Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 80,616 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[9] - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 93,581 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%[9] Fiscal Performance Metrics - In April 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 12.9%, marking improvements of 4.4 and 2.8 percentage points from March respectively[10] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in the first four months was 33%, above the five-year average of 31.8%[10] - Broad fiscal expenditure completion rate was 28.4%, slightly above the five-year average of 28.2%[10] Debt Financing and Support - The fiscal deficit reached CNY -1.3 trillion in April 2025, higher than the average deficit of CNY -0.6 trillion from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong support from government debt financing[12] - As of May 16, 2025, net financing of government bonds was CNY 2.4 trillion, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than 20.9% in the same period of 2024[12] Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance progress of new special bonds was 31% as of May 16, 2025, indicating potential for acceleration in the future[15] - Land transfer revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 4% in April 2025, with a significant improvement of 21 percentage points from March[15] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue increased by 8.1% year-on-year in April 2025, with a budget completion rate of 5.3%, higher than the previous year's 4.4%[21] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April 2025, reflecting a significant increase of over 16 percentage points from March[35]

Fiscal Performance - In April, the general fiscal expenditure increased by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating a moderate expansion of fiscal policy, although the growth momentum has slowed seasonally compared to previous months[1] - The general public budget expenditure growth rate slightly rebounded to 5.8% in April, while government fund expenditure surged to 44.7% due to a low base effect[1] - The fiscal deficit in April reached 336.7 billion yuan, an increase of 247.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting a continued loose fiscal policy[1] Revenue Insights - April's general public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, improving from a decline of 1.1% in the first quarter[5] - Tax revenue in April turned positive with a growth of 1.8%, compared to a decline of 2.2% in March, while non-tax revenue growth slowed to 2%[5] - Government fund revenue increased by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly recovering from declines in previous months, driven by rising land transfer income in first- and second-tier cities[5] Expenditure Analysis - The growth of general fiscal expenditure in April outpaced the nominal GDP growth of 4.6% in the first quarter, maintaining a loose fiscal stance[6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures showed mixed results, with transportation spending rebounding to 10.6% growth, while spending on agriculture and environmental protection declined[6] - Health and social security expenditures increased, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize growth and support livelihoods[6] Market Outlook - The export demand index showed a year-on-year decline of 1.5% in early May, indicating uncertainty in external demand despite a temporary boost from tariff reductions[2] - The issuance of local special bonds has improved, with 33.5% of the annual quota issued by mid-May, faster than last year's 26.8%[2] - Risks remain from potential escalations in US-China trade tensions and weaker-than-expected domestic demand recovery[3]

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous quarter and higher than the same period last year [1] - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in April 2025 was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1] - Other economic indicators such as CPI, PPI, and social financing scale also showed corresponding changes [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas of the real economy [2] - China's latest LPR has been lowered, and major banks have cut deposit and mortgage rates [2] - China's gold and platinum imports reached new highs in April [2] - The EU is considering zero quotas on Russian natural gas imports [2] Metals - The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF increased by 0.57 tons [3] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Two coke ovens of Tangshan Guoyi Special Steel Co., Ltd. were shut down [4] Energy and Chemicals - The EU may propose to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil [5] - Macquarie Group expects OPEC+ to increase production in July [6] - Turkey discovered a new natural gas field [6] - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reached agreements with US energy companies [6] - Kazakhstan's oil production increased in May [7] Agricultural Products - China's expected summer grain purchase volume in 2025 is about 200 billion jin [8] - Henan Province will implement policies to support grain production [8] - Gansu Province launched a drought emergency response [9] - South Korean flour mills bought US wheat [10] - Japan will not sacrifice its agriculture in trade agreements [10] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 177 billion yuan [11] - The Ministry of Finance issued treasury cash deposits with lower interest rates [11] Key News - China's LPR and bank deposit rates were lowered [12] - The central bank will support the real economy with a moderately loose monetary policy [12] - Fiscal revenue showed positive growth in April, and expenditure progress was fast [13] - Unemployment rates for different age groups were released [13] - A press conference on science and technology finance policies will be held [13] - The government will continue to support infrastructure and urban renewal projects [14][15] - The financial regulator will study a loan management method for urban renewal projects [14] - The scale of wealth management products exceeded 31 trillion yuan in May [16] - Views on the impact of interest rate cuts on bank net interest margins are divided [17] - Large - denomination certificates of deposit are losing popularity [17] - Insurance companies have raised over 74 billion yuan this year [17] - Japan's central bank's reduction in bond purchases affected the bond market [18] - There were various bond - related events and credit rating adjustments [18][19] Bond Market Summary - Treasury futures mostly declined slightly, and bond yields generally rose [20] - Exchange - traded bonds showed mixed performance [20] - Convertible bond indexes rose, and money market rates mostly declined [21] - Domestic and foreign bond yields showed different trends [23] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index declined [24] Research Report Highlights - CICC believes short - end yields may be range - bound, while medium - and long - end yields may decline [25] - Guosheng believes the 4 - month economic data is strong, and mid - term bond rates have room to fall [25] Today's Reminders - Many bonds will be listed, issued, have payments, and pay principal and interest on May 21 [27] 4. Stock Market News - A - shares rose on Tuesday, with small - cap stocks active and the North Exchange 50 and micro - cap indexes hitting new highs [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indexes rose, with biotech stocks performing strongly [29] - Shengsheng Guojian and Shengsheng Pharmaceutical signed a large - scale cooperation agreement with Pfizer [29][30] - Huaxi Bio responded to the "naming brokerage" incident [30] - Xinhua Insurance will participate in the establishment of Honghu Fund Phase III [30] - Bilibili's Q1 revenue increased, and it achieved profitability [30] - CATL's H - share issuance increased after the over - allotment option was exercised [31]

标普：若罗马尼亚财政赤字超出预期，可能会下调其信用评级。罗马尼亚财政政策面临的挑战仍然"巨 大"。 ...

新华社北京5月20日电财政部20日发布了全国财政收支运行的最新情况。数据显示，前4个月全国财政收 入降幅继续收窄，中央收入、税收收入4月份实现正增长；财政支出保持强度，支出进度加快，彰显更 加积极的财政政策靠前发力。 从主要支出科目来看，今年前4个月，社会保障和就业支出16852亿元，同比增长8.5%；教育支出14481 亿元，同比增长7.4%；科学技术支出2953亿元，同比增长3.9%；文化旅游体育与传媒支出1110亿元， 同比增长3.2%；卫生健康支出7462亿元，同比增长3.9%；节能环保支出1687亿元，同比增长6.2%。 "今年以来，财政支出进度明显加快，社保、就业、教育、科技等重点领域支出保障有力，彰显财政政 策靠前发力、更加给力。"何代欣说。 此外，数据显示，今年前4个月，全国政府性基金预算支出26136亿元，同比增长17.7%。 "今年以来，地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债加快发行使用，推动了政府性基金预算支出增长。这 些'真金白银'不仅支持相关项目及早落地，也为地方落实更加积极的财政政策提供支撑。"何代欣说。 从主要税收收入来看，今年前4个月，国内增值税26254亿元，同比增长1.8%；国内 ...

新华财经北京5月20日电日本债券市场向全球经济鸣枪示警，自40年期日债收益率周一飙升至3.445%的20年最高水平后，超长期日债收 益率周二（20日）再次创下逾20年来新高。这种急剧攀升似乎远未结束，从货币和财政政策到投资都有广泛的影响。 在此之前，穆迪上周五下调了美国信用评级，将其从Aaa下调至Aa1，引发了一波不稳定，原因是美国财政赤字上升，以及该机构所称 的"缺乏有效的政策行动"。 数据显示，3月份时，10年期日债收益率曾一度攀升至1.575%，为2008年10月以来的最高水平，创下16年新高。摩根大通此前已将今年 底的10年期日债收益率预期从1.55%调整至1.70%。 上周五穆迪的降级立竿见影，此举重新点燃了"抛售美国"的交易，美债收益率周一盘前全线大幅上行。亚太市场方面，10年期日债收益 率周一也攀升至1.49%，而长期债券收益率大幅上升也使得日债收益率曲线趋陡（下图）。周二，长期日债继续被抛售，10年日债收益 率涨3.9BPs至1.52%，20年日债收益率飙升14.5BPs至2.554%，30年日债收益率跳涨15.3BPs至3.128%。 瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori说："日债收益率 ...

穆迪美国信用降级敲响警钟，美国面临要么减税缩水，要么加重关税的两难局面。 据追风交易台消息，美国银行在最新的报告中表示，市场对美债的担忧已持续一段时间，穆迪的此次降 级的时机也并非巧合，意在提醒美国政府关税收入将无法完全抵消拟减税成本。 尽管如此，但美银表示，美国或可能执意而行： 从我们的观点看，更可能的情况是我们仍将获得一个扩张性的税收方案，长期美债收益率应 该会继续反映对财政前景的担忧。 风险在于：当华盛顿认真对待美国财政问题时，关税可能是唯一能有效减少赤字的手段，而 另一轮大规模关税上调可能比不那么扩张的财政方案对经济造成更大伤害。 但除非出现突然变动，否则风险在于：当华盛顿认真对待美国财政问题时，关税可能是唯一 能有效减少赤字的手段。另一轮大规模关税上调可能比不那么扩张的财政方案对经济造成更 大伤害。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 近期，许多客户询问债券市场是否即将到达投资者对债务可持续性担忧爆发的临界点。穆迪 在周五晚间将美国评级从 ...

经济增长与通胀之间复杂且充满挑战的权衡关系，同样是高盛上调预测的重要依据。当前美国经济展现出一定韧性，制造业 PMI 数据虽在荣枯线附近波 动，但服务业持续扩张，就业市场依旧保持相对稳定，失业率维持在低位。然而，通胀问题并未得到彻底解决，尽管 CPI 同比增速有所回落，但核心通胀 仍处于高位，住房、医疗等刚性支出价格持续攀升。在这种情况下，美联储若过早降息，可能会引发通胀反弹;若维持现有利率水平或加息，则可能抑制经 济增长。这种两难困境使得市场对未来货币政策的不确定性增加，投资者对美债收益率的预期也随之提高。 从财政政策层面来看，更广泛的财政趋势也为美债收益率上调提供了支撑。美国政府近年来持续扩大财政支出，用于基础设施建设、社会福利等领域，财政 赤字不断扩大。为弥补财政缺口，美国财政部不得不大量发行国债，市场上美债的供给量大幅增加。根据美国财政部公布的数据，未来几年国债发行量预计 将持续上升。在需求端没有同步大幅增长的情况下，供大于求的局面使得美债价格承压，收益率自然上升。 基于上述多重因素，高盛对美债收益率预测做出了具体调整。在短期债券方面，将 2025 年底两年期美债收益率的预测值从原先的 3.30% 上 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-05-20 近期诸多联储官员发表讲话 黄金仍维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，在经济数据方面，美国4月谘商会领先指标月率录得-1%，为2023年3月以来最大降幅。而在联储官员讲话 方面，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克重申倾向于今年只降息一次。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称最近的经济数据非常好， 经济的关键词是不确定性。美联储副主席杰斐逊认为，将穆迪调降美国评级作为制定政策的一般数据处理。达拉 斯联储主席洛根表示美联储应考虑加强机制，以在市场出现压力时更有效地防止货币市场利率飙升。总之目前对 于未来美联储的利率变动路径仍存争议。但上周鲍威尔所提出的美联储货币政策的新框架或将使得未来货币政策 的影响力度逐步小于财政政策。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-19，沪金主力合约开于 743.70元/克，收于 755.86元/克，较前一交易日收盘 0.54%。当日成交量为 354299手，持仓量为 209904手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 757.00 元/克，收于 758.02 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.97%。 2025-05-19，沪银主力合约开于 8020元/千克，收于 8133元/千 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The crude steel production in April 2025 remained flat year-on-year at 86.02 million tons, with a daily average production of 2.867 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [2][7]. - The steel industry's profitability has improved, with the profit ratio of steel mills rising to 59.3% as of May 16, 2025, driven by falling raw material prices [2]. - The net financing of local government bonds reached 528.1 billion yuan in April 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending, which is expected to support demand in the steel sector [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of steel in April 2025 was 76.08 million tons, slightly down by 1.7% year-on-year, influenced by uncertainties from US-China tariff disputes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In April 2025, the production of pig iron was 72.58 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year, while steel production increased by 6.6% to 125.09 million tons [7]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [2]. Export and Import Dynamics - Steel exports in April 2025 reached 9.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, benefiting from price advantages [3][7]. - Iron ore imports rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 103.14 million tons in April 2025, although overall iron ore imports for the first four months decreased by 5.5% [7]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing to support the economy [3]. - The report suggests that with the anticipated improvement in demand and supply-side adjustments, the long-term fundamentals of the steel industry are expected to improve [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, highlighting their potential benefits from the current economic conditions and demand recovery [8][9].