Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the suppression of the stock market's strength on the bond market is not severe, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces certain disturbances, and further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [4][26][27]. Group 3 1. How does the stock - bond seesaw play out? - The report calculated the dynamic correlation coefficient between the daily changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the daily changes of the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate since 2015. It found that the stock - bond seesaw effect holds in most periods, with stock and bond markets generally moving in opposite directions. The weakening of the negative correlation mainly occurs during periods of obvious liquidity tightening or loosening, such as from 2016.07 - 2017.05 (liquidity tightening) and 2020.02 - 2022.10 (liquidity loosening). In the current bond market adjustment, the correlation between stocks and bonds has not significantly increased, and the stock market's impact on the bond market will decrease [4][11][13]. 2. How to view the subsequent bond market? - **Fundamental data disturbances**: In June, high - frequency port data showed that export performance remained resilient, and the spread between the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill rediscount rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate indicated possible improvement in credit conditions, which may affect bond market interest rates [15][18]. - **Accelerated issuance of special bonds**: The issuance of local special bonds may accelerate significantly in July, increasing the supply pressure on the bond market. It may also disrupt the capital market and restrict the decline of bond market interest rates as it can boost local investment [20]. - **Rising policy expectations**: Policy expectations related to the real estate industry are fermenting. Although the real estate market has been weak, new policies are expected to boost its performance, which may disrupt bond market sentiment [24]. 3. Summary - The stock market's strength has a limited impact on the bond market, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces disturbances from fundamental data, special bond issuance, and policy expectations. Further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [26][27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen significant trading activity and liquidity, with a recent price adjustment to 124.5 yuan and a turnover rate of 24.52% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The 30-year government bond ETF recorded a trading volume of 41.31 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 69.27 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 168.46 billion yuan, showcasing its substantial market presence [1] - Recent data indicates a net inflow of 8.49 billion yuan into the ETF, suggesting positive investor sentiment [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Huaxi Securities noted that after recent adjustments, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have returned to relatively high levels of 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less reactive to negative news [1] - The upcoming mid-July period is highlighted as a critical observation point for the central bank's stance on liquidity, which could influence the bond market's recovery [1] - Guosheng Securities emphasized that the current stock market rally relies on a low-interest-rate environment, and the bond market's adjustment space is limited, presenting better allocation opportunities post-adjustment [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a significant pullback on July 10, with all major government bond futures closing lower, indicating increased vulnerability due to compressed spreads, high leverage, and low funding rates [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates trending upwards as the month progresses [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.36% to 120.530, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.16% to 108.845 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 0.75 basis points to 1.869%, and the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.656% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, most U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.71 basis points to 3.764% [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a mixed sentiment in the international bond markets [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.3908% for 185 days, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.97, indicating strong demand [4] - The Export-Import Bank's 3-year fixed-rate bond had a bid yield of 1.4% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.22, reflecting investor interest [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 32.8 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that while CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, PPI was weaker, indicating a potential bottoming process for prices, but warns of demand-side weakening [6] - CITIC Securities highlights multiple factors affecting the bond market, including concerns over the sustainability of inflation improvements and external demand weakness [7] - Changjiang Fixed Income anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will continue to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.65%, with potential opportunities in the yield curve [7]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments with rising yields and falling government bond futures, while the central bank continues to inject liquidity, maintaining a balanced and slightly loose monetary environment. The easing of U.S. tariffs has significantly boosted risk appetite, leading to a stronger stock market and weaker bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On May 29, the interbank market saw major bond yields rise by 1-2 basis points, and government bond futures declined across the board [1]. - The central bank's ongoing net liquidity injection through OMO indicates a commitment to maintaining a stable funding environment [1]. - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with a focus on the upcoming announcements regarding the central bank's reverse repos and the May manufacturing PMI data [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Following the recent adjustments in the bond market, the yield-to-price ratio has become more attractive, suggesting potential for gradual yield declines in the future [1]. - The last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival typically sees increased trading activity, presenting opportunities for premium and discount trades [1]. - The government bond ETF (511520) saw a net inflow exceeding 500 million yuan, making it the largest bond ETF in the market with a total scale of over 47.8 billion yuan, suitable for clients looking to extend duration easily [1].

中美贸易谈判超预期，资金面趋紧，债市延续调整 ——利率债周报（2025.5.12-2025.5.18） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 5 月 19 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市震荡调整，长债收益率大幅上行。上周一（5 月 12 日） 中美达成贸易共识，双边关税显著调降，市场避险情绪迅速降 温，债市出现明显调整。周二市场情绪有所修复，但因国债放 量发行，资金面逐步收紧，周三、周四债市再度调整。直到周 五资金面边际改善，债市小幅回暖。整体上看，受中美谈判超 预期以及资金面趋紧影响，上周债市震荡偏空，长债收益率延 续上行。短端利率方面，尽管降准落地，但受央行连续净回笼 及MLF到期影响，上周资金面先松后紧，导致短端利率延续上行 态势，但上行幅度小于长端，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（5 月 19 日当周）债市料将延续震荡格局。从资金面来 看，由于前期资金已充分宽松，央行"双降"后进入政策观察 期，且本周正值税期走款，资金面进一步宽松的概率较低。从 基本面来看，中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，市场对基本面预期有 所修复，但仍需经济数据验证，同时，后续中美贸易战走势仍 存在较 ...

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 6 basis points, with a latest price of 105.71 yuan, showing a cumulative increase of 1.14% over the past six months [1] - The trading volume for the Company Bond ETF was 25.34 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 18.18%, indicating active market participation [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 13.936 billion yuan, marking a one-year high, with a total of 132 million shares, also a one-month high [1] - The net inflow of funds into the Company Bond ETF was 263 million yuan, with a total of 524 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days [1] Group 2: National Development Bond ETF Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) was quoted at 106.06 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.02% over the past six months [5] - The trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF was 1.05 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.15% [5] - The scale of the National Development Bond ETF increased by 416 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [5] - The latest share count for the National Development Bond ETF reached 13.8344 million shares, a one-month high [5] Group 3: Government Bond ETF Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF (511020) was quoted at 117.19 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 3.02% over the past six months [8] - The trading volume for the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF was 1.03 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.02% [8] - The latest scale of the 5-10 Year Government Bond ETF reached 1.467 billion yuan [8] Group 4: Market Insights and Economic Indicators - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.2%, indicating a need for improvement in domestic demand [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7%, reflecting weak demand recovery [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent economic stabilization in China, along with improving consumer sentiment and resilient exports, may lead to a shift in monetary policy focus [2]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the bond market has been strong since April, leading to a significant inflow of funds into the wealth management market, with the total scale of wealth management products reaching a historical high of 23.58 trillion yuan by the end of April, an increase of 1.89 trillion yuan from March and 1.16 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Growth - The growth in the wealth management market has shown a significant "tiered differentiation," with state-owned banks leading the increase, generally exceeding 10% growth [2] - Six state-owned bank wealth management companies contributed approximately 1.13 trillion yuan to the market in April, accounting for nearly 60% of the total increase among the top 14 institutions [2] - The cumulative increase in wealth management products for several joint-stock banks has also been notable, with Everbright Wealth Management leading with an increase of over 230 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Growth - The bond market has benefited from a "see-saw" effect due to stock market volatility, leading to a recovery in the net value curve of wealth management products [4] - The average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income products reached 3.21% by the end of April, an increase of 1.41 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The "deposit migration effect" has intensified, with many banks lowering deposit rates, making wealth management products more attractive compared to traditional deposits [4] Group 3: Product Performance - Fixed-income and cash management products have directly benefited from the influx of new funds, with cash management product scales increasing by nearly 500 billion yuan in April [5] Group 4: Future Challenges - Despite maintaining high market scales, the wealth management market faces significant challenges in the context of a stable but low-demand market for fixed-income asset yields [6] - Analysts express concerns about the short-term funding sources for wealth management liabilities and potential adjustments in the bond market due to regulatory policies [7]

固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...