1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures showing a significant decline. The central bank's Q2 2025 monetary policy implementation report released on August 16 emphasizes "detailed implementation" and "structure", indicating future structural easing policies in areas like inclusive small - and micro - enterprise financial services, financial support for technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion, but the expectation of comprehensive interest rate cuts has weakened. Also, the recent continuous rise in the stock market's risk appetite has led to funds flowing from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. In general, treasury bond futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On August 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with both the bid volume and winning volume being 266.5 billion yuan and the operating rate at 1.40%. There were 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan [4]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise this week, reaching new highs in both index points and average daily trading volume, with trading amounts exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days [2] - The Hang Seng Index also increased, but A-shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks overall [2] - The net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 35.876 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong assets [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a decline this week, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, leading to negative returns for pure bond funds [2] - The funding environment remained balanced but slightly loose, which typically supports bond performance [2] - Basic economic data showed weak credit data and continued deflation, which could provide some support for bonds despite the market's limited pricing of fundamental data [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices saw a significant pullback this week, influenced by cautious Federal Reserve attitudes and unexpected PPI data [3] - The overall commodity index rose by 0.52%, with agricultural and non-ferrous metals performing well, while precious metals declined [35] Stock Market Insights - The strong performance of the stock market is attributed to good recent profit effects, a strong overall atmosphere, and reduced external uncertainties due to the 90-day delay in US-China tariffs [6] - The market is believed to have substantial structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors with high earnings certainty and potential for positive surprises [7] Industry Performance - In the industry performance, the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors showed significant gains, with increases of 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively [23] - Conversely, the banking, steel, and textile sectors experienced declines [23] Economic Data - July economic data showed a 5.7% increase in industrial value added, with 35 out of 41 major industries reporting growth [31] - Social financing and M2 growth rates remained high, indicating continued liquidity in the economy [31] International Market - US stocks continued to rise, with the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increasing, which could present opportunities in US Treasury bonds [10] - The overall trend in global major economies is towards fiscal expansion, which may support fundamentals and risk appetite [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report [1] - Core view: Despite the mediocre macro - data in the off - season, the stock market remains strong, treasury bond futures continue to correct, and the curve turns steeper. The net long positions of private funds increased slightly on a weekly basis, while those of wealth management subsidiaries and foreign investors decreased significantly. Maintain the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be volatile and bearish [4] Group 2: Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Market performance: Treasury bond futures contracts declined this week, and the curve steepened significantly. The market showed a differentiated pattern with increased volatility at the long - end and continued resilience at the short - end. Policy expectations and the game of the capital market dominated market sentiment [5][7] - Short - end market: Supported by the capital market, it fluctuated within a narrow range. The 2 - year contract (TS2509) had a small decline this week. The capital market was loose, with DR001/DR007 interest rates at a low level, and the central bank continued net investment to stabilize liquidity [7] - Long - end market: Affected by policy games, the volatility increased. The yield curve showed alternating "flattening - steepening" characteristics [7] Group 3: Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - There is relevant content about liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific details are provided in the given text [9] Group 4: Seat Analysis - Daily change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 1.41%; foreign investors increased by 1.66%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.94% - Weekly change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 3.84%; foreign investors decreased by 24.11%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 27.72% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the capital interest rates maintained a "low-level and low-volatility" state, with a slight increase during the tax period. The central bank's flexible injections and large banks' high net lending maintained a comfortable liquidity environment. The market's expectation of further monetary easing converged, but the capital market remained relatively stable, with fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open market operations were mainly net withdrawals, but turned to net injections during the tax period, and a 6M repurchase agreement was implemented on the tax day. The capital interest rates were close to the bottom, rising slightly on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending reached a new high, and the yield spread of certificates of deposit (CDs) in the primary and secondary markets fluctuated narrowly, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [1]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report confirmed sufficient liquidity, suggesting that interest rates may remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited room for further decline. The central bank may be cautious in using aggregate tools, focusing more on implementing existing policies and improving the transmission mechanism, and paying attention to non-interest financing costs. The fundamental purpose of the financial system to serve the real economy may be more prominent, and the market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [1]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to remain stable, with limited upward pressure on interest rates and a need for more policy signals to break through the lower limit. The maturity scale of reverse repurchases and CDs will decrease, and the influencing factors will be staggered, making the market fluctuations controllable. The coordinated monetary and fiscal policies will ensure sufficient liquidity supply. Interest rates may continue to show "low - volatility and rigidity", and it is unlikely to break through the previous low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Capital Market Steady State - This week, the capital market remained comfortable, with minor fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net withdrawals from Monday to Thursday, but turned to net injections on August 15, the tax deadline, along with a 5000 - billion - yuan 6M repurchase agreement. Capital interest rates were "low - level and low - volatility", rising on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending remained high, and CD prices were stable, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [11]. - The continuous loosening of capital in August was due to the phased injection of repurchase agreements and the fact that August is not a major tax - paying month, with lower tax revenues and reduced mid - month payment pressure [18][20]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report was more positive about the domestic economy, emphasizing strategic stability. The central bank may continue to "targeted and precise" regulation, with short - term liquidity remaining stable. The central bank is concerned about financial risk prevention, may be cautious in using aggregate tools, and will focus on supporting the real economy through structural policies. The market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [21][22]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to be stable. The pressure will ease as the maturity scale of reverse repurchases, government bonds, and CDs decreases. The influencing factors will be staggered, and with the coordinated policies, there is no need to worry about liquidity. Interest rates are likely to remain "low - level and low - volatility", and it is difficult to break through the previous low without additional liquidity or policy support [25]. 3.2. Open Market Operations - From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases, 1126.7 billion yuan in maturities, and 500 billion yuan in 6M repurchase agreements. From August 18 - 22, the open - market maturity will be 931.8 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [31]. - The reverse repurchase balance continued to decline. As of August 15, it was 711.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 414.9 billion yuan from August 8. In August, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature for 300 billion yuan, and repurchase agreements will mature for 900 billion yuan (400 billion yuan for 3M and 500 billion yuan for 6M). The net injection of repurchase agreements was 300 billion yuan [33][35]. 3.3. Government Bonds - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, including 310.3 billion yuan in treasury bond issuance, 91.4 billion yuan in local bond issuance, 95.6 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities, and 73.2 billion yuan in local bond maturities. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 731.2 billion yuan, including 362 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 369.2 billion yuan in local bonds, with 40.1 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities and 167.9 billion yuan in local bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 84.9 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 179.2 billion yuan [38]. - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 214.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 4555.5 billion yuan this year, reaching 74% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 248.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3454.4 billion yuan, reaching 66% of the annual plan [39]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a decrease of about 0.08 percentage points from July and 0.09 percentage points from the same period last year. The predicted excess reserve at the end of July was 4413.6 billion yuan. From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was - 120 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was 2.62 billion yuan, and the tax payment was 998.5 billion yuan [44][45]. 3.5. Money Market - Interest rates increased. As of August 15, compared with August 8, DR001 increased by 9.03 basis points to 1.4%, DR007 increased by 5.47 basis points to 1.48%, R001 increased by 9.78 basis points to 1.44%, and R007 increased by 3.2 basis points to 1.49%. Overnight interest rates hovered around 1.4%. The spreads between various interest rates and the OMO rate also changed [47]. - The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 1.67 basis points and 0.21 basis points to 1.33% and 1.44% respectively. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 27.57 basis points and 7.13 basis points to 1.49% and 1.53% respectively. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.58 basis points and 0.71 basis points to 1.52% and 1.57% respectively. The weekly average of six - month national and city commercial bill transfer rates changed by - 0.03 percentage points to 0.65% and 0.76% respectively [52][55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8151.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.3 billion yuan from August 4 - 8. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2084.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.8 billion yuan from August 4 - 8 [57]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 153.3 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average net lending of large state - owned banks was 4.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan from last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 258.3 billion yuan from last week [60]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - This week (August 11 - 15), the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 130.3 billion yuan, a decrease compared with last week. By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9 - month CDs had the highest net financing [69]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 8.09 months, longer than last week's 6.4 months. Among different types of banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had weighted average issuance terms of 9.8, 8.1, 6.7, and 7.4 months respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.31, 0.67, 0.52, and 0.91 months from last week [73]. - In terms of issuance success rates, joint - stock banks had the highest success rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest success rate, and by credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest success rate [75]. - Next week (August 18 - 24), the maturity scale of CDs will be 797.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.7 billion yuan from this week. The maturity is mainly concentrated in state - owned banks and city commercial banks, and the terms are mainly 1 - year and 3 - month [78][79].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 128.7 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 14, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a bid amount of 128.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remained stable, with a slight tightening in liquidity. The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) increased slightly to 1.31%, while the overnight quotes for non-bank institutions rose to around 1.45% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US was reported at 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was around 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds showed various rates, with one-year government bonds at 1.3750% and ten-year government bonds at 1.7320% [10] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds fell by 0.36%, marking a new low in over four months [13] Group 5: Recent Developments - The central bank plans to conduct a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a six-month term [14] - China Ping An's investment in China Pacific Insurance was described as a routine financial investment by a company representative [14] - South Korea's fiscal deficit exceeded 94 trillion won (approximately 68.2 billion USD) in the first half of the year, indicating a need to boost domestic demand [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting the impact of U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the introduction of new loan policies on market sentiment and investment strategies [3][6][8]. Group 1: Financial Market Conditions - The U.S.-China tariff truce has been extended for another 90 days, contributing to a continued rise in the stock market [6]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 114.6 billion, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion due to 160.7 billion reverse repos maturing [3]. - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates; DR001 is around 1.32% and DR007 is around 1.44% [4]. Group 2: Loan Policies and Market Reactions - New policies for interest subsidies on business loans and consumer loans were announced, leading to fluctuations in interest rates, which peaked at 1.7275% after the announcement [6][7]. - There is a notable concern regarding the use of loan funds, with warnings against using borrowed money for investment purposes [7]. Group 3: Employment and Industry Trends - The number of ride-hailing drivers in China has increased from 2.891 million in 2020 to 7.483 million in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 26.8%, while the average daily orders have significantly dropped from 23.3 to 10 [7]. - The article expresses a sentiment of uncertainty regarding career paths in the current economic climate, indicating that traditional job security is diminishing [8].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints On August 8, the capital market showed a stable and slightly loose trend. The bond market oscillated strongly, the convertible bond market continued to rise slightly, and most convertible bond issues increased. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies also generally increased [1]. Section Summaries 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline remaining the same as in June [3]. - In July, the China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index was 89.0, remaining the same as the previous month. Among the sub - indices, the capital index and investment index increased by 0.2 and 0.1 points respectively [4]. - Trust companies are prohibited from conducting trust business that essentially provides financing for a single financing party, which will have a significant impact on non - standard businesses [4]. - Two standard baskets of science and technology innovation bonds were launched for trading, helping to improve the liquidity of science and technology innovation bonds in the inter - bank market [5]. - **International News** - The Trump administration has unexpectedly expanded the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman to about 10 people, which may ease market concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve [6]. - **Commodities** - On August 8, WTI September crude oil futures closed flat at $63.88 per barrel, down about 5.1% for the week. Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.24% to $66.59 per barrel, down about 4.4% for the week. COMEX December gold futures rose about 1.1%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.79% to $2.996 per ounce [7]. 2. Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On August 8, the central bank conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan [9]. - **Capital Interest Rates** - On August 8, the capital market remained stable and slightly loose. DR001 decreased by 0.35bp to 1.312%, and DR007 decreased by 2.64bp to 1.425% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 8, the bond market oscillated strongly. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.35bp to 1.6910%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 remained flat at 1.7900% [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 25 - attached Treasury Bond 07 (Continued 3) with a term of 0.74 years had an issue size of 126 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6052%, a full - field multiple of 3.38, and a marginal multiple of 6.22. The 25 - ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 05 (Continued 2) with a 30 - year term had an issue size of 82 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.9576%, a full - field multiple of 3.6, and a marginal multiple of 1.76 [14]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 8, the trading price of one urban investment bond, "H8 Longkong 05", deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 60% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Three bonds of Sunac Real Estate, such as "H Sunac 07", will resume trading on August 11, and a total of 3.3 billion yuan of bonds have been cancelled [15]. - The bond "H22 Futong 1" of Futong Group, originally due on August 8, has been given a 20 - day grace period by bondholders [15]. - Due to a bond trading dispute with Junkang Life Insurance, the equity of 9 companies held by Fanhai Holdings has been frozen [15]. - Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group decided to re - issue the "25 Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group SCP003 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond)" at an appropriate time due to market fluctuations [15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 8, the three major A - share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 0.12%, 0.26%, and 0.38% respectively, with a full - day trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan [17]. - The main convertible bond market indices closed up. The China Bond Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively, with a trading volume of 86.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.605 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On August 8, Changhong Convertible Bond, Leizhi Convertible Bond, Huayang Convertible Bond, Kairun Convertible Bond, and Huahai Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed to lower the conversion price [24]. - On August 8, Xince Convertible Bond and Longhua Convertible Bond announced early redemption, and Tianrun Convertible Bond and Gaoce Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger the early redemption condition [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 4bp to 3.76% and 4.27% respectively [21]. - The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 51bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed by 1bp to 101bp [22]. - The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 4bp to 2.39% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 4bp to 2.69%, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 5bp, 6bp, and 6bp respectively [25]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on August 8, the prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the price of INDI 4 ½ 11/15/27 rose 5.3%, and the price of GRNLGR 5.9 02/12/25 fell 4.7 - 5.1% [27].

Report Information - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: Have Large Banks Started Buying Long-Term Bonds? - Weekly Report on Bond Market Institutional Behavior (Week 1 of August)" [1] - Report Date: August 10, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi [3] - Analyst: Hong Ziyan [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The bond market ran smoothly this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield slightly dropping to 1.69%, the funding rate staying around 1.42%, and the 5-year AAA medium - short note yield dropping to 1.91% [3][11] - Large banks continued to buy short - term bonds, and although they bought some long - term bonds, the volume was less than 10 billion yuan, so it's hard to say they have started buying long - term bonds. However, they have bought long - term local government bonds in multiple weeks since June, which may be related to duration balance and return requirements [3][4][12] - Funds further increased their purchases of credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds. With the easing of the funding situation, the bond market leverage ratio climbed, and there is still an opportunity for credit spreads to compress [4][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Yield Curve**: Treasury yields declined overall, with the 1Y yield down 2bp, 3Y down 3bp, 5Y down about 3bp, 7Y down 1bp, 10Y down 2bp, 15Y flat, and 30Y up 1bp. For CDB bonds, short - term yields declined and long - term yields increased, with the 1Y yield changing less than 1bp, 3Y down 1bp, 5Y down 1bp, 7Y changing less than 1bp, 10Y up 2bp, 15Y up 2bp, and 30Y up 1bp [14] - **Term Spread**: Treasury interest spreads rose, and the spreads widened overall; CDB bond interest spreads were stable, and the middle - term spreads widened [15][16][17] 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage Ratio**: It dropped to 107.51%. From August 4th to August 8th, it first decreased and then increased during the week. As of August 8th, it was about 107.51%, down 0.07 pct from last Friday and up 0.24 pct from Monday [21] - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily turnover of pledged repurchase this week was 8.1 trillion yuan, with the average daily overnight proportion at 89.87%. The average overnight turnover was 7.3 trillion yuan, up 1.53 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the overnight trading proportion was up 3.10 pct [27][28] - **Funding Situation**: Bank lending showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of August 8th, large and policy banks' net lending was 5.22 trillion yuan; joint - stock and urban/rural commercial banks' average daily net borrowing was 0.57 trillion yuan, and the net borrowing on August 8th was 0.74 trillion yuan. The net lending of the banking system was 4.47 trillion yuan. DR007 fluctuated upward, and R007 fluctuated downward [31] 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds decreased to 2.81 years (de - leveraged) and 3.12 years (leveraged). On August 8th, the de - leveraged median duration was 2.81 years, down 0.02 years from last Friday; the leveraged median duration was 3.12 years, down 0.06 years from last Friday [45] - **Duration by Bond Fund Type**: The median duration (leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds decreased to 3.92 years, up 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) of credit bond funds decreased to 2.89 years, down 0.07 years from last Friday. The de - leveraged median duration of interest - rate bond funds was 3.44 years, down 0.03 years from last Friday; the de - leveraged median duration of credit bond funds was 2.65 years, down 0.04 years from last Friday [48] 3.4 Category Strategy Comparison - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: It generally narrowed, with the 1Y narrowing by 8bp, 2Y by 10bp, 3Y by 6bp, 5Y by 9bp, 7Y by 7bp, 10Y by 6bp, and 30Y by 3bp [54] - **Implied Tax Rate**: It generally widened. As of August 8th, the CDB - Treasury spread widened by 2bp for 1Y, 2bp for 3Y, 1bp for 5Y, about 1bp for 7Y, 3bp for 10Y, about 2bp for 15Y, and less than 1bp for 30Y [55] 3.5 Bond Lending Balance Changes - On August 8th, the lending concentration of the active 10 - year Treasury bond increased, while the lending concentration trends of the second - active 10 - year Treasury bond, active 10 - year CDB bond, second - active 10 - year CDB bond, and active 30 - year Treasury bond declined. All institutions showed a decline [59]

Monetary Market Overview - The central bank's OMO net withdrawal this week was CNY 536.5 billion, with an additional CNY 700 billion in 3M reverse repos on Friday[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased to CNY 8.11 trillion, with a peak of CNY 8.4 trillion on Wednesday[4] - The overnight interest rate (DR001) has seen a downward adjustment, with the lower limit dropping to 1.25% from 1.3%[3][20] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The 1Y Shibor rate decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.64%, while the 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit secondary rate fell by 1.75 basis points to 1.6175%[4] - The net financing scale of interbank certificates of deposit rose to CNY 192 billion, with state-owned banks contributing CNY 74.4 billion[4] Government Bond Issuance - This week, the actual net payment for government bonds was CNY 370.6 billion, with an expected increase to CNY 410.1 billion next week[22] - Cumulative issuance of new general bonds reached CNY 542.6 billion, while new special bonds totaled CNY 28,179 billion[22] Future Expectations - The central bank is expected to maintain a stable monetary policy, with the lower limit of DR001 projected to decrease to 1.2% by September[21] - The government bond issuance forecast for August and September remains unchanged at CNY 2.5 trillion and CNY 2.1 trillion, respectively[31]