Group 1 - Gold prices are supported by global reserve demand and geopolitical risks, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut putting downward pressure on the dollar, creating a dual upward momentum [1] - Industrial demand remains robust, and central bank gold purchases continue, but high interest rates suppress speculation, leading to price fluctuations driven by macro policies and market sentiment [1] - The expansion of photovoltaic and electronic demand provides long-term support, while constraints at the mining level and weak elasticity of recycled silver exacerbate volatility [1] Group 2 - Recent U.S. retail sales data, known as "terrifying data," underperformed expectations but had limited impact on the market; focus is now on the non-farm payroll report, which is unlikely to change market trends significantly [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, is escalating, with potential implications for gold and oil prices [2] - Gold and silver are currently in a "fifth phase" of long-term consolidation, characterized by a lack of sustained price movements, leading to volatile trading conditions [2] Group 3 - For spot gold, key resistance is identified in the $5090-$5100 range, with a short-term adjustment expected before any upward breakout; the support zone is between $4980-$5000 [3] - The current market is in a sweeping phase, making it difficult to establish a one-sided trend; resistance levels to watch include $5140-$5150 and $5220-$5240, while support levels are at $4900 and $4820-$4830 [3] Group 4 - For spot silver, the market is in a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with indications of a potential shift from bullish to bearish; the current outlook suggests a lengthy sweeping phase with multiple trading opportunities [4] - Key resistance levels for silver are at $85-$86, $92-$93, and the $100 mark, while support levels are at $78-$79 and $75-$76, with critical support at $70-$71 and $64-$65 [4]

Group 1 - In January, the national futures market in China saw a significant increase in trading volume and value, with a trading volume of 912 million contracts and a trading value of 100.26 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 65.09% and 105.14% respectively [1] - The increase in market activity is attributed to several factors, including a rotation effect among market sectors, heightened demand for hedging and asset allocation due to geopolitical risks, increased price volatility of certain commodities, and seasonal effects at the beginning of the year [1][2] - The number of listed futures and options in China reached 165 by the end of January, with over 50 products, including silver, copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, experiencing year-on-year trading volume growth exceeding 100% [2] Group 2 - Notable increases in trading volume were observed in nickel futures, which grew by 799.06%, followed by copper and aluminum futures with increases of 403.75% and 395.39% respectively, and silver futures with a growth of 177.89% [2] - The demand for precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by industrial needs, particularly in sectors such as photovoltaics, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles, which has intensified the investment interest in these commodities [2] - The top three products by trading value in January were silver, gold, and copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange had PTA, cotton, and coking coal as their top products [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain, and the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. The potential military action between the US and Iran and the Fed's policy stance are influencing the market. The current market sentiment may lead to an increase in the demand for gold investment, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week [1]. - Fed aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to the neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.92 yuan/gram, closed at 1,121.22 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,119.74 yuan/gram, down 0.13% from the afternoon session [2]. - The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,500.00 yuan/kg, closed at 20,284.00 yuan/kg, down 2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 611,557 lots, and the open interest was 216,295 lots. The night session closed at 20,242 yuan/kg, down 0.21% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 10, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.143%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.695, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long position increased by 1,706 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,001 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 291,869 lots, down 34.80% from the previous trading day [3]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 4,408 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,637 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,266,314 lots, down 35.76% from the previous trading day [3]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,191 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -7.03 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -35.31 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 55.28, up 2.47% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.13, up 5.27% from the previous trading day [5]. Fundamentals - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 31,462 kg, down 33.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288,342 kg, down 12.03% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [6]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the incomplete clearing of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly volatile and strong in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,080 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [7]. - Silver: The silver price is currently oscillating with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is basically stable. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 20,000 yuan/kg - 21,500 yuan/kg [7][8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: On hold [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced volatility, with prices fluctuating around the $5000 mark, influenced by diverging monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve and the White House [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 11, gold opened with a drop below $5000 but rebounded to close at $5024, indicating a day of fluctuation within the $5000-$5060 range [1][7]. - The Cleveland Fed President indicated that current monetary policy is in a "good place," suggesting a prolonged period of stability, while President Trump called for a 2% reduction in interest rates, creating confusion in market expectations [1][7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, have added to market uncertainty, with Trump warning of strong actions if negotiations fail, which could reignite gold's safe-haven appeal [1][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical; weaker-than-expected results (e.g., job additions below 60,000 or rising unemployment) would support expectations for economic slowdown and quicker Fed rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [2][8]. - Conversely, stronger data could indicate labor market resilience, potentially delaying rate cuts and exerting downward pressure on gold [2][8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a wide range of $4800-$5100, with $5000 serving as a psychological pivot point [2][8]. - A breakout above $5050-$5080 could open up potential gains towards $5100-$5150, while a drop below $4950-$4900 could test the $4800 support level [2][8]. Group 4: Trading Recommendations - For trading, it is suggested to consider buying gold in the $5010-$4990 range, with a stop loss at $4980 and a target of $5200-$5150 [4][10]. - If prices fall below $4980, it is advised to abandon long positions [4][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious view on various commodities, with some marked as "cautiously bearish" and others as "cautiously bullish". For example, crude oil, methanol, etc., are marked as "cautiously bearish", while gold, silver, etc., are marked as "cautiously bullish" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple aspects including economic data, geopolitical events, and market trends. It mentions that the US is at a critical stage of its economic cycle, and the global market is affected by various factors such as US employment data, geopolitical negotiations, and supply - demand changes in different industries [1][5]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term, while the short - term is affected by data announcements; the crude oil market is influenced by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels last week. US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 14% week - on - week but increased by 3% year - on - year. As of February 5, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,136,099 tons. The total US soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season reached 23,136,299 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.4%. The US non - farm employment data to be released this Wednesday is expected to show an increase of 69,000 in non - farm employment in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. Futures markets mostly rose at night, with propylene up over 2% and glass down over 1% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. The market is waiting for US employment and inflation data, which may affect subsequent interest rate cut expectations. After a sharp rise in January, precious metals had a significant shock. In the long - term, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases still support the upward trend of gold. The central bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. It is recommended to wait and see for silver due to its high volatility and relatively low gold - silver ratio [2]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran and the US held indirect negotiations in Muscat. The negotiation started well, and both sides agreed to continue. Kazakhstan's oil export volume in February may drop by up to 35% due to the slow recovery of the Tengiz oil field [3]. Stock Index - US stock indexes were mixed. The stock index rose slightly the previous trading day, with the media sector leading the rise and the real estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 523 million yuan on February 9. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [3]. 3. Main News of the Day International News - Ray Dalio warned that the US is at the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, on the verge of order collapse and conflict. He suggested that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [5]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [6]. Industry News - An article in Qiushi emphasized the importance of cultivating future industries for high - quality development [7]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily returns of various overseas markets on February 9 and 10, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, etc. Some indexes and commodities rose, while others fell [8]. 5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market expects the new Fed chairman's policy to be a combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The bond futures price is expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran - US negotiations started well, and Kazakhstan's oil export volume may decline [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.09% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. The domestic production area is in the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weak. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined, and soda ash futures also fell. The glass supply - demand situation is gradually improving, and the supply of soda ash is slightly shrinking. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. They are affected by US data announcements. In the long - term, gold is expected to rise, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver [17]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.17% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.08% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market was flat at night. The aluminum production rate is high, but the downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, low inventory and stable demand support the price [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and production plan of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after volatility reduction [21]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded at night. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand growth is limited. After the Spring Festival, factors such as iron - making production, mine operation, and import policies should be noted [22]. - **Steel**: Steel production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The construction downstream demand is weakening. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The steel mill's demand for iron ore is expected to be based on on - demand replenishment, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US soybean price is under pressure. The domestic soybean meal price is also affected by high inventory and sufficient supply expectations [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia decreased, and the production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continued to fluctuate. The global sugar supply is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price maintained a range - bound trend. The textile factory's restocking is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of direct subsidy policies [29]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures market continued to be weak. The supply in the spot market exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 4.57%. The spot freight rate in February is relatively stable, and the market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the impact of export demand and price increase letters should be noted [31].

策 略 研 究 太 平 洋 证 券 2026 年 02 月 10 日 投资策略 风险与回报 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 核心观点：当风险难以掌控，控制仓位或是春节前的最优解。 股 证券分析师：徐梓铭 交易上重视胜率与赔率，将风险回报比控制在最大是长期交易取得成 功的关键。展望春节假期，不确定性依旧较高，叠加春节长假较长的时间 风险暴露，可能带来潜在的大幅回撤，此时若过于激进，便是将自己陷于 "败兵先战而后求胜"的危险境地。以下几个风险因素可能推动春节期间 的调整： (一)市场对 AI 大规模资本开支态度的转变 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 市场对 AI 大幅资本开支的态度正从乐见转向厌恶。美股科技巨头巨 大的资本开支是美股过去几年在高利率下一路高歌猛进的重要支撑，而此 前甲骨文的资本开支问题已经引发市场的关注，这一次蔓延至了谷歌和亚 马逊。在谷歌和亚马逊披露了未来巨额的资本开支后，5 年期 CDS 跳升， 股价大幅下行，显示了市场在 ...

(一)看涨派 巴克莱：预测短期回调至 4550 美元，理由是美元阶段性反弹与市场超买，叠加 CME 两周内三次上调 黄金期货保证金，或挤出杠杆资金加剧波动。 花旗：警告短期超买，存在回踩 3800-4000 美元可能，建议等待波动率回落再增配。 (三)中性派 摩根士丹利：认为短期金价在 4800-5100 美元区间震荡，需等待美国 1 月 CPI 等数据指引美联储政策预 期，避免追高，建议分批布局。 美国银行：短期看 6000 美元，但提示需警惕美国大选周期与贸易摩擦反复对美元的阶段性支撑，导致 金价高位震荡。 摩根大通：Jason Hunter 团队认为短期震荡是消化涨幅，非趋势终结;将年底目标价上调至 6300 美元， 核心逻辑是央行购金持续、美元信用走弱、地缘风险支撑，强调黄金已成为长期资产配置刚需。 高盛：上调 2026 年底目标价至 5400 美元，指出央行购金重塑需求结构，否认泡沫化风险，美联储降息 预期与去美元化进程将推动金价稳步上行。 所罗门全球市场：Nick Cawley 称当前波动只是 "短期噪音"，几周内金价有望再破 5000 美元，二季度 测试 5600 美元高位，技术面与基本面支撑未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX maintains fundamental resilience during high - level corrections. Despite a decline in the PX - naphtha spread to $335 per ton, it remains at a healthy level. The supply of PX is still tight, and the downstream PTA industry is continuously strong. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA [3]. - The reduction in ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East after a long - term slump has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6th to 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9th, a change of - 1.20 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1783.9 yuan to 1818.6 yuan, a change of 34.72 yuan; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5274 to 1.5391, a change of 0.0117; PTA主力期价 increased from 5166 yuan/ton to 5192 yuan/ton, a change of 26 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 5085 yuan/ton to 5115 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 412.2 yuan/ton to 406.2 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 increased from 448.2 yuan/ton to 468.2 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from (72) to (75), a change of - 3; PTA仓单数量 increased from 103,568 to 104,168, a change of 600 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3743 yuan/ton to 3739 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (195.44) yuan/ton to (194.13) yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased from 3630 yuan/ton to 3635 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from - 102 to - 105, a change of - 3 [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX increased from 898 to 900, a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 294 to 297, a change of 4 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F remained at 7005; POY现金流 decreased from 191 to 164, a change of - 27; FDY150D/96F remained at 7240; FDY现金流 decreased from (74) to (101), a change of - 27; DTY150D/48F remained at 8140; DTY现金流 decreased from 126 to 99, a change of - 27; 长丝产销 remained at 12%; 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 6535 to 6575, a change of 40; 涤短现金流 increased from 71 to 84, a change of 13; 短纤产销 decreased from 56% to 41%, a change of - 15%; 半光切片 increased from 5860 to 5880, a change of 20; 切片现金流 decreased from (54) to (61), a change of - 7; 切片产销 decreased from 64% to 22%, a change of - 42 [3]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX开工率 remained at 85.92%; PTA开工率 remained at 76.73%; MEG开工率 remained at 61.67%; 聚酯负荷 decreased from 78.14% to 77.49%, a change of - 0.65% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA device is currently reducing its load and is expected to be shut down for maintenance on the 15th. A South China 1.25 - million - ton PTA device is expected to be shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 属市场暴跌。交易员将沃什视为最终候选人中最坚定的通胀抗击者，这提高了对美 元构成支撑、削弱以美元计价黄金的货币政策预期。我们认为美国总统提名美联储 前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大 量的获利盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应， 引起了市场的踩踏。美国 12 月 JOLTs 职位空缺录得 654.2 万人，为 2020 年 9 月以 来新低。密歇根大学消费者信心调查：美国 1 年期通胀预期从 4%降至 13 个月低点 3.5%。美国的最新就业和通胀预期数据有利于推动降息。2 月 9 日美元指数收跌 0.78%，报 96.85。伊朗地缘风险持续发酵。2 月 9 日 COMEX 黄金在 5000 美元/盎司 上方窄幅波动、小幅上涨，COMEX 白银涨幅较大收盘站上 83 美元/盎司。金银暂时 未形成新的趋势方向。作为春节假期安排，上期所宣布自 2026 年 2 月 ...