（来源：上银基金管理有限公司） 2025年11月19日，人工智能行业再迎利好冲击：英伟达三季报营收570亿美元，同比增长62%，其股价 盘后直线飙升，一度涨超6%。（注：数据来源Wind，2025/11/20） 亮眼财务数据让人工智能大势更加确定。然而，资本市场的历史一再告诉我们：即便是最真实的革命， 也往往伴随着阴影。 来源：市场投研资讯 当前，美股科技"七巨头"在标普500指数中的权重占比为47%，AI主题相关标的集中度已升至历史极 值。（注：数据来源iFinD，截至2025Q3） 2022-2025年美股七巨头在标普500指数中权重 注：数据来源iFinD，统计区间2022Q1-2025Q3，历史过往仅供参考，不预示未来表现。 价格高位之下，脆弱性随之上升。那么在海外科技股交易如此拥挤的当下，是否存在一个更底层、更能 抵御技术路径不确定性的投资机会？能与人工智能并列的主线究竟是什么？ 诚然，所有颠覆性技术的早期发展都带有风险投资的色彩，其最终形态和赢家充满不确定性。在1990年 代的互联网泡沫中，我们不知道最终胜出的会是亚马逊、谷歌，还是那些早已湮没无名的公司。这种不 确定性，让科技公司的技术路线充满了 ...

当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

总量团队联合展望 - 2026 年度策略报告汇报会议 20251119 摘要 2026 年中国经济预计将经历供给端升级和需求端提振，GDP 目标或设 定在 5%左右，财政政策稳健，货币政策支持国家战略，关注中美关系 和国内价格问题。 全球资本市场主线围绕中美科技与安全竞赛展开，科技资本开支增加， 看好铜铝等有色金属资产，以及中美科技股，美国中期选举对经济稳定 有诉求。 外需复苏可能缓解房地产市场跌势，预计 2026 年 PPI 同比增速转正， 风险资产优于避险资产，市场对房地产的悲观预期或将逆转。 2026 年固收投资策略倾向于保守票息策略，信用利差处于极低位置， 不建议信用加仓，关注元旦、春节前后信贷续接及非标债务续接等个体 性机会。 长周期对债券投资具指导意义，关注康波周期、库兹涅茨周期和朱格拉 周期变化，预计中长期利率中枢上移，政策精准针对经济堵点和痛点。 Q&A 未来一年中国宏观经济将会有哪些变化？哪些政策值得期待？ 未来一年，中国宏观经济将经历显著变化，主要体现在以下几个方面： 预计 2026 年货币政策接近尾声，十年国债利率下行空间有限，企业贷 款对制造业支持充分，土地部门风险出清依赖政府，反内卷 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark, indicating a new phase of valuation restructuring in the A-share market, driven primarily by the information technology sector, which contributed over 50% to the index's gains [1][13] - The current market dynamics have shifted from reliance on traditional sectors like finance and real estate to new drivers of growth, particularly in technology and innovation [1][13] - The Chinese economy is potentially entering a new economic cycle, with significant policy reforms and enhanced internal resilience being key indicators of this transition [2][3] Group 2 - The government's proactive macroeconomic policies, including a focus on stabilizing growth and promoting structural adjustments, signal a more optimistic policy environment compared to the previous five-year plan [3][4] - Domestic demand recovery is evident, with retail sales and infrastructure investments showing steady growth, contributing to the overall economic resilience [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a slowdown in global economic growth, yet China's economy is expected to perform better, with a forecasted growth rate of over 5.0% in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 3 - The emphasis on emerging industries and future sectors, such as renewable energy and quantum technology, highlights the strategic direction of China's economic development [5][9] - The importance of technological innovation is underscored by the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies, which are attracting foreign investment [4][5] - Despite progress, challenges remain in China's technological innovation landscape, including weaknesses in basic research and the need for improved commercialization of scientific achievements [7][8] Group 4 - The transition from old economic cycles characterized by intense competition to new cycles driven by innovation is a critical theme, with the need to avoid redundant investments in emerging industries being emphasized [10][11] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial period for testing endurance and confidence in China's economic strategy, with a focus on building a modern industrial system [5][9] - The potential for 2025 to mark the beginning of a new economic cycle is under observation, with shifts in investment focus from quantity to quality and from imitation to innovation being key indicators [12][13]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior among the younger generation, particularly those born after 1995, who prioritize practicality and cost-effectiveness over brand prestige and luxury items [1][3][19] Group 1: Changing Consumer Preferences - The younger generation is increasingly adopting a mindset of "reverse consumption," focusing on essential spending and avoiding unnecessary expenses, which is reflected in their "six abstentions" lifestyle [3][7] - There is a notable decline in the sales of luxury brands, with Gucci's sales dropping by 51% and LV's overall revenue decreasing by 2% [5] - Domestic brands like Hongxing Erke and Anta are gaining popularity due to their affordability and practicality, surpassing international brands in sales and viewership [5][17] Group 2: Economic Context - The economic conditions faced by the current generation differ significantly from those experienced by previous generations, with many young people earning around 5,000 yuan monthly, leading to a focus on reducing non-essential spending [9][12] - The article references the Kondratiev wave theory, indicating that the current economic climate is in a downturn phase, impacting young people's financial stability and spending habits [10][12] Group 3: Societal Implications - The trend of reduced spending is contributing to lower marriage and birth rates, with marriage registrations dropping by 20.5% year-on-year, indicating a shift in societal norms and priorities [15] - The emphasis on sustainability and practicality is leading to a rise in interest in shared, rental, and second-hand markets, as well as eco-friendly products [17][19] - While the immediate economic impact of this shift may appear negative, it is seen as a step towards a more sustainable and responsible consumption model, promoting environmental awareness [19]

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The macro strategy management firms are focusing on global asset classes, particularly gold, in response to the current macroeconomic environment [1][2] - The classic risk parity model is employed by firms like 思达星汇, which allocates higher weights to low-volatility assets and utilizes a 70% allocation to a risk parity strategy for beta returns [1][8] - 远澜私募 uses a risk budget model to dynamically adjust asset allocations based on predefined thresholds, allowing for more flexibility compared to traditional risk parity approaches [8] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold is currently in a bullish trend due to expectations of a weaker US dollar and ongoing monetary easing, making it a preferred safe-haven asset [2][9] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by its role as a substitute for US Treasuries, with central banks increasing their gold reserves [9] - The geopolitical instability and supportive monetary conditions are expected to sustain gold's upward trajectory over the next few years [2] Group 3: Stock Market Outlook - The global stock market is expected to perform well in a liquidity-friendly environment, with AI-driven industrial revolution still in its early stages [3][4] - The current fiscal expansion is likely to stimulate economic growth, supporting asset prices until a potential bubble phase is reached [3] - The focus for Q4 is on US and Hong Kong stocks, as fiscal and monetary stimuli are anticipated to be more pronounced [3] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - China's government bonds are expected to experience long-term fluctuations, with a low long-term yield relative to financing needs [5][11] - Short-term bonds are likely to benefit from the Fed's rate cuts, while long-term bonds may face upward price constraints due to inflation expectations [11][12] - The overall bond market strategy suggests holding short-term bonds while using long-term bonds for hedging [12] Group 5: Commodity Insights - Copper is identified as a commodity with strong support due to limited supply and increasing demand driven by technological advancements [10] - The overall macroeconomic cycle is viewed as transitioning from a period of recession to recovery, which will benefit commodities and equities [6] Group 6: Market Adjustments and Risk Management - Recent adjustments in gold allocations were made to mitigate volatility, with a reduction in gold exposure following significant price movements [7][14] - The use of risk alert models has facilitated quicker adjustments in asset positions, enhancing overall portfolio resilience [14]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of the Tongtai Digital Economy A fund, managed by Chen Zongchao, which achieved a quarterly return of 70.46% in Q3 2025, significantly outperforming its peers and benchmarks [1][3]. Performance Summary - The fund has delivered a one-year return of 67.61% and a two-year cumulative return of 99.18%, both of which exceed the performance benchmarks and the CSI 300 index [3]. - Since its inception on July 26, 2021, the fund has achieved a total return of 6.48% over 4.2 years, with an annualized return of 1.49% [1]. Holdings Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund are primarily concentrated in the AI computing power industry, with a total market value of 149 million yuan [4][6]. - Significant adjustments in holdings were made in Q3, including a reduction in positions for Zhongji Xuchuang by 23.27%, Xinyi Sheng by 28.96%, and Hudian Co. by 35.99%, while increasing the position in Cambricon by 18.47% [7]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager's strategy involves increasing exposure to domestic computing power while reducing exposure to overseas supply chains, focusing on leading companies in niche segments of the technology industry [7]. - Chen Zongchao expressed strong confidence in the Chinese AI industry, suggesting that the main battleground for AI will shift from the West to China, supported by favorable government policies [8]. Future Outlook - Four key areas of focus for future investments include the ongoing arms race in AI models and computing power, the anticipated benefits from the domestic computing power supply chain, breakthroughs in high-end chip manufacturing, and potential advancements in AI terminals [9]. - The fund's active management style is reflected in a high turnover rate of 1019.35% in the first half of 2025, indicating a proactive approach to portfolio management [10][11]. Fund Management - Chen Zongchao has been managing the Tongtai Digital Economy A fund since July 27, 2021, and currently oversees a total management scale of 245 million yuan across multiple funds [13]. Market Attention - As the fourth quarter unfolds, the market is keenly observing whether the Tongtai Digital Economy A fund can maintain its strong performance and continue to generate excess returns amid the domestic computing power wave [14].

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have surged significantly, with London spot gold reaching a high of $4,380 per ounce and New York futures gold hitting $4,392 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1][13]. Historical Context of Gold Bull Markets - The first gold bull market began in 1968, with prices rising from $35 per ounce to a peak of $850 per ounce in 1980, marking a cumulative increase of 2,328.57%. However, after reaching this peak, prices quickly fell to $653 per ounce, reflecting a significant monthly decline [1][6]. - Following the peak in 1980, gold prices entered a long-term downtrend until they reached a low of $251.95 per ounce in 1999, a drop of 70.36% from the 1980 high [2][7]. - The end of the first bull market was attributed to liquidity tightening and a fundamental improvement in the U.S. economy, particularly after the appointment of Paul Volcker as Fed Chairman, who implemented aggressive monetary policies to combat inflation [6][7]. Second Gold Bull Market Analysis - The second bull market started in 2001, with gold prices rising from $272.50 per ounce to a peak of $1,921.15 per ounce in 2011, achieving a cumulative increase of 605.01%. Similar to the first bull market, prices fell sharply after reaching the peak [8][11]. - By December 2015, gold prices had dropped to $1,045.54 per ounce, a decline of 45.58% from the 2011 peak [8][11]. - The second bull market was driven by economic turmoil following the 2001 dot-com bubble and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, with gold serving as a hedge against dollar credit risk [11][12]. Current Gold Bull Market Outlook - The current bull market began in 2022, with gold prices rising from $1,614 per ounce to a recent high of $4,380.79 per ounce, reflecting a cumulative increase of 171.42% [13][17]. - The driving factors for this bull market include persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and the politicization of the dollar as a reserve asset, leading countries to increase gold reserves for safety [17][18]. - The potential for further price increases remains, with expectations that the current bull market could see price increases comparable to or exceeding those of previous bull markets [18][19].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the depreciation of the US dollar, leading to an expansion of global liquidity and a shift of funds from the US to other markets. The dollar index has decreased from 115 to below 100, indicating a reversal in capital flows and a narrative of "the East rising and the West declining" [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Drivers for 2025**: The primary driver for the market in 2025 is the weak dollar, which has led to an increase in non-US equity assets. The expansion of global liquidity, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and dollar depreciation since September 2024, has facilitated this shift [2][3] - **Hong Kong Stock Market Performance**: Over the past year, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced three significant pulse movements closely tied to the Fed's monetary policy and global liquidity changes. The first pulse occurred in September 2024, driven by favorable policy expectations, while the second and third pulses occurred in early 2025 and September 2025, respectively, following dollar fluctuations and Fed rate cuts [3][4] - **Impact of Fed's Monetary Policy**: The Fed's recent monetary policy has significantly impacted the market. In September 2025, the Fed revised down its non-farm employment data, providing a rationale for a 75 basis point rate cut. However, the guidance for future cuts was adjusted to 25 basis points per year, compressing expectations for future liquidity expansion [5][6] - **Investor Behavior and Market Stability**: Changes in investor behavior, particularly among state-owned and professional investors, have been observed. A significant decrease in the central bank's debt holdings indicates profit-taking and a potential shift in market dynamics, leading to an uneven market state that could increase future volatility [6][8] - **Investor Sentiment and Market Trends**: In 2025, investor sentiment has led to significant market movements. Many investors, having realized substantial gains, are opting to take profits or adjust their portfolios. This behavior has contributed to a rapid market decline, particularly in the dual innovation sector, as investors react to perceived risks and expectations of state intervention [8][10] - **Future Market Signals**: The current Kondratiev cycle's downturn is expected to persist until at least November 2026, with the overall bull market trend continuing. Observations of the relationship between the dollar index and the Hang Seng Technology Index are crucial for future bullish signals. A potential rise in the Hang Seng Technology Index is anticipated by December 2025 or January 2026 [9][10] Other Important Insights - **Social Financing Trends**: The current social financing growth has decreased by 230 billion, with a growth rate of 8.7%, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous periods. The high net financing of government bonds continues to impact overall income growth [12][13] - **Gold's Role in Market Adjustments**: Gold has acted as a safe haven during equity asset adjustments, with its price reflecting market risk sentiment. The recent stabilization in gold prices indicates an improvement in market risk sentiment, despite ongoing downward pressures [11] - **US-China Trade Relations**: Recent developments in US-China trade relations indicate a temporary easing of tensions, with both sides engaging in talks to manage short-term risks. However, significant barriers remain, and achieving breakthrough results is challenging due to a lack of mutual trust [20][22] - **Market Signals for Reassessment**: To reassess bullish positions, it is essential to monitor the Fed's signals for further easing and the dollar index's movements. A significant drop in the dollar index could lead to increased liquidity flowing into non-US markets, positively impacting Hong Kong, H-shares, and A-shares [10][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment of Shanghai Ruicheng Private Equity by Ding Luming, a prominent analyst with 16 years of experience in sell-side research, emphasizing a unique investment philosophy based on the "Kondratiev Wave" theory and a commitment to achieving sustainable excess returns for investors [2][4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Ruicheng Private Equity aims to create a "Chinese version of Bridgewater," focusing on a differentiated path that prioritizes unique asset allocation strategies based on the Kondratiev cycle rather than blindly pursuing scale [5][10]. - The firm has successfully registered its products and is positioned to leverage Ding Luming's extensive experience in sell-side research to directly benefit investors [6][19]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy is rooted in the belief that the period before 2025 will be characterized by a long-term bearish outlook, while the period after 2025 is expected to shift towards a bullish perspective [6][25]. - Ding Luming's strategy combines traditional asset allocation with modern quantitative investment techniques, aiming to create products that investors can hold for the long term [8][9]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Ding Luming's personal trading account reportedly achieved an excess return of ***% from January to July this year, with the excess return exceeding ***% in August [5][19]. - The strategy employed by Ruicheng has demonstrated significant performance, with a simulated annualized excess return of ***% over the CSI 300 index from 2017 to 2024 [5][19]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The firm anticipates a significant transformation in the A-share market over the next 30 years, driven by China's rise as a global leader in technology and economic sectors [25]. - The expected ranking of asset classes for the next 6-12 months is equities > bonds > commodities, with technology sectors identified as having the highest potential returns [24][25].