Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment continues to show high growth, with significant increases in municipal and water conservancy investments, which grew by 26.0% and 36.8% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter of 2025 [1][2] - New signed orders for construction companies indicate a recovery in infrastructure sentiment, with notable increases in orders for major companies such as China Construction and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1] - The report suggests focusing on the conversion rhythm of physical workload in infrastructure and investment opportunities in high-sentiment provinces like Sichuan [1] - The report highlights the potential for cyclical recovery driven by warming physical volumes in infrastructure and real estate, alongside expectations for policy support amid tariff impacts [1] - The report recommends monitoring the recovery of international engineering projects along the Belt and Road, particularly in Europe and ASEAN [1] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In the first three months of 2025, infrastructure investment showed a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with a monthly increase of 12.6% in March [1] - New special bonds issued in Q1 amounted to 960.2 billion, an increase of 326.1 billion year-on-year, providing strong support for infrastructure investment [1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area decreased by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a monthly decline of 1.6% in March [2] - New construction area saw a significant drop of 24.4% year-on-year, while the completion area decreased by 14.3% [2] Cement and Glass Industry - Cement production in the first quarter was 331 million tons, a decline of 1.4% year-on-year, but March saw a recovery with a 2.5% increase [3] - The average cement price remained stable at 402 yuan per ton as of April 13, with expectations for price increases in early April [3] - Flat glass production fell by 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, but market trading conditions are gradually improving [4] Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Construction, and China Electric Power, all rated as "Buy" [15]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **engineering machinery** industry, which is considered the most stable choice currently due to positive data from January despite fewer working days compared to last year [1] - The demand in **Eastern Europe** is expected to restart as geopolitical conflicts ease, with some engineering machinery companies making advancements in AI and robotics [2] Key Insights - The **real estate** sector shows no significant improvement, but demand for excavators and related machinery is driven by infrastructure projects such as municipal, renewable energy, and agricultural water conservancy [3] - Recommended companies in the engineering machinery sector include **Sany Heavy Industry**, which is expected to perform well due to its involvement in infrastructure projects [3] - Companies with low valuations and good performance, such as **Flagship Zhonggong** and **Zhengmei Machinery**, are also highlighted. Flagship Zhonggong benefits from water conservancy projects, while Zhengmei Machinery is diversifying its product offerings despite a downturn in the coal industry [4] Additional Considerations - General enterprises showed stable performance in January, with orders remaining flat or slightly increasing despite the reduced working days during the Spring Festival [5] - The **automation sector** is ranked third, while the **export sector** faces challenges due to proposed tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which could affect Chinese goods as well [6][7] - The anticipated tariffs are expected to be 10%, not cumulative, as the previous tariffs announced in February will not take effect until March 4 [7] - Despite the potential for increased tariffs, some companies, like **Quxin Technology**, have already relocated production to Southeast Asia, mitigating the impact of tariffs [8] - Companies like **Dingli** are expected to benefit from a decrease in anti-dumping duties, making their overall situation better than last year despite new tariffs [9][10] Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch in the export sector include **Juxing Technology**, **Yindu Co.**, **Zhejiang Dingli**, **Chunfeng Power**, and **Jiechang Drive** [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation as a more controllable option for China, suggesting that the focus should be on domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a response to the uncertainties brought by the "reciprocal tariffs" initiated by the U.S. [5][6] - The high-purity quartz sector is highlighted as a leading area, with domestic companies expected to benefit from the potential increase in import costs due to tariffs, making long-term domestic substitution promising [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index decreased by 2.4% while the overall market indices saw declines of 3.1% to 6.7% [9] - Notable stock performances included a 29.0% increase for Zhongqi New Materials and a 19.9% decrease for Jingxue Energy Saving [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement is 396.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8 yuan/ton week-on-week, but an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton year-on-year [15] - The national cement inventory ratio is 60.2%, up 3.3 percentage points week-on-week [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1413.0 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 6.3 yuan/ton week-on-week [33] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 yuan/square meter, remaining stable week-on-week [38] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price for non-alkali glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [45] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week [49] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tariff disputes initiated by the U.S. and their implications for the construction materials sector, highlighting the potential for increased domestic production and substitution [14] - The discovery of high-purity quartz mines in China is noted as a significant development that could reduce reliance on imports [14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn amid global market declines, with the ChiNext index falling over 1% and more than 4,000 stocks declining [1][2][4] Market Performance - A-shares showed resilience compared to significant declines in US and Japanese markets, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 3% and Nikkei 225 over 4% [5] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.2 trillion, with defensive sectors like precious metals, electricity, and banking rising against the trend, while sectors like photovoltaic and brokerage faced significant declines [4] Impact of Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump's upcoming announcement of a large-scale tariff plan, referred to as "liberation day," is expected to create volatility in global markets, affecting A-shares [8] - Analysts predict that the short-term pressure on A-shares will be significant, but the medium to long-term outlook remains resilient due to improved fundamentals and policy support [8][9] Sector Analysis - Industries with high export exposure, such as textiles, home appliances, and automotive parts, are likely to face significant impacts from the tariff plan [9] - Conversely, sectors like agriculture (due to high import dependence) and military (due to geopolitical uncertainties) may benefit from the situation [9] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the short term, considering increasing holdings in gold and high-dividend sectors while avoiding high-leverage technology stocks [9] - In the medium term, opportunities may arise in AI applications, consumer recovery, and domestic alternatives such as domestic chips and military sectors [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings disclosure period in April is expected to see rapid style rotation in the market, with a focus on performance, dividends, and value [10][13] - The correlation between stock prices and earnings is anticipated to be strongest during this period, making it crucial for investors to pay attention to fundamentals [10][13] Sector Outlook - Three main directions are highlighted for investment based on earnings forecasts: 1. **Cyclical sectors** such as non-ferrous metals and engineering machinery are expected to show strong performance [15] 2. **Technology growth sectors** like SOC, semiconductor equipment, and memory interface chips are projected to have high earnings certainty [16][19] 3. **Dividend sectors** are expected to maintain stable growth, making them suitable for long-term investment [20]

Group 1 - A50ETF Huabao (159596) achieved a trading volume of 67 million yuan with a turnover rate of 5.46%, ranking first among its peers [1] - The market is gradually focusing on high-performance, dividend, and low-volatility stocks as it approaches the earnings season in April [2] - There is an expectation for a rotation towards low-priced, high-performance stocks with strong earnings improvement potential [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in April, particularly in the first half, due to various internal and external disturbances [3] - Domestic macro policy expectations may shift due to an important meeting at the end of April, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy support [3] - Investment strategies should target sectors that have lagged behind, are undervalued, and have potential policy catalysts [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: stable banks and insurance with long-term strategic value, consumer sectors supported by policy, and metals with economic support [4] - A50ETF Huabao (159596) and its off-market linked funds (Class A 021216/Class C 021217) are recommended for investment [5] - MACD golden cross signals indicate positive momentum for certain stocks [6]

Group 1 - The market is transitioning from "speculating on expectations" to "verifying performance," with a focus on the upcoming Q1 earnings reports, particularly in April, which is historically a month with strong correlation to fundamental performance [2][20][25] - A recovery in revenue and profit growth is anticipated for Q1, with industrial profits showing signs of improvement, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery [6][25][27] - The performance of small-cap indices is expected to follow historical patterns, with a focus on fundamentals after April [3][22] Group 2 - Economic cycle assets are showing signs of marginal improvement, with structural recovery in certain sectors such as non-ferrous metals and engineering machinery, despite a lack of broad-based recovery [8][29][38] - The banking sector is expected to face pressure on interest margins, while non-bank financials may see negative growth due to high base effects from the previous year [39] - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in the liquor segment, while the tourism sector remains robust [39] Group 3 - The technology sector is expected to maintain high growth, with specific focus on SOC, semiconductor equipment, and optical modules, driven by demand in IoT and AI applications [11][42][45] - The sentiment in the technology sector has returned to a safe zone, providing opportunities for re-entry into growth stocks [42][47] - The export chain is anticipated to perform well during the earnings season, with specific attention on sectors like electric tools and home appliances [15][49][51] Group 4 - Stable value assets are projected to maintain steady growth, with dividends expected to remain a reliable long-term investment [17][56] - The public utility sector is expected to show stable earnings, supported by rigid supply and utility characteristics [17][56] - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes increasing in major cities [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see a narrowing decline in revenue for 2024, with profit growth returning to positive territory. The decline in net interest margin is better than that of peers [1][20] - Wealth management capabilities are strong, with steady growth in retail customer base. Overall asset quality remains stable, although risks in retail loans are still emerging [1][20] - For 2025, retail demand is anticipated to marginally improve, with plans to increase loan growth to 7%-8%. While net interest margin pressure persists, the decline is expected to narrow, and fee income is projected to perform better than last year [1][20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 337.49 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year, significantly better than the 2.9% decline in the first three quarters [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [4] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.95%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1 basis point [2][13] Asset Quality - The company’s asset quality appears stable, but the non-performing loan generation rate continues to rise, particularly in retail loans [13][17] - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 411.98%, down 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating a slight release of provisions to support profit growth [13][19] Wealth Management and Customer Growth - Wealth management income decreased by 21% in 2024, but the retail customer base grew steadily, reaching 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [18][28] - The total retail AUM reached 14.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [18][28] Capital Adequacy and Dividend Policy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose to 14.86%, indicating strong internal growth capacity and low refinancing risk [19] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 35.3%, slightly up from the previous year, suggesting sustainable high dividend returns [19][22] Future Outlook - The company plans for a loan growth of 7%-8% in 2025, with expectations of a challenging environment for revenue growth due to recent adjustments in the bond market affecting non-interest income [10][20] - The report emphasizes the company's robust asset quality and solid provisioning base, projecting continued profit growth and leading ROE in the industry [20][22]

市场上行趋势并未打破，财报季寻找顺周期和科技 的景气线索，中证A500ETF摩根（560530）交投活 跃 中银证券：市场上行趋势并未打破 中银证券表示，短期市场存在一定震荡调整的需求，但中期来看上行趋势并未打破。3月下旬，A 股即将进入财报窗口期，市场风险偏好或迎来阶段性震荡。当前中国资产部分重估的逻辑已经基本阶段 性计价，市场短期上行动能或有所趋缓。但当前国内基本面修复预期并未证伪，年内基本面弱修复的主 线仍在。 年初以来财政发力效果仍在持续显现，A股盈利有望修复；而当前全A ERP仍处于一倍标准差下沿 水平，盈利弱复苏周期成立的前提下，ERP仍有较强的修复空间及动能。因此，市场短期调整而非趋势 反转，信号上需要观察中美科技资产盈利估值比价，及国内基本面数据演化趋势。 短期调整之下，可以关注具备较强防御性与红利优势的部分赛道，重点关注：包括产业趋势强化、 保持高景气的新兴消费，政策催化、估值合意的中药，绿电趋势催化、行业现金流稳定的水电、核电， 有望受益于实体融资需求回暖的、稳定股息分红的国有银行，稳定现金流、近期有供给端催化的煤炭。 华西证券：如何理解本轮"回踩行情"？ 3月24日，中证A500ETF摩 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6%, the CSI 300 Index down 2.29%, and the Wind All A Index down 2.1% [1] - Industry performance varied, with construction materials, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities showing strong results, while sectors like computers, media, electronics, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] - The market style is leaning towards mid-cap value stocks, with an average daily trading volume of 15,496.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.41% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic data for January and February showed overall improvement, especially considering the high base from the previous year; the GDP growth rates for the first two quarters of last year were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with expectations for a smoother performance this year [2] - If macro data remains stable, certain cyclical sectors may outperform expectations, requiring analysis based on industry characteristics [2] - Industries experiencing upward inventory cycles are noteworthy, as they have struggled for investor recognition in the past two years, and current downstream replenishment activities may lead to valuation and performance increases [2]

Group 1 - The technology stock bull market that began after the Spring Festival continues to this day [1] - As the valuation repair approaches its end, the market logic will gradually shift towards performance-driven factors during the earnings season [2] - The market will face a new round of selection, and stock price fluctuations are inevitable [3] Group 2 - There are key questions regarding how to identify the strengths and weaknesses of companies, manage the operation rhythm of large-scale market trends, and layout strategies in the context of cyclical recovery [4] - The upcoming live broadcast on March 23 will feature industry chiefs and senior strategy analysts discussing market trends and investment strategies to help investors clarify their investment thoughts and seize opportunities [5][6]