Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data shows a mixed picture with the overall CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.0%, marking the highest level since February [1][2] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged to 98% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that the Fed should consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points in the upcoming decision [2] - Analysts predict a total of six rate cuts by the Fed, with three expected this year and one each quarter next year, ultimately bringing the rate down to 3% [2] Stock and Commodity Movements - U.S. stock markets rallied, with the S&P reaching a historical high, while the dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields declined [4] - Gold experienced volatility post-CPI data, remaining within a trading range of $3330 to $3360 [4][5] Gold Market Analysis - After a significant drop in gold prices, the market showed reduced volatility, with trading primarily around $3350 [5] - The outlook for gold suggests a challenging environment for bulls, with potential downward targets set at $3330, $3315, and ultimately $3245 [7] - Short-term strategies indicate a focus on buying on dips while maintaining short positions at higher levels [10] Silver Market Insights - Silver showed stronger rebound potential compared to gold, with a focus on short positions after a brief rally [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the July CPI data in the U.S., indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to expectations, which increases the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [3][8]. Summary by Sections U.S. July CPI Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below market expectations of 0.2% and 2.8% respectively [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 0.3% and 3% [3]. Factors Influencing CPI - The primary driver for the CPI increase was a 0.2% rise in housing costs, while food prices remained stable and energy prices fell by 1.1% [7]. - Prices for used cars and trucks increased by 0.5%, while new car prices remained unchanged [7]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and stock index futures rose, indicating market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now close to 90%, up from 74% prior to the report [11]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the inflation data may allow the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, with some predicting a significant cut of 50 basis points due to concerns over the labor market [11]. - The article highlights that while tariffs have an impact, the overall inflation pressure appears manageable, which is seen as a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [11].

有迹象显示，随着大体温和的美国7月通胀报告，增强了交易员押注美联储会很快降息的信心。美联储9 月议息会议的悬念，已开始逐渐从"是否降息"变为了"降息多少"…… 一些业内人士眼下甚至已更为看好美联储届时大幅下调利率的可能性。而美国财长贝森特隔夜的一番鸽 派言辞施压，也可能进一步加剧美联储内部的博弈。 贝森特周二表示，他希望参议院能够在9月下次会议之前，确认现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米 兰填补美联储理事会的临时空缺。 市场对美联储大手笔降息的押注升温 从美国固收市场的变动看，数周以来，投资者也已不断涌入掉期、期权和直接做多美国国债的仓位，押 注美联储能在未来几个月降低借贷成本。 他们的预测在周二得到了初步证实：与利率预期关联最紧密的2年期美债收益率，在7月温和的通胀数据 公布后下跌4个基点至3.73%，而掉期交易员则将9月降息的概率上调到了90%以上。 根据美国劳工统计局的数据，7月剔除食品和能源的美国核心CPI环比上涨0.3%。这一数据与经济学家 的预测一致，整体CPI的环比涨幅也符合预期。 "或许仅仅是通胀数据未出现意外上行，就足以让市场继续预期更多降息，"CreditSights投资级和宏观经 济策 ...

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价12日下跌5.1美元，收于每盎司3399.6美 元，跌幅为0.15%。 短期期货交易商小幅获利了结，金价当天小幅下跌。美国股市上涨也打压金价。当天公布的美国通胀数 据接近市场预期，但未完全落入美国货币政策鸽派阵营，黄金市场已从隔夜低点大幅反弹，目前交易大 致处于中性区域。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头近期拥有稳固的整体技术优势。 当天9月交割的白银期货价格上涨15.3美分，收于每盎司37.940美元，涨幅为0.40%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 市场一直押注美联储将在9月17日货币政策会议上降息25个基点。一些分析人士甚至认为，当天温和的 通胀数据可能为美联储在9月份降息50个基点开绿灯。 美国总统特朗普11日表示，美国不会对黄金进口征收关税。特朗普政府关于黄金关税的决定在过去两个 交易日引发了黄金市场的动荡。 特朗普12日在社交媒体发帖督促美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔立即降息，"他总是'太晚'，造成的损失是无 法估量的。"特朗普说，"正在考虑允许 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and U.S.-China tariff policies, which collectively support gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. inflation data for July shows a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with market expectations. Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since January, indicating easing inflation pressures that support the Fed's potential rate cuts and bolster gold prices [2]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, with the likelihood rising from 86% to 94%. Lower interest rates diminish the dollar's appeal and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus favoring gold price increases [2]. - The U.S. and China have extended their tariff truce for 90 days until November 10, alleviating trade tensions and reducing potential inflationary pressures, which enhances gold's attractiveness as a hedge against geopolitical risks [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop on Monday, erasing all gains from the previous week, with bearish signals emerging. Tuesday's trading entered a corrective phase, resembling patterns from mid-June. The short-term outlook remains weak, with a focus on whether the downward trend will continue [3]. - In the short-term structure, gold is currently in a C-3-3 downward phase. A critical support level is identified at 3331; if this level holds, a potential rebound may occur, with resistance levels at 3360/3361, 3370, and 3379/3380. Conversely, if the price breaks below 3331, further support levels to watch are 3322/3321 and 3310 [5].

深夜，美股全线大涨，中国资产爆发！ 截至12日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨483.52点，收于44458.61点，涨幅为1.10%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨72.31点，收于6445.76点，涨幅为1.13%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨296.50点， 收于21681.90点，涨幅为1.39%，刷新历史收盘纪录。 同时，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超1%。热门中概股中，腾讯音乐收涨约12%，小米涨3.81%，Boss直 聘、阿里巴巴涨超3%，拼多多涨3%，网易涨1.6%。 消息面上，美国7月份通胀数据出炉，巩固了降息预期。 昨晚，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月美国CPI同比上涨2.7%，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格 后，7月核心CPI同比上涨3.1%。 观察人士指出，随着企业库存下降，更多承担了高关税的商品进入美国消费市场，逐步推高服装鞋帽、 家具和家居用品等类别产品的价格。 华尔街投行高盛预计，到今年12月时，美国核心CPI以及核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的同比涨 幅都将升至3.3%的水平。目前，外界普遍预计美联储9月将大概率降息，主要原因是美国就业市场出现 降温迹象。不过，美联储官员仍然强 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The article discusses the recent trends in the gold and oil markets, highlighting the impact of economic data and geopolitical events on prices [2][6]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The market reacted to the CPI data with a short-term drop in the U.S. dollar and a spike in gold prices, indicating a temporary optimistic sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a wide-ranging oscillation between $3450 and $3250, with recent price action indicating a potential shift towards a bearish trend [3]. - After testing support levels around $3270/3280, gold prices rebounded but faced resistance at $3410, leading to a significant drop below key support levels [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on resistance levels between $3358 and $3370, while support levels are identified around $3335 to $3310 [5]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market saw a slight increase in prices due to the extension of tariff pauses between the U.S. and major Asian countries, alleviating trade concerns [6]. - Brent crude oil futures were reported at $66.65 per barrel, while WTI futures were at $63.89 per barrel, indicating a stable market environment [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a downward trend, with a potential trading range identified between $62.80 and $64.60 [7].

基本面： 周二（08月12日）白银早盘继续震荡反弹，中美贸易休战延长：全球紧张情绪暂缓中美贸易关系的最新进展，也为黄金价格增添了下行压力。美国总统特朗 普签署行政命令，将与中国的关税休战期再延长90天，这一决定在周二原到期前数小时生效，避免了关税飙升至三位数的局面。目前，中国进口商品面临 30%的美国关税，而中国对美商品关税降至10%。特朗普称中国"表现得很好"，并提到与中国主席的关系非常好，虽然他上周日曾敦促北京将美国大豆采购 量翻两番，但周一并未重复这一要求。美国财政部长贝森特表示，双方已具备达成协议的基础，对未来谈判持乐观态度。这一延期直接阻止了中美关税的急 剧升级，几乎等同于避免了贸易禁运的灾难。原本，5月在日内瓦达成的90天谈判期结束后，7月底在斯德哥尔摩的会晤并未宣布延长，但特朗普的行政令让 市场松了一口气。华盛顿还在施压北京停止购买俄罗斯石油，甚至威胁二级关税制裁。这些举措虽显示出美国的强硬姿态，但整体上缓和了全球贸易紧张情 绪，减少了投资者对黄金的避险配置。如果中美谈判取得实质进展，黄金的"贸易战溢价"将进一步消退，推动价格向更低水平探底。 ---当日金银报价--- 现货黄金报3350附近美元 ...

尽管对美国经济数据可靠性的质疑日益加剧，但金融市场却对任何"超预期"的信号表现出异常强烈的反应，尤其是通胀数据。 面对一个依赖数据的中央银行，这种矛盾现象正挑战着传统的市场分析框架。据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Jan Hatzius及其团队的最新报告显示，包括 非农就业、CPI在内的多项美国顶级官方调查，其数据质量正因调查回复率的持续下降而受到侵蚀。 不过报告也指出，并非所有指标的修正幅度都在扩大。近年来，经历较大修正的指标（17个）与较小修正的指标（15个）数量几乎相当。一些指标的大幅 修正另有原因，例如初请失业金人数和纽约联储制造业指数的修正，主要是为了修复疫情期间引入的季节性扭曲。 然而，数据质量的下降并未削弱其市场影响力。报告显示，市场对数据意外的敏感度自三年前急剧上升后，至今仍维持在高位。这种反应在通胀数据上尤 为突出，债券市场对通胀意外的敏感性仍达到正常水平的2.7倍，股市敏感性为正常水平的1.4倍。 这种数据质量下降直接推高了标准误差，使得数据点估计值的置信区间扩大。高盛分析显示，目前标准误差平均比2015-2019年高出26%，其中职位空缺 数据的标准误差增加87000个，相当于90%置信区间 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop of 1.6% following President Trump's announcement that there will be no tariffs on imported gold [1] - The international gold price saw a decline of over 2%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months, as investors await upcoming inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [1] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened due to the potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased market caution [1] Group 2 - After a significant bearish movement, indicators for gold have entered an oversold state, suggesting that a strong rebound is possible without further major declines [2] - The market is exhibiting caution ahead of the upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting, with oil prices also showing a consolidation pattern after previous declines [2]