| 本期观点——铁矿石 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：澳洲和巴西铁矿发运3059.6万吨（环比+8.70%，同比+23.36%），铁矿 | | | | | 石45港口到港量2756.4万吨（环比+5.96%，同比-2.75%）。 | | | | | 需求：铁水日产227.43万吨（环比+0.85万吨，同比+2.23万吨 ），铁矿石45 | | | | | 港口疏港量325.21万吨（环比+3.22%，同比+2.18%）。 | 单边： | | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存15970.89万吨（环比+0.71%，同比+6.45%），247家 | 区间震荡 | 铁水超预 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存8949.54万吨（环比+0.97%，同比-9.25%）。 | | 期、宏观 | | | | 上方压力 | 超预期 | | | 总结：供应端，年末发运回升，到港量增加；下游铁水见底回升，整体呈现 | 800-810附 | | | | 供需双增格局。但港口库存依然高位，且环比仍有增加，对铁矿石后续走势 | 近 ...

12月31日盘中，螺纹钢期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至3114.00元。截止发稿，螺纹钢主力合约报 3123.00元，跌幅0.45%。 光大期货 预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主 螺纹钢期货主力小幅下跌0.45%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 国都期货 螺纹钢节前轻仓操作 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 钢材价格估计还将保持底部震荡 光大期货：预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主 据统计，2026年中天钢铁1-1期华东地区建材计划量折扣为螺纹5折(上期5.5折)，线材6折（上期6.5 折），盘螺6折（上期6.5折）。钢厂供应量有所下降，将在一定程度上缓解市场压力。目前螺纹市场矛 盾不大，但驱动也不强，市场情绪偏谨慎。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 国都期货：螺纹钢节前轻仓操作 五大钢材品种供应796.82万吨，周环比降幅0.1%，五大钢材总库存1257.99万吨，周环比降2.8%，五大 品种周消费量为833.61万吨，其中建材消费环比降3.2%，板材消费环比增1.4%。消息面，2026年国补对 象新增智能眼镜、智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。钢材供需趋于宽松，库存压力 或将开始累 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and the winter storage has not arrived yet. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, threaded rod production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major steel varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Threaded rod apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant drop in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. Recently, the sharp rebound in coal and coke prices has increased the cost support for the market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel products briefly fell below the oscillation range and then quickly rebounded. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [2] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the threaded rod and hot - rolled coil main contracts, as well as their spot prices, all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous week. For example, the threaded rod main contract closing price was 3126 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spread**: There were changes in the basis and spreads of various steel products. For example, the threaded rod main basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2] - **Production**: The production of threaded rods by national building material steel mills increased by 1.62% to 181.68 million tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.44% to 291.91 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties decreased, with the social inventory of the five major varieties dropping by 3.74% to 906.47 million tons [2] - **Apparent demand**: The overall apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 0.53% to 835.28 million tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel varieties decreased. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - festival restocking demand will also arrive later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management have been fully digested by the market [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [4] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 781.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.78% from the previous week. The prices of various iron ore powders at ports also changed to different extents [4][5] - **Basis and spread**: There were fluctuations in the basis and spreads of iron ore futures, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread increasing by 6.0 yuan/dry ton compared to the previous week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 3.41% to 1703.9 million tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 8.77% to 747.6 million tons [5] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.53% to 15512.63 million tons, while the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 1.52% to 1180.48 million tons [5] 3.3 Industry News - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining of mineral resources. As of now, inspections have been completed in Guangxi, Hubei, and other places [7] - As of the week of December 21st, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 million tons to 3464.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 million tons to 2814.7 million tons [7] - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 137.9 million tons to 2790.2 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports decreased by 76.7 million tons to 2646.7 million tons [7] - On the 22nd, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered their coke procurement prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Hebei market also lowered their coke procurement prices [8] - An alloy factory in Inner Mongolia's Chayouqianqi has successively ignited the first and second silicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces and plans to ignite the third before the Spring Festival in 2026 and the fourth after the Spring Festival [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Weekly Report 20251222 [2] - Report Type: Steel Industry Research - Analysts: Zhou Guisheng, Duan Yiwen [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with steel prices fluctuating. The profitability of steel mills remains low, iron - water production continues to decline, and there is a transfer of iron - water production. Although the demand for rebar has rebounded, it will still weaken in the off - season. The inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory still has pressure, with the fundamentals not improving and the end - user demand remaining weak. In the short term, the market will fluctuate [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Product Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar production increased, with the weekly production of major steel mills in the country reaching 181.68 tons (+2.9). Hot - rolled coil production decreased significantly, with a weekly production of 291.91 tons (-16.8) [5]. - **Demand**: Steel demand is seasonally weak. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 208.64 tons (+5.55), and that for hot - rolled coil was 298.28 tons (-13.69) [5]. - **Inventory**: Steel inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory is depleting at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory is 452.54 tons (-26.96), the social inventory is 313 tons (-25.7), and the steel - mill inventory is 139.54 tons (-1.26). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 390.72 tons (-6.37), the social inventory is 307.3 tons (-5.76), and the steel - mill inventory is 83.42 tons (-0.61) [5]. - **Basis**: The basis has narrowed. The basis of the rebar main contract is 181 yuan/ton (-29), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 1 yuan/ton (-7) [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.93%. Iron - water production continues to decline to 226.55 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate is 78.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The EAF operating rate is 69.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5%. The EAF capacity utilization rate is 54.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [5]. 2. Price Information - As of December 19, the average price of rebar in major cities across the country is 3325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average price of hot - rolled coils across the country is 3296 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Raw Material Analysis - The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1480 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1500 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 5), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 795 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 13) [19]. 4. Production - Related Data - Iron - water production continues to decline, while the EAF operating rate is rising. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has increased. As of December 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan is 92.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9% [22][32]. 5. Demand - Related Data - Rebar demand has rebounded, while hot - rolled coil demand has decreased significantly. As of December 19, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.92 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3.03 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production is 86.09 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 tons [42][48][53]. 6. Inventory Data - The inventory of main steel products has decreased. As of December 19, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.09 tons. The inventory of main steel products is 906.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.29 tons [57]. 7. Export and Downstream Industry Data - **Export**: In November, steel exports were 998 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.78 tons. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 183.03 tons [69]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles. Automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles. New - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [73]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to November, real - estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing construction area was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion area was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales volume was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 11.9% [76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and winter storage has not yet arrived. The implementation of the steel export licensing system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For steel, multi - orders can be held lightly and added in small quantities on dips. [2] - For iron ore, with the arrival of the off - season for consumption, iron ore demand is under pressure as steel mills cut production. The supply is at a high level, and port inventories are rising. The market should be treated with a shock mindset, and multi - orders can be held lightly for mid - term trading without chasing up or selling down. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, thread production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Thread apparent demand rebounded, while the apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. [2] - **Cost Support**: The sharp rebound in coking coal prices in recent days has increased the cost support for the futures market. [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract briefly fell below the shock range on the daily K - line chart and then rebounded quickly. It has not yet broken out of the recent shock range or formed a downward breakthrough. [2] - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold multi - orders lightly and add small quantities on dips. [2] - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes. The basis and spreads of various contracts also changed. The production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products showed different trends. For example, the production of thread steel increased by 1.62%, and the social inventory of thread steel decreased by 7.59%. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased last week. As the off - season for consumption arrives, iron ore demand is under pressure as steel mills cut production. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Chinese New Year. [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices. [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not yet broken out of the wide - range shock trend at a relatively high level. [4] - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold multi - orders lightly for mid - term trading. Treat the market with a shock mindset and avoid chasing up or selling down. [4] - **Data Summary**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore, basis, and spreads of various contracts, overseas shipments, shipping costs, exchange rates, port inventories, and other data showed different changes. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 2.56% compared with last week. [4] 3.3 Industry News - At the 2026 Steel Market Outlook and "My Steel" Annual Conference, it was proposed that the key to the steel industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and steel inventory control should be in line with the 2021 level. [6] - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicted that China's steel consumption in 2025 may be 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%, and the demand in 2026 may be 800 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. [6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses of coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin from 170 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton, effective from the JM2701 contract. [6] - The inventory of manganese - silicon enterprises increased, while the inventory of silicon - iron enterprises decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased, and iron ore port inventories increased. [7][8] - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency response. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with high inventory pressure. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market. For steel, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and consider reducing or closing positions if a new downward trend forms. Do not short at the current position [2]. - For iron ore, demand is expected to decline as steel production decreases with the arrival of the off - season, and supply is at a high level with rising port inventories. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading, and approach it with a range - bound mindset without chasing highs or lows [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is still significantly higher than the historical average, while the de - stocking pressure for threaded rods is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, indicating a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the passing of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. The sharp drop in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel is still in a range - bound trend. After a significant gap - down opening, it rebounded but has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. If the market continues to fall and forms a new downward trend, consider reducing or closing positions. Do not short at the current position [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as most spot prices, have declined compared to last week. The blast furnace operating rate, average daily hot metal output, and the proportion of profitable steel mills have all decreased. The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has declined, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products has decreased, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils in steel mills has increased. The apparent demand has declined, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has decreased [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts are putting pressure on raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is suppressing futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, putting relatively greater pressure on iron ore [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range trading pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading. Approach it with a range - bound mindset and avoid chasing highs or lows [5]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement prices of most iron ore contracts and spot prices have declined compared to last week. The shipment volume from Australia has increased, while that from Brazil has decreased. The arrival volume at northern ports has decreased, the average daily port clearance volume has decreased slightly, and the total port inventory has increased. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In early December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1869 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 186.9 million tons (a 2.8% increase in daily output month - on - month); 1714 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 171.4 million tons (a 3.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month); and 1829 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 182.9 million tons (a 12.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2928.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.9 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2723.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 242.9 million tons; and at six northern ports, it was 1358.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.8 million tons [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3592.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 224.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2965.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 2052.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 85.2 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1702.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113.9 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 912.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.0 million tons [7].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华安期货投研 核心观点： 本周五大材库存继续环降 2.45%至 1332.09 万吨，创今年春节以来最低，产量环比减少 2.74%至 806.22 万吨，表观需求续降至 839.72 万吨为近年来同期最低位，环比降幅达 2.83%。具体来看，螺纹钢周产 量环降 5.56%，库存降幅达 4.81%，表需降幅扩大至 6.4%；线材表需降幅收窄至 3.94%；热卷表需环比 降幅同样收窄至 0.92%，其钢厂库存环增 5.14%；中厚板表需环降逾 4%；仅冷轧表需环增 2.54%，其 产量亦增加 0.92%。 目前，宏观短期有预期支撑，但基本面产业数据一般，钢材供需双弱格局不变，其中螺纹减产加速，供 需关系有所改善，叠加库存持续下降，螺纹支撑增强。热卷供需数据变化不大，供需宽松，库存高位压 力不减。综合来看，上下驱动均不强，难走较大趋势行情，预计钢价震荡偏弱走势。 后市展望：震荡偏弱 | 钢材 | 观点 | 分析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 五大材产量 | 偏躲 | 本周 Mysteel 统计分五大材产量周度产量合计为806. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing a situation of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices fluctuating in the short - term. There are expectations for macro policies, but the improvement in the fundamental situation is limited [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 1.8931 million tons (-167,700 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.1431 million tons (-47,000 tons). Rebar production decreased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production remained at a high level despite the decline [5][36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1698 million tons (-109,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.1486 million tons (-53,600 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.0381 million tons (-266,700 tons), social inventory was 3.6113 million tons (-236,200 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4268 million tons (-40,500 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.0035 million tons (-5,500 tons), social inventory was 3.2043 million tons (-24,500 tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7992 million tons (+19,000 tons) [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 133 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 20 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton) [8][14]. - **Summary**: The steel mill profitability rate was 36.36%, a 1.3% week - on - week increase. The iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 80.16%, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.72%, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.82%, a 1.09% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 5, the average rebar price in major domestic cities was 3,326 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase, and the average hot - rolled coil price was 3,328 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [11]. 3.2. Raw Materials - **Raw Material Price**: The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,505 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [17]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of December 5, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.93% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, and the iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.51%, a 2.43% week - on - week increase [21][30]. 3.3. Market Demand - **Building Steel**: As of December 5, the weekly average building steel trading volume was 99,000 tons, remaining at a low level [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: As of December 5, the weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,700 tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production was 855,200 tons, a 7,600 - ton week - on - week increase [48]. 3.4. Inventory - **Overall Steel Inventory**: As of December 5, the Tangshan billet inventory was 541,600 tons, a 18,100 - ton week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of major steel products was 9.7826 million tons, a 293,500 - ton week - on - week decrease [52]. - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 276,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 236,200 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 40,500 tons [55]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 5,500 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 24,500 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 19,000 tons. The overall hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level [60]. 3.5. External Market - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [65]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase, and new - energy vehicle sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing starts was 19.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion was 16.9%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 6.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales was 9.6%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 9.7% [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar are improving, while the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils has slowed down. At the end of the week, the raw material side faced downward pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. Although steel prices are currently under pressure from raw materials and are expected to weaken in the short term, the overall decline is limited. Iron ore and coking coal are also under pressure and are expected to continue their weak performance [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The fundamentals of rebar continued to improve, and the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down. The overall contradiction in finished products was limited. At the end of the week, the raw material side declined under pressure, slightly dragging down the finished products. The weekly steel prices still showed a relatively strong overall trend [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production decreasing. The national rebar weekly output was 189.31 tons (down 8.14% week-on-week and 14.91% year-on-year). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 314.31 tons (down 1.47% week-on-week and 0.85% year-on-year). The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both decreased month-on-month [15][21][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased week-on-week. The rebar profit was +34 yuan/ton (up 46 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 1 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the hot-rolled coil profit was -22 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 49 yuan/ton year-on-year) [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both showed a slight decline. The apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 4.81% week-on-week and 8.70% year-on-year), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 314.86 tons (down 1.67% week-on-week and 0.70% year-on-year) [35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased at an accelerated pace, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The inventory reduction of hot-rolled coils slowed down, with a slight decrease in social inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory [39][44]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both commercial housing sales and the land market showed a month-on-month decline. In the automotive sector, production and sales in October continued to increase both month-on-month and year-on-year [48][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrival volume continued to decline month-on-month. The iron ore price index was 107.04 (up 0.77% week-on-week and 0.71% year-on-year), the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2655.3 tons (down 4% week-on-week and up 4.7% year-on-year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2480.5 tons (down 8.11% week-on-week and 1.46% year-on-year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons week-on-week and 0.31 tons year-on-year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 318.45 tons (down 3.67% week-on-week and 1.52% year-on-year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory continued to increase, and the steel enterprises' iron ore inventory also increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15300.81 tons (up 0.60% week-on-week and 1.22% year-on-year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 0.47% week-on-week and down 4.13% year-on-year) [70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased slightly month-on-month, but the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a relatively high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.59% (down 0.48% week-on-week and 6.14% year-on-year), and the daily average of Mongolian coal customs clearance was 19.08 tons (down 3.75% week-on-week and up 139% year-on-year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was +30 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton week-on-week and up 21 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.64% (up 0.86% week-on-week and down 1.48% year-on-year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the coking plant inventory decreased slightly. The coking coal inventory in independent coking plants was 857.26 tons (down 0.43% week-on-week and up 4.26% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 296.5 tons (up 0.68% week-on-week and down 34.68% year-on-year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory decreased simultaneously. The coke inventory in independent coking plants was 44.69 tons (down 1.15% week-on-week and 0.47% year-on-year), and the port inventory of coke was 181.3 tons (down 3.26% week-on-week and up 7.79% year-on-year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week and 60 yuan/ton year-on-year), and the ex-factory price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Handan was 1490 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton week-on-week and 170 yuan/ton year-on-year) [102]. 05 Spread Analysis The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coils also shrank. The coil-to-rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1-5 spread of iron ore shrank slightly [104][108].

Market Overview - This week, the black sector entered the contract roll - over period. The main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coking coal were switched to the May contracts. The market showed mixed trends. The main contract of rebar rose 1.3% this week, hot - rolled coil rose 1%, iron ore fell 1%, coke rose 0.7%, and coking coal fell 1% [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both decreased, but their inventory performances were significantly different. Rebar destocking was normal, while hot - rolled coil destocking remained difficult and faced certain pressure. Pig iron output continued to decline. In December, many steel mills carried out maintenance and shutdowns, which had a greater impact on construction steel. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, and the driving force for basis repair was limited. Next week, the economic work conference will be held, and the content of the conference should be noted [2]. Steel Production Monthly Data (October 2025) | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel Products | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] Weekly Data (December 5, 2025) | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 189310 | - 16770 | - 3% | 216980 | - 10960 | - 6% | 503800 | - 27670 | 13.84% | | Wire Rod | 80010 | - 2160 | - 7% | 83000 | - 7610 | - 8% | 101630 | - 2810 | 15% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 314310 | - 4700 | 1% | 314860 | - 5360 | 1% | 400350 | - 550 | 31% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 85520 | 760 | 1.73% | 87480 | 1380 | 0.96% | 167680 | - 1960 | 18.69% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 159820 | - 3890 | 4.53% | 162030 | - 1280 | 4.39% | 192120 | - 2230 | 5.41% | | Total | 828950 | - 26760 | - 0.13% | 864000 | - 24000 | - 1.15% | 1366000 | - 35220 | 17.71% | [5] Steel Production Profit (December 4, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 112, 5 | 20, 0 | - 101, 0 | 114, 10 | | North China | 74, - 5 | 33, 0 | - 51, 0 | 19, 5 | | Central China | 175, 0 | 186, 5 | 55, 5 | 65, - 10 | [20] Steel Demand Building Materials Consumption - The cumulative year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 8%, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 17% [27]. - The marginal improvement of cement outbound volume was observed. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 25%. The concrete shipment volume increased month - on - month, and the absolute level was comparable to the same period last year. Currently, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 8% [30]. Coil Consumption - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year. After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36]. Steel Inventory Rebar Inventory - The rebar basis remained stable this week with limited fluctuations. After November, the basis usually weakens. In the past, the basis convergence stage was usually characterized by the upward oscillation of the futures market. Currently, the rebar output was lower than the same period last year. It was expected that the inventory would enter the normal destocking stage later, the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the basis was expected to remain stable [50]. Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable but showed a weakening trend. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory remained stable, and the inventory in East China decreased slightly. The recent difficult destocking of hot - rolled coil exerted certain pressure on the spot market, leading to the weakening of the basis [54]. Spread Analysis - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar slightly declined from near the flat - water level this week. The recent decline in rebar inventory and the decrease in the year - on - year inventory growth rate were beneficial for the spread to go positive. After the main contract roll - over of rebar was completed, the inventory in East China was still high, and the 1 - 5 spread might have some room to weaken [60]. - The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil slightly weakened and re - entered the contango structure. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the spread [64]. Strategy Suggestion - Currently, steel lacks obvious market - driving factors. After entering the off - season of demand, macro - events and expectations are usually important sources of market logic. However, the current policy environment is rather calm and difficult to boost the market. From the fundamental perspective, apart from the production cuts and restrictions of steel mills in December, there is also a lack of upward - driving factors. The high inventory of hot - rolled coil creates a downward - driving force, but the overall demand for coils is not bad. Therefore, the current contradictions are limited, and the market lacks themes for directional trading, and may continue to fluctuate within a range. This week, steel prices rose to near the previous high, and the room for further upward movement may be rather limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of decline [2].