2025年12月31日汇市收官，美元兑加元窄幅震荡，早间收于1.3696，微涨0.09%，盘中触及1.3700关 口。国际油价、美加央行政策分化及地缘风险，是短期波动的核心诱因。 加元作为商品货币，与油价高度联动。近期WTI原油企稳于每桶57.80美元，前一日涨1.6%，地缘风险 (委美冲突、乌局势波折)提供支撑。但需警惕"欧佩克+"增产压力，油价回落或削弱加元支撑。 技术面看，汇价处于高位震荡修正，运行于1.3620—1.3800区间，50日均线提供中期支撑。RSI指标近 50，短期无明确方向。支撑位1.3650—1.3620，跌破或下探1.3550—1.3580；阻力位1.3720及1.3800。 分析师认为，短期汇价或维持区间震荡。年末至2026年初需重点关注油价走势与美加央行政策信号。投 资者需警惕年末流动性收紧放大波动，建议谨慎操作，依托关键点位布局。 货币政策分化是关键变量。美联储2025年累计降息75个基点，市场押注2026年继续宽松，削弱美元利差 优势。不过12月31日美元指数涨0.21%至98.241，年末避险情绪为美元兑加元提供短期支撑。 加拿大央行维持2.25%基准利率不变，基调中性谨慎 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is transitioning from an event-driven state to a phase of reassessing existing pricing and consensus confirmation following significant macroeconomic events [1] - Market focus is shifting from "whether to take action" to "whether the policy stance remains restrained" regarding the Federal Reserve, with any statements on inflation resilience or policy patience likely to be magnified by the market [2] - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment continues to impact the market, with attention on whether the subsequent reactions, such as yen volatility and interest rate changes, will persist [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to exhibit a differentiated performance, with risk assets oscillating between emotional recovery and year-end caution, lacking new variables to drive sustained strength [3] - The foreign exchange market may enter a phase of range trading, with volatility stemming more from capital flows and position adjustments rather than a macro directional shift [3] - Overall, the market is in a rebalancing phase post-major events, with macro uncertainty persisting but the driving forces shifting towards expectation digestion and capital behavior [3]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘上午微涨，到下午出现了神奇两点半。 到收盘的时候大盘上涨比较多，一口气回到4.2星。 大中小盘股都上涨，小盘股上涨略低一些。 前两天下跌比较多的成长风格，今天也大幅反弹。 港股也整体上涨。 1. 最近全球市场，一些资产也出现了波动。 （1）A股中证全指，从10月份的高点，到本周二，大约回调了5-6%上下。 这个回调幅度不算太大。 今年1月和4月，A股都有过10%以上级别的回调。 不过三季度大涨的时候，进来了不少新投资者，可能刚开始投资就遇到了回调。 对新手投资者，这个波动也是一个考验。 港股最近的波动就更大一些。 另外亚太地区的股票市场，也普遍出现波动。 （2）除了股票市场波动，最近长期纯债也出现波动。 30年期国债指数基金，今年已经从高点，到周二，回调了8.9%。 这个回调比A股的回调还大。 最近几周长期纯债波动也比较大。 股票和长期纯债一般是有负相关性。 两者一起下跌，历史上不太多，往往是遇到流动性短期收紧的时候会出现。 例如2013年、例如2020年初。 2. 流动性收紧，也跟美元等政策有关。 （1）12月11日美联储降息。 但是美联储也释放了"鹰式降息" ...

宏观点评报告 陷入"决策僵局"中的美联储 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 核心结论 从降息预期的节奏来看，市场除了定价了 2025 年 12 月降息之外，2026 年 仍需降息 2 次左右。数据显示，2025 年 12 月降息 25 个 bp 的概率高达 87%， 2026 年 4 月和 7 月各降息 25 个 bp 的概率分别为 41%和 32.4%。 从近期来看，非农和通胀数据的缺失，使得基本面处于难以准确估量。首先， 就业的不同数据打架，劳动力市场真实情况被掩盖。根据 ADP 公布的数据， 11 月私营部门就业人数减少 3.2 万，低于经济学家预估中值的增加 1 万，证 明裁员力度加大。但是截至 11 月 28 日当周，初请失业金人数减少 2.7 万， 至 19.1 万人。另外，11 月 21 日当周持续领取失业金人数也有所降低至 193.9 万人。首申数据的回落表明，在经历政府停摆与政策不确定性后，企业更倾 向于通过"冻结招聘"而非直接裁员来控制成本。与此同时，续请人数持续 盘踞高位，印证了市场吸纳能力的疲软，失业者再就业周期被拉长。其次， 从价格来看，出口商、进口商与消费者围绕关税成 ...

至于比特币为何会跌这么多，一些专家分析的原因，总觉得都站不住脚。有的说是流动性收紧，但如果 是流动性收紧，为什么美股还在上涨？为什么黄金和白银也在上涨？难道不是应该在风险更高的资产上 抛售，转而投向风险更低的避险资产吗？但事实上，美股最近这段时间的反弹表现也不错，而且美联储 目前正处于降息周期，虽然日本在加息，日元的收益率也在上升，但这些似乎都不是比特币如此大幅下 跌的根本原因。只能说新兴加密货币的影响因子，目前还没有形成统一的认知。 比特币的走势确实令人关注，最近的表现可以说是相当惨淡。在短短24小时内，比特币价格就下跌了 7%，从最高点的126,000跌到如今不到84,000，短短两个月内跌幅达到了35%，今天比特币又下跌了7% 多，导致又有几十万人爆仓。由于比特币交易可以使用很高的杠杆，最高甚至能达到100倍，稍微跌一 两个点，就会有一批投资者爆仓，这也提醒我们，在投资这类高风险品种时，一定要谨慎使用杠杆，更 要谨慎对待。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the short-term volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and liquidity tightening, presents a buying opportunity for bulls [1][25]. Market Analysis - Despite a modest 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, two-thirds of the top 1000 companies have experienced declines exceeding 10%, indicating a significant internal market adjustment [1][4]. - The report highlights that momentum stocks peaked on October 15, coinciding with a notable rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) due to government shutdown concerns [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index reached its peak on October 29, the same day the Fed signaled a hawkish stance during its meeting [3][4]. Sector Recommendations - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the next 12 months, particularly favoring sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, finance, industrials, and small-cap stocks [3][25]. - The report suggests that the recent broad-based individual stock adjustments are a positive sign, indicating that the market correction is in its latter stages [7][25]. Liquidity Conditions - Morgan Stanley notes that high-momentum and speculative growth stocks are more sensitive to liquidity constraints, which have been tightening since mid-October [16][18]. - The report anticipates that liquidity conditions will improve as the government shutdown ends and the TGA balance decreases significantly in the coming weeks [18]. Employment Market Insights - Various alternative labor market indicators show signs of weakness, but not an accelerating trend, suggesting a gradual slowdown rather than a sharp decline [9][10]. - The upcoming official employment data release on December 16 may create uncertainty for the Fed's decision on interest rates, potentially leading to short-term market volatility [15][25]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook report presents contrarian views, suggesting that the market is in an "early cycle" phase, contrary to the prevailing belief of being in a "late cycle" [19]. - The firm projects a 17% earnings growth for Nasdaq-related companies by 2026, exceeding the consensus estimates [19][22]. - The report emphasizes that despite recent market pullbacks, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, supporting a positive outlook for small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods [23][25].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, highlighting that despite previous optimism for rate cuts in December, hawkish statements from the Fed have dampened these expectations [1][3][12] - Michael Hartnett from Bank of America indicates that various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, credit, and private equity, are showing signs of "liquidity peak," suggesting a tightening of liquidity in the market [2][10] - The article notes that the recent hawkish rhetoric from the Fed has raised doubts about further easing policies in 2026, leading to significant declines in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which reflect the impact of tightening liquidity on risk assets [3][4][13] Group 2 - Hartnett predicts that the current weakness in U.S. bank stocks is signaling a potential shift in Fed policy, similar to the signals seen in December 2018, where continued declines in liquidity-sensitive sectors may force the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance [4][11] - The article reviews the cumulative 316 rate cuts by global central banks over the past two years, which have fueled speculative behavior in markets, including AI investments and cryptocurrency speculation [5][13] - Looking ahead to 2026, Hartnett anticipates that the Fed will be compelled to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, benefiting long-duration zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks, which are sensitive to financing costs [6][11][15] Group 3 - The article highlights Japan's escalating debt crisis, with significant declines in 30-year government bonds and the yen, creating global liquidity concerns [8] - The combination of expansive fiscal policy and negative interest rates in Japan is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and pressure on government bonds, leading to a challenging policy environment [8][9] - The crisis in Japan may have ripple effects globally, potentially impacting U.S. dollar liquidity and affecting U.S. equities, credit bonds, and cryptocurrency markets [9][10] Group 4 - Hartnett emphasizes that cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, will serve as a leading indicator for changes in central bank policy, given their sensitivity to liquidity shifts [16][17] - Despite recent declines in cryptocurrency prices, there is a strong expectation for a rebound once the Fed signals a policy shift, as retail investment in cryptocurrencies has surged significantly [17][18] - The limited allocation of institutional investors to cryptocurrencies contrasts with the substantial retail inflow, indicating a strong market anticipation for liquidity easing [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The tightening liquidity is significantly impacting multiple asset classes, with the Federal Reserve facing ongoing pressure to lower interest rates, and the cryptocurrency market is expected to be the first to sense this policy shift [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - A total of 316 interest rate cuts have been made by global central banks this year, leading to a liquidity boom that has fueled AI investment enthusiasm, caused volatility in Japanese stocks, and spurred speculative behavior in cryptocurrencies [1] Group 2: Future Predictions - By 2026, the Federal Reserve may have to repeat a "policy pivot," necessitating a new cycle of interest rate cuts [1] - Long-term zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin, and mid-cap stocks are predicted to benefit the most from this potential shift in monetary policy [1] Group 3: Asset Class Sensitivity - Long-term zero-coupon bonds will capitalize on interest rate declines due to their long-duration advantage [1] - Bitcoin is noted for being highly sensitive to liquidity changes and often leads the market in signaling recovery [1] - Mid-cap stocks are expected to show improved profitability and recovery potential following interest rate cuts, as they are sensitive to financing costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below the $80,000 mark, reflecting a decline of over 30% from its historical peak of $126,000 in early October, marking a new low in seven months [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's latest price is $86,161, with a daily increase of 2.91% but a weekly decline of 8.32% [1]. - Ethereum is priced at $2,805, with a weekly drop of 10.12% and a monthly decline of 26% [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL, BNB, and Dogecoin have also suffered significant losses, exceeding 20% [3]. Market Dynamics - The downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, tightening liquidity, and a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index [3]. - Institutional funds that previously supported Bitcoin's rise are showing signs of withdrawal, influenced by a cooling of pro-crypto policies post-US elections and a correction in tech stocks [3]. Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened fear, with a significant number of liquidations occurring; over $1 billion in contracts were liquidated in 24 hours, affecting approximately 183,500 traders [3]. - The current situation is seen as a notable indicator of a deep correction in the cryptocurrency market, with widespread panic impacting market confidence [3]. Risk Factors - Investors face several risks, including liquidation risk due to leveraged trading, market liquidity risk, and policy risk, which can exacerbate market volatility [4]. - The fear of a bear market is prevalent among cryptocurrency participants, prompting discussions about the sustainability of the $80,000 support level [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the $80,000 support level holds, there may be a potential for a rebound, although the strength and sustainability of such a rebound remain uncertain due to ongoing adverse factors [4]. - Long-term price movements for Bitcoin are expected to be driven by macro liquidity, institutional participation, and regulatory policies [5].

Core Insights - The current financial landscape in the U.S. is marked by significant liquidity challenges across various asset classes, including equities, corporate bonds, leveraged loans, and real estate, with hedge funds holding a record 10.3% of U.S. Treasury securities [1][2] - Despite the resilience of the financial system compared to 2008, the sharp decline in the Federal Reserve's reverse repo balance indicates a reduced global market buffer, raising concerns about potential cross-border risk transmission to China [1][2] Group 1: Financial Risks - Cook identified four major asset areas that are forming an interconnected risk network, with commercial real estate vacancy rates rising to 12%, comparable to pre-2008 crisis levels [2] - The high yield bond spread has widened by 40 basis points since the beginning of the year, and the leveraged loan default rate has climbed to 3.8% [2] - The vulnerability of the U.S. Treasury market is highlighted by the high hedge fund holdings, which could trigger a vicious cycle of selling if interest rates fluctuate [2] Group 2: Private Credit Market - The private credit market poses hidden risks, with UBS predicting a potential 3 percentage point increase in default rates by 2026, significantly exceeding traditional risk assets [2] - The U.S. banking sector has a credit exposure of nearly $300 billion, making it susceptible to risk transmission from the private credit market [2] - A net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. international funds in April 2025 indicates declining attractiveness of dollar assets [2] Group 3: China's Response to Global Risks - China faces external financial risks through three main channels, compounded by domestic structural issues, including a reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.3 trillion to $757.25 billion [3] - The depreciation of U.S. Treasury prices could pressure China's foreign exchange reserves, while fluctuations in the dollar could impact oil import costs [3] - Increased sensitivity of foreign capital flows is evident, with a net outflow of 42 billion yuan in June 2025, affecting A-share valuations [3] Group 4: Impact on the Real Economy - The potential spread of default risks in the U.S. private credit market could dampen domestic consumption, impacting China's exports, which still account for 16% of its economy [4] - Rising costs in cross-border shipping and trade financing, exacerbated by previous shipping crises, have led to a 12% increase in logistics costs for cross-border e-commerce in 2025 [4] Group 5: Defensive Strategies and Opportunities - China is implementing a three-pronged strategy of "defense, hedging, and layout" to build a safety net against external pressures [5] - Financial management has tightened macro-prudential controls on cross-border capital flows, increasing the overseas lending coefficient from 0.3 to 0.5 [5] - The real estate sector is supported by special bonds and loan plans to alleviate liquidity pressures, with financing costs for property companies decreasing by 0.4 percentage points in 2025 [5] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - For long-term investors, the current market adjustment presents opportunities, particularly in undervalued sectors like energy and high-end manufacturing, which benefit from domestic capacity enhancement policies [6] - Historical trends suggest that quality assets previously undervalued during market corrections may experience recovery, with the current dynamic P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index below historical averages [6] Group 7: Resilience Foundations - China's ability to withstand global financial risks is bolstered by a balance of "open economy and self-sufficiency," with a capital adequacy ratio of 14.8% and a provisioning coverage ratio above 200% [7] - Significant advancements in energy and technology sectors have reduced the economy's sensitivity to external shocks, with a notable increase in clean energy share to 32.6% [7] - Expanding local currency settlements within the RCEP framework has decreased reliance on the dollar, with a 28% share of trade settlements in local currencies by 2025 [7] Group 8: Conclusion - The tightening of global liquidity presents both challenges and opportunities for China, which is strategically navigating through market uncertainties while enhancing its structural resilience [8] - By focusing on risk management and innovation, China aims to maintain stability and potentially serve as a stabilizing force in the global economy [8]