10月8日，现货黄金升破4000美元/盎司关口，为史上首次，今年累计涨超52%。 此轮黄金大涨或存在几个重要的驱动因素。其一是对美联储降息预期的升温，以及对于美国此轮经济增 长的怀疑。疫情后的持续财政扩张，在支撑美国经济的同时，也弱化了美元本身的公信力，这使得黄金 成为了稀缺的避险资产。 其二则是地缘政治等风险事件的持续发酵。例如，美国国会参议院9月30日晚未能通过年度拨款法案， 时隔7年后美国政府再度停摆。 据浙商证券分析，本轮停摆主要由于两党对医保福利支出"是否加入预算案"产生分歧，共和党拒绝将医 保内容加入预算，因其"会给非法移民提供医保"。此次分歧也侧面展示了美国政府债务高企的现状，引 发市场进一步担忧。 国庆休市结束后，A股有色板块接棒上涨。 在金价大幅走强的带动下， 今日开盘，A股有色板块纷纷大涨，黄金股票ETF（517400）开盘大涨 7%、黄金基金ETF（518800）大涨近5%，矿业ETF（561330）大涨4%。 银河证券分析称，节后A股市场延续震荡抬升格局，其中近期一系列事件将刺激有色金属板块行情向 上。"国庆"期间大宗商品多数走强，贵金属（黄金、白银）同步上涨。虽然避险资产表现分化，如 ...

Group 1 - The gold sector experienced fluctuations on September 4, with gold ETFs down by 0.16% and gold stock ETFs down by 3.04% [1] - A weakening dollar provides long-term support for gold, with a significant possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Historically, gold has risen in 7 out of 10 interest rate cut cycles since 1980, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation [3] Group 2 - President Trump’s unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [3][4] - This event is seen as a challenge to the constitutional order and could lead to market volatility and fears of uncontrolled inflation [3][4] - Trump's team is reportedly drafting a plan to increase White House intervention in the Fed, potentially undermining its policy independence [4] Group 3 - The potential appointment of three Fed governors aligned with Trump's views could create a majority on the board, fundamentally impacting future monetary policy [4] - Global geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have enhanced the investment value of gold, with London gold reaching a new high for the year [4] - Continuous monitoring of gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) is recommended [4]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous and precious metals industries are expected to benefit from factors such as weakening US credit, escalating global conflicts, and tight supply conditions, leading to sustained industry prosperity [1] - Rare earth and precious metals, particularly silver, show strong investment appeal due to improved supply-demand dynamics and their safe-haven attributes [1] - Resource prices are currently supported strongly, indicating structural opportunities within the industry [1] Group 2 - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which includes representative companies across the gold industry chain, reflecting overall industry performance [1] - The index encompasses companies involved in gold mining, processing, and sales, making it suitable for investors interested in precious metal market dynamics and gold investment opportunities [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Link A (021673) [1]

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices contrasts with gold's stagnation, attributed to silver's industrial demand and its role as a shadow commodity to gold [2][3] - Other precious metals like platinum and palladium have also seen significant price increases, with platinum rising over 50% since April and palladium over 30% [2] - The macroeconomic backdrop for commodities this year includes concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to a decline in the dollar index by over 10% since the beginning of the year [3] Group 2 - The performance of gold and silver varies with economic conditions; during weaker economic phases, gold tends to outperform silver, while in stronger phases, silver benefits from increased industrial demand [3][4] - Historical data shows that during periods of rising global manufacturing PMI, the gold-silver ratio decreases, indicating silver's relative strength [4] Group 3 - In the black commodity sector, the current basis changes present trading opportunities, with significant fluctuations observed in the market [5][6] - The recent price increases in the black commodity sector are not fully reflected in the spot market, leading to discrepancies between futures and actual market conditions [5][6][7] Group 4 - The current market dynamics suggest a potential bottoming out for commodities, driven by low absolute prices and the emergence of demand, particularly from real estate and exports [16][12] - The market is experiencing a rotation of leading commodities, with polysilicon and lithium showing significant price movements [30][29] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a substantial increase of nearly 28% since September 2024, indicating a technical bull market [32][33] - The banking sector has been a major contributor to this rise, accounting for 24% of the index's increase, followed by the electronics and non-banking sectors [37][38]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to a new high of $39.13 per ounce, the highest since 2012, driven by strong industrial demand and safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in silver is attributed to a combination of robust industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, and increased safe-haven demand due to economic uncertainties [2][6]. - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to exceed 600 GW in 2024, leading to a steady increase in silver demand for photovoltaic silver paste [2][6]. - The silver-to-gold ratio remains significantly high, attracting institutional funds to shift from gold to silver, with the current ratio between 85-90 compared to the historical average of 60-80 [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The Silver Institute reported that as of June 30, 2023, global silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) held 1.13 billion ounces, with a net inflow of 9.5 million ounces in the first half of 2023, surpassing the total net inflow for the previous year [3]. - Analysts suggest that silver has outperformed gold this year, with silver's industrial properties becoming more favorable in a recovering economic environment [4][6]. - The overall supply-demand dynamics indicate a projected supply gap of approximately 11.76 million ounces by 2025, further supporting silver prices [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts generally believe that silver still has room for price increases in the medium to long term, despite recent price highs [6]. - The current high silver-to-gold ratio suggests that silver remains undervalued relative to gold, indicating potential for further price appreciation [6]. - The ongoing trends in the global economy, including potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy and the demand for silver in renewable energy applications, are expected to influence silver prices positively [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][59]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the medium to long term. As of July 11, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 1.61% to $3,370.3 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF remained stable at 947.6 tons. The World Gold Council reported an increase of $38 billion in global gold ETFs in the first half of the year, with total holdings rising by 397 tons to 3,616 tons. In the medium to long term, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit support a bullish outlook for gold [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: The imminent imposition of tariffs on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase short-term volatility. As of July 11, the LME copper futures contract fell by 1.9% to $9,663 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 143,700 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,900 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 108,700 tons. The announcement of a 50% tariff on all imported copper by Trump, effective August 1, has led to a widening price gap between COMEX and LME copper [5][6][58]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold: The medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to diminishing pressure from interest rate cut expectations and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. The total holdings in gold ETFs have increased significantly, indicating strong demand [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The upcoming tariffs are likely to lead to increased volatility in the copper market. Despite short-term challenges, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and low inventory levels [5][6][58]. - Aluminum: As of July 11, LME aluminum futures rose by 0.2% to $2,602 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased slightly, and the global inventory remains low. The supply-demand dynamics suggest a bullish outlook for aluminum prices in the medium term [6][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining, and for aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the surge in the leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876), which has seen a price increase of over 1.5% today after a two-day pause [1] - Key stocks within the ETF include Innovation New Materials, which rose over 5%, and other companies like Yongxing Materials, Huayou Cobalt, and Tianqi Lithium, which all saw gains exceeding 4% [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring trends in gold, rare earths, and lithium, with significant developments in each sector [3] Group 2 - In the gold sector, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, marking a $32.2 billion increase and the first time surpassing $33 trillion since September 2024 [3] - The rare earth market has seen a price increase for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, now priced at 452,000, indicating the start of a price rise in the domestic market [3] - In lithium, advancements in solid-state battery technology are noted, with Anhui Anwa New Energy Technology Co. announcing the successful launch of its first GWh-level solid-state battery production line [3] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Guotou Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in gold, copper, and rare earths, predicting that gold prices may reach new highs due to weakening US dollar credit and expectations of interest rate cuts [4] - The copper market is expected to see a price increase due to constrained supply and resilient long-term demand [4] - Rare earth prices are anticipated to rise as exports gradually open up and demand continues to grow [4] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its associated funds track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with significant weightings in copper (26.1%), gold (16.3%), aluminum (15.8%), rare earths (8.5%), and lithium (7.7%), providing a diversified investment option [6] - The current price-to-book ratio of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index is 2.24, which is below the historical median of 2.52, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical issues abroad are escalating, and gold is expected to maintain a strong trend. As of June 20, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.98% to $3,384.4 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.0% to 950.2 tons. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, aligning with market expectations. Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to U.S. policies, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, but the demand for safe-haven assets will continue to support gold prices. In the medium to long term, macroeconomic uncertainties abroad will amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, and the weakening of the dollar's credibility is becoming increasingly evident, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the long term [3][6]. - Industrial Metals: Both copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, and price centers are expected to rise. As of June 20, the LME copper futures contract rose by 0.1% to $9,660.5 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 145,900 tons as of June 19, with a slight increase of 100 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 99,200 tons, nearing historical lows. Despite being in the traditional off-season for downstream demand, the accumulation of inventory has been slow since June. Global visible inventory has further decreased since May, and the available days of global electrolytic copper continue to decline. Supply tightness is expected to become more pronounced, and the macroeconomic environment suggests that copper prices may gradually rise [4][5]. - Aluminum: As of June 20, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 2.3% to $2,561.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 449,000 tons as of June 19, with a decrease of 11,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels are decreasing. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with no immediate expectations for new projects. The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, leading to a downward trend in aluminum ingot inventory. In the medium term, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, supporting a positive outlook for aluminum prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 5,262.3 points, down 3.0% from the previous period. The precious metal index closed at 18,255.64 points, down 5.3%, while the industrial metal index closed at 1,925.73 points, down 3.2%. The energy metal index closed at 1,521.54 points, down 2.9%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45% [9]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain a strong trend due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [3][6]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum inventories are low, with expectations for price increases due to supply-demand dynamics [4][5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining. For aluminum, the recommendation is to consider Tianshan Aluminum [6][70].

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing unprecedented growth due to increasing investor demand for asset allocation, with approximately 1,200 ETF products and a net inflow of about 250 billion yuan this year, with nearly 40% of products showing positive net inflows [2][3] - Gold ETFs have emerged as a new favorite in the capital market, driven by their unique hedging properties and investment value, amidst a global surge in gold purchases by central banks [2][5] ETF Market Expansion - The ETF market has seen a significant influx of funds, with a total net inflow of approximately 250 billion yuan as of June 12, 2023, and nearly 40% of products recording positive net inflows [3] - There are 92 ETF products with net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan this year, with over 40 products attracting more than 3 billion yuan and 30 products over 5 billion yuan [3] - Notably, 14 ETF products have raised over 10 billion yuan within a year, indicating strong capital attraction among leading products [3] Leading ETF Products - The top-performing ETF is the Huaxia CSI 300 ETF, which has seen a net inflow exceeding 30 billion yuan this year, with its total scale growing from 37.7 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to over 160 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [4] - Other notable ETFs include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and Haitong CSI Short Bond ETF, both with net inflows exceeding 17 billion yuan this year [4] Gold ETF Performance - Gold ETFs, particularly the Huaan Gold ETF, have shown remarkable performance, with a net inflow of approximately 23 billion yuan this year and a return exceeding 25% [5] - The total scale of Huaan Gold ETF has surpassed 60 billion yuan, reflecting a steady growth trend from 9.7 billion yuan at the end of 2022 to 28.7 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [5] - Other gold ETFs, such as Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, have also performed well, with net inflows of 9.5 billion yuan, 9.4 billion yuan, and 9.1 billion yuan respectively this year [5] Central Bank Gold Purchases - A global "gold buying spree" has emerged, with central banks purchasing a net total of 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, marking the third consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons [7] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching 7.383 million ounces by the end of May [7] - Analysts suggest that central bank demand for gold may become a long-term trend, particularly in the context of weakening dollar credit and rising risks of de-globalization [7]

Group 1 - The core CPI in the US for May increased by only 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, while the annual CPI recorded 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5% [1] - The lower-than-expected inflation data has boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a short-term spike in gold prices, which broke above 3360 [1] - The COMEX gold price rose by 127.8 USD to 3376.10 USD per ounce since early May, supported by increased demand from central banks and investors [1] Group 2 - The aluminum industry faces limited supply elasticity due to a production cap of 45 million tons and policy constraints, while demand is driven by the new energy and home appliance sectors [1] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a recovery in demand due to policy adjustments and new application scenarios, such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, leveraging China's global advantages in production and technology [1]