从推动税收公平整治"内卷式"竞争，优化调整税收政策，到谋划增量政策支持"投资于人"，近段时间财 税部门在财政收支两端动作频频，彰显下半年财政政策坚持"更加积极"的取向。增量财政政策密集出台 的背后，亦反映出我国财政政策思路正在加快转向"投资于人"，以"更加精准、更可持续"的施策，在提 振消费与"投资于人"两端同步发力。 "只有让企业在同一套规则下竞争，才能真正遏制地方'政策内卷'和企业'投机内卷'，使市场活力从寻租 转向创新。"孙鲲鹏补充道。 支出加速"投资于人" 过去一个月，全国一般公共预算支出中社会保障和就业支出、卫生健康支出、文化旅游体育与传媒支出 力度进一步加大，支出结构转向"投资于人"更加明显。"蓄势待发"的新型政策性金融工具、尚有较大规 模的地方政府专项债券，也将更多支持民生保障、消费基础设施等领域，共同助力经济结构转型升级。 从新中国成立以来首次大范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放育儿补贴，到针对个人消费贷款和服务业经 营主体贷款进行政策贴息，一系列减轻家庭生育、养育、教育负担，激发居民消费需求的增量财政政策 在近期密集推出，均表明我国宏观政策思路在加快转变，更加关注惠民生、促消费。 "反内卷"拉动 ...

扩大有效投资 新型政策性金融工具"蓄势待发" "据我们观察地方透露出的信息，政策性金融工具有利于发挥'调结构+稳经济'两方面的作用。一方面， 围绕新兴产业予以支持，另一方面针对基础设施予以支持，考虑到今年上半年基建投资增速相对放缓， 且前7个月基建投资增速较上半年进一步回落，政策性金融工具发挥作用，有利于加快基建投资的推进 节奏，为稳增长提供助力。"中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅向记者表示。 除了新型政策性金融工具，扩大有效投资的"组合拳"也在持续发力。国家发展改革委政策研究室主任、 新闻发言人蒋毅8月初表示，下一步，国家发展改革委将会同各部门各地方，加强统筹协调和要素保 障，加快项目建设进度，高质量推动"两重"建设。截至8月1日，今年"两重"建设项目清单8000亿元已全 部下达完毕，中央预算内投资7350亿元已基本下达完毕。 ◎记者 于祥明 近期，国家发展改革委将报批加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具。多地也在积极"备战"相关项目的储备 申报工作。 记者注意到，国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈8月1日在解读当前经济形势和经济工作的新闻发 布会上表示，将积极扩大有效投资，国家发展改革委近期将报批加快设立 ...

周度报告——股指期货 A 股多头格局延续，关注中报季扰动 | 走势评级: | | --- | [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a沪ry]指突破 3800 点 股 指 期 货 本周（08/18-08/22）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 0.34%，其中发达市场（+0.44%）>前沿市场（-0.24%）> 新兴市场（-0.46%）。瑞士股市涨 2.14%领跑全球，中国台湾股 市跌 4.93%全球表现最差。中国权益资产大涨，分市场看，A 股> 中概股>港股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额高达 25880 亿元，环 比上周（21022 亿元)放量 4858 亿元。各指数普遍涨超 3%，其中 科创 50 涨 13.31%表现最好，上证 50 涨幅 3.38%跑输大盘。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 30 个上涨（上周 22 个），0 个下跌（上 周 8 个）。领涨行业为通信（+10.47%），跑输最多的行业为房 地产（+0.98%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率上行，1Y 上 行，利差扩大。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周减少 10 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ET ...

宏观周报 2025 年 08 月 24 日 新型政策性金融工具即将落地 宏观研究团队 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  | 国内宏观政策：新型政策性金融工具即将落地 | 过去两周（8 月 9 日-8 月 23 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，政策包括国家主席习近平在《促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发 展》中强调要扎扎实实落实促进民营经济发展的政策措施；国务院总理李强主持 国务院第九次全体会议，强调持续激发消费潜力，系统清理消费领域限制性措施； 国常会讨论进一步强化财税金融等政策支持，综合施策释放内需潜力等。 基建与产业方面, 《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》发布，对服务业经 营主体贷款给予财政贴息；工信部等六部门部署进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序工 作，要求加强产业调控、遏制低价无序竞争；国家发展改革委将报批加快设立投 放新型政策性金融工具，地方正积极筹备 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply Slightly Increases, Demand Improves, Lithium Prices May Find Support" [2] - Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain largely unchanged, with both supply and demand increasing. Although inventory is still high, it is being depleted. The report suggests a light - position, short - term long strategy when prices are low, while controlling risks [5] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - The closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton as of August 22, 2025, a weekly decrease of 7,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 9.14% and an amplitude of 13.81%. The near - far month spread was 220 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton [5][11] Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 83,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,200 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,940 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 9,140 yuan/ton [17] Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Concentrate - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 970 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 86 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1778, a weekly increase of 0.07% [21] Lithium Mica - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,825 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 615 yuan/ton [26] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply - As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The monthly output was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a monthly decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] Demand - **Electrolyte and Related Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8,000 yuan/ton [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The operating rate was 51%, a monthly decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [39] - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The operating rate was 52%, a monthly increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of mainstream ternary materials continued to strengthen [42] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price of lithium manganate was 34,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton [47] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price of lithium cobaltate was 235,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton [50] Application End - New Energy Vehicles - As of July 2025, the monthly production of new - energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a monthly decrease of 1.97%; the monthly sales were 1,262,000 units, a monthly decrease of 5.04%. The penetration rate was 44.99%, a monthly increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million units, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57] Group 5: Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [60]

2025.08. 22 本文字数：1631，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 更加积极财政政策陆续落地，推动经济平稳运行。 根据财政部最新数据，今年前7个月广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收入合计 约15.9万亿元，与去年同期基本持平。广义财政支出约21.5万亿元，同比增长约9.3%。广义财政支 出超出收入约5.6万亿元，同比增长约47%。 财政支出规模及结构是衡量财政政策扩张程度的重要指标。今年前7个月广义财政支出增速（9.3%） 明显高于经济增速（上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%），折射出更加积极财政政策的落地。 中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪认为，整体来看，前7个月财政数据总量和结构基本延续持续改善 趋势。在土地收入维持平稳、印花税（含证券交易印花税）大幅增长情形下，7月广义财政收入增速 改善、回暖。在政府债发行前置下，广义财政支出力度加快上行，对经济增长起到了重要支撑。 今年以来，广义财政收入降幅持续缩窄，直至今年前7个月这一数据与去年同期持平。这主要得益于 税收收入和地方政府土地出让收入降幅的缩窄。 财政部数据显示，今年一季度全国税收收入同比下降3.5%，此后四个月税 ...

01. 宏观要闻 1、商务部新闻发言人何咏前8月21日在商务部例行新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，国际经贸发展面临的 风险挑战明显增多，在这样复杂的大背景下，中国外贸保持稳中有进态势，累计进出口增速逐月回升， 前7个月实现3.5%的增长，量质齐升，十分不易。当前全球经贸发展仍面临很大不确定性，我们有信 心、有底气，继续推动外贸稳量提质，并与更多贸易伙伴共同应对挑战，共享发展机遇。 02. 行业新闻 1、8月22日，国家药品监督管理局副局长杨胜在国新办发布会上表示，全方位筑牢药品安全底线，对国 家集采中选产品实行生产企业检查和中选品种抽查，100%全覆盖。严格按照国际公认标准，开展仿制 药质量和疗效一致性评价，监督保障仿制药安全有效。 2、据央视新闻，为提升氢能汽车产业核心竞争力，更好地发挥计量对氢能汽车产业的技术支撑和保障 作用，近日，市场监管总局批准依托位于重庆的中国汽车工程研究院股份有限公司筹建国家氢能汽车产 业计量测试中心。 2、据21世纪经济报道，自今年5月以来，多地围绕新型政策性金融工具开展政策宣讲会或者项目筹备 会。近期，部分地方更是进一步梳理出入库项目清单，明确了申报基金的金额。 从地方透露信息来看 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The State Council has issued a notice regarding the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction and Operation of Existing PPP Projects," which has received approval from the State Council, marking the arrival of regulatory guidance for existing PPP projects [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of ensuring the smooth progress of projects, with government debt clearly designated for the payment of existing projects [11] - The report highlights the need for mid-term focus on sustained growth, with fiscal efforts and major projects as two key drivers [11] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Regulatory Guidance**: The issuance of regulatory guidance for existing PPP projects aims to optimize credit approval processes and ensure the stability of credit funds, which will enhance the government's payment capacity for these projects [11] - **Asset Quality Improvement**: If the implementation of PPP projects is secured, it is expected to solidify the asset quality of construction companies, potentially leading to a recovery in price-to-book ratios [11] - **Fiscal and Project Initiatives**: The report outlines that the urgency for stabilizing growth has increased, with expectations for new policy financial tools and significant project investments to support infrastructure development [11] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises with low price-to-book ratios and ecological landscape companies, particularly those benefiting directly from PPP projects and major regional developments [11]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 事项 7 月广义财政收入同比 3.6% ， 6 月同比 2.8% ； 7 月广义财政支出同比 12.1% ， 6 月同比 17.6% 。 报告摘要 一、下半年"财政退坡"值得担心吗？ （一）什么是 " 财政退坡 " ？ 全国财政预算在每年 3 月制定完毕，若后续执行中无预算调整 （增发债务）， 则 财政明显前倾的年份， 下半年或面临支出增速掉档，称为"财政退坡" ； 如 2022 年，受新增专项债前置发行等因素影响 ， 上半 年广义财政支出同比 12.4% ，下半年仅为 -4.6% 。 （二）为什么今年下半年可能出现 " 财政退坡 " ？ 一种观点认为， 下半年财政力度回落或明显拖累经济、仍需超常规增量政策对冲 ：今年上半年， 财政靠前 发力、支出增速较高 （ 8.9% ，全年目标或约 3.4%~5.1% ， 详见报告 《财政三个关切思辩：规模、缺 口、乘数》 ） ：若年内不再推出超常规增量政策 ， 今年下半年广义财政支出或约 -0.4~2.1% ，为 2022 年以来同期 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In July, the broad fiscal revenue increased by 3.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% in June[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure in July rose by 12.1% year-on-year, down from 17.6% in June[1] - The public fiscal revenue in July marked the highest monthly growth of the year, with tax revenue showing positive growth for four consecutive months[15] Group 2: Concerns about Fiscal Decline - "Fiscal decline" refers to a significant drop in expenditure growth in the second half of the year if no budget adjustments are made[2] - There is a risk of fiscal decline this year, with potential expenditure growth ranging from -0.4% to 2.1% in the second half, marking the lowest since 2022[9] - The gap between the first and second half of the fiscal expenditure growth could reach 6.8% to 9.3%, the largest since 2022[9] Group 3: Economic Impact and Adjusted Expenditure - Even without extraordinary fiscal policies, the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth in the second half is estimated to be between 4.1% and 6.7%, comparable to the first half's 4.5%[10] - The adjusted fiscal expenditure growth aligns with the economic growth target of approximately 4.7% to 4.8% for the second half[10] - The analysis suggests that the actual economic support from fiscal measures may not be significantly lower than in the first half[10] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Tax revenue from the manufacturing sector, including railways and aerospace, saw significant monthly growth rates of over 33%, 10%, and 8% respectively[18] - Social welfare expenditures contributed 3.5 percentage points to the expenditure growth in July, while infrastructure spending had a negative impact of 0.7 percentage points[33] - Government fund income growth slowed to 8.9% in July, primarily due to a decrease in land sale revenue growth to 7.2%[45]