Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the characteristics of the U.S. stock market, emphasizing its long-term investment potential despite short-term fluctuations [3][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described this rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the Fed is not entering a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, which the market interpreted as a hawkish stance [6]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Characteristics - The U.S. stock market is characterized by high efficiency and low investment difficulty, meaning that information is quickly reflected in stock prices due to the active trading environment [8]. - The market is dominated by institutional investors who possess advanced research capabilities and technology, allowing for rapid information processing and trading [10]. - The diverse participant structure in the U.S. market, including hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds, leads to comprehensive information analysis and price discovery [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors face challenges in outperforming indices due to the market's efficiency, making long-term holding of low-cost index funds a more rational strategy [12][13]. - The strong fundamentals of U.S. companies, coupled with significant stock buybacks, have driven the long-term bull market, with the S&P 500's price increase primarily attributed to earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [14][16]. - Major U.S. companies have demonstrated robust profitability and have engaged in substantial stock repurchase programs, enhancing earnings per share and supporting stock price appreciation [18][19]. Group 4: Complementarity with A-shares - The article highlights the low correlation between U.S. and A-share markets, suggesting that holding both can mitigate overall portfolio volatility during market downturns [22][26]. - Historical data indicates that during A-share bear markets, U.S. stocks have either remained stable or declined less, providing a buffer for investors [28]. - A balanced allocation between U.S. and A-shares allows investors to capture opportunities in both markets while managing risk effectively [32][34].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, as reflected in the dot plot [2][6] - Powell described the recent rate cut as a "risk management" decision, suggesting a cautious approach to future monetary policy [4][6] - The Fed's focus on employment risks has increased, indicating a potential shift in the labor market dynamics, with a "weak supply and demand" scenario [3][6] Group 2 - The economic forecast for GDP growth has been slightly revised upward to 1.6% for the year, primarily driven by investment [6][7] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% by year-end, despite concerns about labor market weaknesses [6][8] - Inflation expectations remain unchanged, with the PCE forecast at 3.0% for the year, indicating a stable inflation outlook [6][8] Group 3 - The Fed's balance sheet reduction remains unchanged, with a current pace of $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for MBS [3][9] - There is a potential for the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction by Q4, as bank reserves approach a critical threshold [9][10] - Current liquidity conditions in the dollar system are tightening, which may prompt the Fed to reconsider its balance sheet strategy [10] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a consumption-driven model to one driven by investment, which may lead to structural changes in employment data [7][8] - The impact of immigration policies on labor supply could keep unemployment rates stable despite a declining non-farm employment trend [8] - The dollar index is expected to strengthen, while the RMB may appreciate against the dollar, reflecting a dual bullish trend for both currencies [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - On September 18, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25BP to 4%-4.25%, the first rate cut in 2025. The 9 - month rate cut was "expected", with market expectations of a rate cut in September remaining high. The Fed showed restraint, and Powell's stance was "neutral - hawkish". The rate cut was a "risk - management" one, denying an economic recession. The Fed is expected to cut rates by another 50BP this year. Overseas asset volatility will decline in the short - term, and the stock - bond trajectory remains unchanged. For the domestic market, overseas rate cuts do not affect domestic policy rhythms, and equities may see an emotional boost while the bond market is unlikely to follow [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog Fed's Policy Adjustment and Outlook - The Fed's monetary policy framework adjustment focuses more on employment in the short - term. Powell pointed out that employment growth has slowed and the risk of employment decline has increased, putting employment issues before "recent inflation increases" [3]. - Although economic activity has slowed, the Fed is still optimistic and raised its economic growth forecast. The forecast for the annual real GDP growth rate in 2025 was raised from 1.4% to 1.6% [3]. - The Fed is more tolerant of inflation, believing that current inflation may be temporary. It raised the inflation forecast for 2026 while lowering the forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026. The 2026 PCE and core PCE were both raised by 0.2pct to 2.6%, and the 2026 federal funds rate forecast was lowered from 3.6% to 3.4% [4]. - Most Fed officials think there will be another 50BP rate cut this year. According to the dot plot, 9 out of 19 voting members believe the year - end benchmark interest rate should be in the 3.5% - 3.75% range, and 1 member thinks it should be in the 2.75% - 3% range [4]. Impact on Overseas and Domestic Markets - For overseas markets, US stocks and bonds have priced in the rate cut. The 25BP rate cut will not cause market fluctuations. The subsequent rate - cut rhythm is likely to be neutral and stable, and it is expected to cut rates by another 50BP this year. Commodities such as gold, silver, and copper may experience short - term shock and correction after the rate cut [6]. - For the domestic market, overseas rate cuts do not affect domestic policy rhythms. The scenario where overseas rate cuts open up domestic policy space will not happen. Under the current risk preference and liquidity environment, there is not much need for further rate cuts. Overseas rate cuts will not change the "stock - strong, bond - weak" trend. Equities may receive an emotional boost, while the bond market is unlikely to follow [6].

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not on the rate cut magnitude but on the independence of the Federal Reserve amid new member Milan's rapid joining and legal issues faced by member Cook[3] - Only Milan supported a 50bp rate cut, while Waller and Bowman, who previously voted against, aligned with the majority this time[3] - The labor market dynamics are worse than in June, contradicting Waller's earlier stance that tariffs should be excluded when considering inflation, which would suggest a larger rate cut[3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The median forecast for a rate cut in 2025 was raised from 50bp to 75bp, with only 9 out of 19 members supporting this, indicating a precarious consensus[7] - The FOMC's economic outlook was optimistic, raising 2025 GDP growth to 1.6% and 2026 GDP to 1.8%, while lowering the 2026 unemployment rate to 4.4%[10] - Powell's performance during the meeting was deemed satisfactory in maintaining the Fed's independence, despite political pressures from Trump[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Implications - Risks include increased political uncertainty from Trump, leading to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[6] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected synchronized easing, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[6] - The Fed's independence has resulted in gold being the biggest loser in the market, with a 10% increase in gold prices since the Jackson Hole meeting reflecting prior market expectations of reduced Fed independence[10]

华夏时报记者 帅可聪 北京报道 2025年9月18日凌晨，美联储公布议息会议结果，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%– 4.25%，符合市场广泛预期。 当天早盘，A股三大指数小幅震荡走强，上证指数盘中一度逼近3900点关口。 在美联储宣布降息后，美股和黄金先涨后跌，美债收益率和美元指数先降后升。美股三大指数最终收盘 涨跌不一，道指小幅上涨0.57%，纳指、标普500指数分别下跌0.33%、0.1%。 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒分析称，美联储降息对中国股市、债市和人民币汇率偏利 好。全球流动性宽松有助于为中国股市提供增量资金，中国货币政策空间增大将带动债券收益率下行， 美元承压有利于人民币汇率稳定。 预计年内还有两次降息 这是美联储自2024年12月以来时隔9个月重启降息，25个基点的降息幅度符合市场普遍预期。 美联储最新公布的经济预测摘要和点阵图整体释放出宽松信号。点阵图显示，联储官员们对年底联邦基 金利率的预测中值为3.6%，对应再降息两次，这比6月时的预测多了一次。 美联储整体偏鸽，但步伐仍偏谨慎。中国银河（601881）证券首席宏观分析师张迪指出，与7月声明仍 强调"劳动力市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant drop following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with all three major indices closing down over 1% and more than 4,300 stocks declining [2][4][5] Group 1: Market Reaction to Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected within the year, totaling 50 basis points [3] - A-shares saw a sharp decline after initially rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearly losing the 3,800-point mark [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The A-share market's drop was attributed to several factors, including weakness in financial heavyweight stocks, a technical correction following the Fed's rate cut, and psychological pressure at key market levels [6] - The total trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the first time since August 29, marking a significant increase in market activity [5] - Despite the overall market decline, certain sectors like precious metals and semiconductors showed resilience, with some stocks experiencing significant gains [5] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut could stabilize the A-share market's slow bull trend, potentially leading to increased foreign investment [7] - The impact of the Fed's actions on global liquidity conditions may improve market sentiment and provide opportunities for investors to buy quality stocks during market corrections [6][7] - Historical data indicates that following Fed rate cuts, the Shanghai Composite Index has a higher probability of rising over the next 90 days compared to the Dow Jones [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and there is still an expectation of a further cut next month. It is recommended to lay out long positions in lead prices on dips [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,145 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread was 45 yuan/ton; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,005 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 US dollars; the Shanghai lead open interest was 91,530 lots, down 2,401 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 888 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 49,375 tons, down 9,843 tons; the SHFE inventory was 66,561 tons, down 273 tons; the LME lead inventory was 225,350 tons, down 2,500 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,975 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 17,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract was - 170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 46.43 US dollars/ton, up 3.18 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,296 yuan, up 42 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, down 1,900 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was - 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 815.37 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,137.5 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million units, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other batteries was 2,169.23 points, up 15.5 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles [3] Industry News - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with only Milan voting against and supporting a 50 - basis - point cut; Powell said the labor - market risk was skewed downward, and this rate cut could be understood as a risk - management rate cut; the dot - plot median implied a total of three rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and one next year, while Milan hoped for a total of 150 - basis - point cuts this year; Powell continued to implicitly express concerns about stagflation; the EU announced sanctions against Israel; Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement; multiple Middle - Eastern Gulf countries followed the Fed in cutting interest rates; the Brazilian central bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 15%, in line with expectations; the Canadian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, in line with market expectations, and removed the forward - looking guidance on rate cuts from the policy statement [3]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the precious metals market was under significant pressure and retraced. After the interest rate cut decision was announced, the precious metals market maintained a downward trend due to the outflow of long - position funds after the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled. The subsequent trend will depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. In the short term, the market lacks further positive catalysts after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, and the precious metals market may enter a volatile range. The strategy is to try short positions lightly when the price is high and focus on range - band trading [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 824.1 yuan/gram, down 10.98; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9835 yuan/kilogram, down 71. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 87731 lots, down 8276; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 395854 lots, up 223963. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 168591 lots, up 3052; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122144 lots, up 3040. The gold warehouse receipt quantity was 56430 kilograms, up 2304; the silver warehouse receipt quantity was 1203523 kilograms, down 17905 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 829.6 yuan/gram, down 5; the silver spot price was 9834 yuan/kilogram, down 92. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.78 yuan/gram, up 3.26; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 1 yuan/kilogram, down 21 [2]. 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 975.66 tons, down 4.29; the silver ETF holdings were 15189.61 tons, down 28.23. The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 261740 contracts, up 12210; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 53937 contracts, down 1986. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 4. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.59%, up 2.29; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.67%, down 0.34. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.32 [2]. 5. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month pause. The FOMC statement pointed out that the downside risks in employment have increased, economic growth has slowed down in the first half of the year, and inflation has risen. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is over 90%. The US new housing starts in August decreased from 1.429 million units in July to 1.307 million units, far lower than the expected 1.365 million units. Building permits decreased from 1.362 million units in July to 1.312 million units, the lowest since May 2020. Japan's export value in August decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 87.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 1.1%, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 19.0%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points is 79.9% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's independence and the pressure it faces from political figures, particularly Trump, regarding interest rate decisions and economic growth expectations [2][18]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not only on the interest rate cut magnitude but also on the dynamics within the committee, including new member Milan's rapid inclusion and the legal issues faced by member Cook [4]. - Only member Milan supported a 50 basis point rate cut, while other members, including Waller and Bowman, aligned with the majority [4]. - The median forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was raised from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, but only 9 out of 19 members supported this adjustment [4]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The FOMC members have become more optimistic about the economy, raising the GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.8%, while lowering the unemployment rate for 2026 to 4.4% [5]. - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were increased to 2.6% from 2.4% [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold emerged as the biggest loser from the FOMC meeting, despite being one of the best-performing asset classes since the Jackson Hole meeting, with a 10% increase attributed to market reactions to the Fed's perceived loss of independence [6]. - Other assets showed limited volatility, but the market's expectation for a series of 25 basis point rate cuts was met [8]. Group 4: Labor Market Concerns - Powell expressed significant concerns regarding the labor market, introducing the term "risk management cut" to describe the Fed's approach to rate cuts, which may suppress the likelihood of consecutive cuts [13]. - The labor market is facing pressures from reduced immigration and weakening labor demand, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook [13]. Group 5: Political Pressure - Trump's fundamental disagreement with the Fed's economic growth expectations creates ongoing political pressure, as he seeks more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate growth and alleviate debt pressures [17][18].

| Million | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月18日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属回落、盘中波动剧烈。美联储如期降息25个基点，鲍威尔称劳动力市场风险偏向下行，此次降息 可理解为风险管理式降息。点阵图暗示今年将累计降息3次,明年将降息1次。总体看美联储态度偏谨慎，降 息路径相对温和,贵金属可能进入阶段性盘整。 ★FOMC声明及经济预期: 1. 声明概述：降息25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，重启自去年12月以来暂停的降息步伐。理事米兰认为应降息50 个基点。 2. 利率前景：点阵图预计今年将再降息两次。一位官员预计年内将累计降息150个基点，一位官员（非票 委）认为今年不应降息。2025、2026、2027年底联邦基金利 ...