Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the social financing increased slightly year-on-year, mainly supported by the earlier issuance and higher net financing scale of government bonds compared to the same period in 2025. The credit performance was in line with market expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in January for the first time since 2018. Both corporate and household medium - and long - term loans were weak, relying mainly on short - term loans. It is expected that this month's social financing will have little impact on the bond market, and it is recommended to continuously track high - frequency credit indicators [1][5][30] Summary by Related Content Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1654 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Direct financing supported the social financing, with a year - on - year increase of 3228 billion yuan to 1.51 trillion yuan. On the contrary, on - balance - sheet financing dragged down the social financing, with a year - on - year decrease of 2334 billion yuan to 4.95 trillion yuan, while off - balance - sheet financing increased slightly year - on - year [1][7] - Among direct financing, government bonds had a net financing scale of 1.18 trillion yuan in January 2026, a year - on - year increase of 2831 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Corporate bonds increased by 579 billion yuan year - on - year to 5033 billion yuan, the second - highest since 2020 [12] RMB Credit Situation - In January 2026, RMB credit decreased by 4200 billion yuan year - on - year to 4.71 trillion yuan, the first year - on - year decrease in the "good start" month since 2018. The corporate sector decreased by 3300 billion yuan year - on - year, while the household sector increased slightly by 127 billion yuan year - on - year [2][16] - In the corporate sector, only short - term corporate loans increased by 3100 billion yuan year - on - year to 2.05 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 2800 billion yuan year - on - year to 3.18 trillion yuan, with the growth rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 7.58%. Bill financing decreased by 3690 billion yuan year - on - year to - 8739 billion yuan, and the growth rate of bill financing balance dropped to 9.17% [2][19] Money Supply and Deposit Situation - Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (falling in February), the cash - withdrawal demand of residents and enterprises in January was low, resulting in limited growth of M0 and a significant drop in the M0 growth rate to 2.7% [3][24] - In January 2026, the growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, rising from 3.8% and 8.5% in December 2025 to 4.9% and 9% respectively. The maturity of a large amount of time deposits and the increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement surplus may have contributed to the rebound of M1 and M2 [4][24] - In January 2026, corporate deposit increments were significantly higher than the same period in previous years, while household deposit increments were lower. Fiscal deposit increments were also higher than the same period in previous years, possibly due to the higher net financing scale of government bonds. Non - bank deposit increments were high because the stock market was still rising, attracting funds into the market [5][26]

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the financial industry, suggesting a "Leading" rating for the sector over the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to be attractive compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan, with household loans increasing by 456.5 billion yuan, showing a marginal recovery in demand [4][5]. - The total social financing (社融) in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.66 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by fiscal efforts and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival [4][5]. - M1 and M2 growth rates accelerated in January, with M1 increasing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0%, indicating improved liquidity in the market [4][5]. - The report highlights a shift in deposit structure, with total new RMB deposits reaching 8.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion yuan, although household deposits saw a decrease [4][5]. Summary by Sections Credit and Social Financing Data - New RMB loans in January 2026: 47,100 million yuan, down 4,200 million yuan year-on-year [5]. - Household loans: 4,565 million yuan, up 127 million yuan year-on-year; short-term loans increased by 1,594 million yuan [5]. - Corporate loans: 44,500 million yuan, down 3,300 million yuan year-on-year; short-term loans increased by 3,100 million yuan [5]. - Total new social financing: 72,200 million yuan, up 1,662 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Deposit Trends - New RMB deposits: 80,900 million yuan, up 37,700 million yuan year-on-year; household deposits decreased by 33,900 million yuan [5]. - Corporate deposits increased by 28,160 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Monetary Supply Growth - M1 growth rate: 4.9%, ending a three-month decline; M2 growth rate: 9.0%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4].

证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 社融同比增速放缓，权益基金发行回暖 ——流动性周报 2 月第 3 期 2026 年 02 月 24 日 策略周报 研究所： 风险提示：历史数据仅供参考，样本代表性不足的风险，数据处理统计 方法可能存在误差，基于主观认知划分产生的偏差，外部环境变化影响 结论适用性，指标选取不全面风险。 相关报告 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 《流动性周报 1 月第 3 期：宏观资金均衡偏松，ETF 继续大幅净流出*赵阳》——2026-01-28 袁野》——2026-01-26 1. 本周（2026/02/09-2026/02/13，下同）宏观资金面均衡偏松，央行通 过公开市场操作开展逆回购净投放 12089 亿元，开展 10000 亿元 6 个月 买断式逆回购操作。资金价格方面，短端利率、长端利率均小幅下行， 期限利差有所走阔。2026 年 1 月社融规模增量大幅上升至 72208 亿元， 存量同比增长 8.2%，较 2025 年 12 月增速下降 10BP。结构上，新增人 ...

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Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing (社融) increased by 7.2 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2 trillion RMB[7] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 9.0% year-on-year[7] - Government bonds and undiscounted bills were the main supports for the increase in social financing[7] Group 2: Loan Trends - Both medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease, while short-term loans increased for both sectors[7] - New loans in January amounted to 4.7 trillion RMB, a decrease of 0.4 trillion RMB year-on-year[7] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Liquidity - M1 and M2 both showed a year-on-year increase, with M1 at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0%[7] - Non-bank deposits continued to increase, indicating a trend towards liquidity in deposits[7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year-on-year growth of social financing may face downward pressure as the base increases towards July, but is expected to remain above 7%[7] - The central bank is likely to maintain a loose liquidity stance, with M2 expected to stay above 7%[7] Group 5: Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially affecting credit growth and social financing[9] - Uncertainties regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could impact China's monetary policy[9]

Financial Data Overview - In January 2026, new social financing (社融) reached 72,200 billion RMB, an increase of 1,654 billion RMB year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, slightly down from 8.3% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans from financial institutions amounted to 47,100 billion RMB, a decrease of 4,200 billion RMB compared to the previous year[4] Loan Structure and Trends - In January, the structure of new loans showed that long-term loans to households increased by 3,469 billion RMB, down 1,466 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased by 1,097 billion RMB, up 1,594 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate long-term loans decreased by 2,800 billion RMB year-on-year, while short-term loans increased significantly by 3,100 billion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth rate was 9.0%, up from 8.5% in the previous month, while M1 growth rate rose to 4.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points[5] - In January, RMB deposits increased by 80,900 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37,700 billion RMB, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions[5] Market Dynamics and Implications - The government bond net financing in January was 9,764 billion RMB, up 2,831 billion RMB year-on-year, serving as a core support for social financing[3] - The active stock market has contributed to the increase in M2 growth, indicating a potential shift in capital flows towards equity investments[11] Economic Outlook - The weak "opening red" effect of credit growth suggests that the anticipated recovery in the real estate market may not meet expectations[16] - The demand for medium- to long-term loans remains weak, indicating ongoing concerns about economic recovery and internal demand[10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1,450 billion yuan reverse repo operation on February 13, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,135 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 315 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [3][5] - In February, the central bank has conducted a total of 18,000 billion yuan in reverse repos, with a net injection of 600 billion yuan after considering 12,000 billion yuan in maturing repos, marking an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous month [3] Group 2: Market Liquidity - The interbank market is experiencing a very loose liquidity environment, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 declining nearly 10 basis points to a low of 1.26%, and similar declines observed in DR007 and DR014 [5] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.65% [6] Group 3: Financial Instruments - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.58%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [8] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds increased by 0.04%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts decreased by 0.10%, 0.09%, and 0.03% respectively [13] Group 4: Credit and Financing Data - In January, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a total social financing scale of 449.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [14] - The M2 money supply grew by 9% year-on-year, while M1 and M0 increased by 4.9% and 2.7% respectively, with a net cash injection of 519.1 billion yuan in January [14] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the importance of state-owned enterprises in contributing to high-quality economic development and social responsibility [14] - Recent notices from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges address inaccuracies in investor education regarding bond repurchase agreements, outlining regulatory requirements and deadlines for rectification [15]

Group 1 - The total financing volume is sufficient, but the quality of the "opening red" is lacking, with social financing showing a year-on-year increase driven mainly by government bonds and discounted bills [2][4] - In January, the net financing scale of government bonds rose to 976.4 billion yuan, benefiting from the timing of the Spring Festival, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [4] - The demand for loans at the beginning of the year is weak, with banks showing strong demand for bills, leading to a significant increase in discounted bills to 629.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.9 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - M1 and M2 growth rates rebounded in January, with M1 increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 4.9%, driven by the maturity of high-interest deposits and a low base effect from the previous year [3][7] - M2 growth rate rose to 9% in January, with fiscal deposits increasing by 1.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan [7] - The difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 4.1%, indicating an increase in the liquidity of funds [7] Group 3 - In January, new RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in the structure of loans [6] - Household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan, with short-term loans showing a year-on-year increase of 159.4 billion yuan, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 146.6 billion yuan [6] - Corporate loans increased by 4.45 trillion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 2.05 trillion yuan, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 280 billion yuan [6]