每经编辑｜陈柯名 日本股市延续跌势。 日本东证指数快速跳水，跌近1.5%，现报3297.96点。 11月18日，日本股市大幅跳水，日经225指数一度下跌超1000点，跌幅超2%。截止发稿，下跌1.77%。 | 今开 | | 49812.95 | | 最高 | 49971.55 | | 成交量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | | 50323.91 | | 最低 | 49107.31 | | 成交额 | | | 振幅 | | 1.72% | | 涨跌额 | -891.35 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.77% | | | 484 | | FF | | 日K | 봄K | | 日K | 个股方面，受隔夜美股科技股走低影响，软银集团一度跌超5%，东京电子、爱德万测试、任天堂等跟跌。此外，资生堂、味之素、迅销等消费股纷纷走 低。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市 -- | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 古河电气工业 | 9636.0 | -6.72% | 6809亿 | | 5801. ...

对于市场关注的降准降息窗口问题，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，年底前央行有可能实施新 一轮降准。背后是综合外部环境波动、国内经济增长动能变化、物价走势以及更大力度推动房地产市场 止跌回稳的要求，以"两个5000亿"政策措施推出为标志，年底前或将陆续出台新一轮稳增长政策，核心 是财政加力、货币宽松，以及更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，近期资金利率有所上行，短期资金面受税期、政府债缴款等因素 扰动，存在阶段性紧张。缺口主要源于政府债券集中发行、同业存单到期压力加大、税期缴款以及"双 11"期间大量资金转入支付机构备付金账户，短期抽离银行体系流动性所致。明明进一步表示，在此背 景下银行融出规模有所下滑，市场流动性并非全面宽松，但整体仍保持均衡合理。 值得注意的是，11月以来，人民银行对流动性的调控呈现"量增价稳"趋势。据统计，11月通过买断 式逆回购已实现净投放5000亿元，规模较10月增加1000亿元，且这已是连续第六个月加量续作。对此， 明明指出，短期资金面受税期、政府债缴款等因素扰动，存在阶段性紧张，凸显了人民银行意在提供更 稳定的中期资金。当前操作利率保持稳定，重点在于维持 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，11月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2830 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量2830亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1199亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1631亿元。 | | | 2、外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，针对日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，中方已经并将继续向日方提出严正 交涉和强烈抗议，严肃要求日方立即反思纠错，收回错误言论，停止在涉华问题上制造事端。另外，在二十国集团领 | | | 导人峰会期间，李强总理没有会见日方领导人的安排。 | | | 3、国务院副总理何立峰与德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。联合声明显示，双方 欢迎符合条件的沪深交易所上市公司在法兰克福证交所发行全球存托凭证（GDR），欢迎符合条件的法兰克福证交所上 | | | 市公司在沪深交易所发行中国存托凭证（CDR）。双方同意推动中德金融基础设施互联互通。 | | | 4、财政部公布数据显示，今年1-10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

新华财经北京11月18日电（崔凯）澳洲联储（RBA）发布的11月货币政策会议纪要显示，委员会全体成 员一致同意维持当前现金利率水平不变，并重申在高度不确定的经济环境下，决策应保持谨慎并严格依 赖最新数据。 会议期间，委员们深入讨论了近期通胀压力、劳动力市场前景以及当前货币政策是否仍具限制性等关键 议题。纪要指出，"潜在通胀压力可能比此前评估的要大一些"，同时承认"金融环境仍然略有限制性"， 但亦表示这一判断的确定性正在减弱。 针对不同情景，纪要提供了条件性政策指引：若需求复苏强劲，现金利率或将维持现状；若劳动力市场 显著恶化或经济增长令人失望，则仍会考虑进一步放宽货币政策。 在全球层面，委员会预计"2025年下半年全球增长可能放缓"，但认为"出现严重下行情况的可能性已降 低"。关于汇率，纪要称"澳元汇率仍接近均衡水平的估计值"，暂未构成重大政策考量因素。 会议还确认，特殊流动性援助的运作安排将保持不变。值得注意的是，纪要提及"无法确定哪种情况更 有可能发生"，反映出政策制定者在复杂宏观环境下的高度不确定性。 （文章来源：新华财经） 自进入本轮宽松周期以来，澳洲联储已累计下调基准利率75个基点，使利率降至202 ...

新华财经北京11月18日电澳洲联储11月会议纪要显示，委员会成员一致同意维持利率不变，并讨论了近 期通胀飙升的影响、劳动力市场的前景，以及货币政策是否仍具有限制性。 会议纪要显示，政策制定者讨论了金融环境是否仍然紧缩。总的来说，成员们认为环境仍然"略有限制 性"，但承认情况可能不再如此。 在当前的宽松周期中，澳洲联储将基准利率下调了75个基点，降至2023年4月以来的最低水平。鉴于劳 动力市场依然吃紧且生产率增长乏力，澳洲联储目前的关注点正转向进一步降息的可能幅度。 会议纪要称："委员们认为，在评估新数据揭示的产能闲置程度、劳动力市场前景以及货币政策限制程 度的判断时，他们可以保持耐心。" 会议纪要还显示，在当前环境下，委员会认为在决策中保持谨慎和依赖数据是合适的。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

2026 年，美股 AI 泡沫会破裂吗？20251117 美股 AI 泡沫叙事持续至 2026 年，或引发市场风险。历史经验表明，货 币政策收紧是刺破泡沫的关键因素，估值虽能显示顶点，但政策变化加 速破裂。 当前美股科技状况处于狂热初期，类似 1998 年科网泡沫时期。标普 100 估值已达历史高位，但 IPO 活动和资本支出相对低迷，表明泡沫尚 未完全膨胀。 2026 年美股 AI 泡沫破裂风险主要来自宏观和政治周期。美联储降息政 策可能导致经济过热，引发通胀和加息预期，或小幅降息后停止，效果 类似变相加息。 市场对美联储 12 月降息预期存在分歧，从 10 月底的 98%降至 40%左 右，反映出美联储官员的鹰派立场和对进一步宽松的谨慎态度。 短期内，AI 相关科技股表现波动，但长期来看，英伟达等公司财报和消 费股业绩将提供更多信号，高频数据显示美国消费韧性强劲，政府重新 开门释放流动性也有助于缓解市场压力。 Q&A 2026 年美股 AI 泡沫的基本情况如何？ 我们认为，2026 年美股 AI 泡沫是一个非常重要的话题。从宏观角度来看，无 论是美国还是中国，都将 AI 科技视为经济发展的重要历程。然而， ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 经济与市 场展望 251117_原文 发言人 00:00 OK, 不好意思，大家上午好。我们今天由于技术原因晚了大概五分钟，而且这个视频也打不开。但今天 的话题是很重要的，我是 Robert 行富强。 发言人 00:12 做出这些判断的部分原因是什么？也是根据最近我们看到的十五规划建议稿已经落地了。中美之间的经 贸协议经过了多轮之间的博弈按下了暂停键，以及我们对美国经济、全球经济明年也有一个判断。 发言人 02:01 总的来讲，首先是美国讲起来 26 年和 27 年，美国经济还是比较有韧性的。特别是 AI 短期来讲人工智 能是带动美国的投资，中长期来讲可能会释放出对生产力的带动，对 26 年和 27 年美国经济还是保持 了一定的韧性。具体从季节性上来讲，26 年的上半年会略差一点。因为有一些今年的政策的滞后扰动， 比如说它的关税的调整，移民政策的收紧。但是看明年的全年到与 AI 相关的投资来托底。可能上半年 签过之后，下半年逐个季度美国经济也会修复。到了 27 年，可能美国的通胀也逐渐的稳定了。AI 人工 智能带动的生产率的提升更加显性化了，使得它的经济在健 ...

这是特朗普政府官员罕见公开承认AI取代初级岗位的担忧。哈塞特还透露美国接近与印度达成贸易协议。他指出美国平均每月购物支出在拜登政 府期间大幅上涨，但自特朗普重返白宫以来几乎没有上涨。同时他强调实际工资和购买力正在提升。 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，人工智能技术正大幅提升美国劳动者生产率，但这可能导致企业放缓招聘步伐，从而令劳动力市场进入一段"平 静期"。 周一，哈塞特在接受媒体采访时表示： 我认为就业市场发出了喜忧参半的信号，企业发现AI使员工生产率大幅提高，不一定必须雇佣刚毕业的大学生。 这位美国国家经济委员会主任表示： 他指出，平均每月购物支出在拜登政府期间大幅上涨，但自特朗普重返白宫以来几乎没有上涨 。哈塞特补充说： 现在是美联储真正以数据为导向的时候了。 AI取代初级工作的担忧并非新鲜话题，但这是特朗普政府官员罕见地公开表达这一观点。特朗普政府一直大力推动AI产业发展，特朗普已签署 多项行政令，旨在减少监管障碍并促进AI基础设施的发展。 货币政策与贸易谈判 在贸易问题上，哈塞特透露，所有贸易协议都获得了豁免，美国"非常接近与印度达成协议"。 这番表态正值特朗普及其盟友试图将政策重点转向民生成本问题之际 ...

美联储，降息大消息 11月17日晚间，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊表示，美联储在进一步降息时应谨慎行事，以免削弱其抗通胀的努力。他重申，随着利率接近中性水平，决 策者需要在行动上"缓步前行"。 杰斐逊说，在2025年迄今为止两次降息25个基点之后，美联储当前的政策立场"仍然具有一定限制性，但已经更接近中性水平"。 杰斐逊的观点具有一定的风向标意义，因为他的立场通常与美联储主席鲍威尔高（301251）度一致。 他指出，实现美联储2%的通胀目标的工作似乎已经停滞，这可能反映了关税的影响。 在谈到政策前景时，杰斐逊表示，他将以数据为指引，在每一次议息会议上逐次作出决定。 18日凌晨，美联储理事沃勒重申，美联储应该在12月会议上再次降息，理由是美国劳动力市场疲软以及货币政策在伤害中低收入消费者。 "由于基本通胀接近联邦公开市场委员会的目标且有证据显示劳动力市场疲软，我支持在12月会议上再次将政策利率降低25个基点。本周晚些时候的9月就 业报告或未来几周的任何其他数据，都不太可能改变我的观点。"沃勒说。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为42.9%，维持利率不变的概率为57.1%。 伯克希尔重仓买 ...