期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-06 近期市场资讯，据统计，截至2025年12月18日，美国累计净签约出口2025/26年度棉花148.8万吨，达到年度预期出 口量的56.03%，累计装运棉花64.0万吨，装运率43.01%。本年度至今，印度棉花公司（CCI）累计收购籽棉约285 万吨，其中39%来自特伦甘纳邦。按35%的衣分率折算，CCI累计收购量折皮棉约99.8万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期ICE美棉预计仍将 承压。中长期看，美棉已处于低估值区间，进一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不明确，后续需重点关注 美棉的销售情况。国内方面，25/26年度国内棉花延续大幅增产，不过随着新棉销售进度加快，盘面套保阻力有所 减弱。需求端来看，随着双节临近，纱厂和贸易商备货较为积极，不过下游订单较前期有所下滑，成品走货放慢， 产业链库存尤其是 ...

油脂油料：需求旺季VS供应宽松 ，油粕上方压力大 （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 12月国内外油脂油料价格偏弱运行，油脂价格先跌后涨，蛋白粕价格偏弱震荡。菜系表现强于豆系，棕 榈油先弱后强。现货表现强于期货，基差走强。 豆类方面，1月巴西马托格罗索将开始收割大豆，大豆丰产压力面临兑现时刻。当下巴西存在销售压 力，一方面因为待销售大豆量高于往年，丰产叠加前期销售慢；另一方面，巴西大豆需求支撑减弱，中 国有部分需求选择对美豆政策性采购，挤占了巴西大豆可出口量，巴西国内压榨量也不及预期。巴西12 月出口预估不断下调、升贴水回落都是侧面验证。1月在巴西大豆收割启动之际，巴西大豆价格或跌破 400美元/吨，打压全球大豆价格。美豆方面，中国继续政策性采购，采购总量预期不变但时间延长，因 为美豆价格高于巴西大豆，中国外采购量放缓。市场等待1月供需报告中对美豆产量、库存的最终定 性，以衡量美豆和巴西大豆的价差。相当来说，CBOT大豆盘面的下跌压力低于巴西大豆升贴水。国内 来说，进口成本下跌或导致期货盘面价格重心下移。但更为重要的是，一季度供需盲盒将揭晓。目前市 场对国内一季度供需预 ...

客服产品系列•日评 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1460 元/吨，较上期价格跌 20 元/吨。供 应方面，原料焦煤价格继续下跌，给焦企仍留有一定的利润，区域内焦企开工积极性尚可，焦企多维持前期开工 水平，供给端稳中有升。需求端，部分钢厂进入检修期，钢厂高炉日耗被明显压制，钢厂对原料采购持谨慎态度， 钢厂盈利能力一般，多有控制到货现象。 焦煤：山西临汾地区主焦煤（A11、S3.5、G92）上调 7 元至出厂价 1097 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原煤 996 元/吨，价格涨 31；蒙 3#精煤 1050 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应端，部分矿井已经完成了年度任务，逐渐有矿 井限产、停产中间贸易环节以对后市持观望态度，个别地区部分煤种出货有所放缓。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】受假期因素影响空头平仓推动美糖周三震荡走高。因上一个交易日涨幅较大受技术面影响郑糖 2605 月合约周四震荡休整。夜盘。郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大延续震荡整理走势。农业咨询机构 Safras & Mercado 表示，巴西中南部地区 2026/27 年度糖产量料达到 3,800 万吨，较上一榨季减少 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇 期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。 同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Trend is strong [1][5][6] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1][6] - MEG: Demand is weak, and unilateral price continues to decline, with a weak mid - term trend [1][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite the planned polyester factory production cuts, the expectation of tight PX supply cannot be falsified in the short - term, and the short - term trend is strong. Attention should be paid to long PX and short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions, as well as the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [5][6] - PTA: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB positions and positive spread arbitrage. The tight PX supply provides cost support and continues to squeeze downstream profits. The short - term trend remains strong [6] - MEG: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and the mid - term trend is still weak. Polyester production cuts are negative for ethylene glycol demand, increasing the inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to whether unplanned production cuts and overhauls can be implemented. The short - term trend is weak, and a short - position allocation is maintained [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PX futures closing price was 7302, up 44 (0.61%); the PX1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 66, down 32; the PX CFR China spot price was 896 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars; the PX - naphtha spread was 335.45, up 30.34 [2] - **Market Dynamics**: On December 24, 2025, the naphtha price fell in the late session. The 3 - month Asian PX spot was traded at 896 dollars/ton. The Asian PX price continued to rise on December 23, 2025, after a brief decline in the Asian morning session. A PX producer said the recent spot price jump was mainly due to futures rather than supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5] 3.2 PTA - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the PTA futures closing price was 5082, up 42 (0.83%); the PTA1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 68, unchanged; the PTA East China spot price was 4955 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the PTA processing fee was 150.47, down 28.15 [2] 3.3 MEG - **Price Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the MEG futures closing price was 3623, down 112 (- 3.00%); the MEG1 - 5 month - spread closing price was - 119, up 2; the MEG spot price was 3522, down 93 [2] 3.4 Polyester - **Production Cuts**: Some major Chinese polyester producers may consider reducing the production of some products. It is reported that three major polyester filament manufacturers will implement a 10% increase in POY production cuts on Wednesday this week, and continue the previous 15% FDY production cuts [5]

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12月以来，锰硅期货及现货价格均自低位回升。主力合约累计上涨近200元/吨，现货价格亦同步跟涨， 但整体涨幅不及期货价格，基差延续弱稳运行态势。 供应收缩有限 12月以来，尽管锰硅企业普遍亏损，生产意愿趋弱，但主产区减产幅度有限，供应压力并未明显缓解。 截至12月12日当周，钢联统计的全国187家独立锰硅企业开工率为36.85%，日均产量为27035吨，自9月 中旬以来持续回落，累计降幅分别为10.53个百分点和3555吨。由于新增产能陆续投放，即便当前开工 率显著低于去年同期，锰硅整体产量仍与去年水平相近。其中，开工率同比下降8.18个百分点，但日均 产量仅较去年同期下降1185吨。分地区来看，多数产区产量甚至同比有所增加。 具体而言，主产区内蒙古产量维持弱稳，最新日均产量为13840吨，较前期高点下降1040吨，同比略降 800吨；宁夏产区走势趋稳，日均产量为6190吨，较高点回落1000吨，同比微降410吨，整体收缩有限。 其他地区表现分化：广西日均产量虽从高位回落至1320吨，但仍处于年内相对高位，且高于去年同期水 平；贵州日均产量回落565吨，略低于去年同期；云南地区降幅最为显著，日均产量为970吨 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about environmental protection speculation in winter. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to buy long - term contracts during peak seasons at low prices. The price trend of industrial silicon is also closely related to the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, production cuts on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected production cuts on the demand side due to weak terminal sales. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout in the industrial silicon industry, there is a lack of confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - regulation. - Electricity costs account for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect electricity costs and then industrial silicon prices. In December, the operating rate of industrial silicon producers is expected to decline. Downstream, the polysilicon industry is reducing production, the silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, and only the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable operating rate [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - Near - term trading logic (before the end of 2025): Environmental protection disturbances, and expected production cuts on both the supply and demand sides. - Long - term trading logic (after early 2026): The progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, and continuous attention to demand [4]. 3.1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - Sales management: For enterprises planning to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20%. - Procurement management: For enterprises planning to produce polysilicon, silicone, or aluminum alloy in the future, if the finished product price is not correlated, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with a recommended hedging ratio of 30% and use a combined options strategy (sell put options and buy call options) with a ratio of 10%. If the finished product price is correlated, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a ratio of 20%. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventory and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, they can short futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (sell call options and buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively [5]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 8, Jianghan New Materials announced that a 60,000 - ton/year trichlorosilane plant was put into trial operation in October this year, 10,000 tons of silane production capacity is planned to be put into trial operation in December, and another 10,000 tons each will be put into trial operation in mid - and late - next year. In 2027, optical fiber - grade silicon tetrachloride and electronic - grade tetraethyl orthosilicate plants will be gradually built. - On December 8, GCL Technology announced that its subsidiaries and other parties signed a partnership agreement to establish a limited partnership, which plans to acquire a 42.469% stake in Inner Mongolia Xinyuan Silicon Materials Technology Co., Ltd. from Hongyuan Green Energy and Tibet Ruihua for a total consideration of RMB 2.01 billion [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch No events to watch were mentioned in the report [7]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract on Friday was 8,412 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%. The trading volume was 619,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 113.65%, and the open interest was 460,100 lots, an increase of 19,000 lots week - on - week. The monthly spread between SI2601 and SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,619 lots, an increase of 1,331 lots week - on - week. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price quickly fell below the 5 - day moving average this week. The disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increase and price decline". The current price quickly fell below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth showed signs of widening. It is necessary to focus on the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton, and from Thursday to Friday, there was a characteristic of "short - position exit and price stabilization" [10][11]. 3.3.2 Option Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been strengthening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has also been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been rising, indicating an increasing bearish sentiment in the market [13]. 3.3.3 Term Structure Analysis - The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable. The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is at a relatively high level [17][19]. 3.3.4 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown different degrees of decline. The prices of industrial silicon powder have also decreased. The price of trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index remained unchanged, the price of silicone DMC was stable, and the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased slightly [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit - Since hitting the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit of the silicone industry is recovering [23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rates of industrial silicon from different data sources showed different trends. The weekly production of some data sources increased, while others decreased. The operating rates also showed mixed trends [30]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and warehouses showed different changes [47][48][50]. 3.5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The total inventory of polysilicon increased slightly, with different changes in the inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [51][52][54]. 3.5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys decreased slightly, and the inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased, while the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy decreased significantly [58][59]. 3.5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.12% [64]. 3.5.5 Terminal - The report shows the data trends of China's commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity [67].