million and 280 million respectively [1][2] - The government bond market support operations are not new, having been implemented since the issuance of the operational rules in September 2016, and are increasingly regularized due to recent changes in the financial market [1][2] - The current selling operations reflect a supply-demand imbalance in the market for key maturity government bonds, aiming to prevent excessive price increases and improve liquidity in the secondary market [2][3] Group 2: Financial Asset Distribution Changes - In July, there was a net decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits, highlighting the significance of a healthy government bond yield curve as the distribution of household financial assets changes [2] - The shift in household asset exposure risks necessitates a more stable and predictable financial system, which places higher demands on the healthy operation of the government bond yield curve [2] Group 3: Market Pricing Mechanism - To create a healthy liquidity environment for the government bond market, it is crucial to establish a sound pricing mechanism and reduce transaction costs, allowing the yield curve to effectively cover risk exposures [3][4] - The current market's risk-averse behavior is driven by a persistent asset shortage and low policy interest rates, leading to liquidity issues in the government bond secondary market [3][4] - The article suggests that addressing low interest rates and enhancing the marginal investment return is essential for guiding changes in the government bond yield curve [4][5] Group 4: Structural Reforms - Comprehensive reforms and opening up various sectors are necessary to broaden the productive boundaries of market participants and eliminate non-market barriers to effective market operation [4][5] - The government bond market support operations are seen as a starting point, with the ultimate goal being to improve the yield curve and market pricing foundation through deeper reforms [5]

Group 1 - The yield curve for U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds has steepened, with the spread widening to 60 basis points, marking the largest spread since April of this year [1]