点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 市场展望：望向新高 短期预期差驱动下，下半年市场或冲击新高。整体来看，去年9月以来的市场行情已从政策驱动逐步转向 基本面与流动性驱动，未来市场行情演绎的节奏或可参照 2019 年。展望下半年，市场仍存在一些预期 差，如短期基本面改善的持续性、资金持续流入及新兴产业发展带来的机遇等。因此我们认为，下半年市 场将开启下一阶段上涨行情，并有望突破 2024 年下半年的阶段性高点。 结构展望：内需、科技与红利个股 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 来自内部的确定性 美国"对等关税"90天的截止期限将至，结合目前的进展以及2018年的情况来看，大多数经济体恐怕难以在 90天的暂缓期内解决同美国的关税问题。从当前资产价格表现看，全球多数权益资产已回升至年初以来的 相对高位 ...

巴西财政部副部长Galipolo：财政政策影响当前的通胀水平和市场预期，央行需要了解各类经济主体受 到的影响方式。 ...

纽约联储：6月份房租、汽油、医疗和大学价格预期加速上涨。家庭对个人财务状况和信贷获取更加乐 观。6月份劳动力市场预期改善。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 12270 亿元，较上日缩量 2274 亿元。近 期股市成交量能有所下降，反应出市场追涨情绪有所减弱，股指上行动能放缓。从宏观政策稳定经济 增长的角度来看，目前国内通胀较弱，内需的内生性增长动能还有所不足，外需易受到关税因素的冲 击，下半年需要继续出台稳定经济需求以及市场预期的利好政策，这是本轮股指反弹的主要逻辑。后 市等待 7 月政治局会议的政策兑现。总的来说，短期内股指区间震荡为主。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计 ...

欧洲央行管委雷恩：不能让低于预期的通胀改变市场预期。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月核心 PCE 同比涨 2.7%，中国工企利 润回落 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-30 宏观策略（黄金） 美国 5 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比升 2.7% 周五金价显著回调，资金继续流出黄金，美国 5 月核心 PCE 超 预期，通胀上行压力的存在导致短期货币政策不愿意降息，黄 金缺乏上涨动能。地缘政治风险也没有继续发酵。 宏观策略（国债期货） 5 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 9.1% 综 期货的拉升更多是对股市走弱的反应，现券市场波动不大。后 市依然看多，但市场走强的节奏或显波折。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 沪深交易所拟将主板风险警示股涨跌幅限制调整至 10% 报 股市气势如虹，但行情与基本面的分歧在加大，后续若通过政 策发力夯实基础推动经济稳步修复，则行情将更扎实，但若物 价持续低迷，则行情的延续性大大降低。 农产品（白糖） 巴西中南部 6 月上半月甘蔗压榨量料减少 19.3% 巴西中南部 6 月上半月压榨生产数据即将公布，市场平均预期巴 西中南部 6 月上半月糖产量同比料同比减少 19.9%，报告可能为 市场带来偏多影响。 黑色金属（ ...

Core Insights - U.S. soybean and corn futures prices have rebounded from multi-month lows, raising questions about whether the oversupply will end the upward momentum [1] - Upcoming reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are anticipated to influence market expectations significantly [1] Group 1 - The rebound in soybean and corn futures indicates a potential shift in market dynamics after a period of low prices [1] - The market is closely monitoring supply levels to determine if the current upward trend can be sustained [1] - The impact of the forthcoming USDA reports is expected to be critical in shaping future price movements and market sentiment [1]

央行：增强外汇市场韧性 稳定市场预期 金十数据6月27日讯，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会于6月23日召开，会议指出，增 强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ...