软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因感恩节休市，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13640 元/吨，主力合 | 震荡 | | | 约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14480 元/吨， | | | | 较前一日上涨 5 元/吨。国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约逐渐移仓中，期价环比基本 | | | | 收平。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当下市场的压力在于供应端， | | | | 市场对新棉增产幅度有分歧，但是大幅增产是确定的，且目前是供应压力高峰期， | | | | 未来一段时间也是，棉价上方压力较大。下方支撑在于成本、需求与预期。年度籽 | | | | 棉收购成本已经固化，目前看纺企有利润下开机稳定，终端纺服零售表现也尚可。 | | | | 随着时间推移，供应的压力会逐渐减弱，供需格局或将结构性转变。12 月有重磅 | | | | 会议，值得市场期待。综合来看，我们认为短期郑棉仍将在当前位置震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overall, the domestic demand for ethylene glycol in the demand side has declined at a moderate pace. After the liberalization of BIS, the export orders for filament have increased significantly. The polyester demand is expected to remain above 91% in November, and the average monthly load in December is expected to be adjusted from 90% to slightly below 91%. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. However, the coking coal trading in the cost side has weakened, indicating a reduced concern about the cost side, and the price has continued to break through and decline. In the long - term, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of oversupply in supply - demand cannot be reversed. The current expectation of near - end explicit inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability against supply - side accidents has also increased. Therefore, the idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In terms of the downward space, the cash flow of the current coal - based marginal ethylene glycol devices has been compressed below the cost line. Considering the start - up situation of coal - based devices, if the valuation continues to be compressed, it is expected to receive strong support from the supply side around 3700. Specifically, for the 01 contract, short positions or selling call options can be considered above 3900 [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 3650 - 4100 | 16.39% | 34.0% | | PX | 6300 - 7100 | 14.77% | 37.9% | | PTA | 4300 - 4900 | 11.91% | 15.7% | | Bottle Chips | 5400 - 6000 | 9.91% | 13.7% | [4] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ethylene glycol price, for long - position spot exposure, shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3880 - 3980 can lock in profits and make up for production costs. Buying put options (EG2601P3750) and selling call options (EG2601C3900) with a 50% hedging ratio can prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3700 - 3750 can lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (EG2601P3750) with a 75% hedging ratio can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [4]. Polyester Daily Table 01 - **Price**: It shows the prices of various polyester - related products on 2025 - 11 - 27, 2025 - 11 - 26, and 2025 - 11 - 20, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester fibers, etc., as well as their daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Spread**: It includes the basis differences of TA, EG, PF, and the month - to - month spreads of PX, TA, EG, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [8][9]. - **Processing Fee**: It shows the processing fees and profits of various products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, naphtha cracking spread, etc., and their daily and weekly changes. It also includes the production and sales rates of polyester products [9]. Core Contradictions - Demand for polyester remains relatively high, with an expected load of over 91% in November and an adjusted average monthly load of slightly below 91% in December. Supply - side device accidents have led to a slowdown in inventory accumulation, but the weakening of coking coal trading in the cost side has reduced cost concerns, and the price has continued to decline. In the long - term, the oversupply situation persists, and the valuation pressure pattern cannot be reversed. The expectation of near - end inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability has increased. The idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. The ethylene glycol price is expected to receive support around 3700 [5]. 利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Interpretations") - Recently, there have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices in the Chinese mainland, involving a total capacity of 1 million tons. Some overseas shutdown devices' restart expectations have also been delayed [6]. 利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Interpretations") - A new 830,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China is planned to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and it is expected to bring a small additional supply increment in December [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a complex trend. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market conditions, presenting different price trends such as consolidation, upward or downward movement [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different medium - and short - term outlooks. Some products are expected to be strong in the medium term, while others have limited medium - term rebound space or are in a state of range - bound consolidation [3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly consolidating around the 5 - day moving average. Tight supply in Shandong has pushed up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Stable domestic supply and weakening demand have led to poor market trading [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are volatile. Although there are factors such as potential supply improvement and rising prices, high arrival expectations and weakening demand may lead to range - bound consolidation [3] - Styrene futures are consolidating at a low level. Improved supply - demand structure and repaired profits may keep the short - term state, with limited upward momentum [3] Polyester - PX is expected to be weak in the short term but strong in the medium term due to factors such as weakened demand and potential supply decline from maintenance [5] - PTA is driven by cost, with expectations of improved processing margins. Ethylene glycol has short - term price rebounds but limited medium - term upside [5] - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle chip is mainly cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's near - month contract is strong, and there are expectations of port destocking. It may be appropriate to go long unilaterally or do positive spreads on the month - to - month difference [6] - Urea prices may return to a stalemate. Although there is demand release, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC is in a volatile trend. With potential improvement in exports and cost support, it may follow cost changes [7] - Caustic soda is also volatile. High production and weak demand lead to a weak market, and attention should be paid to profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a volatile trend. Although there is destocking, the long - term supply may exceed demand. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8] - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with potential production line cold repairs and cost support [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].

来源：新浪网 2025年11月25日，国内主力合约涨多跌少，碳酸锂涨超4%，沪银、多晶硅涨近3%，苹果、、沪金、玻 璃涨超1%。跌幅方面，集运欧线跌近8%，棕榈油、低硫（LU）、跌超1%。 富宝资讯数据显示，今日富宝电碳基差指数为-460元/吨（持平）；电池级碳酸锂报90000元/吨（持 平）；工业级碳酸锂（综合）报89000元/吨（持平）；电池级碳酸锂长协均价83550元/吨（+400元/ 吨）；氢氧化锂指数报79667元/吨（持平）；金属锂指数报610000元/吨（持平）；富宝卤水（硫酸 锂）折扣系数报76%（持平）。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

每经AI快讯，11月24日，玻璃期货主力合约涨超2%，现报1007元/吨。 ...

1. 21日玻璃走低,纯碱震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期资金博弈剧烈,价格大幅走弱。基本面上供给整体持 稳。淡季来临,整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃佔 值并不高。同时煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价 格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 刘草 交易策略 缅甸生仔 0000 250 200 8000 60000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 ITC国贸期货 世界500F 国贸期货有限公i 流的衍生品综合服务商 | 玻璃纯碱数据目报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 鸡蛋：淘汰加量，存在预期支撑 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2512 | 2,934 | -0.91 | -29,251 | -6,061 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,493 | -0.75 | -34,559 | 7,388 | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋12-1价差 | | -250 | -251 | | | | 鸡蛋12-5价差 | | -559 | -521 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | 2.90 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.58 | 2.60 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | 2.90 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 2.96 | 2.96 | | | | | ...