Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered after a series of domestic policies to stabilize the economy and the stock market. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. With the expected continuation of a loose capital environment and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [5]. - For precious metals, the weak US PPI data and employment data have increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting the prices of gold and silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - For various non - ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Generally, short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - environment, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [9][10][14]. - In the black building materials sector, steel products, iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and industrial silicon are all affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and cost. Most products are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21][24]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber, crude oil, methanol, urea, PVC, ethylene glycol, PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [33][39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean and rapeseed meal, oils and fats, sugar, and cotton are affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and policies. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [50][53][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.26%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1271.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount increased by 1.822 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate rose to 1.367%. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The TL main contract rose 0.07%, while T, TF, and TS main contracts fell. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [4][5]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 786.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.53% to 8787 yuan/kg. The weak US PPI and employment data increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 0.45% to 9690 US dollars/ton. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the processing fee is stabilizing. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 78200 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 0.12% to 2519 US dollars/ton. The short - term price is expected to continue to rebound, but the upward space is limited. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20200 - 20480 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2480 - 2540 US dollars/ton [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc smelter profits are rising. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased, and the decline of zinc prices has been repeated [11][12]. Lead - The downstream consumption of lead is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is expected that the lead price will continue to be weak [13]. Nickel - The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rebounds. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to be loose, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 US dollars/ton [15]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium has increased, and the inventory has risen slightly. It is expected that the contract will be weakly volatile. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract is 59500 - 60900 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel is expected to be slightly volatile in the short - term due to high inventory and weakening raw material prices [18]. Black Building Materials Steel Products - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a downward trend. The demand for steel products is weak, and the export volume has declined. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, demand recovery, and cost support [20]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. The supply has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased [21]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - term due to the lack of significant improvement in real - estate demand. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [22][23]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend since February. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side. The decline is due to factors such as weak commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction [24][25]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is in a downward trend. It is due to over - capacity and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips easily [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber price has fallen due to a poor macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [33][37]. Crude Oil - The WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. It is not recommended to short due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [39]. Methanol - The methanol price has rebounded weakly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [40]. Urea - The urea price has fallen due to high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile due to strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction [43]. PTA - The PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter a new de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure will be relieved in June, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned capacity expansion and weakening demand [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price is mainly stable with partial small declines. The near - month contract is expected to be volatile, and the far - month contract can be shorted on rallies [50]. Eggs - The egg price is mostly stable with partial weakening. The near - month contract can be shorted on rallies, and attention should be paid to the support of the far - month contract [51][52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price has fallen. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory pressure is postponed. The new - year US soybean may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range of the 09 contract [53][54]. Oils and Fats - The palm oil price has support due to low inventory in some regions, but it is still under pressure if the production recovers rapidly. It is expected to be volatile [55][57]. Sugar - The sugar price has fallen. The international supply tension may have passed, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [58]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The downstream start - up rate has not declined significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall commodity market is still in a downward trend [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the current situation of different industries, including production and service industries, and analyzes the price trends, production status, and market pricing of upstream, midstream, and downstream industries. It also mentions that the overall industry credit spread has recently declined slightly [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Middle - View Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The US Trade Representative's Office has launched a public consultation on a proposed modification to ship - related policies, which is considered beneficial to the shipping and energy industries as it relaxes review and fee requirements for foreign ships and eases regulations on LNG carriers [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Finance is actively cooperating to improve the "one - old - one - young" service system, advancing community - supported home - based elderly care services and promoting the high - quality development of inclusive childcare services [1]. 2. Industry Overview Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices are rising [1]. - **Chemical**: The prices of urea and soda ash are falling [1]. - **Black**: There is a slight decline [1]. Midstream - **Chemical**: The PTA operating rate has rebounded, while the PX operating rate has recently declined [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt operating rate has been continuously rising recently [2]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [3]. 3. Market Pricing The overall industry credit spread has recently declined slightly [4]. 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking The report provides the credit spread data of various industries on June 11, 2025, including the values of the same period last year, a quarter ago, a month ago, last week, and this week, as well as the quantile [49]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking The report shows the price index data of multiple industries on June 10, 2025, including the frequency, unit, update time, current value, year - on - year change, and the trend in the past 5 days [50].

Macro and Strategy Research - In May 2025, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in the previous month, while imports fell by 3.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% previously. The trade surplus reached USD 103.22 billion, up from USD 96.18 billion [4][5] - The slowdown in export growth is attributed to high base effects and global economic downturn concerns, with the global manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for three consecutive months. Exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5%, influenced by new tariffs and cautious sentiment among traders [4][5] - Import demand showed weakness, with agricultural imports rising by 17.9% year-on-year, while other major commodities experienced negative growth, indicating a need for policy support to boost domestic demand [5] Fixed Income Research - For the period from June 2 to June 8, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds increased, while transaction amounts decreased. The net financing amount for credit bonds rose, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing increases, while company bonds and short-term financing bonds saw reductions [6][8] - The overall yield on medium and short-term notes and corporate bonds declined, while city investment bonds showed mixed results. The credit spread for medium and short-term notes widened, indicating a complex market environment [8] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for yields is downward, and investors should focus on timing their investments and monitoring interest rate trends [8] Industry Research - In the steel sector, demand is expected to decline as the off-season deepens, leading to a potential accumulation of steel inventory. The short-term outlook remains weak for steel prices [10][11] - For copper, tight supply at the mine level supports prices, but the lack of demand during the off-season may lead to volatility, particularly influenced by US-China trade negotiations [10][11] - The aluminum market faces uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors, while low domestic inventory provides some price support. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, US interest rate expectations, and geopolitical factors, with a focus on macroeconomic data and trade developments [10][11] - The lithium market is experiencing oversupply, leading to price weakness, while the rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth due to policy support and emerging demand from robotics and renewable energy [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For credit bonds, continue to focus on coupon hunting and maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [8][9][10] - For convertible bonds, the sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit & Convertible Bond Market Observation and Thinking 3.1.1 Credit Bonds - From June 2nd to June 8th, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 273.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. The total repayment amount was 147.5 billion yuan, a reduction of about 1/3 compared to the previous period, resulting in a net inflow of 126.2 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week [8] - Short - term yields of each grade increased slightly by about 1bp, with higher - grade bonds having a larger increase. Long - term yields generally decreased by about 2bp. The risk - free yield curve shifted downward by 2 - 3bp. Short - duration spreads of each grade generally widened by about 4bp, while medium - and long - term spreads fluctuated within ±1bp. The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [9] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [9] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [9] - The bond market was stable last week, with a significant decline on Friday. The central bank has a strong willingness to support, but as spreads continue to narrow, the risk of credit bond valuation being affected by interest - rate bond fluctuations is increasing. It is not recommended to extend the duration at this stage, and it is advisable to maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [10] 3.1.2 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, the CSI 300 rose 0.88%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.10%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%, the STAR 50 rose 1.50%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.30%. The daily average trading volume increased by 114.305 billion to 1.21 trillion yuan [11] - Convertible bonds significantly followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [11] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11] 3.2 Credit Bond Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, downgrades of corporate or bond ratings, or overseas rating downgrades during the week from June 2nd to June 8th [12] - There were three major negative events: Guizhou Hongcai Investment Group Co., Ltd. was involved in two major lawsuits with a total execution amount of 604 million yuan; Huai'an Hongxin State - owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd. was sued for failing to pay project funds, with a total execution amount of 261 million yuan; and the credit enhancement measures of "H20 Shanshan 1" of Shanshan Group Co., Ltd. had significant adverse changes [13] 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds increased slightly compared to the previous period, while the maturity scale decreased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in the net inflow, exceeding 100 billion yuan. Only one credit bond was cancelled or postponed for issuance [13][14] - The primary issuance cost of medium - and low - grade bonds decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while that of high - grade bonds remained flat. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week. The frequency of newly issued AA/AA - grade bonds remained at a low level [14] 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations increased at the short - end and decreased at the long - end. The risk - free interest rate curve shifted downward. Short - end spreads of each grade widened significantly, while medium - and long - term spreads remained basically unchanged [16] - The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [18] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [21][23] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [24] 3.3 Convertible Bond Review 3.3.1 Market Overall Performance - From June 3rd to June 6th, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the losses [28] - Seven convertible bonds with the highest gains outperformed their underlying stocks. Jinling, Yitian, and Jingyuan Convertible Bonds led the gains, rising 24.42%, 14.89%, and 14.85% respectively. Tianyang, Jinling, and Limin Convertible Bonds were relatively active in trading [28] 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds Followed the Upward Trend, and the Wait - and - See Sentiment Remained - Convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [32] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall credit spread of AAA - rated entities slightly widened, while the spreads of AA+ electronic and AA pharmaceutical and biological industries significantly compressed, and the credit spreads of bonds in other industries and ratings fluctuated slightly. [2][3][24] - For urban investment bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly this week, with most regional spreads slightly widening, and the spreads of AA - rated urban investment entities in regions such as Guizhou and Yunnan slightly compressing. [2][27][28] - Regarding industrial bonds, the credit spread showed a pattern of widening at the short - end and slight fluctuation at the long - end this week. [2][31] - For bank capital bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly this week, and the 5 - year second - tier and perpetual bonds remained strong. [2][35] - It is recommended to continue to focus on the opportunities of 3 - 5 - year industrial bonds with good liquidity and yields above 2% and high - coupon bank second - tier and perpetual bonds this week. [2][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 170 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 72.4 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance was 282.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 178 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 112.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 105.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 10.4 billion yuan, an increase of 30.3 billion yuan compared with last week. [6] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 32.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 121.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.9 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 15.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 122.1 billion yuan. [6] 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance interest rates of AA+ and AAA - rated financial bonds decreased significantly this week, while that of AA - rated industrial bonds increased significantly. The changes in the issuance interest rates of other bonds and ratings did not exceed 7BP. [3][13] - Specifically, the issuance interest rate of AA+ - rated financial bonds decreased by 20BP compared with last week, mainly due to the issuance of "25 Great Wall Guorui CP002". The issuance interest rate of AAA - rated financial bonds decreased by 13BP, mainly due to the issuance of "25 Huishang Bank 01". The issuance interest rate of AA - rated industrial bonds increased by 23BP, mainly due to the high - coupon issuance of bonds such as "25 Honghe 03". [13] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 269.6 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 181.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.5 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 258 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.6 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 311.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 149.5 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 1.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.21 billion yuan. [14] - The overall turnover rate of credit bonds decreased compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.17%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 1.52%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.18%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.36%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points. [15] 3.2.2 Yield - Except for the significant increase in the yield of AA - rated credit bonds over 10 years, the yield fluctuations of credit bonds with different terms and ratings did not exceed 2BP. The yield of AA - rated credit bonds over 10 years increased by 9BP, reaching 3.59%. [19][20] - Taking AA+ - rated 5 - year bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds decreased to varying degrees this week. For industrial bonds, the yields of privately - issued and perpetual industrial bonds decreased by 4BP and 3BP respectively. For urban investment bonds, the yield of AA+ - rated 5 - year bonds decreased by less than 1BP. For financial bonds, the yield of commercial bank ordinary bonds increased by less than 1BP, and that of secondary capital bonds increased by 2BP. For asset - backed securities, the yield of AA+ - rated 5 - year securities decreased by 3BP. [20] 3.2.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spread of AAA - rated entities slightly widened this week, while the spreads of AA and AA+ - rated entities in some industries significantly compressed. The spreads of AA+ electronic and AA pharmaceutical and biological industries compressed by 28BP and 25BP respectively, and the credit spread of AA+ leisure services widened by 9BP. The fluctuations of credit spreads of bonds in other industries and ratings did not exceed 5BP. [24] - For urban investment bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly. The spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, and 5 - 10Y bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively, and the spread of bonds over 10 years compressed by less than 1BP. Regionally, most regional spreads slightly widened, and the spreads of AA - rated urban investment entities in Guizhou and Yunnan compressed by 1BP and 4BP respectively. [27][28] - For industrial bonds, the credit spread showed a pattern of widening at the short - end and slight fluctuation at the long - end. The spreads of private and perpetual industrial bonds within 1 year widened by 2 - 5BP, the spreads of 5 - year AA+ private and perpetual industrial bonds compressed by 2BP and 1BP respectively, and the spreads of 10 - year industrial bonds fluctuated slightly. [31] - For bank capital bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly, showing a pattern of slight widening at the short - end and slight compression at the long - end. For bank secondary capital bonds, the spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA - rated bonds widened by 1BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA - and AA - rated bonds compressed by 1BP and 1BP respectively. For bank perpetual bonds, the spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA - rated bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA - rated bonds compressed by 1BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively. The 5 - year second - tier and perpetual bonds remained strong. [35] 3.3 This Week's Bond Market News - The issuer, Guangdong Mengtai High - tech Fiber Co., Ltd., had its entity rating and the rating of its "Mengtai Convertible Bond" downgraded. [2][40]

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

彭博 2025年全新升级 彭博债券南向通双周报，推出 彭博债券月报 ，旨在为市场参与者提供固 收市场热点、债券市场关键数据及图表和最值得关注的固收产品等实时市场热点内容，助您实时 短端利率方面：根据SOFR期货价格隐含的市场预期， 当前市场预计美联储将在2025年第四季度 启动降息，这与我们的判断基本一致 。但我们认为，一旦降息周期开启，联邦基金利率将更有可 能快速下探至3%以下。相比之下，SOFR期货市场当前隐含的终端利率为3.35%，高于我们认为 更为合理的2.75%。此外，结合SOFR期权市场定价及我们基于 风险中性分布模型 的测算结果， 至2026年底，美联储将利率降至2.25%以下的概率约为20%。 扫描二维码 立即订阅彭博债券月报 固收市场热点 美联储降息恐将延后至Q4，收益率曲线趋势或达临界点 随着市场对美联储首次降息时点的预期延后至2025年11月， 收益率曲线的陡峭化趋势可能正处 于从"熊陡"向"牛陡"转变的临界点 。市场开始逐步计入2026年通胀回落与经济增速放缓的可能 性， 货币政策预期将成为未来曲线走势的核心驱动因素。 以10年期国债利率作为分界点，短端利率（如2年期国债）在政策预期调 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, the interest rate was in a volatile market, and the decline of the capital center opened up the carry trade space. Institutions chased credit products with relatively high coupon yields, and funds became the main buyers, driving the credit spreads to narrow across the board. The 3 - 5 - year medium - and low - grade bonds performed better. In June, the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds is unfavorable, and the cost - performance of credit bonds has declined, which may lead to the widening of credit spreads. It is not recommended to chase low - grade medium - and long - term bonds, but there is no need to rush to take profits on medium - and long - term credit bonds. Instead, consider taking profits in mid - to late July. In June, when the coupon and credit spreads are both at low levels, it is appropriate to explore the riding opportunities of medium - and high - grade varieties, especially the 4 - year medium - and high - grade bonds. [1][2][24] - For bank capital bonds, the cost - performance of long - term large - bank capital bonds for insurance institutions is still low, and the allocation demand is difficult to recover in the short term. It may depend more on the start of the trading market. In the process of waiting, coupon assets can still be pursued, and there is still cost - performance in sinking the credit of medium - and short - term bonds. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. June Credit: Sinking within 3 Years and Riding Medium - and High - Grade Bonds 1.1. It is not advisable to chase high for low - grade medium - and long - term bonds. Explore the riding opportunities of medium - and high - grade 4 - year bonds - In May, the bond market was defensive, and the long - end interest rate fluctuated. The decline of the capital center opened up the carry trade space, and funds became the main buyers of credit bonds, driving the credit spreads to narrow across the board. The 3 - 5 - year medium - and low - grade bonds in urban investment bonds performed better, with yields down 12 - 16bp and credit spreads narrowing 12 - 18bp. [8][9] - In June, the demand for credit bonds is facing a decline in the scale of wealth management products at the end of the quarter, while the supply side will see an increase in issuance and net financing month - on - month. The unfavorable supply - demand pattern and the decline in the cost - performance of credit bonds may lead to the widening of credit spreads. [13][16] - In May, the market for low - grade 3 - 5 - year bonds was extreme. There is no need to rush to take profits on medium - and long - term credit bonds in June, but it is not recommended to chase low - grade medium - and long - term bonds. [22][24] - In June, when the coupon and credit spreads are at low levels, it is appropriate to explore the riding opportunities of medium - and high - grade varieties. The current convex point is at the 4 - year term, and the 4 - year medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds are worth deploying. It is also possible to consider replacing 5 - year bonds with similar 4 - year bonds to improve the risk - return ratio of the portfolio. In addition, 3 - year AA(2) and AA urban investment bonds have both coupon income and liquidity and can be used as defensive investment products. [29][30][33] 1.2. Bank capital bonds are waiting for the start of the trading market - In May, institutions valued the coupon cost - performance when allocating bank capital bonds. Medium - and small - bank capital bonds and AA - perpetual bonds with coupon advantages performed better, while the performance of 1 - year large - bank capital bonds and 4 - 5 - year AAA - bank capital bonds was poor. [36] - The cost - performance of long - term large - bank capital bonds for insurance institutions is still low, and the allocation demand is difficult to recover in the short term. The performance of long - term large - bank capital bonds may depend more on the start of the interest - rate bond trading market. In the process of waiting, coupon assets can still be pursued, and there is cost - performance in sinking the credit of medium - and short - term bonds. [38][45] 2. Urban Investment Bonds: The Issuance Interest Rates Have Declined across the Board, and the Buying Interest Remains High - In May, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds continued to decline year - on - year, and the net financing was negative, but the overall issuance sentiment was good. The proportion of 3 - 5 - year issuance continued to rise slightly, and the issuance interest rates of all terms declined, with relatively large declines in the medium - and short - term. [48][49] - The secondary - market buying interest in urban investment bonds was high in May, but the trading sentiment declined in the last week. The trading volume was gradually extended in terms of duration, and the low - grade varieties had a high proportion of trading volume. [58] - The yields of public urban investment bonds in each province declined in May, with the 2 - 3 - year medium - and low - grade bonds performing better. [60] 3. Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, and the Yields Declined across the Board - In May, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The industries with large net financing scales include comprehensive, building decoration, chemical, and transportation industries. The proportion of issuance within 1 year increased significantly, and the issuance interest rates within 3 years declined significantly, while the 3 - 5 - year issuance interest rates increased slightly. [62][64] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in May. Low - grade bonds with coupon advantages and 7 - year medium - and high - grade bonds performed better. The yields of public bonds in each industry declined by 7 - 21bp, with 1 - year AA, 1 - 3 - year AA + and AA performing better. [65][69] 4. Bank Capital Bonds: Low - Grade Bonds Performed Better, and the Trading Sentiment Was Weak - In May 2025, the issuance scale of bank capital bonds increased year - on - year, but due to the large amount of maturity redemptions, the net financing scale decreased year - on - year. [72] - The yields of bank capital bonds generally declined in May, and most of the credit spreads narrowed. Low - grade perpetual bonds performed better, while large - bank capital bonds performed weakly. [76]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market outlook for June 2025, highlighting the current state of the real estate market and its implications for the bond market [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Current Market Conditions**: The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, making it difficult to find trend-based opportunities. Investors are advised to adopt a longer time horizon and actively implement the 97 strategy to gain capital gains and coupon income [1][3]. 2. **Real Estate Market Impact**: The ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market, particularly in first-tier cities, is expected to support the bond market. The number of second-hand homes listed has decreased, and while restrictive policies may ease, transaction and new construction data remain weak, indicating macroeconomic pressure [1][4]. 3. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: Following an unexpected tightening of the funding environment in Q1 2025, the central bank is unlikely to further tighten monetary policy. Factors such as the real estate downturn and external pressures from the US-China tariff conflict contribute to this outlook [1][6]. 4. **Institutional Behavior**: There is a persistent marginal pressure on credit due to insufficient lending and a lack of non-standard investments. Institutions are inclined to eliminate yield convexity, making high-positioning strategies important [1][7]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: For June, while the bond market has a high probability of success, the potential returns are limited. Over the next two to three months, returns may be constrained, but a medium to long-term view supports maintaining a mid-to-high duration 97 strategy to achieve excess returns [1][8]. 6. **Changes in Institutional Behavior**: In H1 2025, institutions have adjusted their investment behaviors due to low interest rates and tightening liquidity. Funds and wealth management products have increased their allocation to 1-5 year credit bonds and secondary capital bonds [1][9][10]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Credit Spread Trends**: The credit spread in the credit bond market has been relatively high, with mainstream credit bond varieties showing a difference of 20 to 40 basis points compared to August 2024. The market has experienced three phases of credit spread movement this year [15]. 2. **Future Market Dynamics**: Looking ahead to H2 2025, factors such as changes in US-China relations, economic fundamentals, and potential policy announcements from the Political Bureau meeting in July could create volatility in the market [11][12]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are encouraged to focus on city investment bonds, particularly in provinces like Tianjin and Chongqing, and to explore opportunities in coal, steel, and state-owned enterprises in real estate through short-term coupon digging or increasing duration operations [2][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the bond market outlook and investment strategies for the upcoming months.