1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global liquidity environment will maintain a loose tone, with marginal adjustments in the pace and amplitude. China's macro - policies will remain positive, with fiscal support for "two major" construction and "new - quality productivity" and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. - The industrial capacity cycle has bottomed out, and there are signs of a turning point. In 2026, the capacity utilization rate is expected to stabilize in the first half and rise marginally in the second half [23]. - The inventory cycle is approaching its end, with domestic and overseas "de - stocking" showing signs of bottoming out [29]. - In 2026, the commodity market is expected to stabilize at the bottom and gradually shift to a "slow - bull" market. The Minsky Clock is likely to transition from "weak recovery" to "early re - inflation," benefiting stocks and commodities [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Outlook - The global liquidity environment in 2026 will maintain a loose tone, and China's macro - policies will continue to be positive, with fiscal support for key areas and moderately loose monetary policies [17]. 3.2 Capacity Cycle - The industrial capacity utilization rate bottomed out in Q2 2025, and the PPI has been narrowing its year - on - year decline since June 2025. In 2026, it may form the initial stage of a positive cycle [23]. 3.3 Inventory Cycle - The year - on - year growth rate of finished - product inventory has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating the end of the current inventory cycle. The US wholesalers' inventory has been decreasing since Q2, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has become less sensitive [29]. 3.4 Commodity Market Outlook - In 2026, the commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance and stabilization, and structural differentiation." It may show wide - range fluctuations in the first half and a mild recovery in the second half if policies are effective [30]. 3.5 Sector and Variety Allocation Outlook 3.5.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market but with increased volatility. The gold - silver ratio may decline periodically [35]. 3.5.2 From AI to New and Old Energy Transition - AI's computing power demand drives the entire new - energy industry chain, causing high resonance between the stock market and commodities. New - energy materials such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon may enter a new demand cycle, and there are investment opportunities in going long on copper and short on oil [42][57]. 3.5.3 Real Estate and Related Sectors - The real - estate industry is still in a downward cycle, putting pressure on the prices of black and building - material sectors. The divergence between copper and rebar reflects the economic transformation [62]. 3.5.4 Black and Energy - Chemical Sectors - In the black sector, shorting iron ore may be cost - effective. In the energy - chemical sector, most chemicals except crude oil face supply pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [68]. 3.5.5 Agricultural Products - Livestock Sector - If the "anti - involution" policy promotes the reduction of livestock production capacity in the first half, pork and eggs may be worth long - allocation in the second half, while the fundamentals of beans may weaken [74]. 3.6 Allocation Strategy - Industrial product hedging can focus on the theme of "AI and computing power driving the acceleration of new - and old - energy transformation." Agricultural products will continue to show differentiation, with grains and oils relatively resistant to decline and livestock products potentially having a low - then - high trend [80][81]. - New - energy varieties (e.g., lithium carbonate) have demand support and profit - repair potential. Non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper) have valuation - increasing potential. Energy - chemical products are under pressure, and black products are affected by real - estate demand [82].

来源：中保新知 今天，是2026年的首个工作日，虽是一个新的起点，但人生的脚本和生活的琐事不会因此变一种形式存 在，该干的还需要继续干，该应对的一切照旧。比如，寿险行业热销的分红险，依旧在我行我销。在这 辞旧迎新的工作日，中保新知做一期跨年策划"寄语2026分红险"，既展望未来，更反思过往。 2025年的寿险营销浪潮已过，有一种如梦如幻的跌宕，也有一种如堕烟海的模糊，这股迷雾从何处来， 往何处去？ 现如今的寿险营销，起于2024年四季度的分红险转型，2025年愈演愈热，整个行业都在千方百计地树立 对于"分红预期"的信心，一年到头真是万千感受在心头。 探讨营销理念 2024年"9·24"行情后A股的一波"政策性牛市"持续延续，一直到了2025年10月28日盘中沪指迎来历史上 第三次4000点时刻，让我们对于资本市场的未来预期建立起信心；2025年春节DeepSeek横空出世，再 加春晚跳舞机器人——宇树科技的声名鹊起，让大众逐渐感受到中国科技的蓬勃力量；更有创造中国影 史票房纪录的《哪吒之魔童闹海》，让人们看到了中国文创"一路踏平荆棘，闯风沙万里"的雄浑气魄。 不过，回归平凡的生活，似乎老百姓还是对于经济下行期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the scale of macro - hedge strategies is expected to increase further as their allocation value is increasingly recognized in the market. Risk - parity strategies will play a stronger role as the base position in the portfolio, and the returns of risk - parity managers will experience a certain degree of mean reversion. [36][37] - The performance of subjective CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than that in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will benefit subjective CTA managers. [58] Summary by Directory 01 Macro - Hedge Strategy Research and Outlook Manager Classification and Characteristics - Macro - hedge managers are classified into three types: risk - parity, asset - rotation, and multi - asset multi - strategy. This report focuses on the first two types. Risk - parity managers use the risk - parity model as the basis and enhance it, with relatively consistent performance; asset - rotation managers are based on asset - rotation frameworks like the Merrill Lynch Clock, emphasizing asset timing allocation and having less consistent performance. [6] Domestic Manager Performance in 2025 - As of November 28, 2025, the net value of the "risk - parity" macro - hedge index was 1.172, and that of the "asset - rotation" index was 1.101. In the 46 weeks from January 3 to November 28, 2025, risk - parity managers had positive weekly returns in 30 weeks and negative returns in 16 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. Asset - rotation managers had positive weekly returns in 25 weeks and negative returns in 20 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring in the week of November 21. In the context of global supply - chain reshaping, risk - parity managers outperformed asset - rotation managers in 2025. [10] Asset Correlation Analysis - In 2025, the negative correlation between treasury bonds and equity indices weakened compared to the end of last year. The China Securities Commodity Index was positively correlated with stock indices and negatively correlated with treasury bonds and gold. Gold, as a safe - haven asset, had a stronger correlation with treasury bonds. There were significant differences in the performance correlations of risk - parity and asset - rotation managers with equity, treasury bonds, and gold. [13] - In terms of equity assets, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the CSI 300 was 0.230, and that with the CSI 1000 was 0.186. The correlations of the asset - rotation strategy with the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 were 0.628 and 0.641 respectively. The asset - rotation strategy's returns were more dependent on stocks, and the large drawdown in the week of November 21 was related to the stock decline. [19] - After a five - fold leverage treatment of 10 - year treasury bonds, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and 10 - year treasury bond futures was 0.221, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was - 0.068. Many managers believed that the treasury bond market was in a bear market, so asset - rotation managers mostly reduced or shorted treasury bonds, while risk - parity managers still held bond positions. [23] - In 2025, gold was one of the strongest - performing assets, with a cumulative net value of the Gold ETF of 1.588 from January 3 to November 28. The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the Gold ETF was 0.453, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.110. Gold had a greater impact on risk - parity strategies. [26] Overseas Manager Performance in 2025 - As of October 2025, the net value of the "unidentified" macro - hedge index was 1.088, the "subjective" macro - hedge index was 1.129, and the "quantitative" macro - hedge index was 1.159. Quantitative macro - hedge strategies performed the best, followed by subjective strategies, similar to the domestic situation. The maximum drawdowns of the unidentified and quantitative macro - hedge strategies occurred in April, indicating that domestic risk - parity managers may use similar underlying models to overseas ones. [29] - The unidentified macro - hedge strategy index had a more balanced correlation with various asset classes, with a near - zero correlation with New York gold. The subjective macro - hedge index had a high correlation of 0.792 with the S&P 500 and a negative correlation with New York gold, indicating that its returns were more dependent on the US stock market. The quantitative macro - hedge strategy also had a high correlation of 0.627 with the S&P 500 and a relatively high correlation of 0.300 with the S&P GSCI, but a negative correlation with US treasury bonds and gold. [33] Outlook for 2026 - The scale of macro - hedge strategies will increase as their allocation value is recognized. Some investors may replace part of their stock - neutral strategy allocation with low - volatility macro - hedge strategies. The role of risk - parity strategies as the base position in the portfolio will be enhanced, and their return attribution is relatively clear. [36] - The returns of risk - parity managers will experience mean reversion in 2026. Since the probability of bonds and gold replicating their price increases since 2024 is significantly reduced, the returns of these managers will decline. Historically, the long - term return of the basic risk - parity model is around 6 - 8%. [37] 02 Discretionary CTA Strategy Research and Outlook Performance in 2025 - The net value performance of managers in the observation pool in 2025 was weaker than in the same period of 2024. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade friction reduced the trading certainty of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial supply - demand research, weakening their position - holding confidence and return - generating ability. After June, although market sentiment improved, the lack of improvement in the industrial sector led to significant drawdowns for many managers, lowering the annual return. [40] Sector - Specific Performance - Black - sector managers showed some resilience in returns in 2025. In the first half of the year, the collapse of coal costs led to a downward trend in the black - sector prices, with good persistence and low volatility. The concerns about external demand due to Sino - US trade friction coincided with the seasonal decline in coal prices, providing trading opportunities with industrial and macro resonance. In the second half of the year, differences in the implementation of anti - involution policies led to a negative view among industrial - based managers, resulting in significant drawdowns. [45] - Agricultural - product managers were greatly affected by trade frictions between China and the US, Canada, etc. The unpredictable changes in agricultural - product imports and price fluctuations made it difficult for them to generate returns. [45] Industry Changes - Leading managers are iterating towards multi - asset and multi - strategy models. The limited capital capacity of single - asset futures trading, the need to understand the trading behavior of other market participants, and the benefits of multi - asset diversification are the main reasons. [50] - Start - up private - equity funds have shown strong drawdown - control ability since their establishment. Compared with the past, current start - up discretionary CTA private - equity funds have a clearer understanding of investors' risk preferences and a more explicit performance - oriented approach, enabling them to enter institutional investors' asset - allocation pools more quickly. [52] - In a diversified market structure, single - industry logic is insufficient for trading. Managers need to have comprehensive capabilities in macro - judgment, trading, and risk - control. Research determines the winning rate, trading and risk - control determine the profit - loss ratio, and an excellent trader may not be an excellent asset - management manager. [55] Outlook for 2026 - The performance of discretionary CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties will make commodity supply - demand the dominant factor in trading, and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will be beneficial for managers to generate returns. The increase in the scale of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial research will also contribute to the strength of industrial logic in the market. [58]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the performance and driving factors of gold and U.S. equities in the context of monetary policy and technological advancements, particularly AI technology Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit both U.S. equities and gold in the first half of 2026, while the second half will require monitoring of AI's impact on productivity and economic models [1][3] - **Historical Trends**: Historical data indicates a pattern where gold and U.S. equities tend to rise together during periods of monetary easing, but diverge during economic downturns, with gold typically showing more resilience [4][5] - **Driving Factors for Gold**: Key drivers for gold include real interest rates, U.S. dollar credibility, and geopolitical tensions. For U.S. equities, the main drivers are corporate earnings, risk appetite, and interest rate changes [2] - **AI Technology's Role**: Breakthroughs in AI technology could negatively impact gold by enhancing confidence in U.S. fiscal and dollar credibility, thus affecting its demand [2][3] Additional Important Content - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to focus on liquidity conditions resulting from the Fed's rate cuts, the development of AI technology, and its commercialization, as these factors will influence the competition between tech stocks and traditional safe-haven assets like gold [6][7] - **Market Volatility**: Increased global macroeconomic uncertainty may lead to significant market fluctuations, prompting investors to seize opportunities for asset accumulation and optimize their asset allocation strategies [1][7]

的资产占比上升到约15%，但这一比例仍远低于美国居民超过50%的水平。因此，随着居民储蓄逐步从 楼市向股市、基金转移，我国家庭资产配置结构预计将继续优化，配置在优质股票和优质基金上的资产 占比有望逐步提升，这将成为普通居民分享经济增长红利的一个重要渠道。资本市场上涨所带来的财富 效应，能让更多投资者持有"白龙马股"或优质公募基金份额，从而推动家庭资产总量的稳步提升，并进 一步支撑消费增长。这种由资产结构调整引发的正向循环，可能会成为未来几年经济与资本市场联动中 的一个关键变化点。 当前我国经济正处于由"出口+投资"拉动向"消费+科技"驱动的关键转型时期，消费对GDP增长的贡献度 持续上升，近两年甚至已经超过投资和出口贡献之和，因此提振消费被视为未来增长的重点方向。中央 经济工作会议预计将通过"提振消费专项行动"等方式，进一步稳定内需、推动物价温和上涨。11月CPI 同比上涨0.7%，实现由负转正，但距离2%左右的政策目标仍有明显差距，这意味着在扩大内需、推动 通胀回到合理区间方面政策仍需继续发力；一般认为3%以内的温和通胀是有利于经济增长和居民生活 改善的。今年以来，通过整治"内卷式竞争"、推进去产能以及纵深 ...

洞见数据研究院 以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 来源丨 表外表里（ID：excel-ers） 作者丨 杨晓庆 编辑丨 付晓玲 曹宾玲 图源丨泡泡玛特官方微博 泡泡玛特，正在上演 一场 惊心动魄的 "景气接力" 。 当人们观察 到A面， 北美 铺货 占比达 2/3 的 L abubu ，在 " 黑五 " 销量 走弱 ， 美国 本季度 销售增速 可能从 120 0% 降至 500% ， 便 推 断 L abubu会 过气 ， 超级景气周期即将 告终 。 然而却 忽视了B面，SP 系列审美逐渐"风格 漂移"。原来的暗黑系逐渐演变成甜美 风 ，去年 主打 温暖 陪伴 的 经典 "温度"系列，又卖火了 。 更重要的是，星星人的 爆发 势头， 也超越了 曾经的 L abubu ： 从搪胶玩偶推出到销售额逼近4 亿 大关， 花了近 2 年，而星星人 诞生 仅仅 6 个月，便达成这一里程碑。 这 AB 两面，反映了一个事实 ： L abubu 也许 会 过气，但泡泡玛特不会。 真正去理解情绪消费这门生意、了解泡泡玛特的爆款从何而来 、 如何 接力，会发现其 增长法则一 直很清晰 —— 在社会环境、 ...

一、美联储政策：内部分歧加剧，滞胀风险成为核心关切 2025年12月，中信保诚基金经理顾凡丁在投资者分享会中，围绕"美联储降息展望和黄金资产配置"展开 深度解读。会议从美联储政策的内部分歧、黄金的短中长期逻辑，到大宗商品在通胀周期中的配置框 架，层层剖析当前市场核心矛盾与资产布局机遇。以下为分享内容精编： 顾凡丁指出，近期市场对美联储降息的预期呈现"过山车"式波动，其背后是经济数据、政策博弈与政治 压力的多重碰撞： 二、黄金：短中长期逻辑共振，货币体系重塑支撑长期韧性 Q1：黄金情绪"过热"，短期如何把握时机？ 针对黄金创历史新高后的配置价值，顾凡丁从三个维度论证其认为黄金仍可能是资产组合中的"压舱 石"： 顾凡丁：短期波动可能放大，或采取"定投+关键事件策略"，在议息会议前后可以根据自身的风险承受 能力并结合自己的投资目的、投资期限、投资经验、资产状况分批布局。 三、大宗商品：通胀周期下的战略配置，三层框架精耕细作 Q2：黄金涨幅已高，性价比是否不如白银和有色金属？ 对于大宗商品的配置意义，顾凡丁提出"Why-When-How"三层分析框架： 注：如上内容仅用于展示基金经理的投资思路和当前市场研判，不作为投 ...

真正去理解情绪消费这门生意、了解泡泡玛特的爆款从何而来、如何接力，会发现其增长法则一直很清晰——在社会环境、人群思潮、经济背景的切换 中，捕捉大众情绪变化，并发掘、培育不同内核的IP回应每一轮周期。 文 | 表外表里 ，作者| 杨晓庆，编辑 | 付晓玲 曹宾玲 泡泡玛特，正在上演一场惊心动魄的"景气接力"。 当人们观察到A面，北美铺货占比达2/3的Labubu，在"黑五"销量走弱，美国本季度销售增速可能从1200%降至500%①，便推断Labubu会过气，超级景气 周期即将告终。 然而却忽视了B面，SP系列审美逐渐"风格漂移"。原来的暗黑系逐渐演变成甜美风，去年主打温暖陪伴的经典"温度"系列，又卖火了。 更重要的是，星星人的爆发势头，也超越了曾经的Labubu：从搪胶玩偶推出到销售额逼近4亿大关，花了近2年，而星星人诞生仅仅6个月，便达成这一里 程碑。 这AB两面，反映了一个事实：Labubu也许会过气，但泡泡玛特不会。 这种策略，跳出了迪士尼、漫威英雄以内容为IP长青基石的传统，开辟了以"可控的随机性"持续激活情绪消费的新路子。 Labubu热度褪去了，但"下一个Labubu"或许正在路上。 一、狙击主流情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that economic slowdown does not necessarily equate to a lack of investment opportunities in the stock market, highlighting historical instances where significant market rallies occurred during periods of economic challenges [3][4][14]. Group 1: Historical Market Performance - Historical data shows that major market uptrends in A-shares often occurred during economic slowdowns, such as from 1995 to 2001, 2013 to 2015, and 2019 to 2021, indicating a disconnect between economic growth rates and stock market performance [6][15]. - The A-share market has shown a strong recovery since late September 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding from low levels and achieving new highs, supported by favorable policies [3][4][14]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Recent policy measures aimed at boosting the capital market include encouraging long-term funds to enter the market and promoting consumer confidence, which are expected to enhance market vitality [4][14]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, driven by policy support rather than solely economic growth [4][14]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Trends - The article identifies two significant structural changes in China: aging population and declining birth rates, which are creating new investment opportunities, particularly in healthcare and technology sectors [5][15][16]. - The healthcare sector is highlighted as having strong demand due to the prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly, with policies encouraging the development of health insurance products for this demographic [16]. Group 4: Market Segmentation and Investment Strategies - Different market segments are expected to perform variably based on fundamentals, policies, and investor preferences, with some previously popular sectors likely to experience only moderate growth in the current market phase [8][17]. - Investment strategies should consider asset allocation models like the "Merrill Lynch Clock," adjusting portfolios according to economic phases, and employing dollar-cost averaging as a method to manage market volatility [17].

（原标题：章俊把脉2026：中国资产配置迎加减乘除新逻辑） 21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 北京报道 "站在'十四五'收官、'十五五'开局之年，我们认为变局中正孕育着新的飞跃。"11月26日，在北京举行 的中国银河证券2026年度策略报告会上，该公司首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊在以"变局·飞跃" 为主 题的演讲中，为现场投资者勾勒出未来宏观图景。 他指出，中国正身处"两个变局、一个飞跃"的宏大叙事——全球百年未有之大变局，国内从土地财政全 面转向新质生产力的转型变局，以及以人工智能为核心的科技飞跃。 在这承上启下的关键时点，章俊系统阐述了其"ReNew"分析框架，并指出在以"加减乘除"为脉络的"新 阶段供给侧结构性改革"推动下，中国资本市场将告别传统周期思维，依据全新的"银河指南针"迎来历 史性重估机遇。 "全球经济命运的齿轮正在转动，其长期背景是'3D挑战'，即人口老龄化、债务危机和逆全球化。"章俊 在分析全球宏观背景时，描绘了一幅从长期到近期的连锁图景。 他指出，"3D挑战"近期集中表现为"美国政治转向、中国经济转型、全球科技飞跃"这三重拐点。 在此复杂背景下，政府与市场的关系需要被重新定义。章俊引用了2 ...