Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Apparel**: In October, the apparel CPI increased by 1.7% year-on-year, showing an acceleration in growth due to factors such as favorable weather and a later Spring Festival, which extended the winter clothing sales season. This is expected to positively impact sales forecasts for Q4, with companies like Semir, Bosideng, and HLA recommended for attention [1][4]. - **Home Textile Sector**: The home textile segment reported better-than-expected performance in Q3, driven by effective single-product strategies and rapid growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival. Companies like Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai Home Textiles are recommended [1][4]. - **Sports and Outdoor Sector**: Long-term optimism remains for companies like Anta and Li Ning, despite slower growth this year. The sector is expected to recover in 2026 [1][4]. - **Retail and Beauty Care Sector**: The retail beauty care segment is advised to focus on changes in the publishing chain and e-commerce services, with companies like Ugreen Technology benefiting from improved Sino-US relations. The normalization of cross-border e-commerce tax regulations is favorable for compliant companies [1][5][6]. Key Financial Insights - **Walmart China**: Reported a revenue growth of 22% in Q3, with e-commerce growth at 30%. Miniso also saw a 28% increase in revenue [1][6]. - **New Oxygen**: The company reported strong financial results, indicating potential recovery in the medical beauty channel [1][6]. Travel and Tourism Market - **Autumn and Winter Travel**: The market is performing well, with significant growth in demand for scenic spots and surrounding areas in November. For example, visitor numbers at Jianmen Pass increased by 30% on the first day of the autumn holiday, and hotel bookings in Zhejiang rose by 68% [1][7][8]. Investment Opportunities - **Service Consumption Sector**: The service consumption sector has seen a short-term adjustment, presenting new investment opportunities. Key areas to watch include OTA, hotels, human resources, and fast-food chains [1][3][9]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: Long-term prospects remain positive, with a focus on overseas expansion. Companies like TCL Electronics are recommended, with 2026 expected to be a critical period for domestic sales [1][10][11]. - **High-End Retail**: There are signs of growth in high-end retail, with companies like Perfect Diary planning a Hong Kong IPO, attracting significant capital interest [1][6]. Sector-Specific Recommendations - **Textile and Apparel**: Focus on Semir, Bosideng, and HLA for apparel; Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai Home Textiles for home textiles [1][4]. - **Beauty Care**: Companies like Up Beauty Group and Proya are highlighted for their strong brand momentum [1][6]. - **Food and Beverage**: The sector may face challenges in Q4, but companies like Dongpeng Special Tea and Yanjin Beer are recommended for their growth certainty [1][15][16]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed outlook across various sectors, with specific companies recommended based on their performance and market conditions. The overall sentiment suggests cautious optimism, particularly in consumer sectors poised for recovery in 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US dollar (USD), driven by higher-than-expected inflation data, with the latest trading around 0.6483 [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, surpassing the previous level of 3.5% and market expectations of 3.6% [1][3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% in December, as current inflation remains above the target range of 2-3% [3]. - The RBA's November meeting minutes indicate a preference for keeping interest rates stable, with only a 6% probability of a rate cut to 3.35% in December according to interest rate futures [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The strengthening of the AUD is contrasted by a weakening USD, with the US Dollar Index stabilizing around 99.80 after a mild decline [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen significantly, with over 84% probability for a 25 basis point cut, up from 50% a week prior [3]. - Supporting factors for this expectation include a drop in the US core PPI, slowing retail sales growth, and a significant decline in the consumer confidence index to 88.7 [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD currency pair is currently in a rectangular consolidation range, with effective support around 0.6420 and resistance at the 9-day moving average of 0.6479 [4]. - A successful breakout above the 0.6479 level could lead the AUD to challenge the psychological level of 0.6500, with stronger resistance anticipated around 0.6630 [4].

美联储在制定货币政策时面临"数据迷雾"，市场转向"数票"模式。12名今年拥有投票权的官员中，已有 5人表示倾向下月维持利率不变，不过美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示近期可能再次降 息，这一表态提升了市场对12月降息的预期，联邦基金期货显示的降息概率从低于30%反弹至60%以 上。分析认为，12月的决议正在成为多年来最接近的表决，降息和按兵不动的概率五五开。 在取消公布10月份CPI数据后，当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工统计局表示，原定于12月10日 发布的11月份CPI数据，将推迟到12月18日，这意味着美联储在12月10日利率决议时，将再度缺少通胀 数据作为参考。 陷入数据迷雾 12月，美联储在制定货币政策时将面临"数据迷雾"。当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工部下属的 劳工统计局（BLS）在官网发布了对多项数据报告的决定，以及一些报告修订后的发布日期。劳工统计 局表示，将取消原定于11月13日发布的10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。声明解释称，由于拨款中 断，BLS无法收集10月份的调查数据，也无法追溯收集这些数据。 近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly reduced the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger dollar and downward pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 1: Market Influences - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 50,000 [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped from approximately 45% to around 30%-40% [2] - The global tech stock market crash has triggered risk-averse sentiment, which may support gold prices in the long term [2] Group 2: Key Price Levels - Resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,110 and the $4,130-$4,140 range; a failure to sustain upward momentum near these levels may warrant short positions [2] - A critical support level to watch is $4,020; if gold stabilizes here and shows bullish candlestick patterns, it may present a buying opportunity [3] - If gold breaks below the $4,020 support, it could open up further downside potential, while a strong breakout above $4,140 could lead to additional upward movement, though the current fundamentals do not strongly support this scenario [3] Group 3: Future Monitoring - The Federal Reserve's policy signals are crucial for the gold market; attention should be paid to speeches from Fed officials leading up to the December FOMC meeting, as any hints regarding interest rate paths could cause market fluctuations [4] - Key economic data, including upcoming inflation figures (CPI, PCE) and the combined non-farm employment report for October and November, will be critical in assessing the U.S. economic condition and inflation trends [5] - The ability of gold to maintain the $4,000 psychological and technical support level is essential; a breach could lead to further declines [6]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the balance between oil price fluctuations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with upcoming U.S. CPI and Canadian inflation data expected to dictate the currency's direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The USD/CAD exchange rate is affected by differences in the economic fundamentals of the U.S. and Canada, diverging monetary policy expectations, and international oil price trends [1] - U.S. core PCE inflation for October was reported at 3.5%, which was lower than expected, while Federal Reserve officials emphasized maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations to 2025, thus supporting the resilience of the USD [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.9%, providing a solid foundation for the USD [1] - In Canada, as an oil-exporting country, the recent decline in international oil prices below $80 per barrel has led to a narrowing trade surplus, creating pressure on the economy [1] - Canada's October CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation showed a marginal decline, leading to market expectations for potential rate cuts next year, which could suppress the CAD [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 1.33520, currently trading at 1.4654, with key support levels at 1.4640 and 1.4630 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.4620, it may trigger a short-term correction, while resistance levels are concentrated around 1.4660, 1.4680, and the upper boundary of the previous trading range at 1.4700 [2] - Technical indicators suggest a gradual emergence of an upward trend, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 23, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 1.4630 and 1.4670 in the short term [2] - If the price stabilizes above 1.4680, the target could shift towards 1.4700-1.4720; conversely, a drop below 1.4630 could extend the downside to 1.4625-1.4610 [2]

Core Insights - The October CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a return to positive growth since July, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, improving for six consecutive months [2] - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first month-on-month increase this year [2] CPI Analysis - The recovery in CPI is attributed to base effects, holiday consumption, and rising gold prices, with food and energy prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline due to last year's low base [2] - Pork prices remain low at -16% year-on-year, while service prices increased from 0.6% to 0.8% year-on-year, driven by strong travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - Travel service prices and gold price increases contributed 0.13% and 0.1% to the core CPI's growth, respectively [2] PPI Analysis - The improvement in PPI is primarily driven by non-ferrous metals, with copper prices rising by 7% month-on-month, leading to significant increases in related prices [3] - The coal price has improved due to anti-involution policies, but steel prices have not followed suit due to low capacity utilization in downstream industries [3] - The main reason for the weak PPI this year is not an imbalance in supply and demand but rather low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [3] Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue a moderate recovery, influenced by last year's low CPI base, but overall improvement may be limited due to potential adjustments in service prices post-holidays and the tapering of old-for-new policies [3] - The PPI outlook remains uncertain due to high bases and global commodity price fluctuations, with ongoing improvements in capacity utilization expected to be gradual [3] - Significant improvements in inflation data will require a restoration of endogenous economic growth momentum and the gradual implementation of anti-involution and growth-stabilizing policies [3]

Core Points - The White House has indicated that key government reports on inflation and the labor market for October may never be released due to the prolonged government shutdown [1][2][3] - The shutdown has severely hindered access to critical economic data, impacting economists, investors, and policymakers [2][4] - The absence of official data has led to increased reliance on private sector reports, which suggest a weakening job market and rising layoffs [4][5] Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has resulted in a significant backlog of important economic reports, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unable to process data [3][4] - The last available unemployment rate was 4.3% in August, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating a sharp slowdown in employment growth [5] - The BLS is expected to quickly release the September employment report once the government reopens, but the October data collection has been severely compromised [5][6] Group 2: Challenges in Data Collection - The inability to collect data in October poses challenges for accurately assessing employment conditions, particularly for household surveys that are crucial for calculating the unemployment rate [5][6] - Former BLS officials have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of completing the October inflation report due to the lack of data collection [6][7] - The prolonged shutdown has created unprecedented disruptions for the BLS, which was already facing budget constraints and political pressures [7]

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett has expressed willingness to accept the position of Federal Reserve Chair if nominated, advocating for more aggressive interest rate cuts in December [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Policy** - Hassett suggests that the Federal Reserve should implement a larger rate cut, ideally by 50 basis points, although he anticipates a more modest 25 basis points cut [1] - He expresses surprise at Powell's lack of aggressive rate cuts given the prolonged government shutdown and better-than-expected inflation data [1] - **Economic Impact of Government Shutdown** - Hassett estimates that each week of government shutdown results in a reduction of approximately $15 billion in U.S. GDP [1] - **Inflation Data** - The inflation data for September was reported to be lower than expected, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

美联储米兰：不应只看通胀数据表面价值。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2% and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, indicating a moderate recovery in prices[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a six-month consecutive increase and reaching the highest level since March 2024[1] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the overall CPI negatively by approximately 0.54 percentage points[11] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive growth of the year, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month[19] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in key industries, effective capacity management, and the release of consumer demand[19] - Prices in the photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing sectors saw a reduction in their year-on-year decline, reflecting the positive impact of industrial upgrades and technological innovation[19] Group 3: Economic Signals and Risks - The month-on-month CPI increase signals multiple positive economic indicators, including the effectiveness of demand expansion policies and the recovery of service consumption[16] - However, potential risks remain, such as insufficient effective demand and the cyclical adjustment of agricultural product prices, particularly pork, which may continue to drag down the CPI[16] - The energy prices remain a significant external variable affecting price fluctuations, influenced by international commodity market volatility[16]