水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 超跌反弹 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨0.90%，收报3862.53点；深证成指涨 2.05%，收报13479.43点；创业板指涨2.74%，收报3238.01点。 沪深两市成交额达到 21615亿，较上一交易日放量146亿。 出其不意，攻其不备。 上周五的杀跌阴影犹在，主力今 天 却打出漂亮的回马枪。券商 和 新能源双管齐下，打了空 头一个措手不及。收盘时，三大指数全线上扬，完成对上周五 这根 阴线的反包。 上证指数上涨 0.90% ，深 证 成指上涨 2.05% ，创业板指上涨 2.74% 。个股方面，上涨 3457 家，下跌 1580 家；成交量与上周五基本持平。主力资金流入 18 亿，北 向 大单今 天 净流入 44 亿。 盘面上相当戏剧化，开盘后下跌个股一度多达 4000 多家，黄线跌幅在 0.6%-0.7% 之间， 可见多数股票开盘出现恐慌性杀跌。但深 证 成指因宁德时代高开高走，始终保持 高高在上的 态势。 10 点后，上证指数在中信证券拉抬下开始一路上行， 10 点半左右翻红；上午收盘时 涨幅不大，仅 0.13% 左右。 下午，在 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market sentiment has recovered, showing a rebound and oscillation. The CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling, despite facing factors such as insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina [1][3]. - The soybean meal and soybean markets have different price trends. The DCE soybean meal futures and spot prices have declined, while the CBOT soybean futures have a slight increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,878 yuan/ton during the day session, down 33 yuan (-0.84%), and 3,886 yuan/ton during the night session, up 10 yuan (+0.26%). The DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton during the day session, down 102 yuan (-3.37%), and 2,917 yuan/ton during the night session, down 37 yuan (-1.25%). The CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,012.5 cents/bushel, up 1.25 cents (+0.12%), and the CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at $277/short ton, down $3.2 (-1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal spot price is 2,980 yuan/ton (Yantai Yihai), with the basis M2601 + 0, up 30 yuan compared to the previous day. In East China, the price is 2,960 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with the basis M2601 - 20, remaining flat compared to the previous day. In South China, the price ranges from 2,950 to 2,980 yuan/ton, with the basis M2601 + 0, down 70 to 40 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 24.96 million tons per day, and the inventory was 117.04 million tons per week, showing an increase compared to the previous two trading days [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 23, the CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to technical overselling. The market was affected by insufficient Chinese demand and increased competition from Argentina, but it rebounded technically at the end of the session [1][3]. - Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products, as well as beef and poultry on Monday to boost overseas sales and obtain dollars to support the peso. Chinese buyers then ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans, which is a blow to US farmers [3]. - Crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered the US soybean yield forecast by 0.5 bushels to 52 bushels per acre and estimated the soybean production to be 4.17 billion bushels [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral state for the main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is currently focused on finding opportunities for rebound in oversold conditions, with a recommendation to engage in medium to long-term interest rate bonds for trading [1] - The recent bond market has experienced a noticeable upward fluctuation in yields, with a steepening yield curve, primarily due to stronger stock market performance and rising inflation or economic recovery expectations [1][1] - The investment strategy for credit bonds suggests focusing on high-grade, medium to short-term credit bonds to achieve stable interest income, as the yield fluctuations have been relatively small [1] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain in a weak oscillating pattern in the future, with upward pressure on bond prices due to sustained stock market performance and higher market risk appetite [1]

Core Insights - The article presents a comprehensive market monitoring dashboard covering multiple asset classes, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, providing traders with indicators for trend, reversal, volatility, and overbought/oversold conditions [1]. Asset Classification - The assets are categorized into four main classes: Equity, FX, Commodities, and Crypto, each with specific indicators for analysis [2]. Key Assets and Recent Changes - Key assets to focus on include: - **Equity**: SP500_US and Nasdaq100_US are highlighted for their significant volatility and potential for trend continuation or reversal [1]. - **China Stocks**: CSI300_China and SSE_China are noted for their low valuations and potential rebound, albeit with high volatility [1]. - **Forex**: USDJPY and USDCNY are emphasized due to significant central bank policy differences, while EURUSD and GBPUSD are suitable for macro hedging [1]. - **Commodities**: Gold and CrudeWTI are driven by safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, while CopperHG and Soybean are sensitive to economic cycles and Chinese demand [1]. - **Cryptocurrency**: BTCUSD and ETHUSD are recognized for their high volatility and suitability for swing trading [1]. Potential Trading Opportunities - Trading opportunities are identified based on specific numerical indicators, such as extreme Sigma values indicating potential rebounds or trend continuations [3]. Suggested Operational Framework - Strategies include: - **Rebound Opportunities**: Identifying assets with low Sigma values and reversal signals for potential rebounds [4]. - **Trend Continuation**: Following assets where EMA20 is above EMA100, indicating an upward trend [4]. - **Volatility Strategies**: Utilizing high VolRank and rising ATR% for options strategies or breakout trades [4]. Risk Considerations - Risks include: - **Overbought Risks**: High Sigma values indicating potential short-term overheating [4]. - **Trend Reversal Risks**: Signals indicating potential reversals, especially with high deviation [4]. - **Liquidity/Volatility Risks**: Extreme market conditions requiring position control [4]. Multi-Asset Comparison and Risk Management - Emphasis on comparing assets within the same category and using multiple indicators for comprehensive analysis [4]. - Risk management is prioritized, with all trades requiring stop-loss measures based on volatility and drawdown metrics [4]. - The technical analysis should be complemented with macroeconomic factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical events [4].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering to 3800 after a period of decline, driven by strong buying activity in the technology and new energy sectors [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the strong resistance level of 3700 and is expected to target 4000 in the medium term [2]. - Other sectors, apart from the main technology focus, are still at low levels and have a demand for rebound [3]. - Continuous expectations for a decrease in the US dollar interest rates are leading to sustained foreign capital inflow into the Chinese market [4]. - The ongoing decline in the 30-year Treasury ETF is causing funds to flow from the bond market into the stock market [5]. Sector Performance - **New Energy**: Initiated on August 29, this sector has shown significant strength, with a notable increase in lithium battery stocks due to a 68% year-on-year increase in shipments and upcoming key projects in solid-state batteries [9]. - **Cyclical Metals**: Started on September 1, this sector is experiencing moderate recovery, driven by expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which have weakened the dollar and attracted global capital [10][11]. - **Consumer Sector**: Launched on September 4, this sector is showing weak divergence, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption. However, the sector's performance is currently under scrutiny due to low trading volumes [12]. Investment Strategy - The focus is on low-position institutional rebound opportunities, particularly in the new energy sector, which is expected to become the new mainline direction [8]. - The technology sector is currently in a divergence phase, and investors are advised to monitor volume and price movements before making new investments [13].

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 3.89%, and the ChiNext Index up 6.55% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 233.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Various ETFs showed positive performance, with the CSI A500 ETF rising 2.55%, the ChiNext 50 ETF up 8.06%, the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF up 7.34%, and the Sci-Tech 100 ETF up 4.7% [1] Reasons for the Rise - The market experienced a short-term rebound due to the release of profit-taking pressure following significant events from September 2 to September 4 [5] - A collective surge in the banking sector on September 4 afternoon significantly boosted the indices, indicating strong market support and improved investor confidence [5] - The VIX index suggests that market sentiment has stabilized, with a downward trend indicating no panic among investors [5] Future Outlook - The strengthening of the RMB and signs of foreign capital inflow are expected to continue supporting A-shares [7] - The relative attractiveness of the RMB has increased as the appeal of the USD has declined, marking the end of a three-year upward cycle since September 30, 2021 [9] - Active foreign capital has shown a net inflow for three consecutive weeks since August 15, 2023, indicating a potential trend reversal and further attraction of foreign investment [9] - Investors are encouraged to focus on broad-based index products such as the CSI A500 ETF, the 300 Enhanced ETF, and others [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing low returns and high volatility, increasing the demand for tactical trading and selection skills. Investors are advised to focus on the spread compression opportunity of the new 30-year government bond [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Observations - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has shown signs of desensitization, with stock and bond movements transitioning from "one rises while the other falls" to "synchronous fluctuations" [5][6]. - Institutional behavior has become more rational, with redemption pressures on fixed-income products not significantly worsening, indicating limited room for trading positions to reduce [6][7]. - Market logic is returning to fundamentals and policy expectations, with the central bank's liquidity support alleviating market sentiment [7]. Group 2: Equity Market Trends - The equity market remains in a trend-up phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a "volume-based consolidation" rather than a "volume-declining downturn" [14][17]. - Short-term price pullbacks in a trend-up phase are often triggered by emotional disturbances or profit-taking, but core drivers such as policy expectations and liquidity remain unchanged [17]. - The current market structure indicates a rotation of funds between sectors, with low-valuation sectors like brokerage and real estate adjusting while growth sectors like solar and semiconductors remain active [17]. Group 3: 30-Year Government Bond Opportunities - The characteristics of bond asset returns have changed, with excess returns now relying on tactical trading strategies such as betting on rebounds and the convergence of new and old bond spreads [19][20]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on the spread compression opportunity of the new 30-year government bond, as its yield is currently at 2.135%, with a spread of 11.7 basis points compared to the active bond [20][21]. - As the new 30-year government bond gradually becomes an active bond, liquidity premiums are expected to rise, potentially leading to a "spread elimination" scenario [21].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the market saw significant upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 0.3%, and both the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increasing by over 0.4% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 10,735 billion yuan, an increase of 54.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,900 stocks in the market were in the green, indicating a strong profit-making effect [1] PEEK Materials Sector - The PEEK materials sector experienced explosive growth, with companies like Zhongxin Fluorine Materials and Xinhan New Materials hitting the daily limit, and Huami New Materials rising over 20% [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has identified PEEK materials as a "core focus for new material breakthroughs," highlighting the significant domestic demand and the current reliance on imports for 50% of PEEK materials [3] - The anticipated demand surge is driven by applications such as Tesla's Optimus robot, which requires 2.3 kg of PEEK material, and the upcoming robotics conference in August [3] Military Equipment Sector - The military equipment sector also showed strong performance, with Guorui Technology and Great Wall Military both hitting the daily limit, and companies like Beifang Longzhong and Chenxi Aviation rising over 10% [3] - The recent developments, including the commissioning of the Fujian aircraft carrier and the army's new unmanned combat modes, suggest sustained interest and activity in this sector [3] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robot sector performed well, with Huami New Materials reaching a 30% limit up, and Haosen Intelligent and Zhongdali De also hitting the daily limit [3] - The upcoming World Robotics Conference and potential local government subsidies for robot consumption are expected to drive further growth in this sector [3] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector faced challenges, with companies like Qizheng Tibetan Medicine and Guilin Sanjin experiencing declines of over 8% and 7% respectively, primarily due to price pressures from centralized procurement and reduced orders in the CXO industry [4] - Despite the downturn, the sector's valuation has reached historical lows, with leading companies like Tongrentang and Pianzihuang offering dividend yields around 4.5%, indicating potential for a rebound [4] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market's increased trading volume is seen as a positive signal, with hopes that afternoon trading could push total volume above 1.7 trillion yuan, potentially allowing the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3,600 points [4] - Caution is advised in the PEEK materials sector due to a high price-to-earnings ratio of 296, suggesting that waiting for a pullback to the 20-day moving average may be a more prudent strategy [4] - The military and robotics sectors remain areas of interest, provided they maintain trading volume, while the pharmaceutical sector, despite recent declines, may offer value for patient investors [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising due to strong performance in banking and other heavyweight sectors, while the Shenzhen Component Index is underperforming due to the divergence in thematic stocks [2][9] - The market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with structural opportunities being abundant despite short-term fluctuations [10][12] Short-term Market Dynamics - The market is currently above 3500 points, and further upward movement requires sustained trading volume support. Recent trading volume has decreased to approximately 1.45 trillion yuan, indicating a need for market consolidation [10][12] - The policy environment remains supportive of the capital market, with expectations of long-term incremental capital inflows, limiting the potential downside during technical corrections [10][12] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips while being cautious of rapid market changes. It is important to avoid blindly chasing sectors that have seen significant recent gains [3][11] - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected mid-year performance forecasts, focusing on those with improving earnings outlooks [3][11] 2. Technology sectors including robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued speculative plays [3][11] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting a buy-on-dips approach [3][11] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector saw significant gains due to a major contract win, indicating strong growth potential driven by demand in humanoid robotics and other applications [6][7] - The robotics industry has shown substantial growth, with a 60% increase in the humanoid robot sector since early January, supported by strong policy backing and increasing global demand for industrial robots [7][8] - The electricity sector is also active, driven by rising electricity consumption due to high temperatures and the growth of emerging industries, with a reported 10.3% increase in electricity usage in high-tech manufacturing [8]

Group 1 - The A500 index has shown a slight increase of 0.16%, with notable gains from stocks such as Siyuan Electric (+10.00%) and Ecovacs (+10.00%) [1] - The upcoming release of Q2 macroeconomic data by the National Bureau of Statistics is anticipated to provide insights into industrial production, consumption, investment, and corporate operations [1] - Financial and real estate sectors are experiencing a strong performance, which is attributed to policy support, risk-averse capital flows, and efforts to break through previous resistance levels [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: companies with better-than-expected mid-year performance, technology sectors (including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy), and sectors experiencing rebounds from significant declines [2] - The A500 ETF closely tracks the A500 index, which comprises 500 securities selected for their large market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative companies across various industries [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance, collectively accounting for 20.67% of the index [2]