投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 陶前陈(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976164 | | | taoqianchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070014 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | 元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 中观景气 1 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 中观景气延续分化，元旦文旅景气显著增长，出入境需求增长亮眼；科技硬件、化 工/有色等周期资源品延续涨价；地产耐用品景气磨底。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 周期资源品价格上涨，科技硬件景气延续 2025.12.31 资产概览：全球风偏修复，商品权益齐涨 2025.12.29 融资资金大幅流入，外资与 ETF 持续流入 A 股 2025.12.29 成交活跃度上 ...

风险提示： 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 报告来源 报告导读： 美联储如期降息，贵金属及基本金属价格震荡走高。 贵金属：美联储降息催化，贵金属震荡上行。 美联储确认降息 25 个基点，且将根据需要启动短期美国国债购买操作，市场流动性预期良好，推动贵金属价 格稳步上行。由于库存扰动，伦敦现货白银价格突破 60 美元 / 盎司，并继续上行。预期圣诞节前，市场的流动性将保持宽松，贵金属价格将持续偏强。 铜：宏观扰动加大，铜价或震荡运行。 美联储如期并开始扩表，流动性趋宽，周内铜价创新高，但周五晚随着美 AI 担忧再起，叠加部分美联储官员放鹰，铜 价承压调整。近期美国 11 月非农就业人数， CPI 以及 PCE 等数据将公布，且日本议息会议将至，宏观影响加剧，铜价预计震荡为主。 铝：宏观提振下铝 价偏强运行，氧化铝价格持续承压。 宏观面上，美联储如期降息，铝价呈现震荡偏强走势。成本端，氧化铝供应过剩格局延续价格承压，叠加铝土矿绝对库 存量高位下，预计铝土矿价仍有下行空间。需求端，铝价高位与环保限产共塑淡季格局，铝加工开工率下滑至 61.8% 。 能源金属：需求强势，库存去化。 锂：上 ...

野村证券分析师在一份研究报告中写道，在国内需求依然强劲的推动下，马来西亚2026年GDP增长预计 将加强。 在政府实施结构改革和重大基础设施项目的支持下，投资支出强劲。国内劳动力市场趋紧将支持私人消 费，而科技周期可能支持马来西亚的出口增长。然而，野村证券表示，增长前景可能面临外部因素的风 险，如全球增长大幅放缓和科技周期下行。 野村证券将马来西亚2026年的增长预期从4.0%上调至5.2%，高于其对2025年4.8%的预期。（新华财 经） 野村证券分析师在一份研究报告中写道，在国内需求依然强劲的推动下，马来西亚2026年GDP增长预计 将加强。 在政府实施结构改革和重大基础设施项目的支持下，投资支出强劲。国内劳动力市场趋紧将支持私人消 费，而科技周期可能支持马来西亚的出口增长。然而，野村证券表示，增长前景可能面临外部因素的风 险，如全球增长大幅放缓和科技周期下行。 野村证券将马来西亚2026年的增长预期从4.0%上调至5.2%，高于其对2025年4.8%的预期。（新华财 经） ...

[Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 通胀修复，从 PPI 切换至 CPI 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 11 月 CPI 同比 0.7%，与预期持平，前月 0.2%。CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 剔除食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比 1.2%，前值 1.2%。核心 CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 PPI 同比-2.2%，低于预期的-2.0%，前月-2.1%。PPI 环比 0.1%，前月 0.1%。如何看待 11 月通胀数据？ CPI 环比符合季节性特征，翘尾支撑同比反弹。11 月 CPI环比-0.1%，略好于 2021-2024 年同期均值-0.2% （下文季节性对比均基于此口径），仍不及 2015-2019 年同期均值（0%）。同比方面，翘尾因素回升 0.6 个百分 点，推动 CPI同比回升 0.5pct 至 0.7%，创下年内新高。拆分来看： 一是食品环比上涨 0.5%，显著强于季节性（-0.5%），为主要拉动项。究其原因，受北方降温及南方暴雨的 双重供给冲击，鲜菜价格环比大涨 7.2%，显著高于往年季节性（-4.7%），单项拉动 CP ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in public fund research activities in the fourth quarter, focusing on high-growth sectors such as industrial machinery, electronic components, electrical equipment, and integrated circuits, indicating a strong interest in growth-oriented investments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Research Activity - As of November 12, public funds conducted a total of 10,115 research activities in the fourth quarter, representing a more than 50% increase compared to the previous quarter [1]. - Major public funds, including China Universal Asset Management, Ping An Fund, and Huaxia Fund, have been actively involved, with China Universal leading with 412 research activities [1][2]. - The focus of these research activities is primarily on the STAR Market and ChiNext, with nearly 60% of the surveyed stocks falling within these categories [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The four core sectors attracting institutional attention are industrial machinery, electronic components, electrical equipment, and integrated circuits [2]. - Notable companies in the industrial machinery sector include Xin Qiang Lian and Ou Ke Yi, while in electronic components, the focus is on Luxshare Precision and Zhongji Xuchuang [2]. - The electrical equipment sector features companies like Jiao Cheng Chao Sheng and Huichuan Technology, and the integrated circuit sector includes Ju Chen Co. and Wei Ce Technology [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The increase in research activity reflects a shift in institutional focus towards potential high-growth sectors for the upcoming year, driven by a consensus on improving macro liquidity and profit expectations [2][3]. - The current research emphasis is on high-end equipment, electronic components, and new energy support, with institutions looking to identify potential high-growth targets [3]. - Despite short-term market fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, the breadth and depth of research indicate a generally optimistic outlook for the market in the coming year [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report anticipates a deeper interaction between macroeconomics and capital markets in 2026, driven by policy guidance and industrial upgrades, leading to structural opportunities in technology innovation and green economy [2] - The capital market's funding structure is expected to become more balanced, with significant inflows into public funds and asset management products as residents shift from savings to investments [2] - The securities industry is poised for a long-term improvement in ROE, with a focus on AI technology applications and cross-border business layouts, potentially increasing ROE from the current 6% to 10% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Insurance companies are shifting from investment-driven strategies to focusing on genuine customer needs, leading to product innovation and value enhancement [2] - The report highlights the importance of the "super central bank" in managing monetary and liquidity cycles, which influences short-term and long-term interest rates [40][68] - The report notes that the current economic environment is characterized by a low interest rate central tendency, providing a loose liquidity foundation for economic transformation [76] Group 3: Financing and Investment Trends - The report indicates that the financing channels for the securities industry will gradually open up, supporting its transformation and upgrade [2] - Non-bank financial institutions are experiencing an increase in deposits as residents seek higher-yielding investment options, indicating a shift in asset allocation [110] - The growth of asset management institutions is highlighted, with a focus on alternative assets like ABS and REITs, which are expected to be good investment directions [116]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in October and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December, transitioning the liquidity environment from contraction to stability. - Domestic macro: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The manufacturing industry slowed down in October, but the construction and service industries remained in expansion. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds are being implemented faster, and investment recovery is accelerating. - Asset views: With the Fed's actions, Sino - US summit results, and policy announcements, market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation strategy. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, and precious metals have medium - to - long - term allocation value [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed's actions aim to manage risks during the economic data vacuum period, balancing growth and liquidity stability. - Domestic: Policy emphasis on "science and technology self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" has strengthened the focus on economic construction. The economy continues to stabilize. - Asset Allocation: Adopt a "balanced allocation, structural offensive" strategy, with different asset classes having different performance characteristics and investment opportunities [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, but there is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap stocks. Expected to oscillate and rise. - Stock index options: Market turnover has slightly declined, and the option market liquidity may be lower than expected. Expected to oscillate. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains weak, affected by policy, fundamental, and tariff factors. Expected to oscillate [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Expected to oscillate, affected by US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. Expected to oscillate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: The market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost support. Expected to oscillate, affected by special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to demand changes. Expected to oscillate, affected by overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors. - Other products in this sector, such as coke, coking coal, etc., are also expected to oscillate, each affected by different factors [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, with different influencing factors for each metal. For example, copper is affected by trade frictions, and aluminum is affected by inventory changes [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are in a situation of weak supply - demand and are expected to oscillate. Some products, such as ethylene glycol and styrene, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and trade [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - The agricultural sector shows a differentiated trend. Some products, such as protein meal, are expected to oscillate and rise, while others, such as natural rubber and sugar, are expected to oscillate and decline, affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [9].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on September 30, with the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) rising by 1.35% and trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF has seen consistent capital inflow, with net inflows for 9 out of the last 10 trading days, accumulating over 900 million yuan [1] - As of September 29, the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF reached a record high in both circulation shares at 3.469 billion shares and circulation scale at 4.852 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Technology Index, which includes mainland companies listed in Hong Kong engaged in technology [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include leading technology stocks such as SMIC, Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Xiaomi Group-W [1] - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with a net purchase of 43.959 billion HKD in the last week and a total of 1,153.689 billion HKD year-to-date, surpassing last year's total [1] Group 3 - Haitong Securities noted that the impact of major overseas events during the National Day holiday on the Hong Kong stock market is expected to be limited, suggesting a strategy of holding stocks through the holiday [2] - Guotai Junan highlighted the attractiveness of Hong Kong technology assets amid the AI-driven tech cycle, which continues to draw incremental capital inflows [2] - Western Securities remains optimistic about domestic AI computing and overseas chain sustainability, focusing on investment opportunities in AI hardware and the revaluation of Hong Kong tech companies [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points, attracting substantial capital inflow [1] - In July 2025, new A-share accounts reached 1.9636 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 70.54% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [2] Bank Strategies for Securities Account Opening - Major banks like Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank are actively promoting securities account openings through their mobile apps [4] - Bank of China has launched a "Silver and Securities Signing Goodies" campaign, allowing customers to access brokerage account openings directly through the bank's app [4] - China Merchants Bank is promoting its securities services with a theme of "New Start for Silver and Securities," collaborating with seven brokerages [4] - Industrial Bank is diversifying its approach by showcasing brokerage account openings across different app pages [4] Customer Engagement and Financial Products - Banks are also focusing on managing customers' idle funds, promoting their own wealth management products under slogans like "Waiting to Invest" and "Idle Funds Never Rest" [5] - The strategy aims to enhance customer retention and attract new clients by providing additional services [5] - The current market conditions are seen as an opportunity for banks to capitalize on the influx of new accounts and associated middle-income business growth [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Institutional investors are optimistic about the market's future, anticipating continued upward movement as deposits shift into equities [7] - Analysts from招商证券 suggest that the current market phase aligns with historical bull market patterns, indicating potential for further gains [7] - The创业板综合指数 is highlighted for its strong growth characteristics and focus on high-tech sectors, with expectations for significant investment opportunities in areas like carbon reduction and technology advancements [8] Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - The创业板综合指数 has shown strong performance, with net profit and revenue growth rates generally exceeding those of larger indices since 2018 [8] - The A-share market is witnessing a resurgence in risk appetite among investors, leading to increased trading volumes and a notable rise in margin financing balances, which have surpassed 2.1 trillion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market due to the scarcity of certain assets and their alignment with current industry trends [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since late June, the Hong Kong stock market has shown relative volatility, with technology stocks lagging behind sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - The overall increase in the Hong Kong stock market has been more significant compared to the A-share market since the beginning of the year, driven by sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and AI applications [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The current economic environment is characterized by a transition from old to new growth drivers, with significant changes in consumption patterns and the emergence of AI as a new upward cycle in technology [3][5]. - The AI sector is expected to significantly influence production and lifestyle, providing new economic growth momentum, particularly with the acceleration of large model technology iterations [5]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The scarcity of Hong Kong technology and consumer assets, which are closely related to AI applications and new consumption trends, is expected to attract continued capital inflows from mainland investors [4]. - The expected net inflow of capital from mainland institutions into the Hong Kong market could exceed 10 billion yuan, supporting the upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market [4]. Group 4: Company Performance - Major internet companies are increasing their investments in cloud and AI infrastructure, with notable revenue growth in cloud services, such as Alibaba Cloud and Baidu Smart Cloud [6]. - The current valuation of Hong Kong internet stocks is relatively low, with the Hang Seng Technology Index PE (TTM) at 20.8 times, indicating potential for significant upside as the AI industry cycle progresses [6]. Group 5: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou-W, Bilibili-W, Tencent Music-SW, NetEase-S, NetEase Cloud Music, and Xiaomi Group-W, reflecting the focus on companies well-positioned in the AI and technology sectors [7].