瑞达期货研究院 「2026.03.06」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 合成橡胶期货价格走势 合成橡胶期货主力合约价格走势 来源：博易大师 瑞达期货研究院 • 本周合成橡胶期货主力价格震荡收涨，周度+15.71%。 策略建议： br2605合约短线预计在13500-15000区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周山东市场顺丁橡胶市场价格出现大幅冲高，现货价格运行在12100-14100元/吨区 间。截止3月5日，两油资源商谈大幅上涨至14000-14100元/吨，民营资源商谈上涨至13450- 13700元/吨附近，且不乏更高报价听闻。 行情展望：近期中东地缘政治局势对原油及航运影响持续，叠加国内丁二烯端持续偏强运行，顺 丁橡胶成本面支撑延续强势。目前国内顺丁橡胶装置产能利用率仍处于高位，节后返市下游终端 提货及采购需求逐步跟进，主流供价大幅上涨的背景下商谈重心走高且成交明显增多，生产企业 库存明显 ...

中盛期货 20260306 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资格证号：F03149670 中盛期货 甲醇、塑料周度报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 甲醇、塑料期现货价格走势 | 周总结 | | 2026/3/6 | | 2026/2/27 | | 涨 | 跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | MA2605 | 2586 | | 2179 | | 407 . | 00 | 18 . | 68% | 元/吨 | | | MA基差 | -66 | | -27 | | -39 . | 00 | -144 | 44% . | 元/吨 | | | L2605 | 7691 | | 6597 | | 1094 | 00 . | 16 . | 58% | 元/吨 | | | L基差 | -261 | | -47 | | -214 | 00 . | -455 | 32% . | 元/吨 | | 甲醇价格 | 甲醇（太仓） | ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 3 月 3 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：3月2日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5]. - The recent "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices and stronger basis, which has boosted bullish confidence in the futures market. It's predicted that domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is on the strong side [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The digestion of bearish sentiment has led to the stabilization of methanol's oscillation [1]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply, especially the supply disruption in Iran, is the key support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The reduction of domestic port inventory has driven the recovery of spot prices, strengthened the basis, and enhanced bullish confidence in the futures market [5].

2026年02月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价以稳为主 | 9 | | 原木：小幅探涨 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -5.5 | -0.70% | | | I2605 | | 777.5 | 昨日持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic large feed groups have completed pre - holiday stockpiling in advance, with weak subsequent purchasing willingness. The market is interested in far - month basis contracts. Near the Spring Festival, soybean meal inventory will be passively reduced, but the large supply of Brazilian new crops and sufficient domestic forward arrivals will suppress price increases. The decline of US soybeans will also weaken the support for domestic soybean meal futures prices [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are running strongly driven by import costs and market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the continuous procurement of near - month shipments, which will limit the strengthening space of the basis, and the near - month basis may decline. After continuous rises, the short - term palm oil futures prices will experience increased high - level volatility [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The completion of pre - holiday stockpiling by large feed groups, interest in far - month basis contracts, passive inventory reduction near the Spring Festival, large Brazilian new - crop supply, sufficient domestic forward arrivals, and the decline of US soybeans [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend driven by import costs and market sentiment, the expected supply loosening due to near - month shipment procurement, and high - level volatility after continuous rises [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - **Glass**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - **Styrene**: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - **PTA**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - **Supply**: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - **Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - **Refined - Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].

Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1749.0 yuan, with a current price of 1722.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.59% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends for coking coal and coking prices, with some expecting a slight rebound and others predicting a volatile but generally strong trend [2][3] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures noted a slight rebound in coking coal prices, with overall coking profits being average and daily production slightly decreasing, while coking coal inventory saw a minor increase [2] - WISCO Futures assessed that the overall balance between coking coal, coking, and downstream iron water remains stable, but steel companies currently have low expectations for future market conditions, leading to a cautious inventory strategy [3] - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations regarding coal-related policies, despite an increase in coal inventory and stable iron water levels, indicating a focus on "anti-involution" impacts [2]

Group 1 - Report title: "Market Flash - Cost Support Drove BR to a Strong Limit Up Last Night" [2] - Report date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Li Fanglei [4] - Contact information: 19339940612 [4] - Futures trading consultation number: Z0021311 [4] Group 2 - The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber (BR) was 12,930 yuan/ton last night, with a strong limit up [3] - Since December 2025, the BR futures price has been rising driven by butadiene [3] - Recently, due to limited arrival of imported ships and high operating rates of downstream products, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, reflecting the strong fundamentals of butadiene [3] - In the medium term, there will be no new butadiene production plants put into operation in the first half of this year, increasing concerns about supply shortages [3] - Recently, funds have rapidly flowed into the energy and chemical sector, boosting rubber varieties [3] - The limit up of butadiene rubber last night was mainly due to the combined effect of raw materials and funds, and its own supply - demand situation has not changed significantly [3] - In the short term, the tight supply of butadiene is expected to boost the BR price, and traders should be vigilant against the callback risk after the release of emotions [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global market for soybeans has a relatively loose supply-demand situation, so there may still be pressure on overall prices [4][5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has shown some stability after a continuous decline, and the rapeseed meal market has a relatively strong trend, but there may be greater pressure after the supply recovers [3]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to face pressure in the medium term, and the price of rapeseed meal is expected to move downward [5][7]. - The trading strategy suggests a bearish approach for single - sided trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and a short straddle strategy for options [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally declined. For example, the 01 soybean meal contract closed at 2895, down 8; the 01 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2208, down 9 [3]. - The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions mostly increased. For example, the spot basis of 01 soybean meal in Tianjin increased from 440 to 450 [3]. - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The near - month inter - monthly spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was relatively strong [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the oil - meal ratio increased [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Market - The U.S. soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish [4]. - Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and exports are expected to increase significantly. The old crop has good export and crushing performance [4]. - Argentina's old soybean crop has a relatively large yield, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market supply was sufficient. As of January 16, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86% [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the rapeseed supply is at a low level [6]. 3. Logical Analysis - The U.S. soybean market has large inventory pressure, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand. It is expected to move downward in a volatile manner [7]. - Brazil's soybean price is expected to face pressure, and South American quotes have started to decline [7]. - The domestic soybean supply has uncertainty, and the spot market shows some support. However, the upward space is limited [7]. - The rapeseed meal market is expected to move downward, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [7]. 4. Trading Strategy - Single - sided trading: Adopt a bearish approach [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Use a short straddle strategy [8]. 5. Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazilian soybeans in different shipping months showed different changes. For example, the pressing profit in March decreased by 13.17 compared with the previous day [9].