Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing pressure from multiple fronts, including public criticism from President Trump and unusual signals from Fed officials suggesting potential interest rate cuts [3][6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being undermined by political influences, particularly through the weakening of the Labor Statistics Bureau, which affects the reliability of inflation data [3][4] - The current political environment is shifting the focus of monetary policy from economic indicators to trade policies, as indicated by the Treasury Secretary's comments [6][8] Group 2 - The credibility of U.S. inflation data is in question, with nearly one-third of CPI data derived from estimates, leading to potential misguidance in monetary policy [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the dollar and the global financial order is at risk due to the U.S. government's fiscal tightening and its impact on statistical capabilities [4] - The ongoing political battle is reshaping the Federal Reserve's identity and operational independence, with implications for its future role in economic management [8]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data in the U.S. showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The strong employment data has diminished the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July, with the probability dropping from 25% to 4% [3][4] - Market reactions included a decline in U.S. Treasury prices, with the 2-year and 5-year yields rising nearly 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield jumping to 4.34% [3] Group 2 - The report indicated that 73,000 of the new jobs were in state and local government, primarily in the education sector, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000, suggesting that private sector growth was not as strong as anticipated [3] - Despite the strong employment figures, uncertainties remain regarding trade negotiations, and there are concerns about potential price pressures indicated by the services PMI [4] - The increase in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar suggest that dollar-denominated assets may become more attractive, while gold and other safe-haven assets could face pressure [4]

美联储博斯蒂克：近期乐观的通胀数据是由于企业推迟提价以获取关税最终水平的明确性所致。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicates that inflation data reflects a strategy of delaying price increases, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The current momentum in the economy is stagnating, and it is too early to determine if a downturn is occurring [1]

Group 1 - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is drawing significant attention in the gold market, with a recent report outlining four scenarios for a potential shift to monetary easing and their cross-asset impact pathways [1] - The research indicates that in all scenarios, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening dollar will be key market characteristics [1] - Despite an upward revision in economic growth expectations since late April, strong summer employment data and persistent inflationary pressures may challenge the pricing of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - If inflation data continues to improve over the next 1-2 months, the market may further strengthen expectations for earlier and larger interest rate cuts, a shift already reflected in recent asset price movements [1] - The rise in rate cut expectations may stem from improving inflation indicators or the Federal Reserve's confirmation of the "transitory" nature of tariff impacts, with the ultimate asset price response depending on synchronized economic growth fundamentals [1]

KVB App发现在全球货币政策走向备受瞩目的关键时刻，美联储主席鲍威尔于周二在葡萄牙举行的欧 洲央行会议上，再次明确传递出谨慎的货币政策信号。这场汇聚欧美亚各国央行领导人的重要会议上， 鲍威尔强调，鉴于当前美国经济活动保持稳定，美联储将采取 "等待观察" 策略，着重评估关税上调对 物价水平和经济增长的潜在影响，之后才会决定是否重启降息举措，这番表态引发全球金融市场高度关 注。 "我们只是需要一些时间，" 鲍威尔在会议上直言，"只要美国经济状况良好，我们认为谨慎的做法是等 待并进一步了解这些影响可能是什么。" 这番言论清晰表明，美联储在关税政策与货币政策的权衡中， 倾向于以更审慎的态度收集数据、评估形势。近期，投资者对美联储下半年至少两次降息的预期不断升 温，主要源于 4 月和 5 月公布的通胀数据比部分经济学家预期更为温和。但鲍威尔在会议上拒绝就月底 美联储会议作出任何预测，坚定表示经济前景才是最终决策的决定性因素。他进一步指出，无法断言 7 月降息是否为时过早，"我不会排除任何一次会议 (降息的可能性)，也不会直接确定某次会议会采取行 动"，这种模棱两可的表述，既给市场留下想象空间，也展现出美联储决策层在 ...

音频由扣子空间生成 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 美联储主席鲍威尔周二重申，稳定的经济活动使美联储有条件等待观察关税上调对物价和经济增长的影 响，再决定是否重启降息。 该言论发出后，金融市场对美联储最早可能于本月开始降息的押注升温。短期利率期货显示，美联储在 7月会议上降息的可能性约为四分之一，高于之前的不到五分之一。 官员对关税影响的分歧显著 鲍威尔指出，官员们将"特别关注通胀数据的具体表现"，对于劳动力市场，"我们密切留意意外走弱的 迹象"。在上周国会作证时，鲍威尔曾暗示官员们至少可能等到9月会议，以评估关税驱动的价格上涨幅 度。 过去两年显著下降后，一项衡量核心通胀的关键指标目前略高于美联储2%的目标。根据美联储偏好的 衡量标准，5月剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率为2.7%。 官员们普遍预计关税将在今年夏季推高物价。但有两名美联储官员已表示，他们可能支持在7月会议上 尽快降息，因为他们预计关税带来的价格上涨是一次性的。然而，另一些官员更担心，特朗普今年春季 大幅提高进口关税可能重新点燃通胀压力，尤其是在过去几年的高通胀让企业更有经验推高价格之后。 在他讲话的同时，美国5月份的JOLT ...

美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔重申，关税影响预计将在未来几个月的通胀数据中显现，但他也承认不确定 因素依然存在。鲍威尔周二在央行领导人讨论会上说，"我们正在关注，预计夏季会看到一些更高的数 字"。但他补充道，关税影响有可能"高于或低于预期，到来的时间可能早于或晚于预期"，政策制定者 对这些有心理准备。尽管特朗普就降息施加强大压力，但美联储今年迄今未改变其基准利率。(新浪财 经) ...

Macro News - Trump stated that there is no need to extend the deadline and will assign tax rates to various countries [2] - Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Japan due to its reluctance to import American rice [2] - The EU is reportedly willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but seeks exemptions for key industries [2] - Canada has made concessions by canceling the digital services tax, and trade negotiations between the US and Canada will resume with the aim of reaching an agreement by July 21 [2] - Bessent anticipates the signing of a series of new trade agreements, stating that the current issuance of long-term bonds is meaningless, and stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid-July [2] - Despite Republican senators managing to gather votes to initiate debate, the final passage of the bill remains uncertain, with concerns over its potential massive debt scale [2] - Musk criticized the bill as "absurd and destructive," highlighting divisions between hardliners and moderates within the party [2] Institutional Views - Precious metal prices remained volatile in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.83% to $3315.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.11% to $36.33 per ounce [4] - Recent US economic data exceeded expectations, with inflation data slightly higher than anticipated, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, which negatively impacted precious metal prices [4] - The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, has also contributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Future price movements of precious metals will be closely monitored in relation to Federal Reserve policy changes [4] - The projected trading range for Comex gold is between $3200 and $3400 per ounce, while the trading range for Shanghai gold is between 750 and 790 yuan per gram [4] - The projected trading range for Comex silver is between $34 and $37 per ounce, and for Shanghai silver, it is between 8500 and 9200 yuan per kilogram [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant downturn due to multiple macroeconomic and technical factors, with a shift in focus from geopolitical issues to U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators impacting monetary policy [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened last week at $3,380.10 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,391, but quickly fell below the $3,350 support level, which turned into resistance. The price dropped below $3,300 for the first time on Tuesday and fell to a weekly low of $3,256 on Friday, with a slight recovery to around $3,275 [1][5]. Market Sentiment - A recent Kitco survey indicates that the majority of Wall Street analysts are bearish on gold prices, with only 35% expecting an increase, while over half anticipate further declines. In contrast, 51% of retail investors remain bullish, highlighting a significant divergence in views between institutions and retail investors [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Analysts express differing opinions on gold's technical outlook. Some suggest that if gold cannot regain the $3,344 level, it will maintain a downward trend, potentially targeting $3,175 if it falls below $3,258. Others believe that the long-term support for gold remains intact due to inflation concerns and expectations of monetary easing [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. employment data, including ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, are expected to be critical in determining gold's price trajectory. Weak data could reinforce rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resurgence in gold prices [5].