1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 31, 2026. Index futures are expected to be weakly volatile, while lithium carbonate, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polypropylene, styrene, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to be strongly volatile [1][2]. - The report also analyzes the impact of macro - news and market conditions on the futures market, such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Fed's interest - rate policies, and domestic and international economic policies [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - On March 30, 2026, the A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the non - ferrous metal sector surging and power stocks slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index hit a new low since early April last year [14]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed on March 30, 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.73%. European three major stock indexes closed up across the board [15]. 3.2 Macro - news - The G7 energy ministers, finance ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East situation on the energy market, global economy, and financial stability, and were prepared to take coordinated actions if necessary [9]. - The U.S. and Iran's negotiation progress was volatile, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and policy uncertainties increased, which affected the market sentiment [15]. 3.3 Futures Contracts Analysis 3.3.1 Index Futures - On March 30, 2026, the four major index futures contracts (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) generally showed a weakly volatile trend. In March 2026, they are expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, they are likely to continue this trend [11][12][13][15][16]. 3.3.2 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures: On March 30, 2026, the gold futures main contract AU2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [30]. - Silver futures: On March 30, 2026, the silver futures main contract AG2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [38]. 3.3.3 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures: On March 30, 2026, the copper futures main contract CU2605 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be weakly volatile [42]. - Aluminum futures: On March 30, 2026, the aluminum futures main contract AL2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [46]. - Tin futures: On March 30, 2026, the tin futures main contract SN2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [51]. 3.3.4 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the crude oil futures main contract SC2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [85]. - Fuel oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the fuel oil futures main contract FU2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [90]. - Asphalt futures: On March 30, 2026, the asphalt futures main contract BU2606 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [94]. - Polypropylene, linear low - density polyethylene, PTA, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, etc.: These futures contracts have different trends on March 30, 2026, and are generally expected to be strongly volatile in March 2026 and have corresponding trends on March 31, 2026 [99][103][112][117][121][126]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Futures - Palm oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the palm oil futures main contract P2605 oscillated upward. On March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the rhythm of the precious metals market. Geopolitical event - driven impacts may gradually weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy corrections and fundamentals [1][149]. - The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations in Q2 and gradually recover previous losses. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. However, more data such as the recovery of Fed rate - cut expectations or the acceleration of central bank gold purchases are needed to support the upward drive, and this time window may appear in the second half of Q2 or Q3 [2][150]. - Gold has strong support at $4100 - 4400 per ounce in Q2, with resistance at $5000; silver has strong support at $60 - 65 per ounce, with resistance at $100 [2][150]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Review 3.1.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, precious metal prices fluctuated sharply, showing a pattern of rising and then falling. The SHFE Shanghai Gold Index reached a peak of 1260.15 yuan/gram on January 29, and as of March 20, it closed at 1042.5 yuan/gram, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 253.53 yuan/gram and a quarterly increase of 6.4%. The SHFE Shanghai Silver Index reached a peak of 31573 yuan/kg on January 30, and as of March 20, it closed at 17626 yuan/kg, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 15455 yuan/kg and a quarterly increase of 3.2% [6][7]. - The London gold - to - silver ratio widened slightly from around 60 at the end of last year to 63. In January, the domestic silver price had a significant premium over the London price, and the spot price had a significant premium over the futures price, but this situation reversed in February [7]. 3.1.2 Influence Factor Analysis - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market showed an extremely volatile pattern, with the core drivers centered around geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy expectations. In early Q1, multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy expectations, and supply - demand imbalances drove the rise of precious metal prices. In late January, the nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman and the tightening of market liquidity led to a peak - to - trough decline in prices. In February, geopolitical conflicts, policy expectation differentiation, and tariff policy uncertainties drove the prices to rise in oscillations. In March, the market was extremely volatile, first falling sharply due to negative factors and then rebounding rapidly [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Rise - Fall Period Analysis - Since 2026, the rise of precious metal prices has mainly concentrated in the early Asian trading session, while the European and American trading sessions have shown a downward trend. The inflow and outflow of funds from US and Chinese gold ETFs are closely related to price trends. The decline in precious metal prices is mainly driven by the European and American markets, and the key to the price recovery lies in the return of investment demand in the European and American markets and the shift of monetary policy expectations from rate hikes to rate cuts [29][30]. 3.2 Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Precious Metal Prices 3.2.1 Core Events in the Middle East Geopolitical Situation in Q1 - In Q1, the Middle East geopolitical situation gradually escalated and was in a state of repeated tug - of - war. Key events included Iran's enhanced control of the Strait of Hormuz, the escalation of the US - Iran standoff, and the assassination of Iran's supreme leader. These events led to fluctuations in energy prices, changes in Fed policy expectations, and significant impacts on precious metal prices [38][39][40]. 3.2.2 Impact Analysis of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - **Disappearance of Safe - Haven Benefits**: The rise in the Middle East geopolitical situation in March did not lead to an increase in precious metal prices. This may be due to the fact that the safe - haven sentiment had been reflected in January, and in March, factors such as energy shocks, the dominance of the US dollar's safe - haven status, and liquidity management led to the suppression of precious metal prices [43][57][59]. - **Short - Term Hawkish Disturbance in Monetary Policy Does Not Change the Medium - Term Loose Tone**: Although the Fed's monetary policy expectations have shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, considering the US economic situation, the dovish signal released by the Fed's March FOMC meeting, the short - term nature of geopolitical impacts, and the political factors, the Fed is more likely to cut rates in the medium term [76][82][91]. - **High Inflation Reality but Controllable Inflation Expectations**: Although the Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up inflation, the market's expectations for a full - blown stagflation are relatively low, and the inflation expectations are still under control, so the positive impact on gold prices has not been effectively transmitted [94][95][96]. - **Damage to the Long - Term Credit of the US Dollar**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is eroding the long - term credit foundation of the US dollar from multiple dimensions, promoting the diversification of the international monetary system and providing long - term strategic support for gold [100][101]. 3.2.3 Outlook for the Impact of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - In Q2 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation may evolve in three paths: a baseline scenario (65% probability) with limited US ground intervention and a "cold confrontation" pattern; a high - risk scenario (20% probability) with a full - scale conflict escalation; and a low - probability scenario (15% probability) with a rapid cooling of the conflict. Different scenarios will have different impacts on precious metal prices [102][103][105]. 3.3 Precious Metals Research Framework: Central Bank Gold Purchases are the Key to Support, and Investment Demand is the Core Driver 3.3.1 Gold Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - Gold supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, investment demand accounts for the largest proportion and has a large volatility, followed by central bank gold purchases. Gold ETF investment is the core driver of the medium - term trend of gold prices, while jewelry demand and central bank gold purchases play a role in constraining and buffering [109][110][111]. - Since 2026, global gold ETFs have flowed out after an inflow in January, and the central bank's gold - purchasing rhythm has slowed down. However, the long - term logic of central bank gold purchases has not changed, and the 4300 area may be an important support level for central bank gold purchases [117][121][125]. 3.3.2 Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, silver prices showed characteristics of high volatility, internal and external differentiation, and a combination of supply - demand gaps and macro - cycles. The global silver supply - demand gap is expected to continue in 2026, providing long - term support for prices. However, the silver market may face delivery squeeze risks, especially in the CME market [128][129][138]. 3.4 Market Outlook 3.4.1 Q2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the precious metals market. Geopolitical impacts may weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy and fundamentals. The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations and then rise, but more data support is needed [149][150]. 3.4.2 Strategies and Risks - In the short term, interval trading or low - buying layout is recommended, with strict control of positions and stop - losses. In the long term, focus on central bank gold purchases, the de - dollarization trend, and monetary policy rate - cut expectations, and buy gold at low prices during oscillations, with silver as an elastic auxiliary configuration [3][151]. - Risks include a full - scale escalation of geopolitical conflicts leading to a liquidity crisis, a continuous shift back of Fed rate - cut expectations, a general decline in assets due to liquidity panic, a slowdown in central bank gold - purchasing rhythm, or weak industrial demand for silver [5][152].

Core Views - The A-share market is showing resilience with a clear structural differentiation, indicating that the index may experience fluctuations in the short term while consolidating support [2][10] - The external influences on the A-share market are diminishing, with the market's own recovery momentum taking precedence [3][12] - The market is characterized by a "hot and cold" sector performance, with strong movements in innovative pharmaceuticals and agriculture, while previously popular sectors like green electricity are retreating [12][10] Market Overview - On Monday, the three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing strength [5][10] - The trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential slowdown in the influx of new capital [12][10] - The overall sentiment in the market is moderate, with a general trend of more stocks rising than falling [6] Sector Analysis - Agricultural stocks, particularly in grain and farming, have seen an increase due to stabilizing domestic grain prices and rising overseas prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [7][10] - Aerospace and military stocks are performing well, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the emphasis on "self-control" in key technologies, which enhances the competitive landscape for domestic military enterprises [8][10] - The industrial and precious metals sectors are recovering, supported by ongoing economic growth policies and improving supply-demand dynamics [9][10] Investment Opportunities - Focus on companies that have been unjustly punished but can validate their growth logic through Q1 performance, as these firms are better positioned to withstand market volatility [3][12] - The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by China's diversified energy structure and stable growth policies [13][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's policy, Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver prices are influenced by factors like the Fed's stance and geopolitical tensions. Suggest waiting for price dips to buy gold and closing out short silver positions [1]. - In the base metals market, copper is under pressure, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, and other metals have their own supply - demand characteristics and corresponding trading strategies [1][2]. - In the black industry, steel products and iron ore markets are in a state of supply - demand balance with certain structural contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their characteristics [5]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, and the supply - demand relationship and prices are in a state of change. Different trading strategies are put forward for different products [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices rose 0.45% to $4513.52 per ounce, domestic gold prices showed different trends, and international silver prices rose 0.72% to $70.065 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Powell's dovish stance, geopolitical tensions, and changes in inventory and ETF positions [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for price dips to buy gold, and close out short silver positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices were volatile and weak [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed's dovish signal, Middle - East conflicts, and tight supply of copper ore and blister copper [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum contract price rose 3.30% to 24725 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips as the price is expected to be volatile and strong [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina contract price rose 0.38% to 2941 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable production capacity and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, focus on Guinea's mining policy [2]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc and lead prices showed different changes, and inventory decreased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For lead, inventory is decreasing, but there are multiple factors affecting the price; for zinc, there are mine - end disturbances and strong demand from smelters [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, buy on dips if inventory continues to decrease; for zinc, wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract decreased, and trading volume increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable opening furnace quantity, expected increase in production, and different trends in downstream demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible measures, and expect the price to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 yuan [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract rose, and inventory increased slightly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply disturbances and improving demand, with expected supply gaps in the future [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract rose, and trading volume increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable production, narrowing inventory increase, and weak downstream demand [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, focus on downstream procurement and order prices [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices were volatile and strong [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed's dovish signal, Middle - East conflicts, and concerns about production resumption [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract rose [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Decreasing inventory, improving demand, and limited production increase space [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, be cautious about holding short positions [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract rose [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Changes in arrival and shipment, stable supply - demand, and high inventory [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of the main contract fell [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable iron - making production, unimplemented price increase, and high inventory in some links [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, be cautious about holding short positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans changed little [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Loose supply in the near - term and expected production expansion in the long - term, strong domestic crushing demand [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to production and crude oil prices [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures and spot prices fell [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Slow grain - selling progress, increased policy wheat auction, and expected price adjustment [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to be volatile and weak [5]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE cotton futures rose, and domestic cotton futures were strong [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Good export data and expected planting area data, cautious procurement by spinning enterprises [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15300 - 15700 yuan per ton [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Lower - than - expected production increase and good export data [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to be strong in the short - term, follow crude oil and bio - diesel expectations [5]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures and spot prices fell [5]. - **Fundamentals**: End of holiday stocking, high inventory, and expected seasonal price decline [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to be volatile and weak [5]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices rose slightly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: High supply and low demand in the off - season, and pessimistic expectations from farmers [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to be weak [5]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract price fell slightly, with a weak basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Reduced domestic supply due to geopolitical conflicts, and improving demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil in the short - term, and short on rallies in the long - term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The price was volatile, and the contract price fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Different production trends of different production methods, and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy the 09 contract and sell the 01 contract [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices showed different trends [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Multiple plant maintenance plans, and different inventory trends of PX and PTA [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long PX positions, and wait and see for PTA [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The contract price rose [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Reduced supply, falling inventory, and weak downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do a positive spread [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract price fell slightly, with a weak basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Reduced supply due to geopolitical conflicts, and improving demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil in the short - term, and short on rallies in the long - term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price was stable, with a zero basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Reduced domestic and overseas supply, high inventory, and improving polyester factory profit [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, but be aware of price reversals [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical conflicts leading to reduced Middle - East oil exports and potential supply shortages [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be aware of price fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract price rebounded slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Reduced inventory of pure benzene and styrene, and improving downstream demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil in the short - term, and expect weaker supply - demand in the long - term [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The contract price fell [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Expected supply recovery, high inventory, and weak demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short after price rebounds [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bullish rating on precious metal futures [1] Core Viewpoints - Due to the ongoing intense and stalemated conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, along with large - scale protests in the US against the Trump administration, global stock markets have fallen significantly, and risk - aversion sentiment has re - heated. This has increased the short - term bullish momentum for gold, while the bullish momentum for silver has weakened, and it mainly follows gold passively. In the medium term, the precious metal market may still be in a wide - range oscillation pattern until the policy of the new Federal Reserve chairman becomes clearer [1] Directory Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - The US - Israel - Iran conflict remains intense and stalemated. Iran has increased its attacks on the US and Israel, and Tehran has been more frequently and severely bombed. There are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US, with over 900,000 people expected to participate in 3,100 protests across 50 states. Global stock markets have fallen, and risk - aversion sentiment has re - heated, increasing the short - term bullish momentum for gold [1] 2. Factors to Consider - The factors to consider include Middle - East geopolitical games, US economic data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations [2] 3. Futures Market Review - The report presents charts of gold and silver futures' internal and external prices, as well as the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai gold and silver futures, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [3] 4. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report shows charts of the US dollar index and gold price, and US interest rates and gold price, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [7][9] 5. Macroeconomic Data - The report includes charts of US CPI inflation data, PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate and new non - farm employment, PMI, retail and personal disposable income, new private housing starts, and new housing sales, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [14][19][20] 6. Fund Holdings and Ratios - The report provides charts of silver and gold ETF total holdings, the holding ratios of gold and silver asset management institutions, and the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [23][26][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although there are short - term disturbances, they do not change the long - term bullish logic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 493.05, 491.10, and 489.35 respectively. The price changes are - 0.10, - 0.45, and 0.05, with price change rates of - 0.02%, - 0.09%, and 0.01%. The trading volumes are 5790, 157, and 77 respectively, and the open interests are all 13217 [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 358.20, 358.00, and 357.50 respectively. The price changes are - 0.05, - 0.10, and - 2.30, with price change rates of - 0.01%, - 0.03%, and - 0.64%. The trading volumes are 2838, 33, and 39 respectively, and the open interests are all 4662 [1] Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The previous closing price of Shanghai platinum was 477.04 yuan/gram, with a price change of - 7.51 and a price change rate of - 0.015%. The previous closing price of London platinum was 1849.00 US dollars/ounce, with a price change of - 20.00 and a price change rate of - 0.011%. The previous closing prices of Zhou Dafu platinum and Lao Fengxiang platinum were 728.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with price changes of - 32.00 and 0.00, and price change rates of - 0.042% and 0.000% [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The previous closing price of Chinese palladium was 342.00 yuan/gram, with a price change of - 9.00 and a price change rate of - 0.026%. The previous closing price of Russian palladium was 3579.34 rubles/gram, with a price change of - 207.26 and a price change rate of - 0.055% [1] Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 558,767.51 ounces, a decrease of 14985.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 312,340.38 ounces. The current trading volume on the Gold Exchange is 138.00 kilograms, an increase of 64.0 kilograms compared to the previous value, and the trading amount is 6,547.26 million yuan, an increase of 2947.0 million yuan compared to the previous value [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 248,373.69 ounces and 211,887.35 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.17, 6,368.85, 4.44, 20,948.36, 45,166.64, and 6.91 respectively. The changes compared to the previous values are 0.26, - 108.31, 0.02, - 459.72, - 793.47, and 0.01 respectively [1] - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the current prices are 995.18, 998.66, and 1001.20 respectively, with price increases of 2.22, 2.68, and 2.38 compared to the previous closing prices. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the current prices are 17558.00, 17489.00, and 17476.00 respectively, with price increases of 39, 17, and 12 compared to the previous closing prices [1] Macro News - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 each, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: US - Israeli military strikes on Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Chair Nomination**: US President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination, and there are uncertainties about the confirmation process and subsequent policy independence [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3] Comments and Strategies - **Market Performance**: As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs [4] - **Core Disturbances**: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, dragging down platinum and palladium. There are uncertainties in the nomination process and subsequent policy independence [4] - **Macro Factors**: The judicial investigation of Powell has shaken the US dollar's credit. The global central bank gold - buying wave continues, highlighting the reserve value of platinum and palladium. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains unchanged [4] - **Industry Factors**: There is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, with surging hydrogen energy demand and South African production capacity constraints. Palladium supply is rigid, and demand is supported by hybrid vehicle demand and strict emission policies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2. Core Viewpoints - The US economy in the second quarter is facing a very complex situation, with the weak real - economy and rising inflation posing challenges to the economic outlook [11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the second quarter [11] - The Iran - US war is likely to end in April, and inflation caused by the energy shock is temporary [11] - There is a trend of the US dollar index weakening in the second quarter [11] 3. Summary by Related Contents Economic Situation - The current US economic situation is complex. Although recent real - economy data has risen, the labor market shows signs of a trend of weakness, and it is expected to continue to deteriorate while the downward pressure on the real economy will increase [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation will rise significantly due to the energy shock, but this energy price increase is more of a one - time shock. Central bank monetary policy will remain relatively cautious, and there is no obvious expectation of expanding easing in the second quarter [5] Real Estate Market - The real estate market remains weak. Due to the energy shock, the credit spread has begun to rise, further pressuring the weak real estate market. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the real - estate market's chain reaction in the second quarter, especially the negative impact of the real - estate market's negative feedback on the credit spread under the pressure of private fund redemptions [8] Dollar Index - The market expects the forward interest - rate cut rhythm to be postponed, and inflation pressure will cause the Federal Reserve to maintain relatively high interest rates. The energy crisis is likely to be resolved in the second quarter. The US dollar index may weaken in the second quarter if the energy crisis does not continue [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The performance of non - ferrous metals is diverging. The Iran geopolitical situation dominates the capital market sentiment. The Fed's interest - rate decision and inflation expectations impact non - ferrous metals. China's post - holiday demand shows marginal improvement, but the future foreign trade situation is uncertain [12]. - High oil prices are constraining the Fed's monetary policy. There is an increasing risk of stagflation, causing risk assets to be sold off. Copper is affected by liquidity and market sentiment in the short - term but is more resilient than gold and silver. In the long - term, rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, and copper's price center is expected to rise [3][15]. - Geopolitical uncertainties affect zinc, aluminum, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless - steel prices. Each metal has its own supply - demand situation and price trends [5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The Iran geopolitical situation dominates the capital market. The Fed's non - interest - rate cut and inflation expectations bring pressure to non - ferrous metals. China's post - holiday demand shows marginal improvement, but foreign trade is uncertain. Energy cost increases support marginal costs, and demand orders are under observation [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Short - term price is under pressure but has long - term upward potential. Support is at 92000 - 93000 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. Recommend buying hedging in the far - month and using option strategies [3][4][15]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in consolidation. Support is at 22400 - 22600, and resistance is at 24000 - 24200. Pay attention to the continuation of the dollar's decline and downstream demand [5][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips. Alumina is recommended to wait and see or take a short - term bearish view. Recycled aluminum alloy is recommended to wait and see or take a short - term bullish view [6][17]. - **Tin**: Wait and see or take a short - term bullish view. Pay attention to capital sentiment, mine supply, and macro factors. Support is at 300000 - 320000, and resistance is at 380000 - 400000 [7][17]. - **Lead**: Prices are in a range. Support is at 16200 - 16400, and resistance is at 16800 - 17000. Pay attention to demand recovery and inventory changes [8][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by geopolitical uncertainties and Indonesian policies. They are recommended to buy on dips. Nickel's support is at 130000 - 132000, and resistance is at 140000 - 142000. Stainless - steel's support is at 13500 - 13600, and resistance is at 14500 - 15000 [9][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 95350 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and zinc closed at 23070 yuan/ton with a 0.59% change [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the net long - short position difference of industrial silicon (SI2605) is - 19417, with 2158 net long changes and - 3299 net short changes [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 95730 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22830 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Graphs related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, are presented [25][27][30][33][36][37][41][43][45][47][49]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Graphs related to the arbitrage of each metal, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread, are presented [51][54][56][60][62][64][65]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Graphs related to the options of each metal, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes, are presented [67][71][73][74].

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant reduction in financial attributes, with the marginal impact of Federal Reserve policies diminishing. Prices for gold and copper have entered a reasonable lower range [1][2][3]. Key Insights - **Copper Price Dynamics**: Copper prices are stable in the range of $11,000 to $12,000 per ton, with strong demand from downstream sectors. A shortage at the mining level supports supply rigidity [1][4]. - **Valuation Levels**: Leading companies in the sector are currently undervalued, with aluminum companies valued at less than 10 times earnings, copper companies around 12 times, and gold companies at approximately 14 times [1][4]. - **Lithium as a Preferred Commodity**: Lithium carbonate is highlighted as a top choice due to supply constraints from African mining policies, leading to a reduction of 100,000 to 150,000 tons, with inventory dropping below 100,000 tons [1][5]. - **Geopolitical Impact on Aluminum**: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has affected aluminum production, with the region accounting for about 10% of global capacity. High oil prices are raising production costs, providing a defensive attribute to the sector [1][6]. Investment Recommendations - **Core Stocks to Watch**: - Lithium: Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co. - Copper: Zijin Mining - Aluminum: China Hongqiao [1][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: - Focus on lithium if avoiding macroeconomic judgments, as the sector's stock prices are under pressure from negative feedback expectations regarding storage demand [5][6]. - If geopolitical tensions persist but do not escalate, consider investing in electrolytic aluminum due to supply risks [6]. - In a scenario of easing geopolitical tensions, prioritize investments in precious metals and copper, as current prices reflect pessimistic market expectations [6][7]. Risks and Considerations - **Potential Risks**: A shift in U.S. policy towards a "war promotes peace" strategy could lead to macroeconomic expectations fluctuating, potentially causing a final price drop in commodities [1][4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment is heavily influenced by fear, with discussions around interest rate hikes being more of a reaction than a likely outcome [2][3]. Additional Insights - **Long-term Value**: The narrative supporting copper and gold as long-term investment assets remains intact, with strategic metals gaining importance as supply chains shift from cost prioritization to security prioritization [2][3]. - **Performance Expectations**: The first quarter of 2026 is expected to show strong performance for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by higher average prices despite recent adjustments [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting current market conditions, investment opportunities, and associated risks.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Gold and Zinc Industry**: The records focus on the gold and zinc markets, highlighting significant changes in consumption patterns and price forecasts for both commodities. Key Insights on Gold Market - **Consumption Shift**: In 2025, China's gold consumption structure underwent a milestone change, with gold bars and coins consumption (501.238 tons, +35.14%) surpassing jewelry consumption (363.836 tons, -31.6%), indicating a shift from consumption to investment dominance in the market [4][1]. - **Price Forecast**: Short-term gold prices are expected to be pressured by delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a strong dollar, with COMEX gold prices projected to fluctuate between $4,200 and $5,200 per ounce. Long-term support is anticipated from U.S. debt expansion and strong global central bank gold purchases (700-850 tons annually) [6][1]. - **Production and Import Data**: In 2025, domestic gold production was 381.339 tons (+1.09%), and imported gold was 170.681 tons (+8.8%). Total consumption was 950.096 tons (-3.57%) [4][1]. Key Insights on Zinc Market - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The global refined zinc market is expected to face a surplus in 2026, with optimistic projections indicating a surplus of 240,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase by approximately 170,000 tons, primarily from the Wanyang project (+100,000 tons) and the Huoshaoyun project [1][9]. - **Price Trends**: Zinc prices are projected to decline, with expectations for Shanghai zinc prices to range between 21,000 and 25,000 RMB/ton in 2026. In April, prices are expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and demand pressures [2][19]. - **Downstream Consumption Changes**: The traditional drivers for zinc consumption are weakening, with the share of galvanized consumption expected to drop from 65% to 55% due to declining real estate investment and new construction [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Zinc Smelting Challenges**: The zinc smelting sector is facing dual pressures from high overseas electricity prices and low domestic processing fees (TC), with smelting profits heavily reliant on by-product sulfuric acid prices, which have increased by 23.46% year-to-date [1][11]. - **Market Inventory Levels**: As of March 2026, domestic zinc inventories are at 260,000 tons, with significant increases in London zinc inventories as well, indicating a potential oversupply situation [18][19]. - **Geopolitical and Economic Influences**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. monetary policy are influencing both gold and zinc prices, with expectations of continued volatility in the markets [6][8][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the gold and zinc markets, their current dynamics, and future outlooks.