Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the "weak reality" of the market remains unchanged with many uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the soybean meal rebound. The market trading sentiment has cooled, and during the off - season of aquaculture, the continuous upward momentum of rapeseed meal is limited [36]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2601 was 2938 on October 23, 2025, up 1.07% from the previous week. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2940, up 0.68% [4]. - The closing price of the main rapeseed meal futures contract RM601 was 2339 on October 23, 2025, down 1.06% from the previous week. The average rapeseed meal price in China was 2460, down 1.60% [4]. - The closing price of the main corn futures contract C2601 was 2140 on October 23, 2025, up 1.37% from the previous week. The aggregated price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2180, up 1.40% [4]. - The closing price of the main live hog futures contract LH2601 was 12200 on October 23, 2025, up 2.48% from the previous week. The average selling price of commercial hogs in Henan was 11.87, up 5.89% [4]. - The closing price of the main egg futures contract JD2511 was 3027 on October 23, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous week. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.86, down 2.39% [4]. Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - The La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year, and the key growing season of South American soybeans may face drought threats with a production reduction expectation [10]. - As of the week of October 16, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1474354 tons. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far reached 5537802 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.9% [10]. - As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 24%, higher than the previous week and the same period in 2024. Brazil's Conab predicted a soybean harvest of nearly 1.78 billion tons this season, a 3.6% increase from the previous year [10]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decline from the previous year [10]. Supply - In September 2025, China's soybean import volume was 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [10]. Demand - The domestic spot market supply remains in a loose pattern, and the oil mill operation rate has recovered to over 60% [10]. - On October 23, the total soybean meal trading volume was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day [10]. Inventory - In the 42nd week of 2025, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 976,200 tons, a decrease of 102,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 9.54% [10]. Supply Side - Import - As of October 24, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 487.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of U.S. West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10 US dollars per ton from the previous week [17]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of October 23, the soybean pressing profit was - 144.20 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20.65 yuan per ton from the previous week [23]. - As of the week of October 17, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2988 million tons, an increase of 62,300 tons from the previous week [23]. - As of October 17, the operation rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 58%, a recovery of 1 percentage point from the previous week [23]. Inventory Side - As of October 24, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.1127 million tons, an increase of 924,800 tons from the previous week [30]. - As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 83,600 tons from the previous week [30]. Demand Side - As of October 17, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 122,300 tons, an increase of 81,800 tons from the previous week [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the probability of a La Niña phenomenon occurring from October to December 2025 has risen to over 75%, which may lead to significant temperature fluctuations during winter in the Northern Hemisphere [2][3] - The report highlights that the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have remained below normal, around -0.5 degrees, confirming the La Niña indicators [3] - It is noted that while La Niña typically results in colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere, other factors such as the strength of East Asian winter winds and Arctic sea ice levels may influence the actual winter temperatures [3] Group 2 - In mid-October, a significant drop in temperatures was observed in Northern China, with many areas officially entering winter earlier than the average date, leading to a temperature decrease of over 10 degrees [4] - The demand for coal in the power generation sector has increased due to winter storage procurement, with average daily coal consumption rising by 12.5% from the previous week [4] - The report mentions that as of October 14, the EU's natural gas storage level was at 83.09%, which is 13.05% lower than the same period last year, indicating a potential rise in natural gas prices if a cold winter occurs [4] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the LNG market suggests a gradual easing of supply and demand, with global LNG liquefaction capacity expected to grow rapidly from 2025 to 2029, particularly in North America [5] - The report anticipates that the price differentials between Asian, European, and North American natural gas markets may narrow, leading to a downward trend in gas prices [5] - The report identifies that the breakeven point for major U.S. natural gas wells is primarily in the range of $2.5 to $3.0 per MMBtu, which may serve as a support line for long-term prices at Henry Hub [5] Group 4 - The report suggests that the increased probability of La Niña may lead to a cold winter, which could elevate natural gas prices in Europe, prompting a focus on upstream natural gas production-related investments [6] - It also indicates that as the global LNG market gradually balances, the price centers in Asia and Europe are expected to decline, benefiting downstream natural gas sales and potentially increasing the penetration rate of natural gas in industrial energy consumption [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in soybean meal futures prices indicate a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, influenced by international trade negotiations and domestic inventory levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Soybean meal futures prices have recently declined, with the main 2601 contract dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, a 10% decrease from mid-August highs, but rebounded by 2.3% in the latest session [1]. - The Chinese soybean import volume for the first three quarters reached 86.19 million tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a significant 15% surge from May to September [2]. - Domestic soybean meal inventories remain high despite a 9% increase in apparent consumption, leading to downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fourth quarter is expected to see a gradual decline in imported soybean volumes, with total arrivals projected at 24.6 million tons, below the estimated crushing capacity of 27 million tons [3]. - The current high inventory levels, with soybean stocks at 7.687 million tons (up 27.49% year-on-year) and soybean meal stocks at 976,200 tons (up 4.16% year-on-year), are suppressing spot prices [2][3]. - Market expectations regarding supply shortages in Q1 of the following year have diminished, partly due to Argentina's temporary tax exemption policy allowing for the purchase of approximately 3 million tons of soybeans [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the short-term outlook for soybean meal prices remains weak, potential tightening of supply in early next year could support prices [3]. - Key variables to monitor include the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the resumption of USDA reports which may adjust yield estimates, and the ongoing La Niña phenomenon that could impact South American soybean production [4].

Group 1 - Recent decline in soybean meal futures prices, with the main contract dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, a 10% decrease from mid-August highs, followed by a 2.3% rebound [1] - Analysts indicate that the price trend of soybean meal futures is diverging from U.S. soybeans, with limited positive support in the domestic market due to high inventory levels [4][5] - China's soybean imports reached 8619 million tons in the first three quarters, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in imports from May to September [4] Group 2 - The fourth quarter is expected to see a gradual decline in soybean imports, with total arrivals projected at 2460 million tons, below the estimated crushing volume [5] - Market concerns about supply gaps in Q1 2024 have diminished, partly due to Argentina's temporary tax exemption policy allowing for the purchase of 300 million tons of soybeans [5][6] - Key variables to monitor include the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, potential adjustments in USDA reports, and the ongoing La Niña phenomenon which may impact South American soybean yields [6]

Market Overview - On October 23, major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index also up by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.09%. The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell by 0.3%. Over 2900 stocks in the two markets rose, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.64 trillion yuan [2]. State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The concept of state-owned enterprise reform gained strength, with notable stock increases: JianKaoYuan (300675.SZ) surged by 20%, while TeFa Information (000070.SZ), TeLi A (000025.SZ), ShenSaiGe (000058.SZ), ShenFangZhi A (000045.SZ), and Shenzhen Energy (000027.SZ) rose by 10% [2]. Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector also showed strong performance, with DaYou Energy (600403.SH), YunMei Energy (600792.SH), and Shanxi Black Cat (601015.SH) each rising by 10%. ZhongMei Energy (601898.SH) and YanKuan Energy (600188.SH) also saw increases [3]. Lithium Battery Sector Activity - The lithium battery sector was active, with ShengXin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) increasing by 10%, and RongJie Shares (002192.SZ) rising by 7.52%. Other companies like Tibet Mining (000762.SZ) and GanFeng Lithium (002460.SZ) experienced significant gains. The main contract for lithium carbonate futures rose by over 4%, with expectations of increased production in October due to new production lines coming online [4]. Quantum Technology Sector - The quantum technology sector performed well, with KeDa GuoChuang (300520.SZ) rising by 20%. Other companies such as DiPu Technology (300768.SZ), DaHua Intelligent (002512.SZ), ShenZhou Information (000555.SZ), and GuoDun Quantum (688027.SH) also saw substantial increases. This surge was driven by Google's announcement of a breakthrough in quantum algorithms, achieving a speed 13,000 times faster than the best supercomputers [4]. Declining Sectors - The oil and gas, as well as engineering machinery sectors, showed weakness, with companies like JianShe Machinery (600984.SH), LiuGong (000528.SZ), HengLi Hydraulic (601100.SH), and Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH) experiencing declines. The pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors also weakened, with Canxin Shares (688691.SH) dropping over 11%, alongside RongChang Bio (688331.SH) and Maiwei Bio (688062.SH) [5].

Group 1 - The probability of the La Niña phenomenon has risen to over 75%, which may lead to "sudden temperature changes" during winter. In mid-October, temperatures in northern China dropped sharply, resulting in an increase in daily coal consumption by coal-fired power plants. Additionally, EU natural gas inventory levels are at a five-year median, and a cold winter could drive up natural gas prices [1] - The five major players in the PTA industry held a meeting to discuss the exit of outdated production capacity and control of incremental capacity. The companies involved include Hengli (16.6 million tons), Xin Fengming (8 million tons + 3 million tons), Tongkun (10.2 million tons), Yisheng (22 million tons), and Sanfangxiang [1] - The PTA industry has been at a profit bottom for 13 years. From 2017 to 2018, significant expansion occurred due to new technology applications, with China's production capacity increasing by 80% over the past six years, while the operating rate has remained around 75%. Both domestic and external demand continue to grow [1] Group 2 - If winter temperatures are lower than expected, it may push up natural gas prices, benefiting natural gas production-related stocks. With the global LNG market expected to remain in a long-term supply-demand balance, Asian and European gas prices are anticipated to decline in the medium to long term, aiding the recovery of price differentials in downstream natural gas sales and reducing energy costs for industrial users, thereby increasing the penetration rate of natural gas in industrial energy use. Attention is recommended on mid- to downstream natural gas sales-related stocks [1] - As of October 23, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.65%, with constituent stocks such as Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 4.63%, Xin Fengming (603225) up 4.25%, Hualu Hengsheng (600426) up 3.61%, Tongkun Co. (601233) up 3.44%, and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up 3.16%. The Chemical ETF (159870) increased by 0.88%, with the latest price at 0.69 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The probability of the La Niña phenomenon has increased to over 75%, which may lead to a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Current European natural gas inventory is at a median level, with a 13.05% decrease compared to the same period last year and an 8.32% decrease compared to the five-year average [3] - The average temperature in the Asia-Europe region is predicted to be higher than historical averages, but there is still a chance of sudden temperature drops due to La Niña [1][3] Group 2 - The daily coal consumption of coal-fired power plants in northern China has increased by 12.5% week-on-week due to rising demand for heating [2] - The global LNG market is expected to see a gradual easing of supply and demand, with North America's LNG export capacity projected to grow by approximately 152% from early 2024 to 2029 [4] - The average gas price in Asia and Europe is expected to decline as the LNG market becomes more liquid and balanced [4]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" due to the expectation of an increase in natural gas prices in the event of a cold winter, which is anticipated to exceed the market average by more than 15% in the next 3-6 months [5]. Core Insights - The probability of the La Niña phenomenon occurring has risen to over 75%, which may lead to significant temperature fluctuations during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere [2][3]. - Current European natural gas inventory levels are at a median level, and a cold winter could drive up natural gas prices in Asia and Europe, presenting investment opportunities in upstream natural gas production [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that the global LNG market supply and demand will gradually become more balanced, leading to a potential decline in gas prices in Asia and Europe, which could enhance the profitability of downstream natural gas sales [4][5]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The NOAA Climate Prediction Center reported a greater than 75% probability of La Niña occurring from October to December 2025, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific remaining around -0.5 degrees, confirming La Niña indicators [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The onset of La Niña is expected to result in colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere, although other factors may influence this outcome. The average temperature across the Eurasian continent is predicted to be higher than historical averages, despite potential cold snaps due to La Niña [2]. - In mid-October, northern China experienced a significant temperature drop, leading to increased coal consumption in power generation. The average daily coal consumption rose by 12.5% week-on-week during this period [3]. - The EU's natural gas inventory is at 83.09% capacity, down 13.05% from the previous year, indicating a potential risk of price increases if a cold winter occurs [3]. Long-term LNG Supply and Demand - From 2025 to 2029, global LNG liquefaction capacity is expected to grow rapidly, particularly in North America, where export capacity is projected to increase by approximately 152% [4]. - The balance of supply and demand in the LNG market is expected to improve, leading to a narrowing of the price gap between Asian, European, and North American natural gas markets [4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the increased likelihood of La Niña and its potential impact on winter temperatures, investors are advised to focus on upstream natural gas production companies. Additionally, as the LNG market stabilizes, downstream natural gas sales may benefit from improved price margins [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges due to the absence of Chinese purchases, leading to a "bumper harvest but unsold" crisis, with exports stagnating and prices under pressure [3][19]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean futures prices have been fluctuating between 1000 to 1050 cents per bushel since October, with weakening supply-demand conditions and uncertainty in global trade [1]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report has been delayed due to the government shutdown, increasing market uncertainty as trading relies on estimates from market analysis firms [2]. - The USDA's September report indicated an increase in U.S. soybean planting area by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, with total production rising by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels, despite a slight decrease in yield [2]. Group 2: Export Challenges - The U.S. soybean export market is heavily reliant on China, which has seen a drastic drop in purchases from 13 million tons last year to zero for the new season due to trade tensions [4][3]. - In the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean exports to China are expected to decline by 8.1% to 22.48 million tons, with the share of total exports dropping from 54% to 44% [4]. - The overall expectation for U.S. soybean ending stocks is increasing due to reduced export demand and rising domestic inventories [2][3]. Group 3: South American Soybean Market - In contrast to the U.S., Brazil's soybean exports are experiencing strong growth, with October exports reaching 2.166 million tons, a 26.5% year-on-year increase [7]. - Argentina is also seeing a rise in soybean pre-sales and export license applications, indicating robust export potential despite recent slowdowns [8][10]. - The overall dominance of South American soybeans in the global market is expected to continue, with Brazil and Argentina benefiting from favorable weather conditions and policy support [12][19]. Group 4: Soybean Crushing and Demand - U.S. soybean crushing remains at historically high levels, with September crushing volume reaching 19.78 million bushels, a 4.24% month-on-month increase [13]. - However, soybean crushing profits are declining due to lower meal prices and competition from Argentine exports, which are impacting U.S. market share [13][14]. - The future of U.S. soybean crushing will depend on domestic biodiesel policies and the ability to maintain competitive pricing against South American soy products [14]. Group 5: Weather and Planting Conditions - The focus has shifted to South American planting conditions, with Argentina experiencing favorable moisture levels for soybean planting, while Brazil faces mixed weather challenges [16][17]. - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence soybean yields, with Argentina showing potential for high yields while Brazil's southern regions may face drought risks [18]. - The overall global soybean market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, heavily influenced by policy decisions and weather conditions [19].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the climate outlook for the winter of 2025 in China, focusing on temperature and precipitation patterns influenced by various climatic phenomena such as La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Temperature Trends**: The overall winter of 2025 is expected to be relatively warm, with average temperatures close to or slightly above the long-term average. However, certain regions, particularly in the northeast and southeast, may experience cooler conditions [5][19][22]. 2. **Precipitation Patterns**: There is a significant disparity in precipitation across regions, with northern areas like Shandong and Henan experiencing more than double the usual rainfall, while southern regions, particularly in Jiangnan and northern South China, are expected to see reduced rainfall [4][14]. 3. **La Niña Impact**: The likelihood of a La Niña event forming this winter is uncertain, but if it occurs, it could lead to increased cold air outbreaks and affect agricultural production and energy demand [5][7][20]. 4. **Cold Air Frequency**: The frequency of cold air outbreaks is expected to be higher in December and February, with January being relatively stable and warmer. The average winter temperature is projected to be close to the long-term average, but extreme cold events may still occur [15][22]. 5. **Regional Variability**: The western regions are predicted to be warmer, while the eastern and northeastern areas may experience slightly lower temperatures. The overall trend indicates that the northern regions will have more precipitation compared to the south [3][13][14]. 6. **Climate Change Effects**: The ongoing global warming trend is expected to lead to more frequent fluctuations between cold and warm periods, increasing uncertainty in weather patterns and energy consumption needs [20][21]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Agricultural Impact**: The persistent rainy weather has negatively affected crop production, particularly in regions like Shandong and Henan, where corn has been reported to rot due to excessive moisture [4]. 2. **Energy Supply Concerns**: While the energy supply pressure for the 2025-26 heating season is expected to be manageable, specific assessments of heating demand under varying weather conditions have not been conducted [21]. 3. **Historical Context**: The long-term trend shows an increase in average winter temperatures since 1961, with a warming rate of approximately 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade, indicating a shift towards warmer winters overall [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the climate outlook for winter 2025, highlighting the expected temperature and precipitation trends, the potential impact of La Niña, and the implications for agriculture and energy supply.