简单说，金价屡创新高，带动了整个贵金属板块；而新能源、光伏、电动车这些高科技产业，对白银的 需求更是爆炸式增长。它既是"避险资产"，又是"工业金属"，双重逻辑加持，想不火都难。 历史首次突破50美元大关，直接站上51美元/盎司，创下近14年新高，一天就狂飙超过4%！这势头，简 直拦不住。 仔细一看，今年白银才是真"黑马"，累计涨幅已经超过70%，把涨了50%的黄金都甩在身后。虽然后面 小幅回落至49.7美元附近，但这波行情绝对值得关注。 为啥白银这么猛？专家点出关键：这是"金融属性+产业需求"的双轮驱动！ 机会来了？但切记，投资有风险，千万别追高。专家建议，如果出现回调，可以在关键支撑位分批布 局，严控风险，把握中长期趋势。 白银时代，真的来了吗？ 再加上美联储降息预期、美元走弱和地缘风险，资金和情绪一起把白银推上了快车道。 机构更是大胆预测，花旗已经把白银目标价上调到55美元！有分析认为，虽然短期可能震荡，但中长期 上涨趋势很坚实，年底前甚至可能冲击55美元新高。 ...

国内"双节"期间，国际黄金期价再创历史新高。Wind数据显示，10月8日，伦敦现货黄金盘中最高价突 破每盎司4000美元关口，创历史新高；10月7日，纽约黄金期货主力合约价格也突破4000美元，创历史 新高。相关产品——建信上海金ETF(518860)近3天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"6445.76万元。 建信上海金ETF(518860)，场外联接(A：009033；C：009034；D：023685)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 浙商证券表示，2025年以来黄金的这轮快速上涨行情可以理解为三大因素共同驱动：其一，美联储降息 预期持续升温；其二，各种地缘风险事件发酵；其三，在逆全球化背景下，各国央行持续增持黄金且减 持美债。而近日美国政府停摆则进一步推动了黄金的需求。从三大驱动因素的角度分析，虽然当前金价 再创新高，但主升浪或仍可持续。 近期贵金属价格有所波动，投资者需做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位理性投资。 方正证券指出，美国政府停摆叠加就业数据疲软，强化了美联储开启连续降息周期的预期，叠加滞胀风 险上升，金银将继续走出长牛行情。政府停摆导致9月非农及CPI ...

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：OPEC+11月增产幅度较温和 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-10-09 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：OPEC+11月开始每天增产13.7万桶原油，增产幅度相对温和。本周石化继续调整。持续关注反 内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌0.38%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅0.88%。 ◼ 原油：原油跌，美原油库存增加，汽油库存增加 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格跌、价差涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数跌，织机开工率涨 ◼ 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格平稳，库存稳 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。 本周石化表现较差，较上周 ...

ગ્રેટ ic = + r | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交虽 | | 昨日持仓虽 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1110.6 | -0.39 | -64.1 | 14129 | | 24782 | -45-2 | | | EC2512 | | 1731.9 | -1.39 | -685.4 | 15454 | | 20771 | 88 | | | EC2602 | | 1642.8 | -1.45 | -596.3 | 4079 | | 8534 | -318 | | | EC2604 | | 1254.2 | 0.10 | -207.7 | | 1251 | 9231 | 121 | | | EC2606 | | 1469.3 | 1.14 | -422.8 | | 77 | 899 | -31 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 ...

芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：国庆假期，海外市场由美国政府停摆和日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁两大事件主导。联邦政府停摆期间，避险情绪升温，同时非农就业等重要 经济数据暂停发布，市场交易"没消息就是没消息"，对美联储"盲降利率"的预期升温，叠加高市早苗胜选带来的日本"宽财政+宽货币"预期，共同带动黄 金和比特币续创历史新高。向前看，全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软 着陆走向温和过热的概率加大。就市场策略而言，短期美股风险偏好料因政府关门的持续走弱，中期在右翼+财政和货币双宽松带来的地缘风险+经济过 热+法定货币信用走弱的宏观环境组合下，大类资产表现预计金>铜>股。 大类资产：比特币与黄金再创历史新高，美股连续上涨，全球股市普涨，表现为典型的"宽财政+宽货币"交易。国庆假期前后（9月29日至10月6日），全 球大类资产的表现体现为典型的"宽财政+宽货币"组合交易：比特币与黄金为首的大宗商品领涨，全球股市普涨，美债利率震荡，美元指数上涨、欧元与 日元下跌。其中，美国政府陷入停摆并引致美国重 ...

9月30日国际市场消息，现货黄金价格日内跌幅进一步扩大至 1%，短线走弱趋势明显。作为传统避险资产，黄金价格走势往往与美元、利率预期以及地缘 风险密切相关。本次回调既反映出市场对美联储政策预期的再度调整，也体现了投资者风险偏好的阶段性回升。本文将从行情回顾、驱动因素、市场解读与 未来展望四个方面，分析黄金短期承压的背后逻辑。 根据交易行情显示，9月30日欧洲交易时段，现货黄金价格由盘初小幅下跌逐步扩大跌幅，日内跌幅达到 1%。在过去一周，黄金价格震荡加剧，多次冲高 回落，反映出市场情绪的反复。 1. 美元与利率预期走强 近期美国经济数据表现相对稳健，就业与通胀指标未出现明显回落，使得市场对美联储年内降息幅度的预期有所降温。美元指数走强，10年期美债收益率升 至相对高位，均对黄金价格形成压制。 2. 风险偏好回升 部分风险资产（如美股与部分新兴市场股指）表现稳健，投资者情绪有所恢复。风险偏好上升，削弱了对黄金的配置需求。 3. 技术面因素 黄金此前在关键阻力位附近遇阻，多空资金博弈激烈。日内跌幅扩大至1%，也可能与部分技术性抛盘、止损单触发有关，加剧了短期波动。 4. 地缘与宏观变量的暂时缓和 近期市场对部分地 ...

2025年09月30日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价大跌，布伦特12合约跌2.98%。供应端处于伊拉克库尔德复运、OPEC+进一步增产带 来的即期增量与地缘风险并存的多空交织状态，但总体石油的累库进程依然明确，三季度累积幅度 2.4%包括原油累库0.5%、成品油累库5.5%，且随着炼厂开工率的季节性回落，上周累库结构已向上 游原油集中。油价上行至震荡区间高位后进一步走强的空间有限，但十一前后外围市场围绕俄乌、 伊朗的地缘犹动仍在，继续持有期货空头与看涨期权相结合的保护性策略。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势表现。本周关注美国政府停摆的解决进展以及非农在内的一系列关键数据。美 国劳工统计局发布政府停摆应急计划，将在政府停摆期间暂停所有运营，不发布经济数据。贵金属 中期偏强趋势未改但国庆期间波动风险较高,建议离场观望。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价扩大涨势，贵金属提振交易情绪，节中市场关注政府关门风险,一旦僵局可能担追非 农就业等数据公布。铜市继续消化Grasberg基本铁席两个季度供应对平衡表的影响。国内观铜上调 到82210元，上海贴水5元，节前SMM社库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Crude oil supply is in a mixed state of immediate increase and geopolitical risks, with a clear inventory accumulation process. Oil prices have limited upside space, and a protective strategy combining short futures and call options is recommended [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, showing a short-term strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil has abundant supply and weak demand, mainly following cost fluctuations [2]. - Asphalt market has increased pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm, with a decline in overall inventory levels. The subsequent demand is boosted by seasonal factors, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. - Liquefied petroleum gas has a marginal improvement in supply and demand, with an expected increase in overall consumption. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly from the previous bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply is in a multi - empty intertwined state with inventory accumulation of 2.4% in the third quarter, including 0.5% for crude oil and 5.5% for refined oil. The inventory structure has shifted to upstream crude oil. A protective strategy is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Middle East shipments are high, but geopolitical factors cause concerns about supply reduction, supporting the FU trend [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [2]. Asphalt - Pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, with a decrease in refinery and social inventories. The October production plan has a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Import arrivals in the South China region have decreased due to typhoons, and overall consumption is expected to increase. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly [3].

Group 1: XAU/USD Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices experienced fluctuations, breaking through 3783.6 before retreating, with a daily range of 493 points and a small bullish close [3] - Current early morning prices have breached the 3791 to 3798.6 range, approaching the 3800 mark, supported by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and de-dollarization trends [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3810/3815, with support at 3758/3735, suggesting a strategy of selling at 3810/3815 and buying on dips to 3760 [4] Group 2: EUR/USD Analysis - The analysis notes a loss on a short position due to the price reaching 1.1707, with a daily close showing a small bullish trend influenced by rising French debt and EU trade proposals [6] - Resistance levels are set at 1.180/1.184, while support is at 1.161/1.166, with a recommendation to buy at 1.169/1.170 [8] Group 3: GBP/USD Analysis - The GBP/USD analysis highlights a loss on a short position as the price reached 1.3412, with attention on inflation impacts and US-UK tariff negotiations [10] - Resistance levels are identified at 1.350/1.355 and support at 1.332/1.337, with a buy recommendation at 1.337/1.338 [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY Analysis - The GBP/JPY market saw upward movement with a high of 200.5 before retreating, maintaining an upward trend above key support levels [14] - Resistance is noted at 201.3/200.7, with support at 199.1/198.6, and a buy recommendation on dips to 199.8-199.9 [15] Group 5: Fundamental Reminders - Key economic indicators to watch include UK mortgage approvals, Eurozone economic sentiment, US existing home sales, and comments from Federal Reserve officials [17]