Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The market has digested the impact of Trump's tariff increase on 8 European countries, and the risk - aversion sentiment has slightly recovered. Consumption feedback is negative, with the start - up of primary enterprises under pressure and some planning to have early holidays. The spot premium has declined, while refineries are resuming production and zinc ingot exports are closed, leading to an increase in supply and an expected rise in inventory. However, in the short term, the market is dominated by funds, and the market sentiment switches rapidly, amplifying the zinc price fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,970 yuan/ton to 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3149 dollars/ton to 3207.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 58.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.61 to 7.72. The SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons to 76311 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 106,525 tons, and the social inventory decreased slightly from 11.85 to 11.84 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc, ZN2603, first rose and then fell last week, closing at 24750 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 3.25%. LME zinc reached a new high of 3355 dollars/ton and then adjusted, closing at 3209 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 1.91%. In the spot market, the supply increased, downstream purchases weakened, the spot premium continued to decline, and the trading was mainly between traders. As of January 16th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons, and the social inventory was 11.84 million tons [5][6]. Macro - economic Situation - In the US, the November retail sales monthly rate reached a new high since July, the December core inflation was lower than expected, the employment market was strong, and the 1 - month interest rate cut probability remained low. Trump's plan to impose a 10% tariff on 8 European countries dragged down market risk appetite. In China, the new social financing in December was better than expected, the central bank signaled interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the export and import in December increased year - on - year [7][8][9]. Industry News - On January 16th, 2026, the average domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat, and the import ore processing fee decreased by 4.25 dollars/ton. Starting from April 14th, 2026, LME will not accept certain brand warehouse receipts for registration. A Canadian mining company's mine in Peru is progressing smoothly in resuming production, aiming for commercial production in the third quarter of 2026. Central Asia Metals PLC released its 2025 operation update and set its 2026 production targets [11][12].

- The report discusses the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to model price-volume data and predict future prices. The learned features are mapped to industry theme indices, including the CSI Satellite Industry Index, CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, CSI Biotechnology Theme Index, CSI Big Data Industry Index, and CSI Computer Theme Index[79][81] - The CNN-based model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations for analysis, leveraging deep learning techniques to identify patterns and trends in stock price movements[79][80] - The latest thematic configurations derived from the CNN model focus on sectors such as satellites, nonferrous metals, biotechnology, and computing, reflecting the model's ability to capture sectoral trends[79][81]

政局动荡、地缘风险升级，美联储还被司法部调查……放在任何一个历史阶段，这些都应该是"市场暴跌的完美配方"。 但现实却是，美股继续涨，ETF资金疯狂涌入，杠杆多头创历史新高，波动率接近五年低位。特朗普与市场之间的动态关系是双向的，这一切无疑会促使 特朗普进一步启用此前未曾使用过的策略，要做好应对意外情况的准备。 市场已经"押上全部"： 来源：华尔街情报圈 世界在变天，但市场在开香槟。 第三，波动率太低了，VIX在历史17%分位，人们已经懒得防风险了。 过去3个月，股票ETF净流入4000亿美元，创纪录； 做多型杠杆ETF规模1450亿美元，做空ETF只有120亿美元； 现金仓位降到历史低位； 信用市场几乎不定价风险； 这已经不是乐观，而是集体All in。 市场想法很简单： 第一，经济数据还行，美联储都不急着降息，自然该涨。 第二，如果出现大跌，特朗普会出现让步。市场把"10%回撤"当成政策底，但特朗普的底线可能在30%，这个错位，是未来最大的不对称风险。 风险也愈发明显： 此外，仓位太一致，所有人都在做多，所有人都在忽略政策不确定性。 现在的市场就像一辆在高速上行驶的跑车，路况不错，天气晴朗，引擎状态良好。所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% aims to cool down market sentiment amid a rapid rise in A-share market activity and leverage levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, rising from approximately 2 trillion to nearly 4 trillion in just eight trading days, marking a historical high [2]. - The balance of margin financing has surged to nearly 2.7 trillion, also setting a new record [2]. - The rapid increase in market activity has raised concerns about potential speculative bubbles similar to those seen in 2009 and 2015, particularly given the high proportion of retail investors in the market [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The increase in the financing margin ratio is a regulatory measure to signal caution against excessive speculation and to manage the pace of leverage entering the market [2][3]. - The current market conditions differ from those in 2015, as the average maintenance margin ratio is around 288%, indicating a relatively healthy leverage level [3]. - Regulatory actions have been timely, preventing significant increases in implied volatility across major indices, and the proportion of financing transactions remains below historical extremes [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term cooling measures, the long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by a mature regulatory framework and increasing global competitiveness of Chinese companies [4]. - The logic of A-shares as a reservoir for household funds is gaining recognition among investors, reinforcing confidence in the market's medium to long-term performance [4].

后市来看，兴业期货表示，市场情绪角度，交易所提升风险控制措施，碳酸锂期货减仓下行，价格博弈 强度同步减弱，市场情绪逐步降温；基本面角度，本周周产环比继续增加，冶炼环节保持积极开工，库 存压力虽向上游转移，但总库存重回降库趋势，下游产线检修力度或不及预期，锂价下方存在支撑，走 势或震荡为主。 需求方面，海证期货指出，目前多渠道表示锂电出口退税下调/取消或推升抢出口订单，从而带动一季 度表现淡季不淡的特征。不过仍需关注动力领域需求的季节性变化。 库存端，据光大期货介绍，周度碳酸锂社会库存环比减少263吨至109679吨，其中下游环比下降888吨至 35652吨，其他环节减少720吨至54300吨，上游环比增加1345吨至19727吨。 1月16日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘绿。其中，碳酸锂期货市场情绪转弱，呈现震荡下行走势。 截至发稿，碳酸锂主力合约大幅走低8.99%，报146200.0元/吨。 从基本面来看，华联期货分析称，本周国内碳酸锂维持小幅增长，行业整体开工率维持高位，新增产能 贡献增量。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to move in a volatile manner with limited upside potential due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream plastic weaving for drawstring decreased by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 15, there were few changes in the overhauled units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 24.5% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Due to the escalating turmoil in Iran, Trump's threat to interfere, the lack of progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the sanction bill on Russia, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of downstream BOPP film rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and moved in a volatile manner, with a low of 6552 yuan/ton, a high of 6664 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6592 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.24%. The open interest increased by 7306 lots to 491,662 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PP spot prices in various regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6180 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 15, there were few changes in the overhauled units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 24.5% [1][4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream plastic weaving for drawstring decreased by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 530,000 tons week - on - week, 5,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $750 per ton [6]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around margin trading (融资融券) highlights its dual nature as a financial tool, emphasizing the importance of proper utilization to serve investment strategies effectively [1] Group 1: Comprehensive Significance of Margin Trading - Margin trading reflects market sentiment and investor expectations, with changes in margin balances indicating bullish or bearish outlooks [4] - The activity level of margin trading reveals market trends and potential opportunities, helping investors identify short-term fluctuations and long-term trends [5] - Margin trading enhances trading flexibility, allowing for both long and short positions, and increases market liquidity [7] Group 2: Risk and Limitations - High leverage in margin trading can amplify both gains and losses, necessitating careful risk management [7] - Investors incur costs such as interest on borrowed funds and fees for short selling, which can increase with longer holding periods [7] - Margin trading is limited to specific securities designated by exchanges, and maintaining a required collateral ratio is crucial to avoid forced liquidation [7] Group 3: Market Activity and Stability Indicators - Increased margin trading activity correlates with higher market trading volumes and liquidity, indicating robust investor participation [9] - Stable growth in margin balances may suggest market stability, while significant fluctuations could indicate underlying uncertainties [9] Group 4: Integration with Fundamental Analysis - Margin trading data should be analyzed in conjunction with a company's fundamentals, as strong company performance can present long-term investment opportunities despite fluctuations in margin balances [10]

沪铜早间小幅低开，随后跌幅不断扩大，目前主力合约下跌超过2%。此前在宏观氛围偏暖和贵金属涨 势带动下，铜价不断刷新高位，虽然矿紧支撑持续存在，但需求疑虑不断加重，今日传来消息，特朗普 表示目前不打算对更多关键矿产征收关税，沪铜出现走弱迹象。 （文华综合） ...

US EQUITIES - trading the consensus 美股 - 交易市场共识 Market sentiment has kicked off 2026 on a very strong note. Our Risk Appetite Indicator has accelerated to ~0.9 – a 96 th percentile reading historically and the highest level since early 2025. At these levels, small pullbacks tend to become more frequent and outsized equity returns are rarer. But elevated risk appetite on its own is not a sell signal – when the macro backdrop is supportive, optimistic regimes can persist for longer than most expect. 市场情绪在 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of caution in a bullish market, using the historical example of Sir Isaac Newton's financial losses during the South Sea Bubble to illustrate the risks of emotional trading and market speculation [3][4][18]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1720, the South Sea Company received a charter from the British government to trade with South America, leading to widespread speculation and a dramatic increase in stock prices from £128 to over £1000 within six months, an increase of nearly 8 times [8][10]. - Newton initially profited by investing £7000 and selling at a 100% return, but later succumbed to the fear of missing out and reinvested £20,000, which was equivalent to ten years of his salary [10][11]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Human Emotion - The article highlights that even a genius like Newton could not predict market behavior, emphasizing that the underlying emotions of greed and fear have remained constant throughout history [13][15]. - The fear of missing out can lead investors to make irrational decisions, as seen in Newton's case when he re-entered the market at its peak, resulting in significant losses when the bubble burst [11][18]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advises investors to control their risk by managing their positions and avoiding going "all in" during market euphoria, suggesting that maintaining some cash reserves is crucial for stability and future opportunities [19]. - It emphasizes the importance of taking profits and reassessing one's portfolio during high market sentiment, rather than being swept up in the excitement [19].