November 25, 2025 09:38 AM GMT 2026年中国经济展望 走出通缩：2026-27年中国经 济展望 中国经济进入打破通缩攻坚战的下半场—26年，通缩顽疾仍 存却边际改善，政策以温和扩张为底色、供给侧为主轴，反 内卷与再平衡进程则仍属谨慎推进，预计名义GDP增速仅录 得4.1%。27年，政策认知深化，改革共识凝聚，或推动供需更 趋平衡，实现走出通缩。 价格：通缩磨底，2027年迎拐点。整体来看，2026年通缩或仍将贯穿全年，2027 年，供需平衡的边际改善，才会让经济逐步打破通缩僵局，实现缓步再通胀。反 内卷将以市场化方式谨慎落地。而需求端，鉴于房地产的持续拖累以及渐进的再 平衡举措，复苏亦同样温和。因此，我们预计再平衡的过程将是缓慢的，CPI将逐 步迈入低通胀区间，PPI则有望在2027年下半年走出通缩泥潭。 政策：温⽰扩张，供给侧为主，工具定⺸。财政端，2026年官方赤字率料与2025 年基本持平，但准财政工具将撬动广义财政赤字扩张GDP 0.5个百分点，支出重心 锚定科技自主与基建投资，再平衡进程伴随定向补贴、社保开支边际加码缓慢推 进。中央层面虽存在支持房地产的可能性，但落地 ...

星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 除了中签率低，摩尔线程的发行价114.28元，是今年科创板的最高发行价，也是今年A股目前为止的最高发行价。 张力制图 11月25日晚间，摩尔线程公布的网下初步配售结果显示，网下发行提交有效报价的网下投资者数量为267家，管理的配售对象个数为7555个，其 中A类投资者获配数量占比98.44%，B类投资者获配仅占比1.56%，有B类投资者最少只获配了39股，又创下了科创板年内新纪录。 除了上述纪录，摩尔线程科创板IPO从受理到过会，用时仅88天，创下科创板IPO审核最快纪录。 透过此次申购可以看出，摩尔线程可谓火出了天，这主要是被它的系列光芒吸引所致。 "中一签赚50万元。"成了股民积极参与打新的动力之源。摩尔线程的发行价为 114.28元，按每签500股计算，投资者中一签需缴款57140元，如果 开盘当天上涨10倍，意味着一签的收益超过50万元。 尽管摩尔线程目前尚未实现盈利，但在科技自主、国产高端芯片加速替代的时代大背景下，其稀缺性和战略价值吸引了无数资金踊跃参与。 摩 尔线程 在招股书中表示， 相较于英伟达、 AMD 等国际巨头，其在技术积累与产品性能方面仍存在 ...

昨日，曾任江苏科技大学首席科学家的郭某因涉嫌学历造假、学术造假、侵占国家科研经费等问题被校方通报解聘，引发社会对科研诚信问题的再度关 注，而这也不禁让人想起一个月前另一高校教授的落马。不同的是，这位教授的落马不仅为其个人职业生涯画上句号，更结束了一个持续十余年的科学神 话。 时间回到10月17日，中南大学原校长、中国工程院院士张尧学，因涉嫌严重违纪违法，接受纪律审查和监察调查。消息传来，公众的第一反应是错愕。 而在IT和科技圈内，这更像是一桩旧闻的尘埃落定。2015年初冬，张院士正站在人民大会堂的聚光灯下，获得了"国家自然科学奖一等奖"的红色证书。 他所主导的透明计算理论，被誉为"中国原创""打破欧美垄断"的国之利器。在那个缺芯少魂焦虑弥漫的年代，这被视为中国科技得以弯道超车的希望。 十年一梦。从科学殿堂到阶下之囚，透明计算的闹剧，在其主导者戏剧性的退场后，终于迎来了它迟到的、却又无比现实的收场。 那么，透明计算是什么？它为何从炙手可热沦为笑谈？背后又反映了什么样的科技幻觉？ 透明计算的走红 任何一场神话的诞生，都离不开一个完美的故事和一群渴望的听众。透明计算的登顶，正是在恰当的时刻，讲述了一个中国最想听到的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for A-shares to experience a long-term upward trend similar to the U.S. stock market, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" which is expected to significantly impact China's economic structure and present investment opportunities [1][9]. Group 1: Stock Index Dynamics - The performance of stock indices is positively correlated with the market capitalization of listed companies and negatively correlated with the number of listed companies [2]. - The U.S. stock market has seen an average annual growth of 13% in total market capitalization from 2010 to 2024, with a low expansion rate in the number of listed companies [3]. - The Nasdaq index has a high concentration of market capitalization, with the top 8 tech companies accounting for 53% of its total market value, which enhances overall profitability [4]. Group 2: A-share Market Analysis - A-shares have shown an average annual growth of 11% in total market capitalization from 2010 to 2024, indicating a foundation for long-term growth [5]. - The rapid expansion of the number of listed companies in A-shares, averaging 8% annually, has outpaced the U.S. market, contributing to longer intervals between new highs in total market capitalization [6]. - Recent trends show that A-share total market capitalization increased by 50% from August 2024 to September 2025, while the number of listed companies grew only by 1%, suggesting a potentially better performance in this cycle [7]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to create significant investment opportunities, particularly in areas such as technology independence, domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing [10]. - The construction of a unified national market is anticipated to enhance domestic demand and may lead to a turnaround in cyclical industries like coal, steel, and chemicals [11][12]. - The emphasis on a comprehensive green transition is likely to accelerate opportunities in renewable energy sectors, including solar power, energy storage, and electric vehicles [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the 4000-point mark for the first time in 10 years, indicating significant changes in the A-share market as it approaches the end of 2025 and the commencement of the next five-year plan in China [1] Group 1: Major Changes in the Market - Change One: Slow Bull Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2748 points on September 24, 2022, to surpass 4000 points on October 28, 2023, taking 400 days with an annualized volatility of 15.28%. In comparison, previous surges in 2007 and 2015 took only 89 and 127 days, respectively, with higher volatilities of 27.94% and 23.01% [1] - Change Two: Shift in A-share Pricing Power - By Q3 2024, the scale of passive equity funds, particularly stock ETFs, has surpassed that of actively managed equity funds for the first time, with the current ETF market reaching 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant shift in pricing power within the A-share market [4] - Change Three: Leading Themes in the Current Market - The current bull market is primarily driven by sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment, reflecting a broader trend towards technological self-sufficiency and the global AI wave, alongside the narrative of revaluation of Chinese assets [5] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Significant Capital Inflows - Since September 24, 2022, the ETF market has seen a net inflow of 1.17 trillion yuan, with major inflows directed towards core A-share assets, technology innovation, and cyclical sectors [11][12] - Performance of Key ETFs - The Double Innovation Leader ETF tracking the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index has risen by 57.63% this year, while the Tianhong Growth ETF tracking the ChiNext Index has increased by 45.78% [8] - Year-End Capital Rotation - Following six months of continuous growth, A-shares have seen a rotation of capital, with significant inflows into ETFs tracking sectors like technology, securities, and consumer goods, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [14][18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant rating adjustments by brokerages, with a total of 23 stocks upgraded and 40 downgraded since the end of October, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors and institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Rating Upgrades - A total of 23 A-share stocks have had their ratings upgraded, primarily in the electronics, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, power equipment, and automotive parts sectors [2]. - The electronics sector has the highest number of upgraded stocks, including companies like Guangli Micro (301095), Zhongwei Company, Yuanjie Technology, and Luguang Technology (301606), which are involved in high-tech fields such as semiconductors and consumer electronics [2][3]. - The upgrades are largely attributed to strong performance growth, high technical barriers, and improved industry conditions for the listed companies [2]. Group 2: Rating Downgrades - Approximately 40 A-share stocks have had their ratings or target prices downgraded, mainly in the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, electronics, power equipment, and beauty care sectors [4]. - The downgrades are primarily due to short-term performance challenges, declining gross margins, and reduced industry outlooks, leading to cautious sentiment from institutions regarding these companies' short-term profitability [4][5]. - The pharmaceutical sector has the highest proportion of downgraded stocks, including companies like Aibo Medical, Microelectrophysiology, and Mindray Medical (300760), with reasons including competitive pressures and performance pressures [4][5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Major brokerages, including CITIC Securities and CICC, have released their 2026 annual investment strategies, generally optimistic about the A-share market's performance [7][8]. - CITIC Securities suggests that the A-share market is transitioning from a domestic focus to a global perspective, with expectations of a "slow bull" market characterized by low volatility during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [7]. - CICC emphasizes the importance of global capital flows and domestic investment trends, suggesting a balanced market style in 2026, with a focus on growth sectors and external demand [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the implications of the US-China trade relations, the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan, and the economic strategies of China and India. Core Points and Arguments US-China Trade Relations - The recent US-China trade agreement reached in South Korea is seen as more constructive than previous expectations, with significant reductions in tariffs related to fentanyl by 50% [2] - The agreement includes a one-year grace period instead of quarterly updates, indicating a more durable arrangement [2] - The framework suggests a strategic stalemate where both countries have mutually destructive leverage, maintaining low bilateral trade levels and high non-tariff barriers in technology and export controls [2] - China will continue to supply rare earths in exchange for US technology inputs, promoting domestic technological advancement [2] China's Economic Strategy - China's latest five-year plan emphasizes technological self-sufficiency and consumption upgrades to overcome supply chain bottlenecks [4] - Specific goals include increasing the consumption share of GDP and enhancing social welfare, such as improving rural pension standards [4] - The plan faces challenges due to severe economic imbalances and entrenched deflation, with expectations of a negative GDP deflator index until 2026 [4] Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, with signals from the governor indicating confidence in achieving inflation targets [5] - Political factors may influence the timing of rate hikes, particularly if elections are called [5] - The upcoming meetings in December and January will provide critical data on corporate profits and wage negotiations [5] Currency and Market Dynamics - The US dollar's short-term outlook is uncertain, with potential bearish trends in the medium term due to upcoming policy and political risks [7] - Asian currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan, are expected to remain stable, supported by a trade surplus of approximately $10 billion monthly [8] - The Indian rupee is projected to perform well due to central bank interventions and potential trade agreements, while the Singapore dollar is seen as an attractive financing currency [9] Investment and Economic Outlook - The new investment agreement between the US and South Korea is expected to reduce market uncertainty, with an annual investment cap of $20 billion that aligns with market capacity [18] - This agreement is viewed positively for the Korean won, minimizing potential impacts on its exchange rate [18] - The overall economic environment in Asia remains cautious, with expectations of continued low yields in China and India due to weak domestic demand [11][12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The Chinese government has prioritized 17 investment areas, including AI and biotechnology, which will receive increased budget allocations [6] - The competitive advantage of China in rare earth processing is highlighted, with a significant time lag for the US and allies to replicate this capability [14] - The potential impact of the US Supreme Court's decisions on tariffs and trade relations with China remains uncertain, with implications for bilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers [13]

Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a downturn, with the first domestic technology ETF (515000) declining by 1% and showing a continuous pullback for five days from its historical peak [1][2] - The ETF has seen a trading volume exceeding 800 million yuan, indicating potential capital intervention despite the recent price drop [1] - Key stocks within the technology sector, such as Jingwang Electronics, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongwei Company, have shown strong performance, while others like Deepin Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation have underperformed [2][3] Industry Trends - The Chinese government is accelerating the layout of the quantum information industry, with expectations for the market size to exceed 800 billion USD by 2035 [3] - Companies like Zhongke Shuguang are making breakthroughs in quantum computing, while firms such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are benefiting from the surge in global AI computing demand [3] - The technology sector is characterized by a "high before low" trend influenced by favorable expectations, with the recent US-China summit not addressing critical issues affecting the sector [3] Investment Opportunities - The technology ETF (515000) tracks the CSI Technology Leaders Index, which includes 50 high-cap, high-market-share, and high-growth companies from various technology fields [4] - The ETF offers a more balanced risk-return profile compared to other single technology sector investments, making it an attractive option for investors [4] - The ongoing AI arms race and the push for technological self-sufficiency are expected to sustain interest in AI-related sectors, including robotics and internet leaders [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. export controls on NVIDIA's advanced AI chips to China, highlighting the potential for China's self-sufficiency in technology and the diminishing reliance on U.S. technology [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Export Controls and NVIDIA - The U.S. has implemented export controls on NVIDIA's advanced AI chips to China, aiming to curb China's technological development [2]. - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the U.S. underestimates China's potential in the tech industry, as China can now produce millions of AI chips independently [2][4]. - Huang expressed a desire for improved U.S.-China relations to create opportunities for NVIDIA to re-enter the Chinese market [2]. Group 2: Impact on the Market - Huang noted that during Trump's first term, U.S. tech companies had the freedom to compete in the Chinese market, which was beneficial for establishing "American standards" in technology [4]. - Recent tightening of U.S. export restrictions has pressured American chip manufacturers to exit the Chinese market, leading to a significant loss of market share for companies like NVIDIA [4]. - Huang indicated that NVIDIA initially expected to capture a certain market share in China, but now anticipates that share to drop to zero due to current conditions [4]. Group 3: China's Technological Independence - Huang emphasized that the U.S. government's concerns about national security are unfounded, as China's domestically produced AI chips meet performance and supply needs [4]. - The article suggests that China has developed a robust technological ecosystem capable of supporting its own industry without reliance on U.S. technology [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and the current state of the U.S.-China economic relationship, particularly in the context of technology and industrial sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Consumer Spending** The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range (expected at 4%-5%) and aims to enhance consumer spending and productivity contributions, indicating a policy shift from supply-side to demand-side focus [1][3][4]. 2. **U.S.-China Phase One Agreement** The phase one agreement between the U.S. and China has led to a temporary reduction in tariffs (by 10%) and an extension of non-tariff barriers, providing marginal support for Chinese exports and capital expenditure, although competition in sensitive technology sectors remains [4][5][10]. 3. **Technological Self-Sufficiency** The plan outlines measures for technological self-sufficiency, including the establishment of a national computing network to promote AI integration with the real economy and support for critical sectors like semiconductors and quantum computing [7][31]. 4. **Challenges in Consumer Spending** To address the low consumer spending issue, the plan suggests enhancing labor compensation, optimizing fiscal expenditure, and implementing consumer-friendly policies such as trade-in programs and subsidized loans [8][9][20]. 5. **Solar Industry Developments** The solar industry has reached preliminary agreements to combat internal competition in the polysilicon sector, but the sustainability of these measures is uncertain. A unified national market and reform of local government performance assessments are necessary for long-term stability [13][31]. 6. **Investor Sentiment** Overseas investors are cautiously optimistic about market opportunities post-agreement, focusing on high-quality companies with long-term growth potential rather than short-term volatility stocks [10][27]. 7. **Focus on Emerging Industries** There is increasing interest from U.S. investors in China's industrial sector, particularly in humanoid robots and automation machinery, with a preference for companies demonstrating strong fundamentals and growth potential [27][30]. 8. **Future Policy Directions** Upcoming months will see a focus on the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the execution details of the U.S.-China agreement, and potential new policies in real estate and consumer sectors that could influence market sentiment [6][16][17]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Long-Term Economic Strategy** The plan aims for a balanced approach to economic growth, emphasizing the importance of improving overall productivity and consumer spending to avoid a downward spiral of low consumption and high savings [8][15][19]. 2. **Global AI and Robotics Trends** The development of humanoid robots is progressing, with significant orders signed, but challenges remain in commercializing these technologies effectively [28][30]. 3. **Investment in High-Tech Sectors** The focus on high-tech sectors, including advanced manufacturing and clean energy, is expected to create substantial investment opportunities, particularly in equipment and component upgrades [31][32]. 4. **Market Reactions to Policy Changes** The market's response to recent U.S.-China negotiations has been muted, potentially due to mixed earnings reports from Chinese companies compared to strong performances from U.S. firms [24][25]. 5. **Importance of Fiscal Policies** The emphasis on direct consumer support through fiscal policies is crucial for stimulating demand and ensuring sustainable economic growth [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future directions for investment and policy in China and the U.S.