文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 12 月，受基数、政策前倾等因素影响，内需依然偏弱。但针对 2026 年的经济运行，扩内需政策在陆 续出台，预计开年内需将回升。 首先，从四季度 GDP 增速来看，四季度在基数走高、政策前倾等因素影响下，工业生产、建筑业、地产批 零及金融业增速回落，预计 GDP 增速降至 4.3% 左右，全年实现 5% 左右的 GDP 增长。 但， 2025 年四 季度 GDP 增速与 2026 年目标相比预计偏低， 1 季度扩内需的必要性较强。 其次，内需读数来看，社零与固投 12 月或依然偏弱。预计 12 月社零 1% 左右，全年固投 -3.3% 左右。 但， 1 月初两新政策已出台，叠加元旦、春节假期较长，有望带动社零增速回升。 1 月提前下达提前批"两 重"建设项目清单和中央预算内投资计划 2950 亿元，同时发改委近期批复或核准多个重大基础设施项目， 总投资超过 4000 亿元， 1 季度固投增速有望转正。 再次，外需依然偏强。预计 12 月出口增速在 3.5% 左右。 需要重视的 ...

Economic Indicators - As of November, M0 balance reached 13.74 trillion yuan, increasing by approximately 0.19 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%[2] - M1 balance stood at 112.89 trillion yuan, up by 0.89 trillion yuan from the previous month, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points compared to last month[2] - M2 balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.86 trillion yuan month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Financing Trends - The total social financing stock was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month[2] - New RMB loans in November amounted to 405.3 billion yuan, while new foreign currency loans were -22.2 billion yuan, totaling 383.1 billion yuan in new loans, which is 90.1 billion yuan less than the previous year[2] - New corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan, and new corporate stock financing was 34.2 billion yuan, totaling 451.1 billion yuan in corporate direct financing, an increase of 168.3 billion yuan year-on-year[2] Deposit Growth - Corporate deposit growth slowed to 3.63% in November, down from 3.79% the previous month, with a total corporate deposit balance of 79.34 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.65 trillion yuan[2] - Resident deposit growth decreased to 9.56%, down 0.13 percentage points from the previous month, with a total resident deposit balance of 163.31 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.67 trillion yuan[2] - Non-bank financial institutions' deposits grew by 0.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.09%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points from the previous month[2]

Group 1: Financing Trends - In November, social financing (社融) increased by nearly 160 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate direct financing and off-balance-sheet financing[3] - Corporate direct financing rose by over 100 billion yuan, primarily due to the expansion of the sci-tech bond market, which saw net financing of 182.3 billion yuan in November, an increase of 100 billion yuan year-on-year[15] - Off-balance-sheet financing also increased by over 100 billion yuan, largely attributed to the upcoming implementation of revised trust company regulations[15] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Dynamics - In November, RMB loans decreased by 190 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak demand for loans and a supply-side contraction due to financial institutions' "anti-involution" measures[4] - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 100 billion yuan, indicating a rise in short-term operational funding needs, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 40 billion yuan year-on-year[22] - Resident deposits showed a significant reduction, with both household and corporate deposits declining year-on-year, indicating a trend of deleveraging among residents[26] Group 3: Monetary Supply Metrics - M2 growth rate fell to 8% in November, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points[26] - The decline in M1 and M2 growth rates is attributed to reduced "loan creation deposits" and limited fiscal fund injections, with non-bank financial institution deposits also showing a year-on-year decrease[26] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The overall financial data for November indicates persistent weakness in private sector financing demand, with potential positive impacts from new policy financial tools expected to gradually materialize[6] - The high base effect from government bond financing is likely to continue to weigh on social financing growth, which may stabilize or slightly decline in the near term[6] - Risks include unexpected changes in the economic environment and policy adjustments that could significantly impact market financing demand and liquidity conditions[7]

Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment is overall balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 6047 billion yuan through open market operations, including a 47 billion yuan net injection from 7-day reverse repos and a 6000 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repo [3][9][10] - The social financing scale increased significantly in November, reaching 24885 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month. The main contributors were government bonds and corporate bonds, while non-standard financing turned positive [10][11][14] - The money supply indicators M1 and M2 continued to decline year-on-year, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 8% in November, both showing a decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [10][11][14] Group 2 - The supply side of the stock market shows structural differentiation, with a decline in equity fund issuance and a slight recovery in financing balance, indicating an increase in leveraged funds' participation. The net inflow of financing was concentrated in sectors like electronics and defense, while sectors like computers and automobiles experienced net outflows [4][19][30] - The stock market's demand side pressure has eased, with a decrease in equity financing scale and a drop in the scale of locked-up shares released, amounting to 414.42 billion yuan, down from 786.35 billion yuan the previous week [30][35][39] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in November was 238.1 million, an increase from 230.9 million in the previous month, indicating a slight uptick in market participation [19][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.4%. New social financing scale was 2.4885 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.2% to 8.0% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of M1 under the new caliber dropped from 6.2% to 4.9%. Overall, credit performance in November was weak, off - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented, with the household sector being the main drag. The "shopping festival" effect had limited impact, and the marginal effect of the real estate sprint weakened. Social financing growth was maintained due to corporate bond issuance, and the M2 growth rate declined slightly, with non - bank deposits and household deposits all decreasing year - on - year [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit: The household sector performed averagely, and the corporate sector was relatively better - **Household sector**: In November, household short - term loans decreased by 215.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 178.8 billion yuan, remaining significantly below the seasonal level. The "shopping festival" effect on household consumption was limited. Household medium - and long - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, slightly recovering from the previous month but still 290 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The real estate sales sprint had limited results, and the second - hand housing market continued to decline [2][10]. - **Corporate sector**: In November, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 40 billion yuan. The pull of policy - based financial instruments was limited, and it was the economic "off - season" at the end of the year, so it was difficult for corporate medium - and long - term loans to have significant increments. Corporate short - term loans were close to the seasonal level, and on - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented. Bill financing increased by 334.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 211.9 billion yuan. The demand for low - price "ticket grabbing" was limited [2][11][18]. 3.2 Social Financing: Government bonds had a high base at the end of the year, and corporate bonds increased - **Government bonds**: In November, the issuance scale of government bonds increased, with new government bonds reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan. In December, affected by the base effect, the net financing of government bonds was expected to be 0.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate might fall to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][22]. - **Corporate bonds and entrusted loans**: After the policy - based financial instruments were fully disbursed, entrusted loans turned negative, with a decrease of 18.8 billion yuan in November. November was the "peak season" for corporate bond issuance, with new corporate bonds reaching 416.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 178.8 billion yuan. Some enterprises replaced loans with bonds after the bond yields dropped significantly in October [3][25][28]. 3.3 Deposits: M1 growth rate declined, and non - bank deposits weakened - **M1**: The new - caliber M1 increased less month - on - month compared with the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 gap widened slightly. In November, the new - caliber M1 increased by 893.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped from 6.2% to 4.9% [4][27]. - **M2 components**: Non - bank deposits grew more slowly, and household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. In November, non - bank deposits increased by 80 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 100 billion yuan; household deposits increased by 670 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 billion yuan. The process of household deposits moving to non - bank deposits slowed down during the volatile adjustment of the equity market since November [4][34].

11 月社融存量增速持平于 8.5% 11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿，同比多增 1597 亿；较过去五年同期均值 2.3 万亿相比，今年 11 月新增社融规模与历史均 值相差不算大，落在过去五年同期新增规模的上沿。社融存量增速本月短暂持稳于 10 月水平，依然为 8.5%。 表外融资是本月社融同比多增的主要贡献项之一，企业债券是本月社融多增的另一支撑项 11 月表外融资项中的信托贷款、未贴现银票均同比多增，对社融形成支撑。2020 年以来 11 月新增信托贷款规模均较 10 月回落，本月走势反季节性，或与近期落地的新型政策性金融工具支持项目有关。此外，11 月企业债券新增 1788 亿至 4169 亿，新增规模为 2020 年以来同期新高，是直接融资项目中唯一多增的一项，也对社融形成支撑。 社融总量和信贷结构走势分化 虽然 11 月社融总体表现不差，但 11 月信贷仍然偏弱。其中企业部门信贷同比多增 3600 亿至 6100 亿，主要发力项是 企业短贷和票融，企业中长贷同比少增；居民部门信贷更是历史上同期首次负增长。 新增企业中长贷为 2016 年以来同期新低。今年企业部门信贷同比多增的原因之一在于 202 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding the market average expectation of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan[3] - The total social financing scale for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[3] - The growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Breakdown - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28 trillion yuan[3] - Corporate loans increased by 4.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline[3] - Government bond financing reached 1.2 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan[4] Group 3: Market Trends and Implications - The corporate financing environment improved, as indicated by the BCI index rising to 52.50 in November from 52.41 in October[4] - The demand for residential loans remains weak, with short-term loans decreasing by 178.8 billion yuan and long-term loans decreasing by 290 billion yuan[3] - Policy-driven financial tools are beginning to show effects, particularly in infrastructure investment, which may influence corporate financing demand in the upcoming quarters[6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for November indicates a notable improvement in corporate financing demand, with the initial effects of policy financial tools becoming evident. However, the residential sector remains a significant shortcoming, primarily due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [4][11]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [1][5]. - The increase in real credit was 405.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The decline was primarily driven by a reduction in residential loans [6][7]. - Corporate loans remained strong, aligning with the high BCI corporate financing environment index for November, indicating a shift in bank assessments towards corporate sectors due to weak residential loan demand [2][7]. Group 2: Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan, with expectations for December financing to remain around 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - Corporate bond financing increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, driven by policy encouragement for technology finance and lower financing costs [8][9]. Group 3: Trust and Other Financing Instruments - The amount of undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 149 billion yuan, reflecting a significant expansion in bank bill issuance, likely influenced by lower interest rates [9]. - Trust loans increased by 84.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.3 billion yuan, partly due to the spillover effects of policy financial tools on infrastructure financing [9]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued downward trend following a peak in September [10]. - M2 growth was recorded at 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to reduced credit generation [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The main highlight of the November financial data is the improvement in corporate financing demand, with a need to monitor the impact of policy financial tools in the upcoming quarters, especially in the construction sector [4][11].

研究所 股市波动加大 债市震荡偏弱 2025-12-17 ----国信期货金融周报 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 研究所 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 中证500高位回 落。 国债期货回落。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 上证50、沪深 300高位震荡。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 成交额回落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500成交额， 中证1000成交额维 持低量。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.9% in the penultimate week of November, marking the largest weekly decline of the year, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of the bull market [1]. Market Phases - The bull market typically progresses through three phases: 1. **Policy Bottom**: Characterized by the government easing monetary policy and introducing favorable measures, despite poor economic data and corporate earnings. This phase sees high volatility as the market reacts to policy changes without fundamental support [2]. 2. **Fundamental Bottom**: In this phase, the effects of policies begin to positively impact the real economy, leading to improved corporate earnings and a simultaneous rise in valuations, resulting in a strong upward market trend [2]. 3. **Sentiment Top**: This phase occurs when economic growth slows, corporate earnings stagnate, and policies may tighten, yet market enthusiasm drives valuations to bubble levels [2]. Current Market Stage - The current market is likely at the end of the first phase and the beginning of the second phase, indicated by increasing activity in M1 and a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI, which are positive signals. However, the improvement in the real economy is not yet comprehensive, with only "point-like" improvements observed in certain sectors like technology, while traditional industries and real estate remain weak [3]. - The upward potential in the second phase is significant, and despite the index reaching 3,800 points, the overall market performance this year has been strong, with positive expectations for the next year [3]. Investment Opportunities - The market has shown significant divergence this year, with sectors related to technology and external demand performing well, while those tied to consumption and domestic demand have lagged. This disparity in investment returns highlights the importance of sector selection [3]. - Investors are encouraged to either continuously learn and adapt to market changes or to focus on their areas of expertise, as both strategies can yield substantial returns over time [3][4].