研究报告 铁矿周报 后市展望：上周，商品期货市场，主要商品期货价格多数上涨，金融 市场情绪相对偏暖，基本面缺乏驱动，宏观面构成盘面主要支撑，铁矿近 期预计维持偏强震荡走势。 单边：逢低震荡偏多，关注 800 元/吨支撑。 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2026 1 19 | 年 | 月 | 日星期一 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 3.17%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.84%，环比减少 0.47%，同比增加 1.66%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.48%，环 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 326,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 335,260.00 CNY, marking a 2.49% increase [1] - The current trend for tin prices is characterized by a volatile upward movement, with institutions providing mixed forecasts for future performance. New Lake Futures noted a weak overall consumption environment, with a decrease in orders from soldering companies and a decline in operating rates, while supply remained stable [2] - Guizhou Futures highlighted that the official manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.1 in December, indicating economic resilience, and that there has been a significant reduction in social inventory of tin ingots, which decreased by 1,058 tons to 9,309 tons as of December 31, 2025 [3] Group 2 - New Lake Futures suggested that the short-term supply and demand fundamentals for tin are weak, indicating potential downward pressure on prices, while the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic due to expected supply shortages [2] - Guizhou Futures indicated that the short-term bullish factors for the tin market are limited, with prices expected to fluctuate at high levels, and emphasized the importance of monitoring downstream replenishment after price declines [3] - National Investment Trust Futures mentioned that despite ongoing conflicts in eastern Congo, there is no evidence of impact on major mine supplies, and they are monitoring potential mining conferences that may influence market dynamics [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is generally positive. The lower - than - expected US CPI in November boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December has a positive tone, which is expected to improve domestic consumption. The raw material supply is tight and may spread to the smelting end, with a risk of supply contraction. The current supply - demand of basic metals is relatively loose, but the future is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, while high prices restrain consumption. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disturbances are expected to drive up the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The long - term processing fee for copper ore is settled, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. SMM reports that the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. The CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on December 22 was at a discount to the contract. As of December 22, the copper inventory increased. The LME plans to set and implement position limits on key and related contracts from July 6, 2026. Macro factors and supply constraints support copper prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upside. The outlook is for copper prices to be oscillatingly strong [9][10][11]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The over - supply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. On December 22, the spot prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts decreased. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The cost support is weak, and the warehouse receipts digestion faces pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [11][12][13]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the average price of SMM AOO increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars changed. In November, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. The "aluminum for copper" standard work has been launched, and the aluminum ingot premium for Japan in Q1 2026 has increased. The macro - environment is positive, the supply is tight in the long - term, and the short - term high prices suppress demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [14][15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the prices of related products were stable or changed slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production, and the import of scrap aluminum in October increased. The cost support is strong, but the supply may be reduced due to policies, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - and medium - term [16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory trends at home and abroad are different, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the spot prices in different regions were at premiums to the contract. As of December 22, the zinc inventory increased. In November, China's zinc concentrate imports increased. The macro - environment is positive, the short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [19][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the rebound space of lead prices is limited. On December 22, the prices of related products changed slightly, and the inventory decreased. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption, and the operating rate of some enterprises has weakened. The supply may increase as the maintenance of smelters ends, and the demand is weakening. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the nickel ore RKAB, and nickel prices have rebounded. On December 22, the LME and domestic nickel inventories changed. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula and reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target. The current supply is still under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. If the RKAB plan is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the rebound of nickel prices, the stainless - steel futures price has recovered. On December 22, the price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target. The cost has some support, the production may decline in December, and the inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [26][27]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns and low inventory levels make tin prices oscillatingly strong. On December 22, the warehouse receipts and positions of tin increased, and the spot price rose. The supply from Myanmar has recovered, but the supply in Indonesia may be restricted in Q1 2026, and African supply is limited. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and industry development. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong [27][28]. Group 4: Market Monitoring - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the CITICS Futures commodity index increased by 1.10%, 1.34%, and 0.79% respectively. The PPI commodity index increased by 0.63%. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.85%. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date growth rates of the non - ferrous metal index were +0.85%, +2.42%, +5.61%, and +12.36% respectively [152][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - view is expected to be positive, with the Fed's actions and China's central economic work conference setting a good tone. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The raw material supply is tight and may affect the smelting end. The current supply - demand improvement of basic metals has slowed down, but the future supply - demand is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, and positive demand expectations may boost basic metals, but high prices and volatile Fed expectations may limit price increases. In the long term, potential stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up their prices. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin [2]. 3. Summary of Each Variety Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [7][8][9]. - **Analysis**: The US unemployment rate is high, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT plans to reduce production in 2026. Demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory is rising. LME's plan to set position limits weakens the upward momentum of copper prices [7][8][9]. Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile [9][10][11]. - **Analysis**: Macro sentiment affects the market. The supply reduction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. The warehouse receipts are decreasing, but there is pressure on the price due to factors such as expired warehouse receipts and regional premium adjustments. The price may fluctuate more as more funds focus on it [9][10][11]. Aluminum - **View**: Mozal Aluminum Plant may shut down, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. Domestically, production capacity and operating rate are high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply. High prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term is volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [15]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply may decrease due to environmental policies and unclear policies. Demand may weaken after the end of the year - end car sales season. With cost support and stable supply - demand, the short - and medium - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **View**: LME zinc inventory has risen to nearly 100,000 tons, and zinc prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [18][19]. - **Analysis**: The macro - view is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile, and the long - term price may decline due to increased supply and limited demand growth [18][19]. Lead - **View**: LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and lead prices fluctuate downward, with an overall outlook of being volatile [20][21]. - **Analysis**: The spot premium is rising, and the supply is affected by smelter overhauls. Demand is relatively stable with some battery enterprises planning to increase production. However, the increase in LME inventory suppresses the price [20][21]. Nickel - **View**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices rebound, with an overall outlook of being volatile [21][23][26]. - **Analysis**: The current supply is still under pressure, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, if Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the oversupply situation in 2026 may improve significantly [21][23][26]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The rebound of nickel prices drives up the stainless - steel market, with an overall outlook of being range - bound [27][28]. - **Analysis**: The cost is supported by raw materials, but production is expected to decrease in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the price is likely to be range - bound [27][28]. Tin - **View**: The downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate upward, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish [28][29]. - **Analysis**: Supply is restricted by issues such as slow复产 in mines, RKAB approvals in Indonesia, and political instability in Africa. Demand is growing in industries like semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles, which will drive up the tin price [28][29]. 4. Market Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on December 17, 2025. For example, the commodity index was 2262.95, up 0.56% [155]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on December 17, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.74%, a 5 - day increase of 0.25%, a 1 - month increase of 3.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.52% [156].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects short - term strong adjustment of Shanghai Tin, with a focus on the range of 315,000 - 325,000 yuan/ton. The macro - situation includes the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, and the supply side has a relatively tight domestic tin ore import supply. The demand side shows that downstream has purchasing willingness when tin prices decline, but high prices suppress transactions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 320,600 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,010 dollars/ton, up 160 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 42,785 lots, down 4,714 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 430 lots, down 1,183 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 3,655 tons, up 605 tons, and the cancelled warrants are 165 tons, down 95 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stock of tin is 6,865 tons (weekly), up 506 tons, and the warehouse receipts are 7,024 tons (daily), down 127 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 320,000 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 320,770 yuan/ton, up 3,630 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 308,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 312,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 205,370 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 124.54 million tons, up 13.61 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons. [3] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with three voting members opposing. It is still expected to cut rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars. China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly expanded. Hassett said Trump would make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation shows that the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. The impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined due to the worsening internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic refineries' raw material winter reserves have started, with a preference for domestic zinc concentrates. Refinery profits have shrunk, and production is expected to drop significantly. Overseas supply remains tight, and China is expected to turn into a net exporter, easing domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, and there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. The zinc price has corrected recently, the trading atmosphere has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the LME zinc inventory has rebounded. Technically, the price has corrected with shrinking volume and reduced positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo high - level adjustments, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 23,000 yuan/ton mark [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,995 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,075 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 200,606 lots, down 2,682 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,858 lots, down 1,296 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 91,916 tons, down 4,000 tons, and the LME inventory is 59,800 tons, up 1,650 tons [2] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,110 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,060 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 115 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 158.52 dollars/ton, down 4.47 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,710 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, up 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, down 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons, and the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.87%, down 1.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.93%, down 1.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, down 0.21 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.85%, down 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline in PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. The processing margin remains at a low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will mainly oscillate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in the equipment [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated and declined, and the spot basis continued to decline. In the long - term, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol. In the near - term, it has improved due to a reduction in some supplies. The short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content provided in the given text. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures oscillated down, spot negotiation general, basis slightly stronger, some polyester factories made bids, and a major supplier sold goods. Transaction prices and basis for different months were given [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4605, 01 - contract basis was - 65, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, changing from long to short [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price to follow cost side, basis to fluctuate, focus on equipment changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: Price center oscillated down, basis declined, night - session opened slightly higher and then weakened, and some traders actively bought far - month futures [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3955, 01 - contract basis was 48, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China was 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. - Expectation: Long - term inventory pressure exists, short - term price to operate weakly, focus on supply changes and warehouse receipt outflow [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No content provided in the given text. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were presented, including PTA capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory. For example, in November 2025, PTA capacity was 9472, production was 638, and the ending inventory was 296 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were provided, covering EG production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory. For instance, in November 2025, EG production was 58, total supply was 244, and port inventory change was 12 [12]. - **Price and Margin Data**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the margins of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products also changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 31.70 yuan/ton [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ななな [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: 女女女 [1] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose, and short - term demand release cannot provide continuous driving force. The cost and macro - aspects lack clear guidance [2]. - Different chemical products face various supply - demand situations and price trends, with most products under downward pressure or in a state of uncertainty [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene demand has improved temporarily, but overall supply is abundant, and short - term demand cannot drive continuously. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increases, and demand shows weakness. For polypropylene, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price is weak, with a small decline in East China spot and stable Shandong quotes. There are short - term consolidation and medium - term negatives. Benzene - styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply - demand, and the price is under pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices decreased. PX supply rises, PTA load drops, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol supply has growth pressure, and demand is expected to weaken. Short - fiber demand may decline, and bottle - chip demand fades [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol price continues to fall, with high expected arrivals in November and weak downstream demand. Urea price drops, with a weak supply - demand situation and a high probability of price decline in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC price drops, with weak cost support, high supply, and low demand. Caustic soda fluctuates, with good liquid chlorine prices, but high inventory pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price weakens slightly, with cost increases and high - pressure supply in the long term. Glass price drops, with cost increases, reduced profit, and low - inventory replenishment sentiment [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.89% to 15,250 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released easing signals. The better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in September have supported the correction of industrial factors, boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the rubber market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.23% to 11,150 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal, and the better - than - expected new car production and sales data in September have corrected industrial factors and enhanced the confidence of long - position holders in the rubber market [7]. 4. Other Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The oscillating and strong/weak view only applies to the intraday view, not the short - term and medium - term views [4].