gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月26日 (原油) 下半年以来全球原油去库2%、成品油累库2.9%，总体石油库存小幅下降0.2%基本持平，暂未延续一 李度2.5%、二季度2.2%的累库速度，平衡表预估的三季度供需盈余放大未得到证实，体现出旺季需 求的超预期韧性，鲍威尔在央行年会的讲话亦提升9月降息预期，风险资产情绪相应受到提振。当前 原油期货及期权基金净多持仓已降至区间低位,油价对地缘风险仍相对敏感,上周五特朗普表示若 两周内俄乌不举行直接会晤仍将加大制裁力度，单边价格短期仍以偏强看待。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话表示风险平衡变化可能要求调整政 策立场，市场定价9月降息基本板上钉钉，不过美联储官员表态存分歧,后续经济走向仍存不确定 性。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中，区间上方存关键阻力，维持回调买入多头思路。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜阴线调整，短线铜价受美联储9月降息概率、国内精铜消费替代与2509期权到期推涨至 7.95万上方。关注今日现铜报价。美国将铜列入2025关键矿物清单，可使相关项目更有资格获得联 邦资金支持或适用简化许可 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价继续收涨，其中 WTI 10月合约收盘上涨 1.14 美元至 64.8 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.79%。布伦特 10 1.07 68.8 月合约收盘上涨 美元至 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.58%。SC2509 以 492.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.8 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅 1.19%。特朗普上周五再次警告，如果两周内在乌克兰 | | | | 问题上未能朝着和平解决取得进展，他将对俄罗斯实施制裁。他 | | | | 还表示可能因印度购买俄罗斯石油而对其实施严厉关税。俄罗斯 | | | | Novoshakhtinsk 炼厂因遭遇无人机袭击而起火，该地区代理州长 | | | | 表示，截至周日大火已持续四天。该炼厂出售的燃料主要用于出 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 口，年加工能力为 500 万吨石油，约 10 万桶/日。过去几周，俄罗 | | | | 斯的友谊输油管道和其他设施遭遇袭击。在理想的条件下，俄 ...

观 | 评 | 金银反弹，上周杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实值得我们调整政策立场，被认为 | | --- | --- | | 论 | 是较为鸽派的姿态，增强9月降息预期。美国7月通胀数据呈现反弹，近期美俄谈判释放的积极 | | | 信号令地缘风险降温，金银一度承压。此前7月非农数据不及预期，前值大幅下修。美联储内部 | | 及 | 观点呈现分裂，特朗普通过人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整 | | 策 | 体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国央行持续增持黄金， | | 略 | 黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑，当下金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现偏强走势。 | | 免 | 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 | | 责 | （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） | | 声 | | | 明 | 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在经济表现不及预期，政策判断失误等风险 | | 。 | | | | 分析师声明 | | | 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基 ...

| 国家期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月25日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | なな☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 上周原油市场上涨，布伦特10合约涨2.51%，SC10合约涨1.13%。特朗普分别与普京和泽连斯基会谈后，俄乌和 平协议的推动未如市场此前预期的顺利,8月以来乌克兰再次频繁袭击俄罗斯炼厂、输油管道及油码头等能源基础 设施，市场此前定价的俄乌地续缓和走向出现修正。此前我们谈到海外原油期货及期权净多持仓已达区间低位, 对利多地缘风险仍相对敏感,上周五特朗普谈及若两周内俄乌不举行直接会晤,将实施大规模制裁。短期油价单 边风险偏向上行， ...

2025.08.25-08.29 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：760－800区间进行 网格交易。 沪金期货整体趋势处在横盘阶段，当前可能处于开始阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格走势呈现震荡偏弱走势，周内涨跌幅在-0.36%至0.32%间 波动，主要受美联储降息预期反复、地缘风险降温压制短期避险需求， 叠加ETF资金流出与库存增加，共同主导价格区间震荡。下周需重点关 注杰克逊霍尔会议鲍威尔讲话对政策路径的指引、美国经济数据对降息 预期的影响，以及地缘局势新变化。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 n 本周策略建议 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v | | 黄金(au) v | | --- | --- | --- | | 盈利席位 主力资金 : 品种诊断 | 机构观点 | | | | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver, and recent positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut. Although the employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts all declined, with the decline rates of Shanghai gold futures at -0.32% and that of Shanghai silver futures at -1.37% and -1.35% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of spot gold and silver also decreased, with the decline rate of London silver reaching -1.66%. The price differences between different contracts and the ratios of Shanghai gold/silver to London gold/silver changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX changed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory increasing by 11,020 kilograms and the COMEX's gold inventory decreasing by 17,425.86 ounces [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators**: The US dollar index rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 index fell by -0.59%, the US Treasury yield decreased by -0.92%, and the positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased slightly [2]. Macro News - Trump stated that the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO. The US planned a tripartite meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest [3]. - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50% [3]. - Japan and the US planned to closely discuss the implementation of a $550 billion investment in the US and set up a mechanism to verify national interests [3]. - The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the US in July increased by 5.2%, reaching 1.428 million units, higher than market expectations [3]. Comments and Strategies - The unexpected inflation data in the US last week pressured gold and silver, and the positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut [4]. - Previously, the US Treasury Secretary believed that there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, but the inflation data has changed this expectation [4]. - The employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, but the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently awaiting guidance on future monetary easing paths, with short-term gold price expectations remaining volatile due to mixed signals from macroeconomic data and upcoming central bank meetings [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Futures indicates that the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is crucial, as Fed Chair Powell's speech may not provide clear guidance on future interest rate paths, leading to a volatile gold price outlook [1]. - Zijin Tianfeng Futures notes that the delay in interest rate cuts could lead to a more optimistic outlook for gold, especially if the economy suffers due to delayed monetary easing [1][2]. - StoneX has raised its annual average gold price forecast by 1% to $3,115 per ounce, but expects limited upside unless a "black swan" event occurs, indicating market saturation [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Influence - Five Minerals Futures highlights that geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, negatively impacting gold prices, while Powell's upcoming speech is expected to significantly influence gold and silver price movements [2]. - Heraeus analysts report a decline in central bank gold demand, with the World Gold Council noting a drop to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025, the lowest since Q2 2022, but anticipate that potential Fed rate cuts could still drive gold prices higher [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - PX market is strong, and its cost supports PTA. PTA market shows a slight increase with a minor fluctuation in the spot basis. PTA processing fees are in the low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season make it difficult for unplanned device maintenance to boost prices. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains stable. The supply side of bottle - chips has low - level operations, with sufficient market spot supply. Downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On August 18, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.42 per barrel, up 0.99% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $66.60 per barrel, up 1.14%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton, up 0.64%; the settlement price was 4726 yuan per ton, up 0.38%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4696 yuan per ton, up 0.43%; the settlement price was 4680 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4659 yuan per ton, up 0.11% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6760 yuan per ton, up 1.08%; the settlement price was 6702 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6804 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 6756 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6581 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5928 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the settlement price was 5896 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5856 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5844 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5940 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6475 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On August 18, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 77.67%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.30%, up 0.42%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.80%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On August 18, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 45.74%, up 9.42%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 40.41%, down 9.21%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 75.00%, up 21.43% [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months. Two 800,000 - ton PX devices in South China will be restarted soon [2]. Important News - The US - Russia meeting ended on Friday. Although no substantial agreement was reached, the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is expected to accelerate, and the expectation of US sanctions against Russia has relaxed, reducing geopolitical risks. The PX supply is recovering, and the current PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Geopolitical risks pushed up crude oil prices. The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.97% at $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum dropped 0.71% to $2588.50 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00 per ton, and LME copper decreased 0.22% to $9752.00 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures contracts closed mixed. Rapeseed meal and PX rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 2% [5]. - US agricultural futures: soybeans fell 0.24%, corn declined 0.20%, soybean oil rose 0.11%, soybean meal dropped 1.06%, and wheat decreased 0.84% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity [9]. - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [10]. - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue [10]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting domestic consumption [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that offset - printing paper futures will be launched on September 10, 2025, with specific trading rules [12]. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 due to increased South American supply [14]. - A Russian refinery suspended production after a drone attack [15]. Metal Futures - A large recycled lead smelter in East China plans to halt production for a month, and a small one postponed restart [17]. - Indonesia will change its mining approval system from once every three years to once a year [17]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments from August 11 - 17, 2025, totaled 34.066 million tons, up 3.599 million tons week - on - week [19]. - Steel inventories in 21 cities increased 2.3% in early August [21]. - Coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have more stringent production cuts than steel mills [21]. - Coke prices in Shandong are set to rise starting August 19 [21]. - Manganese ore inventories at major ports decreased by 23,000 tons [22]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed measures to stabilize the real - estate market [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased 34.5% month - on - month [25]. - South Africa's sugarcane production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.7 million tons, up 7.47% [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.34 million tons in the week ending August 15 [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 15 increased 0.88% month - on - month [25]. - Palm oil commercial inventories in key regions rose 2.92% week - on - week as of August 15 [26]. - Brazil's second - season corn harvest rate in the central - southern region reached 94% as of last Thursday [26]. - US private exporters sold 124,000 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 season [27]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending August 14 were 473,605 tons [29]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68% as of August 17 [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700, driven by various types of funds [31]. - A - share market improvement led to increased brokerage account openings, with a 30% - 50% year - on - year increase [31]. - Multiple sources of incremental funds are flowing into the A - share market [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.65% [32]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching a special voting channel for margin trading accounts [32]. - Tushare's service was interrupted due to a business dispute [32]. - Leapmotor achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan in H1 and raised its sales target [32]. Industry - The State Administration of Radio and Television will improve content supply in the broadcasting and TV sector [33]. - In July, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities dropped 0.77% month - on - month [33]. - Auto dealers faced losses in H1 2025, with a less optimistic outlook [35]. - 49 models from 13 auto companies met data - security requirements [36]. - China's smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% in Q2 2025 [36]. - The 2025 movie summer - vacation box office exceeded 10 billion yuan [36]. - The food cold - chain logistics demand reached 192 million tons in H1 2025, up 4.35% [36]. Overseas - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium is awaited, with different expectations for Powell's speech [37]. - India plans a tax reform in response to potential US tariffs [37]. - Germany requires the US to lower auto tariffs for a broader trade deal [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.5%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [40]. - Japan's stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.77% [40]. - Some Chinese concept stocks may be involved in "pump - and - dump" schemes [41]. - Douyu's Q2 revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - Multiple futures and options will be launched on September 10, 2025 [44]. - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices [44]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed [44]. - London base metals mostly declined [44]. Bonds - Bond yields in China generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - The trading association is investigating misappropriation of debt - financing funds [45]. - The central treasury cash - management deposit auction had a winning amount of 120 billion yuan at a 1.78% rate [47]. - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury - bond market - making support operations on August 19 [48]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased [48]. Foreign Exchange - China and Thailand renewed a currency - swap agreement [49]. - The on - shore RMB strengthened against the US dollar on Monday [50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.31% in New York trading [50]. 4. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include euro - zone June current account, Canada's July CPI, etc. [53] - Multiple events are scheduled for August 19, including central - bank operations, conferences, and corporate earnings announcements [55]