Group 1: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 5.219 million barrels [1] - U.S. domestic crude oil production rose by 0.07 million barrels to 13.408 million barrels per day [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran has achieved a complete nuclear fuel cycle, indicating potential long-term oversupply in the global crude oil market if OPEC+ continues to increase production, which could exert downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Methanol Market Insights - China's methanol port sample inventory stands at 581,000 tons, increasing by 58,000 tons week-on-week; production enterprise inventory is at 370,500 tons, up by 15,500 tons [1] - The market price for methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, is 2,302 yuan/ton, rising by 27 yuan/ton; operating rate is at 87.19%, up by 0.22% [1] - The forecast for methanol September contract indicates short-term fluctuations with resistance at 2,270 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait-and-see or short position strategy [1] Group 3: Chlor-alkali Market Overview - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda is stable at 880 yuan/ton; chlor-alkali profit is at 681 yuan/ton [1] - Weekly production capacity utilization for caustic soda is at 84.1%, up by 1.5% [1] - The forecast for caustic soda September contract suggests short-term fluctuations with resistance at 2,365 yuan/ton, recommending a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 4: Iron Ore Market Trends - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.423 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments amounted to 28.688 million tons, with Australian shipments at 19.205 million tons, down by 0.927 million tons [1] - The forecast for iron ore prices indicates a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and expected supply recovery, with a reference pressure level of 750 yuan/ton [1]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍 生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间 2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关 税仍将维持在25%。评：避险情绪再度增加，利多黄金，但是美 元指数大幅反弹，有所抵消。地缘政治和关税博弈变数增加， 避险需求增加，黄金短期偏多。黄金中期依然高位震荡对待， 关注关税矛盾是否进一步激化。 【短评-橡胶】泰国胶水大跌，下跌4.75泰铢/公斤至56.5 泰铢/公斤；版纳原料下跌，制干胶胶水下跌0.1-0.2元/公斤至 12.5-12.6元/公斤，制浓乳胶水下跌0.1元/公斤至12.8-12.9元 /公斤；海南原料持稳。割胶工作还未完全恢复，原料产出偏 紧，国营胶水收购价为13900元/吨，民营胶水收购价为14900- 15300元/吨；截至2025年5月29日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利 用率为72.51%，环比-1.23个百分点，同比-7.58个百分点；中 国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为60.80%，环比-1.29个百分点， 同比-4.40个百分点。评：国内现货价格持续走低，带动原料价 格整体下滑 ...

日本央行：市场流动性相应收紧，尤其是在超长期债券市场，供需失衡情况显著。 ...

Core Insights - The decline in apartment construction has exacerbated housing challenges for young Australians, who are already struggling to enter the housing market [1][3] - The "Australian Dream" of owning a home has become increasingly unattainable for those born after 1990 without financial support [3] - Residential approvals fell by 5.7% in April to 14,633 units, primarily due to a 19% drop in approvals for non-detached housing [3][6] Housing Market Dynamics - The approval rate for private sector detached homes increased by 3.1%, but this was insufficient to offset the decline in apartment approvals [3][6] - The median house price has risen over 30% since the pandemic, while rental vacancy rates remain near historical lows [6] - The construction of affordable housing suitable for first-time buyers has not kept pace with market demand, leading to a challenging situation for young Australians [6] Government and Policy Response - There are calls for federal and state governments to intervene decisively to accelerate housing construction and reduce regulatory burdens on medium-density developments [8] - The Institute of Public Affairs highlighted that new housing approvals have consistently fallen short of the targets set by the National Housing Agreement, lagging by 27% [8] - The time from approval to completion of a house has increased by 50% over the past decade, indicating inefficiencies in the housing market [11] Future Outlook - The expected net immigration of 1.3 million over the next three years will further widen the supply-demand gap in the housing market [8][9] - Critics argue that the federal government has misjudged the housing market's capacity and underestimated immigration growth, contributing to rising prices and rents [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market will continue to experience significant volatility into 2025, driven by policy dynamics and supply-demand imbalances, with U.S. policy movements being the largest variable affecting the market [1]. Oil Market - Oil prices are expected to gradually find a bottom, having fallen from $85 per barrel in January to $60 per barrel currently, exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The increase in oil supply in 2021 and 2022, coupled with a mismatch in supply and demand, has led to a sustained decline in oil prices [1]. - The U.S. government's aim to lower inflation by reducing oil prices and increasing energy production has been highlighted as a significant factor [2]. Demand Dynamics - Global oil demand remains strong, with a noted decline in U.S. demand, particularly in air travel, which decreased by approximately 2% from April to May [2]. - Despite the weakening demand in the U.S., international travel demand, especially from Europe, has reached new highs [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is stabilizing, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on energy revenues [2]. - Investments in tourism, fintech, and logistics are becoming focal points for these regions, decreasing the likelihood of escalating regional conflicts [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices are projected to enter a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [3]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, from 400 tons annually to 800 tons in 2022 and 1000 tons in 2023, with expectations of continued high demand [3][4]. - The emergence of new investors, particularly overseas holders of U.S. financial assets, is contributing to increased gold purchases, with a potential 0.5% shift of their $57 trillion in assets into gold leading to an additional 500 tons of demand annually [4]. Metal Market - The metal market, particularly copper, is facing challenges due to high prices and potential trade tensions, with copper currently priced at $9,500 per ton [4]. - The metal market is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S. policy changes, contrasting with the more stable outlook for oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with recent auctions showing unprecedented low demand and raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential buyer strikes [2][3][9]. Auction Results - The Japanese Ministry of Finance auctioned 500 billion yen (approximately 35 million USD) of 40-year bonds, resulting in a highest bid yield of 3.1350%, exceeding market expectations and marking the highest level since issuance began in 2007 [2]. - The auction for 20-year bonds the previous week recorded the lowest bid-to-cover ratio since 2012 at 2.5 times, with the tail spread reaching its highest level since 1987 [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the poor auction results, yields on various maturities surged, with the 40-year bond yield reaching 3.399%, a 1.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - The futures market also saw significant sell-offs, with the June bond futures contract dropping to 138.86 yen [8]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among investors regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policies, particularly in light of rising long-term bond yields and the potential for reduced issuance of long-term bonds [7][9]. - The Bank of Japan's recent actions, including a potential reduction in bond purchases, have contributed to a perception of instability in the bond market [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in demand for long-term bonds is attributed to the Bank of Japan's reduced purchasing, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [9]. - Major domestic investors, including life insurance companies and banks, have decreased their holdings in long-term bonds, further exacerbating the demand issue [14]. Global Implications - The turmoil in Japan's bond market may have broader implications, as rising long-term yields are observed in other developed economies, indicating a global trend of increasing fiscal sustainability concerns [16][17]. - Analysts warn that if Japanese interest rates rise significantly, it could lead to forced selling of foreign assets, potentially tightening global liquidity [17].

Group 1 - Japanese government bond auction demand was weak, leading to a significant drop in Japanese bonds and a rise in yields, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 10 basis points to 2.93% [2][5] - The U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.47%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal health are growing due to rising deficits from tax cuts and tariffs, impacting investor sentiment towards the dollar, which has seen a nearly 7% decline this year [8] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector saw a rise in stock prices ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with notable increases in shares of Samsung Electronics (up over 3%) and TSMC (up over 2%) [5] - Analysts expect strong demand for Nvidia chips in the coming quarters, supported by comments from major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [5] - Japan proposed purchasing billions of dollars worth of U.S. semiconductor products during trade negotiations, indicating potential growth in this sector [5] Group 3 - The Asian stock markets erased early gains, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.6% and the Nikkei 225 closing nearly unchanged at 37,722.4 points [1] - The price of rebar steel has fallen to an eight-year low, trading around 2,958 yuan, with an 11% decline in price year-to-date [12] - Cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin down by 0.2% and Ethereum down by 1.1% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is facing a structural crisis despite a temporary technical rebound in long-term bond yields, particularly the 30-year and 40-year bonds, which saw a decline of 7 basis points to 3.029% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off has pushed the yields of 30-year and 40-year bonds to their highest levels since issuance, indicating a significant market stress [4][5]. - The upcoming auction of 40-year bonds is critical; weak demand could lead to further yield increases and exacerbate the selling cycle, while strong demand may provide temporary stability [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a pronounced steepening of the yield curve in Japan, exacerbated by the central bank's significant reduction in bond purchases, with traditional buyers like life insurance companies failing to fill the gap [5]. - Japanese life insurance companies reported a more than doubling of domestic bond investment losses in the last fiscal year, highlighting the growing supply-demand imbalance [5]. Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The Bank of Japan's Governor has not indicated any plans to intervene in the bond market, contributing to increased market volatility and uncertainty [5]. - The outcome of the 40-year bond auction is seen as a crucial test of market demand, with potential implications for future market stability [5].

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