Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant shift in household savings from bank deposits to non-bank financial products, indicating a movement towards capital markets due to low interest rates and a recovering stock market [1][2] - In July, household deposits decreased by 780 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a trend where residents are reallocating their savings into investment vehicles such as bank wealth management, funds, and insurance [1] - The decline in deposit interest rates, with major banks' one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1%, has diminished the attractiveness of traditional savings accounts, prompting a shift towards more lucrative investment options [1][2] Group 2 - The movement of deposits to capital markets signifies a transition from indirect financing to direct financing, which broadens the financing channels for the financial market and supports the development of innovative enterprises, aligning with national economic transformation strategies [2] - Increased efficiency in fund utilization is expected as the central bank injects liquidity into the financial system, aiming for these funds to reach businesses and consumers to stimulate economic growth [2] - The trend of deposit migration is likely to continue, with excess savings expected to accelerate towards equity markets, becoming a major source of new funds for the A-share market [2]

北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）8月中国人民银行中期借贷便利（MLF）操作再度加量。根据人民银行官网， 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月25日人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。业内预计，接下来MLF还会加量续作，并结合买断式逆回购操 作，持续向市场注入中期流动性。 对于下一阶段货币政策走势，人民银行也在报告中指出，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策。根据国内外经 济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的金融环境。 另据Wind数据，在8月25日—29日的一周里，人民银行公开市场将有20770亿元逆回购到期、3000亿元 MLF到期，以及5000亿元6个月期、4000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期。按照对应数据计算，本月 MLF操作实现净投放3000亿元。自2025年3月开始，人民银行连续第六个月加量续作MLF，整体符合市 场预期。 除了通过MLF投放中期流动性外，人民银行在8月8日、8月15日分别开展了7000亿元、5000亿元买断式 逆回购操作 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference is interpreted as a clear signal for a potential interest rate cut in September [1][2] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve's staff forecasts for real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remain consistent with previous predictions, despite concerns over weak consumer spending and adjusted population expectations [2] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include the release of the European Central Bank's July monetary policy meeting minutes and the U.S. second quarter real GDP revision [3] - The U.S. is imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [3] - The U.S. core PCE price index for July and the final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for August will be released [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [2]. Group 1 - The PBOC will carry out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on August 25, 2025, with a one-year term [2]. - With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF injection for August will reach 300 billion yuan [2]. - The MLF is a monetary policy tool that provides medium-term base currency to eligible commercial and policy banks, using a bidding process [2]. Group 2 - The MLF is issued against high-quality collateral such as government bonds, central bank bills, and high-grade credit bonds [2]. - The MLF interest rate influences the cost of medium-term financing for financial institutions, guiding them to provide low-cost funds to the real economy [2].

摘要 2017 年至 2022 年，居民存款快速增长，2022 年达 17.8 万亿元峰值， 增速从 1.1%升至 17.4%。2023 年起增速回落，预计 2025 年降至 10%左右。房地产市场下行和资管产品收益下降是存款增长的主要驱动 因素。 金融监管收紧和资管新规落地导致部分资金回流银行存款。央行推进存 款利率市场化改革，2022 年 9 月至 2025 年 5 月，五年期定存利率累 计下调 135 个基点，短端利率下调 60 个基点，促使资金流向理财产品 等。 随着存款利率下调和资本市场收益增强，居民投资偏好多元化，青睐理 财产品、货币基金等类货币金融产品。债券、股票等风险资产在 2024 年相对收益提升，也吸引部分资金流入。 2017/2018 年是居民金融资产配置的重要拐点，现金存款配置比例上 升，2022 年占比达 85%，表明财富回流存款端。2023 年以来，金融 产品和资管产品投资比例回升至 31%，但仍低于 2014-2017 年水平， 存款类配置比例维持在 70%左右。 Q&A 近年来我国居民存款的变化趋势如何？具体有哪些阶段性的特征？ 从 2018 年开始，我国居民存款进入了一个持续 ...

中期借贷便利，也就是MLF，是央行提供中期基础货币的货币政策工具。中期借贷便利利率通过调节 向金融机构中期融资的成本来对金融机构的资产负债表和市场预期产生影响，引导其向实体经济部门提 供低成本资金，促进降低社会融资成本。 经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，8月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利MLF操作，期限为1年期。考虑到本月有 3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着8月MLF净投放达到3000亿元，为连续第六个月加量续作，符合市场预 期。 ...

交易行情热点 热点一：原油走势震荡，后市分歧加剧 本周原油价格整体呈现宽幅震荡态势，未延续此前偏弱走势。布伦特原油本周上涨2.51%，收67.79美 元/桶；美原油上涨1.00%，收63.77美元/桶。 油价反弹受多空因素交织影响。在供应方面，OPEC月报数据显示，OPEC+7月份石油日产量增加了26.3 万桶，达到2754万桶，说明该组织逐步释放增产的产能，但仍旧低于增产计划，这在一定程度上缓解了 市场的供应担忧情绪。而据EIA数据，截至8月15日当周美国国内原油产量环比增加，产量有触底反弹 的态势，又令原油供应压力加大。 在需求方面，美国EIA原油库存超预期下降，需求端在短期内仍存在季节性改善的迹象，对油价形成支 撑；汽油总产量引申需求环比小幅回升，但整体处于近几年平均值附近，表明炼厂提负带动原油消费， 但是成品油消费增速有待改善。中国地炼预计在9月初迎来开工率爬坡周期，一定程度上可带动原油消 费。 具体来看，8月20日晚间，美国EIA数据显示，美国截至8月15日当周原油库存减少601.4万桶，预期为减 少175.9万桶，较过去五年均值低了5.07%；汽油库存减少272万桶，预期为减少91.5万桶；精炼油 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 18 to August 22, with caustic soda, fuel oil, and crude oil leading gains, while lithium carbonate, coking coal, and the European shipping index saw declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 2.51%, crude oil increased by 1.13%, while lithium carbonate fell by 9.14% [1] - The black coal sector saw coking coal drop by 5.53%, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.51% to $67.79 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose by 1.00% to $63.77 per barrel, indicating a wide fluctuation in oil prices [2] - OPEC+ reported a production increase of 263,000 barrels per day in July, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day, easing some supply concerns [2][3] - U.S. EIA data showed a significant drop in crude oil inventories by 6.014 million barrels, exceeding expectations, which provided support for oil prices [3] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Insights - Palm oil prices saw a weekly increase of 1.40%, closing at 9,592 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply-demand dynamics [5] - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged by 35.4% in June, reaching 3.61 million tons, despite an increase in production [5][6] - Malaysia's palm oil production growth has slowed significantly since August, with exports increasing by only 13.61% compared to the previous month [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Developments - China's fiscal revenue for the first seven months of 2025 reached 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with notable growth in tax revenues [7][8] - Government expenditure during the same period totaled 1.60737 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a focus on social welfare and health spending [8][9] - The fiscal outlook indicates a continued emphasis on supporting economic stability through targeted spending and potential adjustments in land sales revenue [9] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing inflation risks [10][11] - Powell emphasized the need to balance maximum employment with price stability, indicating a shift in policy focus towards employment protection [12] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may initiate rate cuts in September, but the pace will be cautious due to inflation uncertainties [12]

8月22日，央行宣布将于25日开展6000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作。本月有3000亿元MLF到期，这 意味着8月央行MLF净投放达到3000亿元，为连续6个月加量续作。 截至当日，央行还开展了3000亿元买断式逆回购净投放，这意味着8月中期流动性净投放总额达6000亿 元，相当于7月的2倍，也是2025年2月以来最大规模净投放。 本月以来，央行通过多维度、大力度的公开市场操作，为市场注入中长期流动性，精准应对短期资金波 动，保障了政府债券发行与实体融资需求。从二季度货币政策执行报告的定调方向到月末流动性前瞻， 市场分析认为，一系列操作释放数量型货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号，接下来流动性宽松还将持 续，但后续货币政策将聚焦"政策落实"，降准降息时点或后移。 中期流动性净投放翻倍 8月央行在中期流动性管理上显著加力，通过MLF与买断式逆回购"双工具联动"，推动单月净投放规模 创下2025年2月以来新高。 具体来看，8月25日央行开展6000亿元MLF操作，对冲当月3000亿元到期量后，实现净投放3000亿元， 这已是MLF连续6个月加量续作。 买断式逆回购操作同步形成补充：8月8日，开展7000亿元3个月 ...

A 股走高是本周资金波动的主因吗？ —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250824 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3A 股走高是本周资金波动的主因吗？ [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行 OMO 净投放 1365 ...