一、期货行情回顾 橡胶：暂时观望 橡胶期货 研究结论 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场震荡，周五夜盘再度走软 贸易战有再度爆发的风险 暂时观望 策略周报 策略周报（10.9—10.10） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2601 | 15180 | 15480 | 15150 | 15315 | +1.9% | | NR2511 | 12200 | 12520 | 12200 | 12350 | +2.07% | | BR2511 | 11145 | 11335 | 11120 | 11220 | +1.08% | 长假期间外盘表现相对平淡，价格有所反弹。但周末中美贸易战有再度爆发的 风险，胶价下跌，逼近前低。 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14600 元/吨，相比节前下跌 100 元/吨。 青岛保 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 短纤：预期驱动下跌，加工费高位震荡 瓶片：预期驱动下跌，加工费高位震荡 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6200 | 6292 | -92 | PF11-12 | 38 | 60 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6162 | 6232 | -70 | PF12-01 | -52 | -52 | 0 | | | 短纤2601 | 6214 | 6284 | -70 | PF主力基美 | 203 | 138 | ર્ રે | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 183370 | 185616 | -2246 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 365 | 6. 370 | -5 | ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1.铁合金在线：10 月 9 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5150-5250（-50），宁夏 5200-5300（-100），青海 5200- 5300（-50），甘肃 5250-5300（-50），内蒙 5250-5350（-50）；75#硅铁：陕西 6150-6200，宁 夏 5900-6000（-100），青海 6000-6050（-50），甘肃 6000-6050，内蒙 6100-6150（现金含税自 然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1050-1070，75#1120-1150（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#北方 报价 5650-5750 元/吨；南方报价 5750-58 ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 锡：加速上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 287,090 | 4.75% | 287,400 | 0.82% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 36,820 | 1.57% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 78,981 | 14,274 | 34,948 | 5,657 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 6 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 8 | | 锡：加速上行 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：冲击 50 新高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

2025 年 10 月 9 日 燃料油：短线转弱，波动将放大 低硫燃料油：开盘或下跌，外盘现货高低硫价 差继续收窄 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨 跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2510 | 元/晓 | 3.098 | | 3.47% | 3.044 | 0.63% | | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 3.007 | | 0. 63% | 2,995 | -2.03% | | | | LU2510 | 元/晓 | 3.450 | | 0. 00% | 3.450 | 0.00% | | | | LU2511 | 元/晓 | 3,394 | | 0.00% | 3.402 | -2. 30% | | | 期货 | | | 昨 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,900 | -200 | 170 | -1,710 | -800 | 70 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,730 | -30 | -160 | -240 | -85 | 120 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 127,190 | 29,433 | 74,291 | 22,598 | -9,622 | 41,032 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 224,083 | -51,373 | 38,379 | -93,587 | 45,546 | 8,552 | | | | 1#进口镍 | 121,650 | 450 | 550 | -1,150 | 50 | 450 | | | | 俄镍升贴水 | 400 | 0 | 0 | -100 ...

#行情 COMEX黄金期货突破3900美元/盎司。 ...

商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | 豆一：震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴光静 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 | wuguangjing@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3938 | -2 （-0.05%） | 3926 | -5（-0.13%） | | 期 货 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2601 | 2933 | -16（-0.54%） | 2931 | -6（-0.20%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1009.25 | -4.75（-0.47%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 275 | +0.1 （+0.04%） | | n a | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2950～2980； 持 ...