1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, global geopolitical risks increased due to the US military strike on Venezuela. Globally, the stock market was divided, the bond market and commodities declined, and in terms of dollar - denominated assets, bonds > stocks > commodities. In China, the stock market was divided, the bond market oscillated, commodities declined, and stocks > bonds > commodities. Short - term attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical risk factors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market and Commodities Declined - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance. The US stock market performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index stabilized at a low level weekly. For example, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.30%, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index fell 0.63% [8][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 5BP to 4.19%. The bond market declined weekly, and globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [12] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The US dollar index rose 0.43% weekly. Major non - US currencies generally depreciated against the US dollar, while the RMB exchange rate was oscillating strongly [14] - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: Geopolitical factors did not significantly support international oil prices, which oscillated weekly. International gold and silver prices dropped significantly due to increased margin requirements. Most agricultural product prices fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose [14] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market Oscillating, Commodities Declined - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: A - share major broad - based indices mostly declined, but the trading volume increased. Large - cap blue - chip stocks were relatively resistant to decline. The petroleum and petrochemical, and military industries led the gains, while public utilities and food and beverage sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% [18][20] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 117.1 billion yuan, and the money market was relatively stable. The bond market oscillated weakly weekly, with corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [21] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined overall, with precious metals performing poorly [21] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors have increased in the short term, and attention should be paid to their impact on major asset prices [23]

手握"真理"讲道理都是浪费时间。 规矩是给守规矩的人定的而不是给制定规矩的人。 讲道理不在于道理两个字而在于"讲"字。 看谁讲怎么讲? 两个小时你能干什么？ 谁能预料到短短两个小时结束战斗，市场想炒作一下电脑都来不及打开。 一部电影可能还没散场，一场聚会或许还没结束吧。 2026年3日凌晨委内瑞拉总统马杜罗还和老婆正在酣睡。 美国"飞虎队"冲进卧室将两个带走，而且是带离本国直接飞往美国。 一个主权国家总统被"斩首"，时间快得让人都没反应过来。 一月份更聚焦新美联储主席才是关键，此人直接决定2026年美联储降息节奏和频率，这才是推动真正牛市进行的助力器。 说一下今天黄金的行情： 早上金价受地缘风险影响跳空高开，强势反弹已经突破上周二反弹高点区域，黄金关键压力4400美元被击穿，下一个强压力在4430美元的位置，这里在上 周一下跌过程中扮演强支撑。 另外，地缘风险的影响具有时效性很难有持续性，涨完之后欧盘延续上涨才是重点，亚盘上涨欧盘延续根据口诀美盘前回调能多一次，4430美元靠近依旧 有空的机会。 目前技术面来看形成了W底形态，两次也探靠近4300美元形成双底，并且借助这次地缘事件突破关键性压力4400美元的位 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US raided Venezuela, escalating geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026 [2] - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026 [2] - Domestic PTA maintains high production, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, with high PTA consumption and increased market hoarding willingness [2][3] - Polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, but polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5100 to 5095, a drop of 5 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3694 to 3681, a drop of 13 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price decreased from 5144 to 5110, a drop of 34 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3847 to 3803, a drop of 44 [2] Short Fiber Market - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6640 to 6545, a drop of 95 [2] - Short fiber basis decreased from 86 to 70, a drop of 16 [2] - 2 - 3 spread decreased from 8 to 4, a drop of 12 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chip Market - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased by 35 yuan/ton on average, with a range of 6030 - 6100 yuan/ton [2] - PTA and bottle chip futures were closed, supply-side offers were stable with a slight increase, market negotiation was light, and downstream terminal demand was weak, but the negotiation focus shifted slightly upward [2] Other Product Price Changes - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10400 to 10450, an increase of 50 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3760 to 3905, an increase of 145 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16370 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15280 to 15315, an increase of 35 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1192 to 1242, an increase of 50 [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - Direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95% [3] - Polyester short fiber production and sales increased from 55.00% to 57.00%, an increase of 2.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

· 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产 会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题 金十数据1月4日讯，欧佩克+在声明中表示，欧佩克+同意在2026年第一季度维持石油产量稳定。周日的欧佩克+会议召 开之际，由于市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧，2025年油价已下跌超过18%，创下自2020年以来最大年度跌幅。该组织在 去年11月已同意在今年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。此外，一位欧佩克+代表表示， 八个成员国在周日的简短线上会议上并未讨论委内瑞拉问题。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/25 ...

黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 2026.01.05-01.09 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2025年底至2026年初，黄金价格呈现高位回调后企稳的震荡走势。短期 受年末获利了结、交易所上调保证金及白银暴跌情绪传导影响，价格自 高位回落。但中长期上涨核心逻辑未变：美联储降息预期持续、全球央 行购金提供坚实支撑、地缘风险带来避险需求。金价在4300-4350美元/ 盎司（对应国内约970-980元/克）区间获得支撑并反弹。展望后市，尽 管短期可能因政策或技术面承压震荡，但在上述三大支柱支撑下，中长 期上行趋势预计将延续。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位1011－1026元/克，下 方支撑位988－1000元/克，建议逢低买入，注意元旦假期风险。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位980－1000元/克，下方 支撑位950－970元/克， ...

"EIA数据显示，委内瑞拉石油储量达3030亿桶，约占全球原油储量的五分之一，为全球储量最高的国 家。"光大期货能化团队最新发布的研究报告统计分析，但受美国经济制裁影响，委内瑞拉石油行业上 游投资不足，导致其原油产量大幅下滑。 全球原油市场维持供强需弱格局，假期期间地缘变局再起，对油价影响几何？ 假期期间，地缘变局又起。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普于1月3日称，美国对委内瑞拉实施大规模打击，已抓获委总统马杜罗及 其夫人并将他们带离委内瑞拉。 委内瑞拉为产油国，此次石油价格是否会受到脉冲影响？ 目前国际原油市场尚处于周末后的"盘前"阶段，2026年首个交易日国际原油价格继续收低。1月2日， NYMEX原油期货合约下跌0.17%，结算价报每桶57.32美元；ICE布伦特原油合约下跌0.10美元，结算价 报每桶60.75美元。 "预计国际油价将脉冲式高开，随后仍会被供应过剩主线拉回每桶55美元～60美元区间，"一位能源行业 分析人士对第一财经记者分析称，供需基本面主导下，地缘风险对油价的提振逐步被大幅稀释。当前全 球市场目前处于供应过剩状态，原油市场近年来多次经历地缘扰动后，"免疫"特征明显。需关注国际市 场开盘 ...

1月4日，上周受降息预期和地缘风险推动，金价承接2025年末的强势惯性，一度交投于4500美元/盎司 上方的高位。然而，随着元旦假期结束，市场流动性恢复，前期积累了超过60%巨大年度涨幅的多头开 始集中获利了结。下周市场目前定价2026年将有两次降息。任何关于降息节奏、幅度，乃至美联储新任 主席人选的风声，都可能引发市场重估。此前因政府停摆而延迟发布的经济数据将陆续公布，可能重塑 市场对经济状况和通胀路径的看法。 周六（1月3日）凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉发起了一场大规模的惊喜军事行动，这次行动代号为"绝对决心 行动"，并宣布成功抓获该国总统马杜罗及其夫人。美国司法部随后宣布将以多项罪名起诉马杜罗夫 妇，宣布临时接管国家！ 可以说，此次事件标志着全球地缘局势显著升级，可能加剧市场对更大范围冲突的忧虑，从而强化黄金 的避险属性，其"战争溢价"将凸显，对价格构成基础支撑。下周一开盘基本确定会暴涨拉升。后续更需 关注周末是否会有联合国安理会紧急会议、周边国家（如哥伦比亚、巴西）的反应、以及俄罗斯等大国 的表态，这些将决定危机是走向扩散还是逐渐平息。 若有所平息，"买预期，卖事实"会让金价大幅冲高回落，到时一旦开始下跌，可 ...

【金启新程掌乾坤，步步为盈岁岁安】 新岁启幕，万象更新！祝各位财源广进，福寿安康，账户常红！2026年，黄金征途，保持信心，李槿与你结伴同行，稳抓波段，共赴新高！ 回首年末：周一黄金单日重挫，创两月最大跌幅。从最高4549一路回撤来到4307。周二震荡修复，冲高回落延续跌势。周三收官震荡，小幅收跌。国际黄金 高位暴跌后弱修复，主因年末获利了结、保证金上调和流动性不足，中长期支撑趋势未变。 展望全年：今年全年大概率高位震荡、温和上行，核心看美联储降息、央行购金与地缘风险影响。机构预测目标剑指4900-5100，极端情况下6000可期。美 联储2025年已经降75基点，2026年如果再降2次，压低持有成本，利好金价。 今日开盘黄金直接跳空高开，亚盘震荡偏强走势。最近主要开始逢低多，实战趋势布局会陆陆续续开始。今日如果有低点出现或探低确认，谨记：回落不是 风险，而是倒车接人的良机！ 短期走势上先震荡对待，短期趋势多空上方分水关口在4400，站稳这里，黄金会有大的反攻或年度后续还会有新高。机构预测的4900大目标后期年度大概率 也会到，只是时间问题，短期不用关注那么多！ 上周五下探4275触发反弹，今日早盘重点关注4 ...

| | 国长期货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月31日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ななな | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铂 | 文文文 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 隔夜贵金属延续调整，日内波动仍大。美联储会议纪要显示官员分歧严重，不过大多数与会者认为如果通胀 如预期随时间下降，进一步下调利率可能是适当的。美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势,但资金 推动下短期内涨幅过大,阶段性调整在所难免, 铂把连续大幅度下挫, 主因前期多头资金拥挤,元旦假期前 获利盘出局，盘面呈 ...

2025年12月31日汇市收官，美元兑加元窄幅震荡，早间收于1.3696，微涨0.09%，盘中触及1.3700关 口。国际油价、美加央行政策分化及地缘风险，是短期波动的核心诱因。 加元作为商品货币，与油价高度联动。近期WTI原油企稳于每桶57.80美元，前一日涨1.6%，地缘风险 (委美冲突、乌局势波折)提供支撑。但需警惕"欧佩克+"增产压力，油价回落或削弱加元支撑。 技术面看，汇价处于高位震荡修正，运行于1.3620—1.3800区间，50日均线提供中期支撑。RSI指标近 50，短期无明确方向。支撑位1.3650—1.3620，跌破或下探1.3550—1.3580；阻力位1.3720及1.3800。 分析师认为，短期汇价或维持区间震荡。年末至2026年初需重点关注油价走势与美加央行政策信号。投 资者需警惕年末流动性收紧放大波动，建议谨慎操作，依托关键点位布局。 货币政策分化是关键变量。美联储2025年累计降息75个基点，市场押注2026年继续宽松，削弱美元利差 优势。不过12月31日美元指数涨0.21%至98.241，年末避险情绪为美元兑加元提供短期支撑。 加拿大央行维持2.25%基准利率不变，基调中性谨慎 ...