投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 静待宏观面进一步明朗，基本金属震荡 整固 有⾊观点：静待宏观⾯进⼀步明朗，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：12月美联储利率决议符合预期，美联储调降明年降息次数，但 将购买国债，实际动作较为积极，并且鲍威尔排除了明年加息的可能性； 12月10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国 内消费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面，但上周末前美联储 官员回怼特朗普政府，投资者对美联储降息预期出现反复。原料端延续偏 紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱， 12月初汽车销售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预 计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期， 供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，中央经济工作会议定调积极，需求预期改善 有望提振基本金属，但高价对消费抑制及美联储降息预期反复对价格进一 步涨势构成约束，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量 刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期， 看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：库存持续累积，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects short - term strong adjustment of Shanghai Tin, with a focus on the range of 315,000 - 325,000 yuan/ton. The macro - situation includes the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, and the supply side has a relatively tight domestic tin ore import supply. The demand side shows that downstream has purchasing willingness when tin prices decline, but high prices suppress transactions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin futures main contract is 320,600 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 40,010 dollars/ton, up 160 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 42,785 lots, down 4,714 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 430 lots, down 1,183 lots. LME tin's total inventory is 3,655 tons, up 605 tons, and the cancelled warrants are 165 tons, down 95 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stock of tin is 6,865 tons (weekly), up 506 tons, and the warehouse receipts are 7,024 tons (daily), down 127 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 320,000 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 320,770 yuan/ton, up 3,630 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 308,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 312,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan, with a processing fee of 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 205,370 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 124.54 million tons, up 13.61 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, up 2.5 million tons. [3] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with three voting members opposing. It is still expected to cut rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars. China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly expanded. Hassett said Trump would make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [3]

预计沪锌高位调整，关注2.3关口争夺。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需采购为主，近期锌价回调，成交氛围有所回暖，现货升水持稳，国内库存下 降明显；LME锌库存回升，现货升水有所下调。技术面，缩量减仓价格回调，多头氛围下降。观点参考： 免责声明 沪锌产业日报 2025-12-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22995 | -80 01-02月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -5 | 20 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3075 | -14 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. The processing margin remains at a low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will mainly oscillate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in the equipment [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated and declined, and the spot basis continued to decline. In the long - term, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol. In the near - term, it has improved due to a reduction in some supplies. The short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content provided in the given text. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures oscillated down, spot negotiation general, basis slightly stronger, some polyester factories made bids, and a major supplier sold goods. Transaction prices and basis for different months were given [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4605, 01 - contract basis was - 65, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, changing from long to short [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price to follow cost side, basis to fluctuate, focus on equipment changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: Price center oscillated down, basis declined, night - session opened slightly higher and then weakened, and some traders actively bought far - month futures [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3955, 01 - contract basis was 48, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China was 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. - Expectation: Long - term inventory pressure exists, short - term price to operate weakly, focus on supply changes and warehouse receipt outflow [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No content provided in the given text. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were presented, including PTA capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory. For example, in November 2025, PTA capacity was 9472, production was 638, and the ending inventory was 296 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were provided, covering EG production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory. For instance, in November 2025, EG production was 58, total supply was 244, and port inventory change was 12 [12]. - **Price and Margin Data**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the margins of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products also changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 31.70 yuan/ton [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ななな [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: 女女女 [1] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose, and short - term demand release cannot provide continuous driving force. The cost and macro - aspects lack clear guidance [2]. - Different chemical products face various supply - demand situations and price trends, with most products under downward pressure or in a state of uncertainty [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene demand has improved temporarily, but overall supply is abundant, and short - term demand cannot drive continuously. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increases, and demand shows weakness. For polypropylene, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price is weak, with a small decline in East China spot and stable Shandong quotes. There are short - term consolidation and medium - term negatives. Benzene - styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply - demand, and the price is under pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices decreased. PX supply rises, PTA load drops, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol supply has growth pressure, and demand is expected to weaken. Short - fiber demand may decline, and bottle - chip demand fades [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol price continues to fall, with high expected arrivals in November and weak downstream demand. Urea price drops, with a weak supply - demand situation and a high probability of price decline in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC price drops, with weak cost support, high supply, and low demand. Caustic soda fluctuates, with good liquid chlorine prices, but high inventory pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price weakens slightly, with cost increases and high - pressure supply in the long term. Glass price drops, with cost increases, reduced profit, and low - inventory replenishment sentiment [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.89% to 15,250 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released easing signals. The better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in September have supported the correction of industrial factors, boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the rubber market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.23% to 11,150 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal, and the better - than - expected new car production and sales data in September have corrected industrial factors and enhanced the confidence of long - position holders in the rubber market [7]. 4. Other Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The oscillating and strong/weak view only applies to the intraday view, not the short - term and medium - term views [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher due to some device news. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the basis of the spot slightly strengthened. The supply of PTA is expected to return, and the market supply - demand outlook is weak. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG**: The price of ethylene glycol was consolidating at a low level. The short - term supply and demand of ethylene glycol remained tight, and the basis still had some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand in the distant months will turn loose, and the disk will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 There is no specific content about the previous day's review in the report. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The fundamentals were affected by device news. The spot basis was - 92, the factory inventory was 3.84 days (a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with a decrease in short positions. The supply is expected to return, and the price will follow the cost side [5][6]. - **MEG**: The price was consolidating at a low level. The spot basis was 76, the inventory in East China was 37.24 tons (a decrease of 0.73 tons compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions. The short - term supply and demand was tight, but the long - term supply - demand will turn loose [7][8]. 3.3.今日关注 There is no specific content about what to focus on today in the report. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the PTA production capacity was 9172, the production was 626, the total supply was 626, the total demand was 624, and the ending inventory was 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the EG production was 58, the total supply was 234, the total demand was 233, and the port inventory change was 2 [13]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester filaments, as well as the processing fees and profits of different production methods. For example, the PTA processing fee was 51.58 yuan/ton, and the naphtha MEG internal - market profit was - 1110.70 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **L利多**: The average operating load of polyester devices increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start was slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device was shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **利空**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere was still cautious. The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the disk rebound [10].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices by over 18% on the announcement day [1] - Copper ore and cathode copper have been exempted from tariffs, which was unexpected by the market, weakening previous expectations of increased domestic copper production and decreased demand for non-American copper [1] - The exemption is expected to be bullish for copper prices from a global supply-demand perspective, but a decrease in U.S. copper imports is anticipated in the second half of the year, potentially increasing non-American copper supply and negatively impacting LME and SHFE copper prices [1] Group 2 - Current global market risk appetite is high, with positive performance in both domestic and international equity markets, which is bullish for copper prices [2] - Recent weak U.S. non-farm data and lower-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI have raised expectations of a weakening U.S. economy, leading to increased predictions of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Domestic macroeconomic conditions have improved, with a general upward trend in pricing for domestic commodities, although the market has shown signs of cooling towards the end of July [2] Group 3 - The current copper market is characterized by a strong domestic performance and weak external conditions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory depletion slowing and overseas copper inventory accumulating at high levels [2] - The exclusion of refined copper and copper ore from U.S. tariffs has led to a convergence of LME and COMEX copper price differentials to normal levels, reducing the tariff's impact on copper prices [3] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a 90-day extension of tariff policies, contributing to improved trade relations and potentially supporting copper price trends [3]

Report Overview 1. Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] 2. Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei - Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 - Date: August 3, 2025 [2] 3. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoint - Policy expectations have eased, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3] Market Analysis 1. Logic - The expectation of anti-involution policies has eased, and the black market has returned to fundamental trading, resulting in a slight decline in steel prices [5] 2. Macro Environment Domestic Macro - The political statement on anti-involution has been revised, leading to eased policy expectations. The 30th July Politburo meeting removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the 1st July Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting, and changed "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promoting the governance of key industry production capacity" [5][8] Overseas Macro - The US core PCE index in June had a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a phased tendency to maintain high interest rates. The conflicting demands between different political stances may lead to repeated views, which could harm the US dollar's credit [5][9] 3. Black Industry Chain - Demand has exceeded expectations, the decline of hot metal production is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. During the off-season, steel demand has exceeded expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits have expanded, and the decline of hot metal production is slow [5][11] Rebar Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - The spread is approaching the risk-free window. Reverse arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3360 (-70) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3203 (-153) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 157 (-83) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -54 (-11) yuan/ton [14][18] 2. Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. Demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [19][22][23] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that steel inventories are at a low level and have not increased, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [25] 4. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 335 (-92) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 285 (-46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley electricity profit was 182 (-112) yuan/ton [31][35] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - Reverse arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3410 (-90) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3401 (-106) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 9 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -2 (+9) yuan/ton [37] 2. Demand - Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and white goods production has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [38][41][42] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that off-season demand has slightly exceeded expectations, and the accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventory has slowed down [44] 4. Production - MS weekly data shows that hot-rolled coil production has declined [46] 5. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 217 (-109) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 333 (+1) yuan/ton [48][51] Other Market Information 1. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread [52] 2. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil [60][61][62] 3. Cold-Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate [64][65]