查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 整体观点： 1、氢氨醇+风电：在中国未来产业、26年欧盟碳关税双重利好加持下，氢氨醇作为新能源消纳和绿电非电 领域应用的重要方向有望获得更多投资；此外，全球航运业正加快脱碳转型，国际海事组织（IMO）推动 绿色燃料政策出台，绿色甲醇价格在船用需求快速提升和供给阶段性受限的情况下有望维持高位。氢氨醇 板块当前的市场预期较低，亦可与风电板块形成共振。 点击注册小程序 2、美国缺电：逻辑持续演绎，英伟达当前出货规模对应数据中心功率水平、美国实际电源与电网装机功 率能力的差值是市场博弈的重点。短期受降息预期和空头交易影响，相关标的股价整体有波动，但从趋势 来看，未来科技仍为主线，重点关注海外储能、SST等板块超跌反弹的机会。 3、国内储能：黑龙江省发 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 （王招华/方驭涛） 2025-11-23 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【电新环保】看好风电及氢氨醇板块，美国缺电寻找超跌反弹机会——电新环保行业周报20251123 1）氢氨醇作为新能源消纳和绿电非电领域应用的重要方向有望获得更多投资，氢氨醇板块当前市场预期 较低，亦可与风电板块形成共振，重点关注。2）美国缺电逻辑持续演绎，未来科技仍为主线，重点关注 海外储能、SST等板块超跌反弹的机会。3）2026年国内独立储能招标有望维持2025年的较好水平。4）锂 电方面重点关注供给变数较大的锂矿及盈利尚不支持扩产的隔膜环节的投资机会。 （殷中枢/郝骞/陈无忌/和霖/邓怡亮） 2025-11-23 您可点击今日推送内容的第3条查看 今 日 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 中信一级行业分类来看，食品饮料处于估值分位数"安全"等级。 截面波动率来看，最近一周沪深300、中证500指数成分股横截面波动率环比前一周下降，短期Alpha环境 恶化；中证1000指数成分股横截面波动率环比前一周上升，短期Alpha环境好转。 时间序列上来看，最近一周沪深300指数成分股时间序列波动率环比前一周下降，Alpha环境恶化；中证 500、中证1000指数成分股时间序列波动率环比前一周上升，Alpha环境好转。 报告摘要 本周市场核心观点： 本周（2025.11.17-2025.11.21，下同）A股出现大幅回调，红利风格相对占优。市场量能先抑后扬，周度环 比上周仍有收缩。资金面方面，融资增加额不振，反映出市场避险情绪较浓。 ...

□本报记者 王宇露 上周市场震荡调整，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数报1938.09点。伊利股份（600887）、苏泊尔 （002032）、双汇发展（000895）等成分股上周逆市上涨；下半年以来，中际旭创（300308）、阳光电 源（300274）、亿纬锂能（300014）等成分股涨幅居前。 展望后市，机构认为，短期市场或震荡调整，后续大幅下行的概率较小，12月有望迎来震荡修复行情， 短期需兼顾防御性与结构性机会。 配置方面，建信基金认为，短期需兼顾防御性与结构性机会，主要看好两大方向：一是低估值防御板 块，如银行、食品饮料、家电、交通运输、煤炭、公用事业等，此类板块估值处于历史低位，在市场波 动中具备较好的抗跌属性；二是超跌弹性品种的反弹机会，如锂电、机器人、恒生科技、科创板等，估 值与情绪均处于较低区域，若市场情绪回暖有望迎来修复行情。 多只成分股逆市上涨 上周市场震荡调整，上证指数下跌3.90%，深证成指下跌5.13%，创业板指下跌6.15%，沪深300指数下 跌3.77%，品牌工程指数下跌4.04%，报1938.09点。 上周品牌工程指数多只成分股逆市上涨。具体来说，伊利股份上涨2.65%，排在涨幅榜首 ...

Market Analysis - The market has entered an adjustment period since September 4, with diminishing upward momentum and shrinking trading volume, indicating a potential for increased pullback [1] - The analysis of market indices is crucial for position control, suggesting a proactive reduction in positions during horizontal market structures to manage risk exposure [1] - The recent gap down is a significant signal marking the beginning of a pullback cycle, emphasizing the need for defensive strategies in advance [1] Technical Indicators - The market appears to be approaching the 200-day weighted average price through a rapid decline, with sentiment indicators showing signs of overselling; however, a true rebound opportunity may require touching the 200-day moving average [2] - The combination of a convex reversal at the 50-day moving average and a gap down often leads to a strong bearish trend within a few days [2]

郑氏点银：今晚公布9月非农数据，留意超跌反弹 第三，黄金小时线级别：从上图通道分布看，目前是处于蓝色通道下轨之下，黄色通道上轨承压，高点在逐步走低，震荡偏弱些；但同时每一次刷前面新 低，都会出现较长下影K，说明下方支撑也逐步强劲，macd已经完成空头释放，随时等待零轴之下金叉而多头放量，因此今晚倾向于震荡拉升，要么探底拉 升，要么直接拉升，就决定于今晚公布的9月非农数据；趋势线压力点集中4083-4085，若能大阳或连阳突破站上，那么会继续冲击4110，甚至4132、4150- 4160等；反之，无法突破站上趋势压力点，则反复冲高回落，下方再破日内低点，依然容易超跌反弹； 其实从15分钟级别，4055-4041-4039三次打出的低 点，对应macd空头柱能是逐步衰减的，形成量能背离，就容易超跌反弹，当前这个小时就有所启动了，回踩4052企稳拉升反弹中；因此，今晚数据若利 好，则突破站上4085站稳后，则回踩确认继续看涨上行； 反之，出现急跌回落，则等破了今天低点之后，等企稳，大概4030及下方仍随时会超跌反弹； 白银方面： 图形和黄金走势基本一致，当前也是留意黄色通道上轨51.1一线，若能直接突破站上站稳， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing a defensive style, with major indices experiencing adjustments while defensive sectors like banking and coal are performing well [1][3] - Global markets are exhibiting significant divergence, with US stocks rising due to increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, while European indices are under pressure from weak economic data [2][5] - The A-share market's trading volume has decreased, indicating a cautious market sentiment, with a total trading volume of 10.96 trillion yuan for the week [3][5] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the major indices are generally declining, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the ChiNext Index down 5.71%, reflecting a "value strong, growth weak" characteristic [3][5] - Defensive sectors such as banking (up 4.89%) and coal (up 4.17%) are leading the gains, while technology and media sectors are experiencing significant declines [3][4] - The Hong Kong market is also under pressure, with the Hang Seng Index down 3.97% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 7.98%, primarily due to valuation corrections in tech stocks [4][5] Group 3 - The commodity market is seeing strong demand for precious metals, with COMEX gold and silver prices rising by 6.69% and 7.15% respectively, indicating increased market risk aversion [4][5] - The upcoming earnings reports from major players in the new energy sector, such as CATL and Tesla, are expected to influence market sentiment and sector performance [6] - The overall market is anticipated to enter a recovery phase, with major indices approaching support levels and potential short-term rebound momentum building [5][6]

Core Insights - The stock of Yaojie Ankang - B (02617) experienced extreme volatility, with a significant rise followed by a sharp decline, indicating a classic "pump and dump" scenario [1][7][14] Group 1: Price Movement and Trading Volume - From September 5 to September 15, 2025, the stock surged by 593.40% with a trading volume of 44.58 million shares, totaling 7.763 billion [2][3] - The stock reached a peak price of 431.40 and a low of 59.90 during this period, with a trading turnover rate of 14.78% [3] - The subsequent period from September 16 to October 15 saw a drastic decline, with the stock price dropping over 72% from a high of 679.50 [7][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The initial surge was driven by mainland investors through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which increased holdings by over 306,000 shares, indicating strong buying interest [4][5] - In contrast, during the decline, the Southbound Stock Connect saw a significant reduction in holdings by 0.6650%, while the Northbound Stock Connect increased by 0.598%, highlighting a divergence in investor sentiment [9][12] - The rebound from October 16 to 17, 2025, saw a 78.85% increase, characterized by a trading volume of 22.76 million shares, indicating a classic "dead cat bounce" [10][11] Group 3: Institutional Actions - Major institutional players like BNP Paribas and Merrill Lynch emerged as new buyers during the rebound, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [10][12] - The actions of domestic funds indicated a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the rebound, as they were net sellers during this period [12][14] - The overall trading behavior suggests that the rebound was primarily driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term investment confidence [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trading activity of Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) has exhibited extreme volatility, characterized by a rapid price surge followed by a significant decline, indicating a potential manipulation of stock prices by major players in the market [1]. Group 1: Price Surge Phase - From September 5 to September 15, 2025, the stock experienced a staggering increase of 593.40% with a volatility of 620.72%, marked by a high turnover rate of 14.78% and a dominant bullish trend with 6 up days against 1 down day [2][3]. - The total trading volume during this period reached 44.58 million shares, with a total transaction value of 7.763 billion [3]. - Major funds aggressively bought shares, creating a "star stock" effect to attract attention and speculative trading, while also facilitating a redistribution of shares from weaker hands to stronger ones [4]. Group 2: Distribution Phase - From September 16 to October 15, 2025, the stock price plummeted from a high of 679.50 to a low of 111.00, reflecting a maximum decline of over 72% [7][8]. - The trading volume during this period was 59.19 million shares, with a total value of 13.0581 billion, and a predominance of bearish trading days (13 down days vs. 6 up days) [8]. - The selling pressure was primarily driven by the deep stock connect funds, which significantly reduced their holdings, while the Shanghai stock connect funds attempted to stabilize the price through selective buying [9]. Group 3: Short-term Rebound - A brief rebound occurred on October 16 and 17, 2025, with a two-day increase of 78.85% and a volatility of 98.50%, indicating a classic "dead cat bounce" pattern [10][11]. - The total trading volume for this rebound was 22.76 million shares, all of which were bullish, suggesting that new buying interest emerged from international short-term traders [10][12]. - The rebound was not supported by the original major holders, who instead viewed it as an opportunity to reduce their positions, indicating a lack of confidence in a sustained recovery [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The PG futures market has rebounded recently, driven by factors such as a technical bounce after an oversold situation and concerns about potential supply disruptions from the US due to tariff threats. However, considering the uncertainties in macro and policy aspects during the China - US negotiation window and the expected continuation of the global oversupply situation in LPG, there are still resistances in the market [1] Market Analysis Summary - On October 16, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market, 4200 - 4310 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4810 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4490 - 4530 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 539 dollars/ton and 544 dollars/ton respectively, both up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4211 yuan/ton and 4250 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 533 dollars/ton and 538 dollars/ton respectively, also up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4164 yuan/ton and 4203 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each [1] - The recent rebound of the PG futures is due to an oversold bounce. After Saudi Arabia cut the October CP price more than expected, the overseas market dropped during the National Day holiday, and the domestic futures followed suit. The spot market was relatively stable, leading to a stronger basis. After the price decline, the cost reduction of raw materials is conducive to the marginal repair of downstream chemical profits and demand. The narrowing price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switch of raw materials from naphtha to LPG. The threat of US tariffs has also strengthened the rebound sentiment. But due to the uncertainties in macro and policy and the expected continuation of the global oversupply of LPG, the market resistance remains [1]