随着42.8万亿日元刺激方案公布在即，日本市场正经历严峻考验。野村证券警告，日本市场正面临类似2022年英国"特拉斯冲击"的财政风险，而 市场尚未充分定价超长期国债的供需恶化。 据华尔街见闻文章，日本政府已进入编制大规模经济刺激方案的最后阶段，方案中政府支出规模约为21.3万亿日元，若计入私营部门投资，总规 模将高达42.8万亿日元。这一规模远超前任推出的13.9万亿日元方案，引发市场对财政纪律的深切担忧。日本国债市场出现猛烈抛售，30年期国债 收益率创下历史新高，10年期和5年期国债收益率双双刷新2008年以来最高水平。 （日本10年期债券收益率本周以来加速上涨） 11月20日，据追风交易台消息，野村证券在最新研报中称，只要对日本版"特拉斯冲击"的担忧持续存在，外国投资者将继续回避日本市场。日元 全面走弱配合超长期债券疲软，是投资者抛售日本债券的明确信号。美元兑日元汇率时隔10个月重回157关口，逼近随时可能触发官方干预的危险 区域。 该行还指出，若超长期债券供需进一步恶化，收益率曲线陡峭化仍有较大空间。财政忧虑推动的收益率曲线陡峭化尚未完全反映4-5月期间超长债 供需恶化的程度。目前30年期国债的供需溢价 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per common share increased by 4.5% to $8.41 at quarter end, resulting in a positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter [9][23] - The debt-to-equity ratio slightly increased to 6.7% from 6.5%, as the company reduced the percentage of preferred stock in its capital structure [10] - The investment portfolio totaled $5.7 billion, consisting of $4.8 billion in agency mortgages and $0.9 billion in agency CMBS [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency RMBS portfolio increased by 13% quarter over quarter, with a focus on 4.5% versus 5.5% coupons [18] - Higher coupon specified pool payouts improved during the quarter, reflecting increased investor demand for prepayment protection [17] - Agency CMBS risk premiums declined quarter over quarter, indicating increased investor demand [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The yield curve steepened, with two-year Treasury yields falling 11 basis points while 30-year yields were down just four basis points [12] - Interest rates declined across the Treasury yield curve, with a notable decrease in interest rate volatility [7][14] - The average unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August, while inflation measures remained above the Federal Reserve's target [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains constructive on agency mortgages, expecting investor demand to broaden due to lower interest rate volatility and attractive valuations [11] - The focus on improving the capital structure and reducing the cost of capital continues, with a commitment to maximizing shareholder returns [24] - The company is monitoring the agency CMBS sector for opportunities to increase allocation as relative value becomes attractive [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management views near-term risks as balanced, with expectations for further easing of monetary policy to support agency mortgages in the long term [24] - The company anticipates that changes to bank regulatory capital rules will increase investor demand for agency mortgages and agency CMBS [11] - The economic environment is characterized by strong corporate earnings and improved growth, despite persistent inflation [5][6] Other Important Information - The company raised $36 million by issuing common stock through its ATM program, maintaining a disciplined approach to benefit existing shareholders [10] - The company retained a sizable balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments totaling $423 million [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in hedge portfolio and net duration exposure - Management indicated a slight reduction in steepener positions and a preference for moving hedges into the front end of the curve, with model duration running slightly long [26][27] Question: Returns on marginal capital deployment relative to dividend level - Levered gross returns were in the upper teens, with net returns in the mid-teens, consistent with the dividend to book yield [30][31] Question: Appetite for changing capital structure with buybacks and common issuance - Management noted that preferred buybacks had minimal impact on capital structure, and they are currently not buying back shares but will consider it if conditions are favorable [35][36] Question: Relative value between agency CMBS and agency RMBS - Agency RMBS continues to provide a more attractive return on equity compared to agency CMBS, which is more aligned with lower coupon agency RMBS [37]

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has experienced a significant drop of nearly $500 in just seven trading days after reaching a historical high, reflecting market volatility [1] - Central banks globally have been purchasing gold in large quantities, contributing to record high gold prices earlier this year, but recent fluctuations have raised concerns [1] - The former governor of the Philippine central bank highlighted that the country's gold holdings are above the ideal range, suggesting a potential need to sell gold if prices decline [1][2] Market Trends - Gold prices surged past the $4000 mark but quickly retreated, causing market disturbances [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by trade tensions and technical overbought conditions in the gold market, has led to increased interest in gold from both central banks and retail investors [1] - Despite the recent price drop, factors such as slowing economic growth, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening dollar may continue to support gold prices [1] Price Data - As of October 30, 2023, the spot gold price was reported at $3969.59 per ounce, reflecting a 1.04% increase [3]

央行购债，值多少 BP？20251028 摘要 央行重启国债买卖旨在平衡市场需求，而非追求特定收益率目标，主要 通过干预市场预期来防止风险累积，并非基于绝对合理点位进行操作。 多种流动性投放工具中，重启国债买卖是为了在其他工具大量使用后， 避免过度投放流动性，同时支持政府债券发行，体现政策协调一致性。 未来几个月央行单月净买入国债规模预计较小，或在 1,000 亿左右甚至 更低，操作将集中在 11 月和 12 月，购买期限预计以 1-3 年短期为主， 可能适度扩展至 5 年。 市场对央行重启国债买卖存在分歧，一种观点认为降准降息概率降低， 另一种观点认为购买短期国债可能导致收益率突破政策利率，反映了市 场对政策意图和效果的不确定性。 债券市场调控工具包括买卖国债、降准和降息，各自独立，买卖国债主 要用于投放流动性，平衡供需，支持债券发行；降准改善银行流动性指 标；降息降低实体部门融资成本。 当前经济环境下，理论上可以考虑降息以降低实体融资成本，但具体实 施时点需评估实体融资需求。四季度尤其是 12 月是降准的最佳时点， 可显著改善银行流动性指标。 若当前降息，收益率存在约 5 个基点的交易机会。若央行继续买入 ...

【导读】美联储降息 几 成定局，利好全球及中国股市 ； 降息幅度现分歧，人事变动引关注 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 北京时间9月17日凌晨，美联储将公布联邦公开市场委员会（以下简称FOMC）议息会议的最 终结果。记者梳理了全球机构投资者当前最关心的几个问题，以飨读者。 降息25个基点还是50个基点？ 目前看， 尽管美联储将时隔9个月重启降息已无悬念，但对于降息幅度，机构投资者仍有分 歧。 摩根大通全球投资策略师费德里科·奎瓦斯 （ Federico Cuevas ） 发布报告表示，最新的就 业数据使美联储保持在降息的轨道上，鉴于招聘持续降温，降幅很可能是25个基点。 英格兰德 指出，如果FOMC决定只降息25个基点，米兰、沃勒（Waller）和鲍曼 （Bowman）可能会 提出 异议。如果降息50个基点，即使对后续降息不做承诺，鹰派也可 能提出异议。如果FOMC降息50个基点并转向数据依赖，假设鲍威尔处于多数地位，只有少 数坚定的鹰派会持异议。这次的鹰派异议可能来自堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）、圣 路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆（Musalem）或芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Goolsbee）。 英格兰德认为，鲍威 ...

Group 1 - Allianz expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% during the upcoming meeting [1] - The short-term interest rate market has fully priced in the possibility of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, compared to only one expected earlier in the summer [1] - Weakness in the U.S. labor market supports the recent shift in rate cut expectations, while persistent inflation data could disrupt future rate expectations [1] Group 2 - The latest U.S. employment report and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicate stagnation in economic activity, reinforcing market expectations for a shift in the Fed's policy response to economic downturn risks [2] - Despite a core PCE inflation rate of 2.9%, significantly above the target, real GDP growth has halved compared to 2024, leading to further compression of consumer real income [2] - Allianz believes the rate cut in September is more likely to be 25 basis points rather than 50, with future cuts depending on the deterioration of the labor market [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration's increasing institutional pressure on the Federal Reserve may become a significant variable in future policy predictions, potentially leading to lower expectations for the terminal federal funds rate [3] - Allianz maintains a positive outlook on the steepening of the U.S. yield curve, despite having reduced some exposure to U.S. yield curve risks [3] - The company continues to favor the allocation of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) amid rising inflation risks and concerns over the Fed's future independence [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a potential interest rate hike if economic growth and prices align with the central bank's outlook, leading to a significant sell-off in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy - Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan would consider raising interest rates if the economic and price conditions improve as projected [2][3]. - The central bank maintained its policy rate in July but raised its forecast for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fiscal year 2025 [3]. - The Deputy Governor, Masayoshi Amamiya, indicated that continuing to raise interest rates is an appropriate policy choice given the improving economic and price conditions [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Ueda's comments, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.88%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropped by 1.1% [3]. - The Japanese government bond market experienced a severe sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.29% [1][4]. - The U.S. and U.K. also saw their long-term bond yields rise, with the U.S. 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time since July 18, and the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since May 1998 [1][6]. Group 3: Political Context and Investor Sentiment - The political instability surrounding Prime Minister Kishida's government, including resignations from key party officials, has raised concerns about increased government spending and potential fiscal discipline loosening [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market is weighing the possibility of either Kishida proposing generous spending plans or a new leader implementing expansionary fiscal policies, both of which could lead to a more accommodative fiscal environment [5]. - The upcoming auction of Japan's 30-year bonds is viewed as a critical test of investor confidence amid these developments [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a potential interest rate hike if economic growth and prices align with projections, leading to significant market reactions [2][5]. Market Reactions - Following Ueda's comments, the Japanese stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 0.88% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index falling by 1.1% [6]. - The Japanese government bond market faced intense selling, with the 30-year bond yield reaching 3.29%, marking a historical high [8][10]. Economic Context - Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan would consider raising interest rates if the economic and price conditions improve as projected in July's outlook [5][6]. - The meeting between Ueda and Prime Minister Kishida was the first since February, where they discussed economic and market conditions [4][5]. Government and Political Dynamics - The political landscape is unstable, with several key figures in Kishida's government expressing intentions to resign, increasing pressure on the Prime Minister [8][10]. - Analysts suggest that the weakened government could lead to increased fiscal spending, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and investor sentiment [10]. Global Bond Market Trends - The sell-off in Japan's bond market reflects broader global trends, with U.S. and U.K. long-term bond yields also reaching multi-year highs [12]. - The upcoming auction of Japan's 30-year bonds is seen as a critical test of investor confidence amid these turbulent conditions [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - There is a strong belief that gold is responding to the deterioration of U.S. fiscal conditions, economic slowdown, and criticisms of the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration, despite cash flow assets not reflecting these issues [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold's Recent Surge - The primary reason for gold's recent surge is the continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, which is inversely related to gold prices as gold is priced in dollars [3]. - Gold's correlation with the VIX index indicates that as market volatility increases, gold prices tend to rise, suggesting that gold benefits from both a weaker dollar and increased stock market volatility [3]. - The significant rise in gold prices from $2000 to over $3500 in the past year and a half cannot be solely attributed to demand from price-sensitive buyers, as the market dynamics have shifted [6]. Group 2: Buyer Dynamics - There are two types of buyers in the gold market: "belief buyers" (such as ETFs, central banks, and speculators) who buy regardless of price based on macroeconomic or risk-hedging views, and "opportunistic buyers" (like households in emerging markets) who buy at favorable prices [6]. - The World Gold Council's second-quarter demand report indicates that "belief buyers," particularly gold ETF investors, have been strong participants in the market this year [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Influences - Investors are increasingly moving into gold mining stocks, reflecting expectations of sustained high gold prices, as mining companies' stock prices begin to reflect anticipated future increases in gold prices [9]. - The steepening yield curve, with declining short-term rates and persistently high long-term rates due to inflation concerns, enhances gold's attractiveness as a hedge against risk [11]. - Central banks remain significant buyers of gold, with a long-term trend of increasing purchases, despite a slowdown in reported purchases in the first half of the year [11]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent actions by Trump against the Federal Reserve may encourage other central banks to diversify their holdings away from the dollar and towards gold, as central bank leaders are particularly cautious about the risks of being dependent on the dollar [12].

Group 1 - A global bond sell-off is intensifying due to a surge in corporate debt issuance and concerns over fiscal conditions in developed countries, affecting U.S. Treasuries, European bonds, and spreading to Japan [1][2] - The record corporate bond issuance, with at least $90 billion in investment-grade debt issued globally, has made this week one of the busiest in the credit market this year, with European issuance reaching a record €49.6 billion in a single day [2][3] - The rise in bond yields is diminishing the attractiveness of stocks, leading to pressure on Asian equity markets, while the Japanese yen weakens amid domestic political uncertainty [1][2] Group 2 - In Japan, local political uncertainties are exacerbating bond market pressures, with concerns over the potential resignation of a key ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, increasing political volatility [3] - The upcoming 30-year government bond auction is causing cautious sentiment among investors, contributing to selling pressure on long-term bonds, with the 30-year yield reaching 3.28%, the highest on record [3] - The U.S. yield curve is under pressure to steepen, with analysts noting that the long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields, influenced by various factors including upcoming employment data [7][8]