信达证券近日发布钢铁行业周报：本周钢铁板块上涨3.35%，表现优于大盘；其中，特钢板块上涨 2.58%，长材板块上涨1.90%，板材板块上涨2.89%；铁矿石板块上涨3.53%，钢铁耗材板块上涨 10.98%，贸易流通板块上涨1.12%。 需求情况。截至1月9日，五大钢材品种消费量796.8万吨，周环比下降44.20万吨，周环比下降5.26%。 截至1月9日，主流贸易商建筑用钢成交量9.5万吨，周环比下降0.24万吨，周环比下降2.47%。 库存情况。截至1月9日，五大钢材品种社会库存865.2万吨，周环比增加14.39万吨，周环比增加 1.69%，同比增加10.75%。截至1月9日，五大钢材品种厂内库存388.8万吨，周环比增加7.38万吨，周环 比增加1.94%，同比增加10.71%。 钢材价格&利润。截至1月9日，普钢综合指数3452.2元/吨，周环比增加13.30元/吨，周环比增加0.39%， 同比下降3.79%。截至1月9日，特钢综合指数6585.2元/吨，周环比增加11.93元/吨，周环比增加0.18%， 同比下降2.89%。截至1月9日，螺纹钢高炉吨钢利润为63元/吨，周环比增加15.0元/吨， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that multiple price indicators in China showed a rebound in December 2025, with CPI reaching its highest year-on-year growth since March 2023 and PPI experiencing its lowest year-on-year decline since September 2024 [1][3][5] - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, a rise of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% after a previous decline of 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, remained steady at 1.2% for the third consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in essential consumer goods [1][3] Group 2 - The increase in CPI was attributed to three main factors: rising vegetable and fruit prices due to previous rainy weather, the impact of year-end consumption promotion policies, and an increase in international gold prices affecting industrial consumer goods [1][2] - In December 2025, food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable and fruit prices increasing by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively, contributing significantly to the CPI increase [2][3] - The PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][4] Group 3 - The overall trend of PPI in December 2025 was positive, benefiting from the effects of "anti-involution" actions, which improved the supply-demand relationship in domestic industrial products [3][4] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, indicating a recovery in market competition and production capacity management [4][5] - The overall price level in China is expected to remain low in 2026, providing room for potential monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts [5][6]

记者 辛圆 数据显示，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。 展望2026年1月，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，伴随上年同期基数抬高，今年春节错期至2月，以及综合考虑当前各类主要商品和服务价格 波动趋势，1月CPI同比涨幅或有所回落。 "站在当前时点看，2026年物价水平偏低格局会延续，预计全年CPI累计同比会在0.4%左右，连续第四年处于低通胀状态。这为后期稳增长政策择机发力、 特别是央行适时降息提供了充分空间，也就是2026年仍无需过早过度担心需求刺激政策引发高通胀问题。"王青说。 国家统计局周五发布数据显示，2025年12月，中国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.8%，涨幅较11月回升0.1个百分点，涨幅创2023年3月份以来最高。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称，2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI涨幅有所扩大。 统计局称，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。2025年12月，食品价格上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月 增加约0.17个百分点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the economic operation was in the traditional off - season, but factors such as the late Spring Festival and the extended stocking cycle might boost industrial production. The export growth rate might decline slightly but still be better than that in October. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was expected to reach around 4.5%, and the whole - year GDP was likely to achieve 5% and end smoothly [3][6]. - For the bond market, there was little suspense about the economic data in December. The market mainly focused on the verification of the "good start" of the economy at the beginning of the year. With the concentrated implementation of macro - policies to stabilize growth at the end of the year, the "two new" policies were issued one week earlier than in 2025, and the support amount for the early - batch "two important" and central budget - investment plan projects also increased compared with the previous year. January 2026 was expected to be the window for the concentrated effect of the "good start" policies, and high - frequency verification during the data "vacuum period" should be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Inflation - CPI: It was expected that the CPI in December would rise to around 0.9% year - on - year. Fruit and vegetable prices supported the food price to rise above the seasonal level, and the non - food item was in line with the seasonality. The CPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][8]. - PPI: It was predicted that the PPI in December would rise to around - 1.9% year - on - year. The non - ferrous industry faced imported inflation pressure, and the prices of domestic bulk commodities such as steel and PTA improved. The PPI was expected to increase by about 0.2% month - on - month [3][6][14]. 3.2 Export - The export growth rate was expected to be around 5.0% in December. The export momentum in December was not weak, although the year - on - year growth rate of container throughput at ports was lower than that in November but better than that in October. The import was expected to increase by around 1.5% year - on - year, with the price support continuing to expand [3][21]. 3.3 Industrial The industrial growth rate in December was expected to be around 5.1%. The PMI in December returned above the boom - bust line, and the production sub - item further expanded. The late Spring Festival in 2026 extended the stocking cycle, which had a certain driving effect on production [3][6][24]. 3.4 Investment - The cumulative growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to December was expected to be around - 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was about - 1.5%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was about - 16.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was about + 1.2% [3][6][33]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail in December was expected to be around 1.0%. As the national subsidy funds were approaching the end, the marginal boost to automobile consumption from the subsidy decline weakened. The year - on - year decline in gasoline prices widened, and the drag on social retail from petroleum product consumption continued to increase [3][6][36]. 3.6 Financial Data - In December, the bill interest rate declined against the trend, reflecting the weak credit impulse at the end of the year. The new credit in December was expected to be about 80 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of 99 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year. The new social financing was about 1.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 58.85 billion yuan [3][6][45]. - The M2 growth rate was expected to remain around 8.0%. The new deposits were close to the seasonal level. From the asset side, the year - on - year growth rate of the credit balance might slightly decline to 6.3%, and the social financing growth rate might decline to around 8.4% affected by the high base of government bonds. From the liability side, the M2 in December might increase by 1.5 trillion yuan [3][48].

2025年12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数 （PMI）。 数据显示，2025年12月份，制造业PMI为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，2025年4月份以来首次 升至扩张区间。当月，非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升 0.7个、1.0个百分点。 "三大指数均升至扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师 霍丽慧分析认为。 产需两端明显回升 制造业PMI升至扩张区间 "2025年12月份，制造业PMI指数比上月大幅回升0.9个百分点至50.1%，超出市场预期。"东方金诚 首席宏观分析师王青表示。 大型企业PMI重返扩张区间。2025年12月份，大型企业PMI为50.8%，较上月上升1.5个百分点；中 型企业PMI上升0.9个百分点至49.8%，景气水平回升。小型企业PMI指数降至48.6%。专家认为，原因是 本轮稳增长政策以扩投资为主，大、中型企业受益更为明显。 重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势向 好。装备制造业和消费品 ...

每经记者｜张宏 每经编辑｜魏官红 日前，国家统计局公布的数据显示，2025年12月，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指 数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个、0.7个和1.0个百分点，三大指 数均升至扩张区间。 值得注意的是，制造业PMI时隔8个月重返扩张区间，制造业新订单指数则是2025年下半年以来首次升 至临界点以上。 制造业新订单指数回升 近期制造业方面有哪些积极因素？ 从企业规模来看，2025年12月，大型企业PMI为50.8%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，升至临界点以上；中 型企业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，景气水平回升；小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月下降0.5 个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 为何不同规模的企业PMI走势出现分化？ 王青认为，这背后是本轮稳增长政策以扩投资为主，大、中型企业受益更为明显，小型企业与消费市场 关系更为紧密，当前消费需求偏弱对其影响较大。 反内卷对产业链上下游价格影响如何？ 王青指出，反内卷对上游原材料价格的拉动作用依然较强，2025年12月主要原材料购进价格指数为 53.1%，尽管较上月回落 ...

前期稳增长政策继续落地显效，叠加外部不确定性阶段性缓释，带动内外需同步好转。12月份，制造业 PMI为50.1%，为2025年4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone for the first time since April, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment, driven by stable growth policies and resilient exports [2][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1%, marking a significant increase and indicating expansion [2]. - The production index stands at 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting accelerated production activities and improved market confidence [4]. - The new orders index has risen to 50.8%, indicating a recovery in market demand, particularly in sectors like food processing and textiles [5]. - Large enterprises' PMI has also returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points from last month [5]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI is reported at 50.2%, showing improvement in the service sector, although the service PMI remains slightly below the expansion threshold at 49.7% [8]. - The construction sector has shown notable recovery, with the construction PMI rising to 52.8%, marking a return to expansion after five months [8]. - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.4%, indicating increased confidence among service enterprises regarding future market developments [8]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Outlook - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, with a focus on balancing fiscal expansion and sustainable growth [3]. - The production and business activity expectation index has risen to 55.5%, reflecting enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises [7]. - The overall economic environment is supported by favorable external trade conditions and a strong global AI investment trend, contributing positively to exports [6].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in both production and demand in the manufacturing sector, driven by steady growth policies and resilient exports [2][3]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - In December, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first return to the expansion zone since April [2]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index also improved to 50.2%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a simultaneous improvement in non-manufacturing activity [2]. Factors Driving Recovery - The recovery in the manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and resilient export performance [2]. - The "two 500 billion" growth-stabilizing policies introduced in late September and early October have begun to show effects, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools fully deployed by October, boosting infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2][4]. Production and Demand Indices - The production index and new orders index for December were reported at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2][3]. - The new orders index has risen above the critical point for the first time since the second half of the year, indicating expansion in both production and demand [3]. Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises saw a PMI of 50.8%, up by 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, while medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 49.8%, up by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery [4]. - Small enterprises, however, experienced a decline in PMI to 48.6%, down by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting greater pressure due to weak consumer demand [4][5]. Future Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 55.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, indicating growing confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [5]. - The support from growth-stabilizing policies is expected to continue to bolster manufacturing sentiment, with projections suggesting that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the expansion zone into January 2026 [5].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In December, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, marking the first return above the growth threshold since April[2][4] - The increase in the Manufacturing PMI ended a continuous contraction of 8 months, with the current level being 1.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past three years[7] - New orders index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8, while the production index rose by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a slight widening of the production-demand gap to 0.9 percentage points[8] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 percentage points to 50.2, significantly outperforming the average of 48.1 for the same period in previous years[10] - The construction sector saw a substantial rise, with the PMI increasing by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8, while the service sector PMI rose slightly to 49.7[10][11] - In December, 10 out of 20 non-manufacturing sectors were in a growth phase, an increase from the previous month, with notable performance in postal and telecommunications sectors[6][11] Economic Outlook - The economic data for December suggests a potential recovery compared to November, with Q4 growth expected to be no less than 4.5%[3] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and local debt arrangements is believed to have contributed to the recovery in production and construction activities[3] - The manufacturing output price index has risen for two consecutive months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing competition pressures within industries[3][5]