早上好！先来看重要资讯。 美军证实大规模空袭叙利亚境内"伊斯兰国"目标 据央视消息，美军中央司令部当地时间10日在社交媒体发文称，美军当天对极端组织"伊斯兰国"在叙利 亚境内的多个目标发动大规模空袭。 声明称，此次行动是"鹰眼打击行动"的一部分。"鹰眼打击行动"是2025年12月19日美军在叙利亚境内对 极端组织"伊斯兰国"发起的打击行动。美方称，这一行动是对2025年12月13日两名美军士兵和一名担任 翻译的美国平民在叙利亚中部遭袭死亡的回应。 特朗普再次威胁干涉伊朗，称准备提供"帮助" 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普10日在社交媒体上发文，再次威胁干涉伊朗当前局势，称美国随时准备 提供"帮助"。 近日，伊朗因物价上涨和货币贬值爆发示威活动，多地发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。特朗普在多个场合称 美国"正密切关注"伊朗局势，威胁或对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。 伊朗最高国家安全委员会9日发表声明说，在美国与以色列的策划和控制下，此次抗议活动演变为对国 家安全的破坏。特朗普近期言论表明，美以正联手策划，使伊朗人民生活陷入动荡。 伊朗军方表示将捍卫国家利益 据央视消息，当地时间10日，伊朗军方表示，将捍卫国家利益，保护战略基础 ...

2026年作为"十五五"开局第一年，市场对宏观经济基本面预期相对乐观，整体预期实际增速在5% 附近，实现压力不大。具体分领域来看： 基建方面，预计呈前高后低走势，增速维持在6.5%附近，温和修复态势下化债仍为财政核心任 务； 制造业在新质生产力政策推动下，高端化、智能化、绿色化步伐加快，叠加出口红利，投资同比预 计在8%附近； 房地产对经济的负面冲击逐步降低，销售小幅负增长、投资跌幅温和收窄，整体固投呈温和修复趋 势； 回到整个市场的定价上看，一方面，明年一旦市场对于宏观的叙事相对比较乐观，对于债券市场可 能会出现阶段性的承压。但是，我们觉得明年的整个经济依然是在整个"十五五"期间是一个经济增速的 换挡，所以整体的经济虽然完成指标压力不大，但它的整个弹性也并不是特别高。换句话说，明年对于 债券来说是一个相对比较友好的年份，债券市场可能会重新回到跟经济基本面保持一定相关性的市场风 格，大概率今年的这种脱敏的特征可能会阶段性地消除。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显：配置端契合银行表外资产回表诉求，交易端可捕捉低利率 环境下的波段机会与票息收益，在市场回归基本面、波动加大的背景下，成为平衡风险与收益的优 ...

| 代码 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 003029 吉大正元 | 28.41 | 1.54 | 5.73% | | 000543 皖能电力 | 8.80 | 0.42 | 5.01% | | 688027 国盾量子 | 524.94 | 20.90 | 4.15% | | 688561 奇安信-U | 35.42 | 0.86 | 2.49% | | 300757 | 217.62 | 4.62 | 2.17% | | 300520 科大国创 | 37.23 | 0.70 | 1.92% | | 002212 天融信 | 8.85 | 0.14 | 1.61% | 据ETO Markets的消息，2025年12月23日，沪深港三地市场携手高开，在全年成交额首次突破400万亿元 的历史纪录衬托下，A股迎来"收官周"的暖场戏。 国内商品指数刷新半年高位，与A股400万亿成交遥相呼应，共同勾勒出一幅"股期联动、通胀交易"的 跨年图景。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，在政策"稳中求进"与流动性合理充裕的组合下，A股有望延续"权重搭台、 题材唱戏"的结 ...

Domestic Economic Outlook - November high-frequency data generally weaker than seasonal trends, indicating a need for more growth-stabilizing policies to support early 2026 economic recovery[2] - October industrial enterprise profit growth fell to -5.5%, a significant drop from 21.6% and 20.4% in August and September respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand[21] - November PMI data shows manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating continued contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5[21] International Economic Insights - Revelio Labs predicts a loss of 9,000 non-farm jobs in the U.S. for October, primarily due to government employment declines from shutdowns[2] - December FOMC likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, with a hawkish outlook for future rate cuts in Q1 2026 due to inflation pressures[2] Asset Market Trends - Anticipated "spring rally" in the domestic market driven by technology growth, with potential buying opportunities in mid to late December[3] - U.S. AI and inflation trades are shifting from exclusion to resonance, suggesting a prolonged easing cycle to maintain the bull market until H2 2026[3] - December is expected to see hawkish rate cuts alongside rising interest rate expectations in Japan, leading to uncertainty in U.S. equities for the following month[3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Overall liquidity remains stable, with a slight increase in benchmark rates by approximately 0.79 basis points[23] - The central bank's open market operations have tightened, with a total reverse repo injection of 15,118 billion yuan for the week[23] Market Performance Overview - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53%[42] - Gold prices have surpassed 4,200, while crude oil experienced slight declines[40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a return of inflation trading, with consumer goods showing a positive trend in performance [1][8] - The overall industry size is significant, with a total market capitalization of 18,186 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,721.2 billion [1] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - Retail sales growth year-on-year is at 2.9%, with a slight recovery in October due to the holiday effect, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.16% [6] - The restaurant sector saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.8% in October, while jewelry sales surged by 37.6% [6][7] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating a gradual recovery in service consumption [7] Food and Beverage Sector - October inflation data exceeded expectations, with both CPI and PPI showing improvements, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for the food and beverage sector [8] - Companies like Haidilao and Anjuke are expected to perform well due to improved demand and operational strategies [9][10] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing stable overseas demand, with major brands like NIKE showing signs of recovery [12] - Recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers with optimized order structures and production efficiency [12] Tobacco Sector - The report recommends companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, highlighting their stable growth and market positioning [16] Home Appliances Sector - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods manufacturers like Midea Group, which has shown stable operational performance [17] Retail and E-commerce - The report notes a significant increase in e-commerce sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with a total sales growth of 14.2% [24] - Companies like JD.com are expected to maintain robust growth, with a projected non-GAAP net profit of 318 billion for 2025 [25] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, recommending companies like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio for their strong project pipelines [27] Agriculture Sector - The report indicates a rapid reduction in sow production capacity, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 [28]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at optimizing supply-demand structures and promoting inflation recovery, which has been strengthened since September 2025 [2][3][5] - The current market shows a clear high-low switching phenomenon, with cyclical industries such as coal, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals performing well [2][7] Key Points and Arguments Anti-Involution Policy - The anti-involution policy aims to clear supply first and stimulate demand later, optimizing the supply-demand structure to promote inflation recovery [3][6] - The policy has been increasingly enforced since September 2025, with a focus on regulating production behaviors and eliminating irrational competition [2][3][5] - Specific measures include supply-side constraints and governance of low-price competition in various sectors, including electronics and steel [5][6] Market Impact - The anti-involution policy is expected to have both short-term and long-term impacts on the equity market, with a positive catalyst effect on prices and performance over the next year [6] - The policy is anticipated to lead to a deeper adjustment of the capacity cycle over the next 3-5 years, similar to the supply-side structural reforms initiated in 2016 [6][8] Sector Performance - The cyclical industries benefiting from the anti-involution and inflation trading include non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, petrochemicals, and sectors like agriculture and logistics [2][11] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases due to capacity exits, while the wind power sector has seen an 18% increase in turbine prices [2][12] - In the lithium battery sector, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has doubled, and global energy storage demand is growing at over 50% [2][12] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is facing challenges with rising raw material prices but is expected to see a gradual recovery in steel prices and profits due to policy support [13][15][16] - Major companies like Baosteel and Hesteel are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, which supports advanced enterprises [3][14][16] Polyester and PTA Industry - The polyester and PTA industry is characterized by high concentration, with supply growth lagging behind demand growth, leading to a healthy supply-demand relationship [17][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is taking measures to potentially reduce production or curb new capacity, benefiting integrated companies [18] Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry has not seen new capacity since 2025, with demand growing rapidly at 24% in the first half of the year [19][20] - A recent meeting led by state-owned enterprises aims to reduce capacity by 30%, which could improve profitability and market concentration [20] Livestock Industry - The livestock industry has faced challenges, with pig prices dropping to a four-year low, leading to a shift towards capacity reduction [21][22] - Major companies are actively reducing production in response to policy adjustments [21] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector has implemented anti-involution measures, resulting in price increases across the industry [23][24] - Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express have reported increased revenue per shipment, indicating successful price adjustments [24][25][26] Recommendations - The conference recommends focusing on cyclical industries that benefit from tight supply and inflation trading logic, particularly in sectors like electric cells, metals, chemicals, agriculture, and transportation [10][11] - Specific express delivery companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, and ZTO Express are highlighted as having strong performance potential under the anti-involution policy [27]

Market Movements - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.04%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] - European indices also saw positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.81%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.39% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.92% to $63.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.93% to $66.97 per barrel [3][4] Economic Concerns - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising as President Trump attempts to influence the Fed and push for interest rate cuts, leading to increased inflation trading [5] - UBS warned of a 93% risk of recession in the US, describing the current economic state as "stable but high risk" [5] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, complicating the Fed's goal of achieving a 2% inflation rate [6] Company News - Tesla announced the public launch of its Robotaxi service, expanding from a limited user base to a broader audience [9] - Apple plans to launch an AI-driven search tool next year to compete with OpenAI, integrating it into Siri and potentially other platforms [9] - Salesforce reported Q2 revenue growth of 9.8% to $10.2 billion, but its Q3 revenue outlook is slightly below Wall Street expectations, causing a nearly 7% pre-market drop [10] - C3.ai's Q1 revenue fell to $70.3 million, down from $87.2 million year-over-year, leading to a pre-market drop of over 13% [11] - Figma's Q2 revenue growth of 41% to approximately $249.6 million was below analyst expectations, resulting in a pre-market decline of over 14% [11]

Market Movements - As of the report, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.04%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.81%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.39% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.92% to $63.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.93% to $66.97 per barrel [3][4] Economic Concerns - Wall Street is increasingly worried about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's attempts to influence it, with a 93% risk of recession indicated by UBS based on hard data from May to July 2025 [5] - UBS described the current economic situation as "stable but high risk," with credit market pressures raising the likelihood of recession to 41% [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari warned that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, complicating the Fed's goal of achieving a 2% inflation rate [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic supports a modest rate cut this year, contingent on future inflation and employment data [6] Gold Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that if the Fed's credibility is damaged, gold prices could soar, with a basic forecast of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and a tail risk scenario suggesting prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [6] Small-Cap Stocks - The rebound in U.S. small-cap stocks has stalled due to concerns over interest rate cuts not being sufficient to support heavily indebted companies [7] - Analysts are focusing on profitable small-cap companies that can thrive in uncertain environments [7] Company News - Tesla announced the public launch of its Robotaxi service, expanding from a limited user base to a broader audience [8] - Apple plans to launch an AI-driven search tool next year to compete with OpenAI, integrating it into Siri and potentially other platforms [8] - Salesforce reported Q2 revenue growth of 9.8% to $10.2 billion, slightly above expectations, but its Q3 revenue outlook is below Wall Street's average forecast [9] - C3.ai's Q1 revenue fell to $70.3 million, down from $87.2 million year-over-year, raising concerns about its financial health [10] - Figma's Q2 revenue growth of 41% to approximately $249.6 million was below analyst expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [10]

Group 1 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are increasing as President Trump attempts to influence the Fed and push for interest rate cuts [1][3] - Morgan Stanley's team indicates that market positions in stocks, bonds, and gold suggest investors are preparing for potential inflation due to Trump's actions [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts highlight growing worries about the credibility of U.S. institutions, which could lead to significant tail risks and a surge in commodity prices, including gold [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 under baseline scenarios, with potential peaks of $4,500 and nearly $5,000 if 1% of privately held U.S. debt shifts to gold [1] - Following Trump's public calls for lower borrowing costs, financial markets are increasingly betting on Fed rate cuts, with swap traders fully pricing in a September rate cut [3] - Investor concerns regarding the Fed's independence are reflected in the performance of value stocks, which tend to do better during periods of price pressure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in China's export data, indicating a high growth rate in July, influenced by lower base effects and rising raw material prices, while also noting a widening year-on-year decline in exports to the US, suggesting a cooling effect in the coming months [3][4] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in the open market, and interest rates for interbank deposits showing a decline, with 1Y AAA interbank deposit rates around 1.63% [3][4] Group 2 - In the primary market, there is an increase in subscription sentiment, with 52 bonds issued totaling 725.8 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 536.7 billion yuan, indicating improved market conditions compared to July [4] - The secondary market continues its recovery trend, with the 10Y government bond yield falling below 1.7%, driven by a favorable liquidity environment and the conclusion of negative factors from the political bureau meeting [5][6] Group 3 - The outlook for the market suggests that after a cooling of inflation trading, internal and external demand pressures will return to focus, which is favorable for the bond market, especially with new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [5][6] - The fiscal policy remains focused on implementing existing policies with limited potential for large-scale stimulus, which is beneficial for the bond market's recovery [5][6] - The monetary policy is characterized by a continuation of "moderate easing," with limited new policies expected, and the central bank showing willingness to maintain liquidity through various operations [6]