[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|房地产Ⅱ 证券研究报告 | 地 | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 | 产 & | 海 | 外 | 】 | 贝 | 壳 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -W(02423.HK)/贝壳(BEKE) | | | | | | | | | 系列二 | —洞见贝壳 | | | | | | | 如何看待 26 年市场环境下贝壳的业绩弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测（货币单位如无特别说明均为人民币）： | [Table_Finance] | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 77,777 | 93,457 | 94,308 | 95,240 | 104,660 | | 增长率 （ ） | % | 28% | 20% | 1% | 1% | 10% | | EBITDA（百万元） | | 8,023 | 6,622 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi's report indicates that the profitability preview for Macau gaming stocks in Q4 last year shows that operational leverage in the industry should have significantly improved, excluding additional operational expenses related to the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games, as well as costs associated with the closure of satellite casinos by SJM Holdings (00880) [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The industry’s EBITDA is expected to increase by 13% year-on-year to $2.246 billion, supported by a 15% year-on-year rise in gross gaming revenue [1] - The EBITDA margin for the industry is projected to rise by half a percentage point year-on-year to 27.5% [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and MGM China (02282) are likely to see the largest quarter-on-quarter improvement in market share among operators [1] - Sands China (01928) is also expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase in market share, while SJM is anticipated to experience the largest market share loss due to the closure of satellite casinos [1] - Wynn Macau's market share is expected to remain stable quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 3: EBITDA Projections - Among the six gaming operators, Galaxy Entertainment is expected to show the most significant EBITDA improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 31% to HKD 4.239 billion, benefiting from concert events and favorable VIP win rates [1] - Sands China’s EBITDA is projected to grow by 8% year-on-year to $616 million, which is about 5% lower than market expectations, primarily due to additional operational expenses from the NBA China Games in October and the National Games in November last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The advertising slogan "7 out of 10 Chinese households use Bull" by Bull Group has sparked controversy, leading to a lawsuit from a competitor, Jia's Company, which claims the slogan is misleading [1][4]. Group 1: Advertising Controversy - Jia's Company questions the slogan's validity, suggesting it misleads consumers by implying current usage rather than past usage [5]. - Bull Group counters with a lawsuit, claiming commercial defamation and seeking 4.2 million yuan in damages [1]. Group 2: Logical Issues in Advertising - The first issue is the contradiction in tense; "use" implies current usage, while the fine print suggests it includes past users, creating confusion [5]. - The second issue involves the aggregation of historical data, which does not accurately reflect current market share or competitiveness [6]. - The third issue is the ambiguity in product categories; the slogan implies high usage across all product lines, despite varying performance in different segments [6]. - The fourth issue concerns the reliability of third-party data, which may not be comprehensive or accurately represent the market due to sampling errors [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The slogan's straightforward nature builds consumer trust but reflects the company's anxiety over market share, indicating a deep-seated belief that market share equates to competitive strength [7]. - In a market dominated by existing users, Bull Group should focus on retaining current customers through product quality rather than relying on potentially misleading advertising [7].

第一个问题是时态定义的矛盾。"用"和"用过"是完全两个完全不同的概念，"7户用公牛"会让消费者认 为这是当下时态。但公牛在部分宣传场景的小字备注中，却将其扩展为"正在使用或曾经使用过"，"大 字"和"小字"的表述并不一致。"大字"虽大，但无法凭空制造出"现实扭曲力场"，普通消费者只要认真 看小字，就能觉察到异常之处。 第二个问题是存量数据的叠加。将"曾经使用过"的存量用户纳入统计，违背了市场占有率的传统定义。 市占率通常以当期销售额、销售量为核心指标，反映当下或近期状态，而存量数据只增不减。对经营超 过30年的公牛集团而言，累积的用户本就庞大，但这类数据无法反映当前的竞争力。可供对比的 是，"14亿人中13亿在喝**水""10户城市家庭8户在用**空调"也是没有参考价值的，因为有些存量早已 不在，而有些存量存在用户的大面积重叠。 每经评论员杜恒峰 "10户家庭7户用"的表述简单直观，能快速建立消费者信任，但也体现了企业的"市占率焦虑"。哪怕是 将存量产品纳入，也要营造市占率极高的印象，说明"市占率就是核心竞争力"的执念仍根深蒂固。法律 法规在完善，市场认知在升级，曾经看似"高明"的广告语，如今也要面临同行、消 ...

Summary of Fuyao Glass Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Fuyao Glass - **Industry**: Automotive Glass Manufacturing Key Points Market Outlook - Fuyao Glass anticipates a recovery in the North American market by 2026, benefiting from continued market share growth in Europe and the U.S. to offset potential domestic declines, with overall stable operational expectations and revenue growth [2][3] - The global automotive glass industry is expected to see a growth rate of 2-3% in 2026, with domestic production maintaining levels from 2025 despite concerns about domestic demand [3][4] Production Capacity and Utilization - In Q4 2025, Fuyao's capacity utilization is expected to rise by approximately 2 percentage points to around 88%, marking the highest level in five years due to strong order volumes [2][5] - The new domestic factory is projected to increase market share by 3-4 percentage points, reaching a reasonable level of over 70% [4][12] Pricing and ASP Trends - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-7% in 2026, driven by the significant application of dimmable glass products in China and the introduction of high-value products in Europe [2][7] - Price increases in the U.S. market due to tariffs are likely, with expected increases of 6-7%, although the company will bear minimal tariff impacts [8][12] Cost Factors - Rising electricity prices in the U.S. have impacted costs, accounting for about 4% of production costs, with a profit reduction of approximately $1 million in Q3 due to these increases [6][10] - Other raw material costs are stable or improving, with no significant fluctuations observed in natural gas prices, which constitute about 10% of production costs [6] Revenue and Profitability - Fuyao's revenue guidance for 2026 is contingent on industry performance, with expectations of stable growth driven by ASP increases and slight production growth [4][28] - The company aims to maintain stable profitability despite potential cost pressures from rising electricity prices and seasonal factors affecting production [28][29] Capital Expenditure and Future Investments - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to exceed initial estimates, with significant investments in new production capacity and facilities [36][37] - Future capital expenditure trends will depend on market share growth and capacity expansion needs, with a potential increase in the frequency and scale of investments [38][39] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Fuyao's market share in the U.S. aftermarket is close to 60%, with limited growth potential in Europe and the U.S. due to high existing market shares [23] - The domestic aftermarket is projected to grow, with Fuyao aiming to increase its market share by 5 percentage points annually [24][25] Product Differentiation - Dimmable glass products command significantly higher prices compared to standard glass, with basic dimmable glass priced over 3,000 RMB per piece, indicating a strong market trend towards higher-value products [40] Conclusion - Fuyao Glass is positioned for stable growth in the automotive glass market, with strategic investments and a focus on high-value products to enhance profitability and market share in both domestic and international markets [2][28][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Galaxy Entertainment, but it provides detailed financial performance metrics that suggest a positive outlook for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment reported a net revenue of HKD 12.16 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% [2][8]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period reached HKD 3.34 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.5%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][11]. - The company's total betting amount increased significantly, reaching HKD 127.84 billion, a 24.5% year-on-year increase, driven by a substantial rise in VIP betting [3][9]. - The gaming revenue specifically saw an 18.4% year-on-year growth, with contributions from both gaming and non-gaming sectors [2][8]. - The market share of Galaxy Entertainment stood at 20.2% in Q3 2025, stable compared to the previous quarter and up from 18.8% in Q3 2024 [5][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the net revenue was HKD 12.16 billion, with gaming revenue contributing HKD 9.71 billion and non-gaming revenue contributing HKD 1.73 billion [2][8]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 27.5%, with a total adjusted EBITDA of HKD 3.34 billion [4][11]. - The total revenue for the company reached HKD 35.41 billion year-to-date, reflecting a 10.2% year-on-year increase [1][7]. Betting and Revenue Breakdown - The total betting amount for the company was HKD 127.84 billion, with VIP, mass market, and slot machine betting amounts at HKD 65.0 billion, HKD 35.41 billion, and HKD 27.42 billion respectively [3][9]. - The win rates for VIP, mass market, and slot machines were 3.1%, 26.7%, and 2.7% respectively, indicating a relatively high overall win rate [3][9]. Strategic Developments - The company has engaged in several strategic partnerships and events to enhance its competitive position, including collaborations with UFC and Tencent Music [5][12]. - Major entertainment events hosted by the company contributed positively to its performance, including concerts by popular artists [2][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the semiconductor industry has entered a downward cycle since the second half of 2022, leading to increased competition within the industry [1] - The overall situation of the industry has gradually improved since the beginning of this year [1] - The company aims to focus on maintaining market share and reducing inventory by 2025, while also enhancing research and development efficiency [1] Group 2 - The company's funding is primarily reserved for future development needs [1]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Wealth Management - The report discusses the changes and challenges in the wealth management sector, highlighting that the scale of wealth management has seen a slowdown in growth due to high base effects and diminishing yield advantages [3][4]. - In the asset allocation, there has been a notable decrease in bond investments, while deposits and public funds have seen significant increases [5]. - The report indicates that there was a total reduction of 0.27 trillion yuan in bond holdings, primarily in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while there was an increase in interest rate bonds [6]. Group 2: Home Appliances and Consumer Goods - The report identifies the potential for the new electronic cigarette (HNB) market to reach a scale of 10 billion USD if the US and China markets open up, driven by high concentration and regulatory barriers [7]. - The sweeping machine market is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Roborock achieving substantial sales increases during promotional events, although price competition is expected to persist [8]. - The report notes that the domestic appliance sector is benefiting from a government-backed replacement program, with an investment of 300 billion yuan in 2025 expected to drive appliance consumption significantly [10]. Group 3: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The report on Haida Group indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 58.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, with a net profit of 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% [13]. - The feed sales volume reached 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, with significant growth in pig feed driven by industry recovery and strategic adjustments [14]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with a reported growth of over 40% in feed exports in the first half of 2025, leveraging its competitive advantages from the domestic market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the market share trends of various automotive brands, particularly focusing on Li Auto and its competitors, highlighting fluctuations in market share from January 2023 to June 2025 [1][2]. Market Share Trends - Li Auto's market share increased from 6.97% in January 2023 to a peak of 13.14% in October 2023, before declining to 11.33% and 11.59% in November and December respectively [1]. - In 2024, Li Auto's market share fluctuated between 8.34% and 9.77% until June, when it rose to between 11.17% and 14.36% following the delivery of the L6 model [1]. - By June 2025, Li Auto's market share dropped to 9.35%, indicating a significant decline compared to the previous year [2]. Competitor Analysis - The article notes that while some readers perceive Seres/Wenjie as having a faster iteration speed compared to Li Auto, Seres' market share has not surpassed its peak since February 2024 [3]. - The market share of Seres reached a high of 10.66% in June 2024, but overall sales have not significantly increased despite a higher market share in the 400,000+ price segment [3]. - A comparison of market share changes from July 2024 to June 2025 shows declines for several brands, including Li Auto, NIO, and BMW, while Seres saw a slight increase of 0.38% [4]. Combined Market Share Insights - The combined market share of Li Auto and Seres reached a high of 25.49% in July 2024, suggesting that increases in one brand's share do not necessarily correlate with decreases in the other's [5]. - The expectation is that with the ongoing deliveries of new models, the combined market share of Li Auto and Seres could surpass the previous high of 25.49% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Li Auto's market share declined in June, but anticipates a recovery in sales driven by the launch of the i8 in August [1] Market Share Analysis - Li Auto's market share decreased by 1.4 percentage points month-on-month in June, reaching 3.2% [1] - The market share for the second quarter fell by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, settling at 3.9% [1] Factors Influencing Market Share - The decline in market share is attributed to organizational restructuring and price competition following the upgrade of the L series [1] - The report suggests that the launch of the i8 is expected to significantly boost sales in August [1]