010 -8092 -7696 yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn S0130522030004 2025 -08 -20 2025 -08 -06 2025 -07 -31 8 + 2025 -07 -31 7 9 2025 -07 -30 7 A 2025 -07 -22 2025 -07 -16 A 2025 -07 -15 2025 A 2025 -06 -26 2025 2025 -06 -22 2025 2025 -06 -21 2025 A 2025 -06 -10: 2025 -05 -29 2025 -05 -21 2025 -05 -12 2025 -05 -08 5 2025 -05 -07 2025 -05 -05 2025 -05 -04 ⚫ 9 10 ⚫ OPEC+ ⚫⚫⚫⚫ 策略研究 ·全球大类资产配置观察 中国银河证券|CGS 目录 Catalog | 一、 全球大类资产表现… | | --- | | 二、 大宗商品 | | (一) 黄金市场 . | | (二) 原油市场 . | | 三、 债券市场… | | (一) 美债收益率 | | (二) 中债收益 ...

美联储货币政策的潜在影响 美联储主席鲍威尔在 8 月 22 日的杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储 仍可能在未来数月降息。这一表态引发了市场的强烈反应，交易员在其讲话后增加了对美联储降息幅度的押注，互换市 场预计美联储年末前将有近 100 个基点的降息幅度。下周，市场将继续密切关注美联储官员的讲话以及相关政策动态。 千里马常有，而伯乐不常有，人生最快意的三件事莫过于：棋逢对手，酒逢知己，将遇良才！实力打造精典，成功绝非 偶然！佛渡有缘人，我渡有心人！【更多行情资讯敬请关注"钟亿金"】 展望下周（2025 年 8 月 26 日至 8 月 30 日）的黄金市场行情，众多复杂且相互交织的因素将对其走势产生关键影响，这 些因素涵盖地缘政治、经济数据与货币政策以及市场供需结构等多个层面。 地缘政治局势方面：中东局势紧张或成黄金上行支撑 当前，中东地区的地缘政治局势依旧处于高度紧张的状态。巴以冲突虽未出现大规模的军事行动升级，但加沙地带的人 道主义危机持续发酵，当地的医疗系统濒临崩溃，民众急需食品、药品和基本生活物资的援助。与此同时，以色列与黎 巴嫩真主党之间的边境局势也一触即发， ...

新华社华盛顿8月22日电（新华社记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍 尔举行的年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降 息。 鲍威尔当天表示，短期内美国通胀风险偏向上行，而美国就业下行风险正在上升，基于经济前景和风险 平衡的变化，美联储货币政策立场可能需要调整。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，鲍威尔发表讲话后，市场对美联储9月份降息预期升至近 90%。不少机构也将鲍威尔的讲话解读为鸽派信号。 大山资本公司董事长托马斯·海斯认为，鲍威尔的表态比预期更为鸽派，"他为9月份的行动奠定了基 础"。 但鲍威尔同时强调，货币政策没有预设路径，联邦公开市场委员会成员将完全基于对数据的评估，以及 这些数据对经济前景和风险平衡的影响来作出决策。这意味着8月非农就业和消费者价格指数数据将成 为9月货币政策的关键变量。 美国总统特朗普此前多次施压鲍威尔降息。他22日接受媒体采访回应鲍威尔讲话时称，不存在通胀风 险，美联储应该立即降息，"现在发出降息信号已经太晚"。他多次表达对美联储货币政策不满，要求美 联储官员辞职。 鲍威尔发表讲话后，纽约股市三大股指22日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium serves as a significant platform for discussing global economic issues, influencing market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate adjustments and inflation outlooks [1][6][19]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Insights - The symposium is hosted annually by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and includes central bank governors, finance ministers, and academic and financial professionals [1][6]. - In the 2022 meeting, Fed Chair Powell adopted a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for aggressive rate hikes to combat high inflation, which subsequently led to a faster pace of U.S. interest rate increases [1][6]. - The 2023 meeting saw Powell indicating a more cautious approach, stating that the Fed would proceed carefully, which resulted in a halt to further rate increases [1][6][7]. Group 2: Powell's 2025 Speech Highlights - In his 2025 speech, Powell expressed a dovish outlook, suggesting that changes in economic prospects and risk balances may necessitate adjustments in the Fed's policy stance [2][8]. - He noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation might be relatively short-lived, indicating a potential for inflationary pressures to stabilize [2][10]. - Powell highlighted that while the labor market appears balanced, it is characterized by a significant slowdown in both labor supply and demand, increasing the risk of layoffs and rising unemployment [2][11]. Group 3: FOMC Long-Term Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy - The FOMC released a new statement modifying its long-term goals, removing references to the "zero lower bound" and emphasizing the use of all policy tools to achieve dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability [3][12]. - The statement shifted from a flexible average inflation targeting strategy back to a simpler inflation targeting approach, indicating a return to traditional inflation management [3][12][13]. - The FOMC's focus has now shifted to promoting "maximum employment," allowing for more flexibility in policy adjustments without being constrained by perceived employment gaps [3][12][13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The dovish tone from Powell increased the probability of a September rate cut, with market expectations reflecting an 84% chance of a rate reduction following the Jackson Hole meeting [5][19]. - Following the meeting, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.89%, the S&P 500 by 1.52%, and the Nasdaq by 1.88%, indicating positive market sentiment towards potential rate cuts [5][19]. - Key economic indicators, such as employment data and inflation expectations, remain critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions, with the Fed closely monitoring these metrics [4][14][20].

在全球金融市场联动性日益增强的背景下，美联储货币政策对A股市场的影响不容忽视。作为全球最重要的中央银行，美联储的政策调整不仅牵动全球资本 流动，更通过多重渠道传导至中国资本市场。下面由湖南金证的小编为大家介绍下。 从历史数据来看，美联储加息周期往往会对A股市场形成阶段性冲击。这种影响主要通过三个渠道实现：首先，美元走强导致人民币汇率承压，可能引发外 资阶段性流出；其次，全球无风险利率上升会降低权益资产的相对吸引力；最后，货币政策收紧可能抑制全球经济增速，影响中国企业出口表现。2022年的 市场表现就是典型案例，在美联储激进加息背景下，北向资金曾出现持续净流出，对A股市场形成明显压力。 咨询机构的专业团队可以为投资者提供更广阔的投资视野和更多的选择空间。湖南金证深耕金融行业二十余年，始终坚持科学提质发展、专业特色发展、团 结和谐发展、合规持续发展、合作共赢发展的经营方针为客户提供投资咨询。 随着资本市场改革开放持续推进，A股市场的独立性有望进一步增强。但全球金融市场的联动效应仍将存在，理性投资者需要既关注内部因素，又密切跟踪 美联储政策动向，在把握机遇的同时做好风险管理。 不过值得注意的是，A股市场的运行逻辑仍 ...

特朗普社交平台上表示，鲍威尔"现在发出降息信号已经太晚了"。 当地时间8月22日，美国总统特朗普向媒体表示，如果美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）不主动辞职，他将 动用权力将其解职。这一表态再度升级了白宫对美联储的施压力度。 "她做得很糟糕，"特朗普向记者表示，"如果她不辞职，我就会解雇她。近期，库克因其持有抵押贷款 存在资质问题而受到特朗普政府的抨击。 同一天，库克在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔参加美联储年度研讨会时被问及此事，她表示，除了之前的声 明外，没有进一步的评论。 库克于周三发表声明称，不会"被胁迫辞职"。 美国参议院银行委员会成员、民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦周五在社交媒体上发文称，特朗普之所以把 库克作为目标，是因为他"试图为自己未能降低美国人的成本寻找替罪羊"。 随着特朗普对美联储货币政策的不满不断累积，其抨击矛头从利率政策，扩展至美联储总部大楼翻修项 目的巨额超支，和对美联储主席和公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的攻击。 当天，在鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔央行年会上暗示9月可能降息后，特朗普再次公开表达不满。他在社交平 台上表示："鲍威尔一年前就应该降息了，现在发出降息信号已经太晚了。" 市场分析认为，如 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚10点在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话。当前，美联储正 面临美国纵容特朗普前所未有的政治压力，但喜忧参半的经济数据可能迫使鲍威尔采取折中立场，导致 关键问题悬而未决。 在特朗普的施压下，投资者也对美联储下月降息充满期待。此前两位美联储理事已在最近一次政策会议 上推动降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软速度可能快于整体就业数据显示的情况。 然而，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且随着特朗普进口关税成本传导至零售价格，通胀预期可能进 一步上升。部分政策制定者认为，这种价格调整过程可能持续到明年，因此在此时降息需谨慎。 不过，波森认为降息可能是为就业市场提供"保险"，"部分原因是为了在政治上争取时间，因为如果不 降息，局势将更加紧张。但他们不会明说。" 特朗普的政治施压 随着特朗普的言行日益被视为对美联储独立性的威胁，鲍威尔和美联储所处的政治环境已成为降息叙事 中的重要组成部分——几乎任何决策都被解读为向特朗普妥协或无理对抗，而非基于事实的风险平衡。 特朗普对鲍威尔发起了猛烈的人身攻击，并要求其辞职。其政府内部有人以美联储大楼翻修成本超支为 由，鼓动"解雇"鲍威尔。但根据法律，美联储主席和 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Justice is planning to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with a senior official urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that inflation remains high and on an upward trend, indicating no reason for a rate cut if a meeting were held tomorrow [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but the labor market's direction is concerning and warrants close monitoring [1] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that while some recent inflation data shows signs of easing, a surprising surge in service prices poses a "danger signal" [3] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in September, while a 75% probability exists for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The global central bank annual meeting commenced in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with market participants closely watching Fed Chair Powell's speech for insights on future monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The U.S. reported an increase in the August composite PMI to 55.4, the highest in eight months, while initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May [4] - The market is experiencing mixed signals due to the conflicting economic data, contributing to fluctuations in trading [4] Group 4 - The current outlook for gold remains bearish, with expectations of further declines towards key support levels [6] - The market is observing resistance at the 3350 area, with potential downward movements if this level is not sustained [8] - Key support levels are identified at 3325-20, with further critical support at 3300 and 3280 [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with gold futures for December 2025 closing at $3,382.90 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.17% [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole annual symposium, which is expected to provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy framework and potential interest rate cuts in September [1] - The minutes from the Fed's July meeting indicate that most officials believe inflation risks outweigh concerns about the U.S. labor market, with trade tariffs exacerbating internal divisions within the Fed [1] Group 2 - Silver futures for September delivery closed at $38.08 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.81% [2] - Swiss gold exports to the U.S. surged to nearly 51 tons in July, the highest level since March, with over $36 billion in gold exports accounting for more than two-thirds of Switzerland's trade surplus with the U.S. in the first quarter [1] - Market analysts suggest that disappointing economic data continues to support expectations for the Fed to restart its easing cycle in September, which is likely to bolster gold prices in the near term [1]

美股三大指数均小幅收跌，标普500指数跌0.4%，道指跌0.34%，纳指跌0.34%。 大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉、Meta跌超1%，苹果、微软、英伟达、奈飞、亚马逊、AMD、英特尔小幅下跌；谷歌小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.35%。 小鹏汽车涨近12%，蔚来涨超9%，向上融科、名创优品涨逾6%，爱奇艺、小 牛电动涨逾2%；阿特斯太阳能跌逾18%，禾赛跌11%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%，晶科能源跌逾4%，大全新能源、阿里巴巴跌超1%。 01 美股静待鲍威尔讲话 当前市场正高度关注美联储未来的货 币政策走向。在一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会召开前夕， 华尔街交易员正大举押注美联储将在9 月大幅降息50个基点。 数据显示，押注9月降息50基点的期权合约高达32.5万份，权利金成本约1000万美元，若美联储如期降息50基点，这些头寸将获利高达1亿 美元。 Harris Financial Group管理合伙人James Cox表示："投资者似乎在为杰克逊霍尔提前避险，担心鲍威尔的表态会比目前市场预期更为'鹰 派'。" BMO资本市场美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen在报告中表示："随着市场 ...