Group 1: Federal Reserve and Political Landscape - Trump's stance on the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair has changed, with Waller becoming the candidate with the highest probability of being elected [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish tone, indicating a potential pause in interest rate cuts in January [1] Group 2: Global Market Performance - Commodities performed well during the week of January 12-16, 2026, with oil and gold prices rising due to heightened tensions with Iran, although prices later retreated following Trump's more conciliatory remarks [2] - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.4%, while the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng indices rose by 3.8% and 2.3%, respectively [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.24%, while the domestic 10Y government bond futures price rose by 0.3% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remained moderate in December, with a weak performance in goods and strong performance in services [3] - Retail sales in November showed resilience, and December saw a rebound in existing home sales [3] - Industrial production growth in December maintained a high level, with an increase in capacity utilization [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of overseas propane and crude oil. This week, the PG market was mainly influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuated with crude oil. With Iran being an important LPG supplier to China, the overall price trended strongly. After the US postponed military action against Iran on Friday, the risk premium was reversed [1][2]. - On the fundamentals, although the Iran issue has not had much substantial impact on PG, the overall shipping volume from the Middle East remains low, which will continue for some time and support import costs [2]. - In the domestic demand side, with the maintenance of PDH units this week, the marginal demand has weakened. Meanwhile, the profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive, and subsequent maintenance situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil market fluctuates repeatedly. International crude oil faces the pressure of oversupply in fundamentals and is continuously affected by geopolitical risks. After the US suspended military action against Iran on Friday, the short - term risk premium was reversed [1]. - Overseas propane market is in a volatile state. The shipping volume in the Middle East remains low, and the US is in a state of inventory reduction with increased exports this week, but the absolute inventory level is still high, and the demand is significantly weaker year - on - year. As of Friday, the FEI premium is $37.75, and the CP premium is $29 [1]. - The domestic fundamentals are stable. The arrival volume at ports this week is still low, port inventories continue to decline, and the commercial volume of refineries remains at a relatively low level. On the chemical demand side, PDH maintenance increased this week, and the operating rate declined [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be volatile. The price range of PG03 is between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to narrow in a volatile manner. The spot price is rising due to tight supply, and the futures price may experience valuation repair [15]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: The spread is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high. The near - term is relatively strongly supported, but the long - term outlook is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the near - term [16]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the domestic - foreign price spread and widen the PP/PG price ratio when the price is low [16]. - **Recent Strategy Review** - Hold the 3 - 4 reverse arbitrage position and partially take profits [17]. - Keep the long - PP and short - PG position on hold. Although PDH maintenance has increased recently, the PP price has risen significantly due to cost factors, and the short - term unilateral upward space is limited. The PG price fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to enter the market [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.27% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 12.77% [18]. - **LPG Hedging Strategy Table** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For example, short PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises. For example, sell PG2603C4400 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 100 - 120 yuan [18][19]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy PG futures at a low price on the futures market to lock in procurement costs. For example, buy PG2603 and PG2603P3800 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops. For example, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 20 - 40 yuan [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Negative Information** - PDH maintenance increased this week. Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [19]. - The US suspended military action against Iran, and the situation in Iran has cooled down in the short term [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - January 19: China's Q4 GDP [24]. - January 20: China's LPR [24]. - January 22: US PCE index [24]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, the PG03 contract fluctuated upwards. The net position of the main profitable seats increased slightly; there was no significant change in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list; the net short position of the profitable seats increased slightly; the net long position of foreign investors and retail investors increased slightly [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, PG03 generally fluctuated upwards, oscillating between 4,000 - 4,300 yuan/ton on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, attention should be paid to the support around 4,100 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure, and the 3 - 4 calendar spread was - 242 yuan/ton [26]. - **Overseas Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: FEI M1 closed at $526/ton (+$11), with a premium of $37.75/ton; CP M1 closed at $530/ton (+$6), with a CP premium of $29/ton; MB M1 closed at $321/ton (-$11). Affected by geopolitical factors this week, FEI and CP prices mainly increased, while the US fundamentals were relatively weak, and the price declined [28]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $23/ton; the CP M1 - M2 spread was $17.5/ton; the MB M1 - M2 spread was $1.3/ton. The recent increase in the near - month price has put pressure on the MB near - month contract [37]. - **Regional Price Spread Tracking**: The weak fundamentals in the US have widened the price spread between FEI and MB. The easing of the situation in Iran in the Middle East has led to a greater reversal of the CP risk premium, and the price spread between CP and FEI has narrowed [39]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton (+85 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 280 yuan/ton (-89 yuan/ton). The profit of local refineries continued to shrink [43]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit based on FEI cost was +88 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit based on CP cost was - 218 yuan/ton. The profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive. The MTBE gas separation profit was - 69 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was - 34 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 265 yuan/ton. The profits fluctuated slightly [45]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit was in a volatile state [49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - **US Supply - Demand** - **EIA Weekly Supply - Demand**: This week, production remained stable, demand was still relatively high, exports recovered, and inventories continued to decline, but the overall inventory level was still relatively high [56]. - **KPLER Export Situation**: In 2025, the US exported a total of 68,283 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. Among them, exports to China were 10,187 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. Weekly exports have recovered this week [61]. - **Middle East Supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported a total of 48,463 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. Among them, exports to India were 21,171 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.29%; exports to China were 17,905 kt, a year - on - year increase of 25.21%. Weekly shipping volume in the Middle East has been low in recent weeks but has slightly improved [65]. - **India Supply - Demand**: From January to December, India's total LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23,229 kt, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. There is still expected to be an increase in 2026, but the growth rate is expected to be limited [70]. - **South Korea Supply - Demand**: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious, as most of it is used in the chemical industry. In 2025, South Korea imported a total of 8,434 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. Recently, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [81]. - **Japan Supply - Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. It is expected that imports will increase as the weather gets cooler. After restocking in August, imports decreased in September, and overall, imports in August and September were neutral. Imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is around 1,000 kt. From January to December 2025, Japan imported a total of 10,105 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.58% [84]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance** - **Supply**: With high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external sales volume is not high. According to shipping data, the import volume is not high [89]. - **Demand**: Based on profit and seasonal performance, chemical demand has decreased, while combustion demand has increased. Overall, the chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [89]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port end [90]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 77.24% (+0.26%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 53.91% (-0.66%), and the utilization rate excluding large refineries is 49.77% (-0.74%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.87 tons (+0.06 tons), and the arrival volume is 53.9 tons (+1.1 tons). In terms of inventory, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is 23.15% (-0.66%), and the port inventory is 202.78 tons (-10.42 tons) [93]. - **Domestic Demand** - **PDH Demand**: Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [104]. - **MTBE Demand**: This week, Shandong Chengtai and Yuhuang Shengrong continued their maintenance, and Dongfang Hongye resumed production. The domestic - foreign price spread has widened [107]. - **Alkylated Oil Demand**: There were no changes in the units this week [114]. - **Combustion Demand**: No specific information provided other than related to the seasonal charts [116].

Geopolitical Risks - The situation in Iran remains tense, with Trump delaying military action due to insufficient preparation by the U.S. and Israel, leading to a 1.9% increase in Brent oil prices as of January 17[5] - The U.S. aims to avoid a prolonged war in the Middle East, focusing on pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear and missile programs, while Iran's survival of its regime remains a priority[5] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East is expected to remain high throughout the year, influenced by Israel's upcoming elections and the fragile peace agreements in Gaza[5] Greenland and U.S. Tariffs - Trump continues to exert pressure on Europe regarding Greenland, with potential tariffs on goods exported to the U.S. from Denmark and other countries increasing from 10% to 25% by June 2026[17] - The U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which may provide the administration with more leeway in negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[6] - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, reflecting a focus on strategic security industries[6] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.1%, indicating mixed performance in the Chinese stock market[7] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.9% this week, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns[12] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.2%, while the euro depreciated by 0.4% against the Chinese yuan, indicating fluctuations in currency markets[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical shocks are frequent, testing the low volatility of cross - asset classes. Geopolitics may be the key short - term market driver, and there is a risk of rising cross - asset volatility. Attention should be paid to non - eurozone safe - haven assets [11][12]. - The IEEPA ruling is still pending. If the US Supreme Court rules it unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund, causing short - term tariff policy chaos, and the White House may seek an alternative legal framework [14][17]. - Changes in the expected FED chairperson have led the 10 - year US Treasury yield to break through the key level of 4.20%, with the pressure level raised to 4.20 - 4.3% [18][20]. - US fundamental data are relatively comfortable and in line with expectations. Retail sales in November were better than expected, and the CPI data in December were in line with expectations, with core CPI lower than expected [23][24]. - In the FICC precious metals market, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, while silver is at risk of volatility. It is recommended to increase gold allocation and consider taking profit on silver long positions [25][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income**: The yields of various - term US Treasuries and major developed country government bonds have changed. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.22% on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 5.76bp [43][44]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spreads**: Track the changes in the US Treasury yield curve over 1, 3, and 6 months, as well as the long - short spreads of US Treasury yields [51]. - **Relative Strength of Credit Bonds of Different Ratings and Eurozone Bond Spreads**: Analyze the relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds and the spreads of Eurozone government bonds [60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators**: Include the issuance of US short - term Treasury bills and medium - long - term Treasuries, as well as the bid/offer ratios of 2, 10, and 30 - year US Treasuries [69][73]. Exchange Rate Market - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.3930 on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 0.26%. The euro, yen, and other currencies also had corresponding changes [78][80]. - **Yield Spreads between Major Country Government Bonds and US Treasuries**: Analyze the 10 - year yield spreads between US Treasuries and G7 countries, as well as the 2 - year yield spreads between the US and Germany [81]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework**: The inter - bank 7 - day reverse repurchase serves as the "policy rate", and the SLF and excess reserve ratio form the "interest rate corridor" [90]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, import and export year - on - year data, and high - frequency indicators such as the yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasuries [95][103]. Commodities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Commodities**: Brent crude oil had a weekly increase of 3.45%, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% [121][123]. - **Ratios of Major Commodities and Relative Strength of Industrial Chains**: Analyze the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and the relative strength of the downstream/upstream of the energy and black metal industrial chains [125][131]. - **Mapping of Commodity Prices in the Equity and Bond Markets**: Examine the relative strength of commodities compared to global equity and bond indices and the rolling correlation between upstream Bloomberg commodities and downstream equity cyclical sectors [134][137]. - **High - Frequency Data of Macro Commodities**: Include OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventory changes [141][144]. Overseas Equities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Global Major Indices and US Stock Sectors**: The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.38%, and the Nikkei 225 index increased by 5.51%. Among the S&P industry indices, the real estate index increased by 3.89%, while the financial index decreased by 2.33% [149][153]. - **Week - to - Week Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking of US Stock Styles**: The US large - cap growth style decreased by 1.52%, and the US small - cap value style increased by 1.34%. The PE ratios and EPS growth rates of major indices are also provided [156][160]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices**: Track the quarterly EPS YoY trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indices [166]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators**: Include the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio [173]. - **Tracking Factors**: Track the YTW total return performance of US stock market factors [183]. Cryptocurrencies - Track BTC, ETH, and related derivative assets, including the performance of Bitcoin futures main contracts, non - commercial net positions, and the performance of cryptocurrency - related stocks [186][190]. Post - YCC Era of the BOJ - Track high - frequency data of the yen carry - trade system, such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, the USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging cost, and the yen 3M volatility [194][196]. 2. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - Include the Fed's nominal and real real - time GDP models, US GDP and its sectoral breakdowns, and economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China [204][208]. Financial Conditions - Analyze the Fed's balance sheet and its weekly changes, the balance sheets of G4 central banks as a percentage of GDP, and the US and Eurozone financial conditions indices [212][215]. Fiscal Policy - Examine the US federal government's fiscal expenditure and revenue breakdowns, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP [220][225]. Employment Market - Track the US employment market on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, household surveys, ADP data, and job vacancy numbers [229][230]. Inflation Indicators - Analyze the breakdown of US inflation YoY data, the trends of headline and core inflation, and inflation expectations [237][242]. Consumption Demand - Track US consumption data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and personal income and savings [245][252]. Cycle Positioning - Track industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cyclical indicators, such as the LEI leading indicator YoY, ISM PMI, and US manufacturing surveys [267][272]. Credit Cycle - Track US credit surveys, valuations, and high - frequency data in the credit market, such as the SLOOS corporate credit survey and S&P index valuations [280][282]. Transportation and Logistics - Track logistics data between China, Asia, Europe, and the US, including shipping frequencies, port freight data, and aviation passenger numbers [284][297]. Real Estate Market - Analyze the US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate, including real estate indices, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate loan delinquency rates [302][308]. Eurozone - Provide a macro overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength analysis of the Eurozone, including deficit rates of peripheral countries, inflation trends, and retail sales data [311][331].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in oil prices. WTI crude futures closed up by 1.02% and Brent oil futures by 1.87% during the week of January 9 to January 16, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the U.S., are significant factors affecting oil prices. Iran's oil inventory has reached record levels, equivalent to about 50 days of production, due to Western sanctions [6]. - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain high prosperity due to supply quota constraints and favorable demand driven by policy support. The production quota for HFCs in 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report highlights the increased uncertainty in the Middle East, which is likely to impact oil prices in the short term. The geopolitical situation, including U.S. sanctions and military movements, is a critical factor [6][7]. - The report notes that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile international oil prices [7]. Fluorochemical - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a favorable environment due to supply constraints and policy-driven demand. The production quotas for HFCs have been adjusted, with significant increases in specific categories [6][7]. - The report indicates that the demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, supported by national subsidy policies, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026 [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is on an upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report suggests that there is potential for further price increases in this sector [7].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.41% to $13,148.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% to ¥100,800 per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 21,280 tons year-on-year [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 75.90%, with expectations of a slight decrease next week [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.71% to $3,171.5 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum fell by 1.66% to ¥23,900 per ton [2] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre-holiday inventory demand [2] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina is 11,032 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 8,916 million tons/year [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 2.26% to $4,620.5 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 10.24 tons to 1,074.8 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market, with concerns over U.S. military actions against Iran [3] - The 10-year TIPS decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.88% [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 8.01%, with exports of rare earth permanent magnets reaching a historical high [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand [4] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [4] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate price rose by 6.33%, with supply remaining tight due to pre-holiday clearances [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Companies to focus on include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 7.55%, with inventory levels still acceptable despite recent accumulation [4] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4] - Companies to consider include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [4] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 20.1% to ¥158,300 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 21.2% to ¥153,700 per ton [4] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,600 tons, with a slight increase week-on-week [4] - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to low inventory and high demand [4] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 1.3% to ¥454,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 0.6% to $25.38 per pound [5] - The market is experiencing cautious purchasing behavior due to high cost pressures [5] - The price of cobalt salts continues to rise, providing support for electric cobalt prices [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, have driven significant fluctuations in oil prices, providing a favorable backdrop for oil price recovery [1] - OPEC+ is expected to cautiously increase production in 2026, which may help alleviate the oversupply situation in the oil market [2] - Global oil demand is projected to improve, with the chemical raw material demand expected to dominate the growth in 2026 [3] - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for major Chinese oil companies and the oil service sector, emphasizing their resilience during price fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand - OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, with a cautious production increase expected to improve the supply-demand balance [2] - The IEA has raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 860,000 barrels per day, attributing this to improved macroeconomic conditions [3] Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed at $64.20 and $59.22 per barrel, reflecting increases of 1.9% and 0.7% respectively from the previous week [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major Chinese oil companies, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as their associated oil service engineering firms [4]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 地缘风险变数再起，美元维持强势 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数回 升，美债收益率升至 4.22%。美元指数涨 0.26%至 99.4，非美货 币多数贬值，离岸人民币涨 0.12%，欧元跌 0.34%，英镑跌 0.19%，日元跌 0.15%，瑞郎跌 0.22%，韩元、卢比贬值，新西兰 元、兰特、林吉特升值，比索涨近 2%。金价涨 1.9%至 4597 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 158，现货商品指数收跌，布油涨 3.5%至 67.6 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 地缘政治风险扰动仍在，特朗普对伊朗态度边际软化。周末特 朗普表示要对欧洲 8 国在 2 月 1 日加征 10%关税，6 月 1 日后提 升至 25%，直到达成完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛达成协议，引发 欧盟与美国冲突增加，预计会对股市情绪构成压制。美国经济 数据表现尚可，12 月 CPI 同比维持在 2.7%，符合市场预期，但 核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 2.7%，食品 和服务价格上涨是 核心推动因素，住房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market continues to operate at high levels, while international gold prices have experienced significant declines due to forced selling from passive funds and a stronger US dollar [1][3][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - As of January 17, 2026, domestic gold prices range from 992.48 to 1002.50 CNY per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang priced at 1413 CNY per gram [1]. - The price of 999 gold jewelry remains high, while the wholesale market in Shenzhen has seen prices drop to 1158-1218 CNY per gram, creating a price gap of over 200 CNY [5]. - Brand gold jewelry has seen price increases of up to 20% in early January, driven by processing fees and brand premiums, contrasting with the falling wholesale prices [5]. Group 2: International Gold Market - On January 17, 2026, international gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping 1.67% to below 4540 USD per ounce, and New York futures down 1.82% [3]. - The decline began with a forced sell-off of approximately 6.5 billion USD in gold due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing, triggering a "stop-loss" effect [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold futures, leading to further market volatility as leveraged traders were forced to liquidate positions [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The strengthening US dollar, with the index rising 0.28% to 99.18, has reduced the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars, despite lower-than-expected core CPI figures [5]. - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7415 million ounces by the end of December 2025, providing some underlying support to the market [7]. - Geopolitical risks, such as increased tariffs on Iran and military actions in Ukraine, have not been sufficient to counteract the downward pressure on gold prices [7]. Group 4: Market Behavior - The recovery market remains stable, with national average buyback prices for 999 gold at 958-966 CNY per gram, reflecting differing valuations among market participants [7]. - The international gold price is still in an upward channel on a daily level, with 4650 USD as a key resistance level and 4550 USD as a support level [7].

GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：地缘风险或有反复， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 暂时观望 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 观点综述 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2026年1月18日 2 01 本周原油观点：地缘风险或有反复，暂 ...