Economic Growth - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, exceeding the target of 5%[1] - Q2 GDP growth is 5.2%, slightly below Q1 and Q4 of the previous year, which were both 5.4%[1] - The GDP deflator index decreased from -0.8% in Q1 to -1.3% in Q2, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance[1] Industrial Performance - Industrial added value in June increased by 6.8%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports contributed nearly 40% to the increase in industrial added value, with a 4.0% growth in export delivery value in June[2] - The industrial sales rate in June was 94.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[1] Retail Sector - Retail growth slowed to 4.8% in June, primarily due to holiday misalignment and a decline in dining revenue[3] - The dining revenue growth rate in June was only 0.9%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from May, negatively impacting overall retail[4] - National subsidies for retail showed a reduced effect, contributing 1.5 percentage points to retail growth, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Behavior - The proportion of per capita consumption expenditure to disposable income in Q2 was 68.6%, lower than 2019 levels by 1.9 percentage points[5] - Urban consumption rates were 63.1%, down 2.8 percentage points from 2019, while rural consumption rates were 89.2%, up 1.6 percentage points[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, with a 6.6% increase excluding real estate investment[7] - In June, fixed asset investment fell to -0.1% year-on-year, with significant slowdowns in infrastructure and manufacturing investments[7] - The issuance of local special bonds increased in June, reaching 5270.9 billion yuan, but infrastructure investment growth continued to slow[7] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in June showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in area and 10.8% in sales value, marking the first drop below -10% since October of the previous year[8] - New residential prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in June, the lowest since November of the previous year[8] - Expectations for new real estate policies may arise in July-August, focusing on mortgage rate reductions and potential easing of purchase restrictions[8] Policy Outlook - The necessity for additional economic stimulus may decrease due to better-than-expected growth, with potential delays in new policies until external demand weakens significantly[9] - The government may prioritize targeted financial tools and mortgage rate adjustments in response to economic data in July-August[9] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, equity markets initially dipped but later rebounded, indicating resilience in market sentiment[10] - The bond market showed increased optimism, with yields declining as the economic growth trend demonstrated resilience against dual pressures of tariffs and weak demand[11]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of heightened investment demand and industrial usage, with significant growth in sales of investment silver products observed this year [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movement - As of July 11, silver prices reached a 14-year high, with spot prices rising by 3.77% to over $38 per ounce and COMEX futures increasing by 4.74% to surpass $39 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 32% [1]. - The increase in silver prices is attributed to both safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and rising industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [6][10]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Sales of investment silver products, such as silver bars and silver ingots, have surged by over 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong consumer interest [3]. - In June, sales of investment silver bars increased by 20% compared to May, with a notable preference for one-kilogram and 500-gram bars among consumers [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, with a reported shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2022, a gap that has persisted for five consecutive years [7]. - The World Silver Association projects that the demand for silver will continue to rise, particularly in the automotive sector, where the silver usage in hybrid and electric vehicles is expected to increase by 21% and 71%, respectively, compared to traditional vehicles [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Multiple institutions suggest that silver prices have further upward potential due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance and the financial attributes of silver [9]. - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations and the direction of U.S. monetary policy are identified as key factors influencing silver price fluctuations in the short term [10].

Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Major steel mills in Shanxi Province have restricted crude steel production by about 6 million tons. Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished products may shrink. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents. There is no obvious increase on the demand side, and the black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump's latest tariff policy has boosted the market's risk - aversion sentiment and the price of gold, but the rising US dollar has suppressed gold. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting are hawkish, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the time of interest rate cuts. Gold is expected to maintain high - level consolidation [4] Group 4: Logs - The spot market price is running weakly. The price in the Shandong market has dropped by 10 yuan, and the price in the Jiangsu market has remained stable. The expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas has eased, and rubber tapping work has gradually resumed. The demand for glue series has dragged down, showing a differentiation from the price of raw material cup lump. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has declined. The contradiction between supply and demand at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The weather in the US Midwest is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. Due to the good performance of US soybean export sales, short - covering has boosted US soybeans. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the bean meal inventory has continued to rise, and bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - The oil price may return to narrow - range fluctuations due to the lack of clear guidance. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with the oil price; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow the cost fluctuations in the short term; although the raw materials have recovered in the short term, the supply - demand of MEG is weakening, and the upward space of the disk is suppressed [8] Group 8: Pig - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is strong, and the pig sales in many northern regions are smooth. The pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the pig supply in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [9]

Group 1: Stock and Bond - Stock index long positions are recommended as data reflects China's economic resilience and market risk aversion eases [2] - Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly as market interest rates consolidate and Treasury bonds rebound narrowly [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Shanxi's mainstream steel mills limit crude steel production by about 6 million tons, and the supply of finished products may shrink under the "anti-involution" trend. The black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Market risk aversion rebounds due to Trump's tax increase letters, boosting the gold price. Gold is expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Group 4: Log - Log spot market prices are weak, with a 10-yuan decline in the Jiangsu market. Supply pressure eases, and the impact of log futures delivery on prices should be noted [5] Group 5: Rubber - Weather in Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas eases, but the natural rubber price remains under pressure as supply-demand contradictions are not significantly alleviated [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated reduction in US soybean planting area is limited, and the soybean production outlook is positive. With high imports and rising inventory, bean meal is expected to be weak [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - Oil prices face a callback risk, and PX, PTA, and MEC are affected by supply-demand changes and cost fluctuations [8] Group 8: Pig - The pig price may continue to rise in the short term, and southern China may lead a new round of price increases after July [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [7][10][12][14][15]. Core Viewpoints - The black spot market has been mediocre recently, with capital issues not significantly alleviated and weak terminal demand making it difficult for spot prices to rise. The futures market is more driven by expectations, and with the improving domestic and international macro - environment, the overall commodity valuation has increased. The furnace materials with relatively more certain demand perform better than finished products. After the price spike, it is advisable to wait and see for the next two weeks to observe the sustainability of steel demand [1]. - The "anti - involution" - related production cut expectations' positive impact has temporarily ended. The price increase has affected the export orders of finished products, and the spot price increase is weak. The black futures prices have slightly corrected. The industrial fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the degree of demand weakening [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: On July 4, 2025, Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils, and the US President will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. High prices have limited downstream purchasing willingness. After the rainy season, the supply and demand of rebar have both increased, and the inventory has continued to decline; the supply of hot - rolled coils has increased while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory change is limited [7]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel are not prominent, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariff disturbances are continuous. After the steel price increase, the steel export pressure shows signs of marginal weakening. It is expected that the short - term steel price will oscillate [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: This week, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter production rush, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but is lower than expected. The steel enterprises' iron water output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, the port inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Outlook: The iron ore demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions are not obvious. After this round of increase, the futures price has reached an important pressure level. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate in the short - term [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand has also declined. The long - and short - process total daily consumption of scrap steel has decreased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased [8]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and it is expected that the price will oscillate after the macro - environment cools down [8]. Coke - Core Logic: The supply and demand of coke have both declined. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, while a small number have reduced production due to profit pressure. The steel mills' iron water output has decreased, but the demand for coke remains strong [10]. - Outlook: There is an expectation of a price increase in the coke market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the iron water output and coal mine resumption [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Two coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the overall supply is gradually recovering. The Mongolian coal port transactions are active, but the port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. The short - term demand for coking coal remains, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the expectation of coal mine resumption [10]. - Outlook: The coal mine supply is expected to recover, but the short - term demand remains strong. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate [10]. Glass - Core Logic: In the off - season, the demand for glass has decreased, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, and the futures price has rebounded due to the expected production cuts. In the short - term, the positive feedback may be strong, but in the long - term, it still needs market - based capacity reduction. It is expected that the price will oscillate [12]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply capacity of soda ash has not been cleared, and the supply pressure remains. The heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand, while the light - soda ash demand is weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [12]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the price center will decline in the long - term [12]. Ferromanganese - Core Logic: The price of manganese ore has slightly decreased. The supply of ferromanganese has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand is expected to decline slightly as the steel production may decrease in the off - season [14]. - Outlook: The cost push is insufficient, and the supply - demand relationship of ferromanganese is becoming looser. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost of ferrosilicon is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand from the steel and metal magnesium industries has uncertainties. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but the future supply - demand gap may be filled [15]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, but the price increase driving force is insufficient. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **L利多因素**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, with strong price - holding intentions from mines, and rising sea freight costs support the cost. Policy disturbances in Indonesia (such as shortened quotas) and favorable new - energy policies strengthen the expectation of a strong supply chain [3]. - **利空因素**: Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season for demand, increasing the pressure to reduce inventory and suppressing consumption. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is expected to loosen, and combined with high - level inventory fluctuations, the supply - demand contradiction has weakened [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: There are limited changes in the fundamentals. Nickel price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and macro factors, and there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Data** - **镍期货**: The latest value of SHFE nickel main contract is 122,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.28%. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,355 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 165 dollars and an increase rate of 1.17%. The trading volume increased by 60.25% week - on - week, while the position decreased by 6.9% week - on - week [4]. - **不锈钢期货**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 170 yuan and an increase rate of 1%. The trading volume decreased by 9.97% week - on - week, and the position decreased by 8.28% week - on - week [4]. - **现货价格**: The latest value of Jinchuan nickel is 124,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 800 yuan and an increase rate of 0.65%. The latest value of imported nickel is 122,750 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan and an increase rate of 0.74% [4]. - **库存情况**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 202,470 tons, a decrease of 1,158 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 978 tons, a decrease of 14.1 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [4][6]. **Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel** - **产量情况**: The report presents the seasonal production of China's refined nickel, total monthly supply of primary nickel including imports, nickel - iron production in China and Indonesia [14][18][20]. - **库存情况**: It shows the seasonal changes in domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventory, as well as the seasonal changes in nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports [15][16]. **Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel** - **价格情况**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) are presented, along with the seasonal profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate [22][24][26]. - **产量情况**: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown [28]. **Stainless Steel** - **利润率情况**: The seasonal profit margin of China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils is presented [29]. - **产量和库存情况**: The seasonal production and inventory of stainless steel are shown [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in polysilicon and industrial silicon are driven by supply-side production cuts, market sentiment improvements, and a temporary rebound in demand, although long-term supply-demand imbalances remain unresolved [1][4][5] Supply Side - Industrial silicon futures rose by 2.66% to 7720 CNY/ton, while polysilicon futures increased by 3.46% to 31715 CNY/ton, influenced by production cut announcements [1] - Major polysilicon producers, including Tongwei and Daqo New Energy, have agreed to self-discipline production cuts, affecting over 1.2 million tons of capacity [3] - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain loose, with large manufacturers planning to resume operations due to lower electricity prices in the southwest region [1][3] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon is primarily driven by the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors, but overall demand is showing signs of slowing down [2][4] - The organic silicon market continues to see price declines, yet companies are maintaining production to capture market share, which may positively impact industrial silicon demand [2] - In the polysilicon sector, major companies are reducing production, leading to a decrease in overall demand for industrial silicon [2][3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of mid-June, visible polysilicon inventory stands at 270,000 tons, with total inventory potentially reaching 400,000 to 500,000 tons, indicating significant pressure [3] - The market is experiencing a temporary rebound in polysilicon prices due to a combination of supply cuts, demand spikes from the solar installation rush, and speculative trading in the futures market [5] - Despite recent price increases, the long-term outlook for industrial silicon remains cautious due to unresolved supply-demand issues and high inventory levels [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - The short - term outlooks for specific varieties are as follows: steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate; coke prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal prices are expected to oscillate; glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long - term; ferrosilicon manganese prices are expected to oscillate; and ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate [8][9][18]. Report's Core View - The black building materials sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of steel inventory pressure [1][2]. - The performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. Double - coking continued a small - scale rebound, iron ore oscillated around 700, and steel was relatively weak [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising, and it is expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises on the demand side [2]. Carbon Element - Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, the total amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. Overall, the supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase [3]. Alloys - Manganese ore has continuous disturbances. South African shipments in July may be affected by local railway derailments, and there may be a reduction in shipments from individual mines of South African manganese ore to China in July. The market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future [3][6]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand continues to weaken, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. There is still pressure in the off - season, but the production and sales in Shahe have improved slightly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, with some production lines starting to produce glass and some undergoing cold repairs. The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is higher than the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed, maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, overseas wars may still be repeated, and the macro - sentiment is weak. This week, the overall supply and demand of steel have strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamentals have strengthened month - on - month, but the expectations are still pessimistic, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises is increasing, and it is expected that the molten iron production can remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate [8][9]. Scrap Steel - As the building materials off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has short - term support. The factory inventory has decreased, and the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [9]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented, the shipment situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the expectation of stable prices in the coke market is increasing. The supply side shows that some coke enterprises have reduced their operations due to environmental protection and losses, and the overall coke production has continued to decline. The demand side shows that the decline in molten iron production has slowed down, but there is still an expectation of a decline. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is insufficient, and the upward space for coke prices is limited. In the medium term, there is still downward pressure on coke prices [9][11][12]. Coking Coal - The order - signing situation of coal mines has improved, but downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. The demand side shows that coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. The inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. The supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [13]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost side of ferrosilicon manganese has continuous disturbances, and the market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. The supply side shows that the overall production fluctuation is limited. The demand side shows that the futures have rebounded, the bargaining difficulty of steel procurement has increased, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices. Ferrosilicon manganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, the supply - demand is becoming more relaxed, but the cost of factories and manganese ore traders is inverted, and the sentiment of holding prices is strong. It is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Ferrosilicon - During the peak season, the expectation of energy such as electricity has improved. The cost side shows that the semi - coke market is stable. The supply side shows that the market's bearish sentiment has eased, most enterprises are producing according to orders, and the inventory decline trend has slowed down. The demand side shows that the steel procurement in June is basically over, and the metal magnesium market is in a general mood. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future, and it is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bottle chip industry is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottle chip industry maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with absolute prices dominated by the cost side and difficult to have an independent market. Domestic demand growth falls short of expectations this year, and although exports are strong, they are insufficient to absorb the supply increment, leading to a faster accumulation of social inventory. However, the active adjustment by factories increases, and the supply side may continue to show periodic fluctuation characteristics, which will improve the industry's supply - demand situation periodically. The industry's profit is likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, following the cost side. There are opportunities for operation in the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for the disk processing fee [3][74][75] Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 H1 Bottle Chip Market Review - In H1 2025, bottle chip prices closely followed polyester raw materials, with significantly increased price volatility and a downward - shifted processing fee center. The market can be divided into three stages: In the first stage, weak oil prices and weak demand led to a downward trend in the polyester industry chain. Bottle chip processing fees first increased and then decreased. In the second stage, the adjustment of the US reciprocal tariff policy caused pulse - like fluctuations in the polyester industry chain prices. Bottle chip processing fees were passively expanded and then quickly weakened. In the third stage, geopolitical risks and domestic PX device load reduction pushed up polyester industry chain prices. The planned 20% production cut in July by bottle chip manufacturers was temporarily restricted by the strong raw materials [13][14] 2. Supply: Periodic Characteristics under Excess Capacity 2.1 Expansion Cycle Nearing Completion, Capacity Growth Rate Slowing - After high - speed capacity growth in 2023 - 2024, the capacity expansion speed of bottle chips slowed down in 2025. In H1, 125 tons/year of new capacity was added. It is expected that the new capacity in H2 will be about 67 tons/year, and the annual new capacity may reach 192 tons/year. The capacity growth rate in 2025 may drop to around 9.4% [21] 2.2 Significantly Increased Supply Elasticity - From January to May 2025, the total bottle chip production was 6.945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. In Q1, the industry's operating rate was at a historically low level, and production increased moderately. After entering 2025, due to low processing fees and inventory pressure, there were more device shutdowns. In Q2, as the peak demand season approached, the operating rate quickly rose to over 90%. The supply elasticity of bottle chips increased significantly this year, with greater fluctuations in the operating rate [25][27] 2.3 From Price War to Joint Production Cut - Since May, with the increase in bottle chip production, social and factory inventory pressures have increased. In mid - June, the bottle chip industry reached a 20% production cut decision. If the production cut is implemented, it will temporarily relieve the industry's supply pressure in Q3, but there may be a cycle between joint production cuts and price wars in the future [35] 3. Domestic Demand: Growth Falls Short of Expectations, Maintaining Low - speed Growth - In H1, the soft drink industry's demand grew moderately with a slowdown in growth rate. From January to May, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage retail sales increased by 0.2%. The high - base effect, less policy stimulus, and lightweight packaging initiatives in the beverage industry affected bottle chip demand. In the edible oil and sheet material fields, the growth rate also slowed down. It is expected that the annual domestic demand growth rate of bottle chips will fall short of expectations and may return to the 3% - 5% low - growth range [38][41][54] 4. Exports: Strong Momentum, with a Slight Slowdown in Growth Rate Expected in H2 - In H1 2025, bottle chip exports maintained a high - speed growth, with a 21.5% year - on - year increase from January to May. Although there are trade frictions, their impact on the overall export pattern is limited. It is expected that the annual export volume of bottle chips will exceed 6.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slightly decline in H2 due to the high - base effect, with the annual growth rate likely to be in the 12% - 15% range [56][65] 5. Investment Suggestions - Fundamentally, the bottle chip industry maintains a loose supply - demand pattern. Strategically, industry profits are likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee will continue to oscillate at a low level. There are opportunities for operation in the 300 - 500 yuan/ton range of the disk processing fee [74][75]

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly in 2023, reaching a nearly five-year high, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, surpassing gold's performance [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The primary reason for platinum's price increase is a supply-demand imbalance, particularly due to production declines in South Africa caused by power shortages and frequent strikes [2][3]. - Global primary platinum production is highly concentrated, with South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and the USA accounting for 96% of total output [3]. - In 2025, total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 6.38% to 386.9 million ounces, while demand is projected to grow by 10.8%, leading to a supply-demand gap of 41.2 tons [4]. Market Trends - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant supply shortfall of 25 tons, marking the largest quarterly deficit in six years [6]. - Investment demand for platinum is anticipated to rise by 30% to 8 tons, driven by recovery in the Chinese and North American markets [6]. - The jewelry sector is expected to see a 5% increase in demand, with Chinese market demand projected to grow by 15% to 15 tons [6]. Price Dynamics - As of June 24, 2023, platinum's spot price was around $1,286 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [5]. - UBS has noted that platinum's price increase has surpassed their previous forecasts, indicating a potential for further price appreciation [5]. - Goldman Sachs has cautioned that the current price surge may not be sustainable, attributing it to speculative demand rather than fundamental improvements [7].