Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: IC Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies as discussed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series III[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[46] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 500 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[46] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[49] Model Name: IF Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[50] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[50] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 300 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[50] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[50] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[54] Model Name: IH Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[55] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[55] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of SSE 50 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[55] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[55] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[58] Model Name: IM Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[59] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[59] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 1000 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[59] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[59] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[60] Model Backtesting Results - **IC Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: -2.65% (monthly continuous), -1.77% (quarterly continuous), -0.74% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Volatility: 3.91% (monthly continuous), 4.81% (quarterly continuous), 4.73% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (monthly continuous), -8.34% (quarterly continuous), -7.97% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Net Value: 0.9264 (monthly continuous), 0.9504 (quarterly continuous), 0.9792 (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 17.55 (minimum discount strategy)[49] - 2025 YTD Return: -2.82% (monthly continuous), -0.36% (quarterly continuous), 0.04% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - **IF Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 0.63% (monthly continuous), 0.92% (quarterly continuous), 1.46% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Volatility: 3.05% (monthly continuous), 3.40% (quarterly continuous), 3.19% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly continuous), -4.03% (quarterly continuous), -4.06% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Net Value: 1.0181 (monthly continuous), 1.0264 (quarterly continuous), 1.0421 (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 15.10 (minimum discount strategy)[54] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.53% (monthly continuous), 0.65% (quarterly continuous), 0.85% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - **IH Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 1.17% (monthly continuous), 2.11% (quarterly continuous), 1.83% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Volatility: 3.17% (monthly continuous), 3.59% (quarterly continuous), 3.18% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly continuous), -3.75% (quarterly continuous), -3.91% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Net Value: 1.0337 (monthly continuous), 1.0613 (quarterly continuous), 1.0529 (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 16.15 (minimum discount strategy)[58] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.29% (monthly continuous), 1.19% (quarterly continuous), 1.17% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - **IM Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: -5.86% (monthly continuous), -4.16% (quarterly continuous), -3.46% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Volatility: 4.75% (monthly continuous), 5.80% (quarterly continuous), 5.61% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly continuous), -12.63% (quarterly continuous), -11.11% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Net Value: 0.8528 (monthly continuous), 0.8839 (quarterly continuous), 0.9006 (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 16.02 (minimum discount strategy)[60] - 2025 YTD Return: -7.89% (monthly continuous), -2.89% (quarterly continuous), -1.81% (minimum discount strategy)[60] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset, with a term structure to reflect expectations over different periods[63] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Algorithm Basis**: Based on the methodology discussed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series IV[63] - **Current Values**: As of June 6, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 17.19, 16.45, 22.33, and 22.89, respectively[63] Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility (IV) of options with different strike prices, indicating market expectations of extreme events[68] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Algorithm Basis**: Captures the skewness in IV to reflect market expectations of future returns distribution[68] - **Current Values**: As of June 6, 2025, the SKEW values for SSE

Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" by Guangda Futures, dated June 6, 2025 [1] 1. Contract Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts are 646.5, 701.0, and 665.0 respectively, with changes of -1.5, -3.5, and -1.0 compared to the previous day [3] - The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are -54.5, 36.0, and 18.5 respectively, with changes of 2.0, -2.5, and 0.5 compared to the previous day [3] 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, BRBF, Newman fines, etc., the report provides today's price, previous day's price, change, delivery cost, today's basis, previous day's basis, and basis change [6] 2.2 Basis Charts - The report presents basis charts for different types of iron ore including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores [8][9][10] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - The report shows the spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc., along with their changes compared to the previous day [13] 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - The report includes charts for block - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [14][17][18] 4. Exchange Rule Adjustments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has made adjustments to the deliverable brands and brand premiums of iron ore futures, including adding new deliverable varieties and adjusting the brand premiums of existing varieties [11] - The adjusted rules apply to contracts from I2312 onwards, and the exchange will handle the registration of standard warehouse receipts according to the new rules starting from the first trading day after the last delivery day of the I2311 contract [12] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Guangda Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications [25]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With the overall supply increasing and macro - instability, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it's inclined to go long at low prices [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. June maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are de - stocking. The basis is +100, non - standard price difference is neutral, and import profit is around -500. Exports are good. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under medium to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH devices are frequently shut down for maintenance [5]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [9]. 3) Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2245 to 2317, while the price of South China spot decreased from 2278 to 2300. The import profit remained at 261 on June 5, and the daily change was 0. The main contract basis was 42, with a daily change of -3, and the MTO profit on the futures market was -966, with a daily change of -4 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The price of North China LL remained at 7050, and the price of East China LD increased by 25. The import profit remained at -281, and the main futures price decreased by 15. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6350 to 6350, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 745. The East China PP price decreased from 7020 to 7020, and the main futures price decreased by 37. The basis decreased by 20, and the two - oil inventory remained at 73 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 on June 5. The East China calcium carbide - based PVC price decreased from 4720 to 4710. The basis (high - end delivery product) decreased from -70 to -80 [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread declined slightly, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread oscillated at a high level, and the basis strengthened again. The low - sulfur crack spread oscillated, the near - end monthly spread oscillated, and the basis weakened. [3] - This week, on - shore inventories in Singapore continued to accumulate, ARA ports had a slight inventory build - up, US residual oil had inventory drawdown, and Fujairah had significant inventory drawdown. [3] - Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized. After the supply recovery, there is room for the crack spread and the inter - month spread to repair downward. [4] - The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the demand for fuel oil refinery feedstock has declined significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel was weaker year - on - year. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. [4] - Recently, the net import of Saudi residual oil has rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. The high - sulfur near - end remains strong, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the high - sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium and long term. [4] 3. Key Points by Category Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 5.78, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 7.50, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - 0.08, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by 9.50, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - 2.00, LGO - Brent M1 changed by 0.76, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSF M1 changed by 1.72. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil - **Swap Prices**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 0.42, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by 0.17, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by - 4.31, Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by - 0.86, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.79, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 2.05. [1] - **Spot Prices**: From May 29 to June 5, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by 1.82, FOB VLSFO changed by - 4.17, the 380 basis changed by 0.90, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by 0.9, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by 3.3. [2] Domestic FU - From May 29 to June 5, 2025, FU 01 changed by 2, FU 05 changed by 5, FU 09 changed by 12, FU 01 - 05 changed by - 3, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 7, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 10. [2] Domestic LU - From May 29 to June 5, 2025, LU 01 changed by - 25, LU 05 changed by - 30, LU 09 changed by - 21, LU 01 - 05 changed by 5, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 9, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 4. [3]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross-variety ratios on June 6, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, to help investors understand the market situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures-Spot Spreads**: The latest IF futures-spot spread is -25.56, with a change of 0.79 from the previous day, and historical 1-year and full - historical quantiles of 23.70% and 16.60% respectively. Similar data is provided for IH, IC, and IM [1] - **Inter-period Spreads**: Multiple inter-period spreads such as next month - current month, quarterly month - current month, and far month - current month are presented for different futures varieties, along with their changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross-variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, and others are given, with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and listed - since quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis on June 5, 2025, including TS, TF, T, and TL, to assist investors in analyzing the market [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis**: The latest TS basis is -0.0808, with an IRR of 1.8342, a change of -0.0022 from the previous day, and a listed - since quantile of 39.10%. Similar data is provided for TF, T, and TL [3] - **Inter-period Spreads**: Inter-period spreads like current quarter - next quarter for different treasury bond futures varieties are shown, along with their changes and quantiles [3] - **Cross-variety Spreads**: Cross-variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented with their latest values, changes, and listed - since quantiles [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Futures-Spot Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report offers the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on June 4, 2025, to help investors assess the precious metals market [7] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing price of the AU2508 contract is 783.72 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.30 and a growth rate of 0.17%. Similar data is provided for the AG2508 contract and foreign - market futures [7] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D are given, along with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Basis**: Basis values such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract are presented, along with their changes and historical 1 - year quantiles [7] - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver are provided, with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Data on 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are given, along with their changes and growth rates [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory data of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, as well as holding data of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are presented, along with their changes and growth rates [7] Group 4: Container Shipping Index Futures and Spot Daily Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest prices, changes, and growth rates of container shipping index futures, spot prices, and related fundamental data, helping investors understand the container shipping market [11] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC are given, along with their changes and growth rates [12] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes like SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US - West route), as well as Shanghai Export Container Freight Indexes such as SCFI composite index, are presented, along with their changes and growth rates [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and growth rates [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, overseas economic indicators such as euro - zone manufacturing PMI, and OECD comprehensive leading indicators are given, along with their changes and growth rates [11] Group 5: Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report lists upcoming overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events, providing information for investors to follow the market [14] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes macro - data such as euro - zone GDP, employment, retail sales, and US employment data, as well as agricultural product reports and CFTC position reports [14] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Covers data on black and non - ferrous metals (e.g., silicon iron production, inventory), energy and chemical products (e.g., PX and polyester product data), and special commodities (e.g., glass production - sales ratio) [14]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单开始增加；上期所仓单也逐渐增加；沪锌ZN2507： 震荡盘整。 6月5日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report Polyester Industry - PX: Recent downstream demand and new device commissioning limit short - term downside. Strategies include focusing on 6500 support, 9 - 1 reverse spread, and narrowing PX - SC spread [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but short - term support is strong due to raw materials. Strategies are to focus on 4600 support and 9 - 1 reverse spread [20]. - MEG: June supply remains low, with de - stocking expected. Strategies are to focus on 4200 support for EG09 and 9 - 1 positive spread [20]. - Short - fiber: Price and basis are boosted, but processing fee repair is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA for PF and expanding processing fee at low levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: June supply - demand may improve, processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA for PR and expanding processing fee at the lower end of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [20]. Methanol Industry - Market sentiment recovers, but the driving force is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but the port's July inventory build - up expectation remains. The unilateral range is 2150 - 2350 [23]. PE and PP Industry - Plastic: Early June maintenance increases, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decline. PP: June maintenance returns, increasing supply pressure. Strategies are to go short on PP at high prices and expect LP spread to expand [31]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebound and then fall significantly. Short - term, the market is range - bound. Long - term, a band - trading approach is recommended. WTI range is [59, 69], Brent is [61, 71], and SC is [440, 500]. Options can use a straddle structure [36]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Supply - side contradiction is limited, demand from alumina supports prices. Short - term, spot is strong, and consider expanding the near - month to 09 spread [40]. - PVC: Long - term, supply - demand is weak. Short - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is sluggish. Maintain a short - selling strategy with a range of 4500 - 5000 [40]. Urea Industry - The market has priced in strong supply and weak demand. Future supply contraction, cost support, agricultural demand time - difference, and potential export increase may form a multi - factor resonance [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude (August) on June 4 was 64.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.77 dollars from the previous day. CFR China PX was 852 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [20]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 72.0%, up 2.6% from the previous period. PTA开工率 was 75.7%, down 1.4% [20]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price on June 4 was 2330 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The port - to - inland price difference increased [24]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.049%, up 4.38%. Methanol port inventory was 58.1 million tons, up 11.14% [24]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 12%, down 62.5%. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 84.52%, up 1.0% [24]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price on June 4 was 7018 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. The basis of some products decreased [27]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 was 51.8 million tons, up 7.41%. PP贸易商库存 was 13.6 million tons, down 11.05% [29][30]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 was 76.8%, down 1.51%. PP装置开工率 was 75.4%, down 1.8% [29][30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent on June 5 was 64.77 dollars/barrel, down 0.09 dollars. The crack spread of some refined oils changed slightly [36]. - **EIA Data**: As of May 30, US crude production was 1340.8 million barrels/day, up 0.7 million barrels/day. Commercial crude inventory decreased by 430.4 million barrels [44]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The export profit of caustic soda decreased [40]. - **开工率**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.2%, up 0.4%. PVC总开工率 was 74.6%, up 1.5% [40]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 20.8 million tons, up 1.8%. PVC总社会库存 was 36.3 million tons, down 1.5% [40]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: 01 contract closing price on June 4 was 1706 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between some contracts changed [51][52]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea internal inventory was 103.54 million tons, up 5.48%. Port inventory was 20.50 million tons, unchanged [57]. - **开工率**: Urea production factory开工率 was 90.16%, up 0.63% [57].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals futures, container shipping index futures, and provide relevant market data, such as price changes, spreads, ratios, and inventory information. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **IF, IH, IC, IM期现价差**: The current - spot price spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM are -26.34, -17.22, -50.21, and -69.17 respectively, with changes of 0.87, 1.47, 6.23, and 2.86 compared to the previous day [1]. - **跨期价差**: Different contracts' inter - period spreads show various changes, such as the IF's "次月 - 当月" spread being -39.20 with a change of -2.00 [1]. - **跨品种比值**: Ratios like "中证500/沪深300" are 1.4834 with a change of 0.0050 [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **基差**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are -0.0786, -0.0235, -0.0580, and 0.5351 respectively, with changes of -0.0045, -0.0060, -0.0811, and 0.1237 compared to the previous day [4]. - **跨期价差**: For example, the "当季 - 下季" spread of TS is -0.1480 with a change of -0.0200 [4]. - **跨品种价差**: The "TS - TF" spread is -3.6390 with a change of -0.0310 [4]. Precious Metals Futures - **期货收盘价**: The domestic AU2508 contract closed at 782.42 yuan/gram, down 0.09% from the previous day, and the AG2508 contract closed at 8463 yuan/kg, up 0.08% [8]. - **外盘期货收盘价**: COMEX gold closed at 3397.40 dollars/ounce, up 0.61%, and COMEX silver closed at 34.66, down 0.06% [8]. - **现货价格**: London gold was at 3371.89 dollars/ounce, up 0.57%, and London silver was at 34.46, down 0.12% [8]. - **基差 and 比价**: The "黄金TD - 沪金主力" basis is -2.74, and the "COMEX金/银" ratio is 98.03, up 0.67% [8]. Container Shipping Index Futures - **结算价指数**: SCFIS (European route) was 1252.82 points, up 0.46%, and SCFIS (US West route) was 1718.11, down 0.10% [12]. - **期货价格及基差**: The EC2508 (主力) contract closed at 2199.1, up 4.71%, and the basis (主力) was -717.5, down 10.88% [12]. - **基本面数据**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3242.11 million TEU, and Shanghai's port punctuality rate decreased by 13.19% [12]. Data and Information - **海外数据/资讯**: It includes economic indicators such as the US initial jobless claims, trade balance, and European Central Bank's interest rates [15]. - **国内数据/资讯**: It covers China's Caixin Services PMI, steel production and inventory data, and energy and chemical industry indicators [15].

Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, but the overseas trade situation remains volatile. The upward stimulus to US copper prices from the increase in US aluminum tariffs lacks long - term emotional support. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the marginal stability of processing fees and the widening of the refined - scrap spread have alleviated supply concerns. With weakening consumer resilience, the resistance to copper price increases has grown [1]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in aluminum prices. Low inventory levels support aluminum prices, but the increase in US aluminum tariffs has pressured demand expectations, and short - term aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. - The demand for lead ingots is weak, while primary lead production is rising. The开工 rate of secondary lead enterprises is declining, and if secondary lead production cuts lead to greater scrap price drops, it may deepen the downside space for lead prices [4]. - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, and the expectation of zinc ore oversupply persists. With increasing zinc ingot production and weak terminal consumption, zinc prices face significant downward risks [6]. - The slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply have led to a sharp rebound in tin prices. However, the supply release trend is inevitable, and with no significant increase in demand, the rebound space for tin prices is limited [7]. - Macro uncertainties are high for nickel. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, they remain bearish overall. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the commodity market sentiment, changes in positions, and supply disruptions [10]. - The alumina market has continuous ore - end disturbances, but the over - capacity situation persists. It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price being the core factor [13]. - The cost of stainless steel has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.11% at $9649/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 77500 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9550 - 9700 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2500 to 141350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 3.2 million tons [1]. - Premium: The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 1000 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.67% at $2487/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2450 - 2510 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: The three - location aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and the two - location aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 8.0 million tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.9 million tons [3]. - Premium: The spot premium in East China decreased to 100 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.59% at 16665 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 19 to $1988.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased to 4.49 million tons, and SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 4.17 million tons [4]. - Premium: The refined - scrap spread was - 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import loss was - 887.96 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 1.21% at 22331 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 49.5 to $2722.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 7.74 million tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 million tons [6]. - Premium: The Shanghai basis was 510 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot import loss was - 491.89 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Price: Tin prices rebounded significantly. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE tin this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. - Reason: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated. The short - term expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Refined nickel production is at a historical high, while stainless steel demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high - priced nickel is limited [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index was flat at 60537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed up 1.90% at 61080 yuan. The expected operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 62100 yuan/ton [10]. - Market: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.11% to 3055 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.96 to 10.24 million tons [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price as the core factor [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12720 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The Foshan market's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price was 12950 yuan/ton, and the Wuxi market's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price was 13100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 5299 to 124391 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% to 109.96 million tons [15]. - Market: The cost has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15].

P T A | POY 1 | 石脑油 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | 石脑油裂 | PTA加 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 | 日期 | 原油 | 50D/4 | PX加工差 | 聚酯毛利 | TA基差 产销 | 日本 | 台湾 | 货 | 解价差 | 工差 | 负荷 | 荷 | 效预报 | 8F | 2025/0 | 64.1 | 567 | 842 | 4880 | 6990 | 97.22 | 275.0 | 271 | 156 | 87.3 | 76.4 | 56308 | 175 | 0.50 | 5/27 | 2025/0 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...