Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise, but in the medium - term, factors such as global central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide liquidity premiums, safe - haven demand, and reserve diversification demand for precious metals. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3800 - 3850 per ounce. The medium - level bull market for precious metals since March 2024 has not ended, and it is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: From October 28th to the present, London gold has been trading sideways in the range of $3880 - $4050 per ounce. The narrowing trading range indicates an imminent short - term price breakthrough. In the short - term, precious metals need to adjust, while in the medium - term, they are supported by multiple factors. Investors are advised to hold a long - biased view and watch the support at $3800 - $3850 per ounce [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 923.97, up 0.39%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,505, up 0.49%; Gold T + D closed at 917.27, down 0.03%; Silver T + D closed at 11,480, up 0.52% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since March 2024, the medium - level bull market for precious metals has not ended. It is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in precious metal prices since late October, some of the adjustment risks have been released. Investors should pay attention to the technical and fundamental signals for re - entering long positions [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Cleveland Fed President Harker believes that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further rate cuts, and she is concerned that current monetary policy may not be effective in dealing with inflation. - US President Trump admitted that US consumers are paying higher prices due to his tariff policies, although he still claims that the policy benefits Americans overall. - The Bank of England kept its interest rate at 4.0%, but the close vote and signs that Governor Bailey may soon support rate cuts increase the possibility of a rate cut in December after the government's budget announcement. - After the US imposed new sanctions on major Russian oil producers, Indian and Chinese refiners reduced their purchases, leading to the largest discount of Russian oil prices in Asia compared to Brent crude in a year [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall rating of "Weakly Bearish" for the crude oil market [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the crude oil market lies in the game between short - term geopolitical risk support and medium - to long - term supply - demand and macro - level bearish factors. The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market has become fatigued with relevant news, and the support is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and the market shows a characteristic of "falling with the trend but not rising", with the macro and fundamental factors jointly suppressing the market [1] - The near - term trading logic is dominated by the decline in geopolitical sentiment, the approaching spring maintenance of refineries, and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. The short - term trend is weakly bearish. The long - term trend is a downward oscillation due to the rigid supply pressure and limited demand growth [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market's reaction to relevant news is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and combined with economic concerns caused by the US government shutdown, the market shows a "falling with the trend but not rising" characteristic [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestion - The market is in a weakly bearish oscillation. The strategy suggests to short the market when Brent rebounds to $66 - 68 per barrel, with a stop - loss at $70. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information**: Two US B - 52 bombers approached the Venezuelan coast, and the US and Venezuela have tense relations recently [8] - **Bearish Information**: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices for Asian markets in December. The production of Kazakhstan's Karachaganak oilfield has increased by about 15% [9][10] 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - On November 10, 2025, at 24:00, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. As of the ninth working day on November 7, this may provide short - term support for crude oil futures prices [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - This week, international crude oil prices oscillated slightly downward, falling below the short - term moving average. The previous week, the settlement price of the WTI main contract decreased by 2.02%, and that of the Brent main contract decreased by 2.21%. The INE crude oil futures position increased by 1,689 lots week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures position decreased by 65,844 lots week - on - week [14][17] 3.3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $4.37 per barrel. The SC - Brent spread was weakening, and the internal - market crude oil was relatively weaker under the background of OPEC+ production increase [22][23] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC all weakened. The recent spreads have given back most of the risk premiums due to fundamental suppression [25] 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $3.88 per barrel. The spread between SC and Brent has weakened again because the external - market crude oil is more strongly supported by geopolitical risk premiums [30] 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of November 7, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively, while in North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the crack spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [42] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels per day, up 0.7 million barrels per day week - on - week. From November 1 - 7, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 414, unchanged week - on - week [64] 3.5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US refinery crude oil input was 15.256 million barrels per day, up 3.7 million barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 86.0%, down 0.6 percentage points week - on - week. From October 31 - November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese independent refineries was 62.49%, up 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, and that of Chinese major refineries was 78.64%, down 1.86 percentage points week - on - week [66] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 31, US commercial crude oil inventories totaled 421,168 thousand barrels, up 5,202 thousand barrels week - on - week. As of November 5, the Chinese port commercial crude oil inventory index was 106.77, down 1.52% week - on - week [68] 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil exports were 4.367 million barrels per day, up 0.6 million barrels per day week - on - week. The Middle - East seaborne crude oil exports from October 21 - 27 were 16.7283 million barrels per day, up 1.90% week - on - week, while Russian seaborne crude oil exports this week were 3.3723 million barrels per day, down 12.98% week - on - week [70] 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA has continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC has maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The IEA has slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical risks, expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 917.51 yuan/g, with a change of 0.13 yuan compared to the previous day and - 2.56 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 37,088, and the position was 255,562 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 38 yuan/10g, the trading volume was 460,064, and the position was 4,303,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,984.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 183,645, and the position was 311,506. The inventory was 37,847,208.99 troy ounces [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,994.10 dollars/ounce [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 11,217, and the position was 102,295. The inventory was 483,133,331.10 troy ounces [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.70 dollars/ounce [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US Treasury will auction 125 billion dollars in Treasury bonds this week, along with about 40 billion dollars in corporate bonds, posing a severe test to market liquidity. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. The Fed provides liquidity to the inter - bank market through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF). Geopolitical risks in Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela remain unresolved, and many central banks around the world are continuously buying gold, which may support precious metal prices [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000 yuan/g. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 50 - 55 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 yuan/kg [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates again during Chairman Powell's term, which ends in May 2026, marking a significant shift in market expectations [4][6][8] - The prediction from Bank of America is considered one of the most hawkish on Wall Street, contrasting with the market's general anticipation of a rate cut in December [6][8] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, including the October CPI report, creating uncertainty for the Fed and investors [7][10] Group 2 - Recent statements from Fed officials reflect a cautious sentiment, with several expressing concerns about inflation and showing reluctance towards further rate cuts [8][10] - Bank of America has updated its core economic forecasts, projecting that the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.75% to 4.0% until late 2025, with potential cuts beginning only in mid-2026 under a new chair [8][10] - The Fed's latest financial stability report highlights policy uncertainty as a primary risk to the U.S. financial system, with 61% of surveyed market participants identifying it as a major concern [10][11] Group 3 - The U.S. market is facing a liquidity crisis, with key indicators showing significant stress, including a spike in the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) [14][15] - The Treasury's general account balance has surged over the past three months, pulling over $700 billion from the market, which has exacerbated liquidity issues [15]

聚酯：下游工厂前期备货尚未完全消耗同时原料端价格下跌，下游企业对长丝采购意愿偏低。周内长丝 产销数据偏淡，PTA加工费小幅改善至142元/吨。涤纶长丝POY150D平均盈利水平为174.51元/吨，较上 周平均毛利上涨97.29元/吨；涤纶长丝FDY150D平均盈利水平为-65.49元/吨，较上周平均毛利上涨57.29 元/吨；涤纶长丝DTY150D平均盈利水平为110元/吨，较上周平均毛利下降40元/吨。原料端，PX方面， 油价回调，厂家成本压力减轻，PX市场重心相对稳定，本周PXN水平变动幅度不大，目前在230-240美 元/吨附近；短流程方面，MX价格偏低，PX-MX价差稳定在120美元/吨上方，生产利润较为可观。PTA 方面，周内PTA市场价格震荡运行，PX市场也基本稳定，故PTA加工费变动有限，行业仍处于亏损状 态，周内加工费整体维持在200元/吨以下震荡。截至11月6日，PTA行业加工费为142.20元/吨。 国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究：本周油价震荡回落。美国政府持续停摆导致市场宏观风险偏好下 降。同时沙特下调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价表明其保证亚洲市场份额决心。截止11月6日，WTI现 ...

以下为研究报告摘要： 国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究：本周油价震荡回落。美国政府持续停摆导致市场 宏观风险偏好下降。同时沙特下调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价表明其保证亚洲市场份额决 心。截止11月6日，WTI现货收于59.43美元，环比-1.14美元；BRENT现货收于64.03美元， 环比-1.47美元。EIA10月31日当周商业原油库存环比+520.2万桶，前值-685.8万桶。其中库 欣原油环比+30万桶，前值+133.4万桶。汽油库存环比-472.9万桶，前值-594.1万桶。 原油：本周油价震荡回落。美国政府持续停摆导致市场宏观风险偏好下降。同时沙特下 调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价表明其保证亚洲市场份额决心。短期地缘风险下降后，市场 关注点重回供需基本面油价回落。尽管特朗普称尚未决定对委内瑞拉境内地面目标发动袭 击；但我们认为南美地缘风险未来1-2周仍可能上升。截止11月6日，WTI现货收于59.43美 元，环比-1.14美元；BRENT现货收于64.03美元，环比-1.47美元。EIA10月31日当周商业原 油库存环比+520.2万桶，前值-685.8万桶。其中库欣原油环比+30万桶，前值+1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that gold is expected to continue its upward trend next year, with structural and cyclical opportunities likely to resonate together [1] Group 1: Economic and Market Factors - The trend of de-globalization and strategic security demands may continue to support the long-term increase in gold reserves by central banks in emerging markets [1] - Changes expected by 2025 will raise the requirements for physical gold inventory construction in regional markets, which may already be reflected in the tightening liquidity of the gold market observed this year [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - Economic growth pressures in the U.S. may persist into the first half of next year, with the Federal Reserve having restarted interest rate cuts in September and potentially ending balance sheet reduction by year-end [1] - The ongoing liquidity easing cycle is expected to provide support for investment demand in gold ETFs and other assets, although a shift towards recovery trading may require some time [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical risks associated with the ongoing restructuring of order may not completely dissipate, further supporting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, it has strategic allocation advantages due to global central bank gold - buying trends. In the short - term, it will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation before the December Fed meeting and oscillate at the key level of $4000. Trading positions should wait, while long - term allocation can be made on dips after stabilization [4]. - Silver is in a short - term volatile consolidation. Its price trend is highly correlated with gold, and the long - term price center will follow gold's upward movement. Its price elasticity is higher than gold [5]. - The report suggests paying attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and subsequent macro data, as well as whether the Fed will start bond - buying operations for reserve management [5]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 01 Macro Impact Factors - **Fed Interest - Rate Cut**: Powell's hawkish stance made the market re - price the future easing path. Before the December Fed meeting, the market will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation due to data uncertainty caused by the government shutdown and internal Fed differences [7]. - **US Supreme Court's Tariff Legality Ruling**: The case's final decision is pending. In the long - term, the US tariff system will shift to "precision strikes", and the economic drag from tariffs will continue [7]. - **Trade Conflict**: In the short - term, the risk of industrial chain "decoupling" in Sino - US trade has decreased, but structural contradictions remain, and future disputes will focus on technology and security [7]. - **Geopolitical Conflict**: Conflicts in areas like Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela are still ongoing, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - **US Government Shutdown**: It has entered the 40th day, causing impacts on welfare payments, healthcare, and air traffic. The probability of a bipartisan compromise has increased, and attention should be paid to whether an agreement can be reached on November 15 for the government to reopen [8]. - **Physical Gold ETF**: It has seen continuous net inflows for five months, with $82 billion in October. The trading volume has reached a record $170 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [8]. - **Central Bank Gold Buying**: Global central banks' net gold purchases in Q3 2025 were 220 tons, with a 28% quarterly increase and a 10% year - on - year increase. China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months [8]. 02 ETF持仓跟踪 - **Gold and Silver ETF Holdings**: Specific data on the holdings and changes of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF from November 3 - 7, 2025 are provided [30]. - **October Global Physical Gold ETF Inflows**: It had net inflows for five consecutive months, with $82 billion in October. North America and Asia led the inflows, while Europe had outflows. The trading volume reached a record high [35]. 03 Exchange Inventory - There is information about gold and silver exchange inventory, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [40][42]. 04 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - There is information about domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [46][49]. 05 Precious Metals Ratio - There is information about precious metals ratio, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [52][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [7] Core Views - OPEC+ has announced a pause in production increases starting January 2026, aiming to balance oil prices amid declining global demand and rising inventories [2][3] - Oil prices have been under pressure due to concerns over demand, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $63.70 and $59.84 per barrel, respectively, reflecting declines of 1.4% and 1.7% from the previous week [1][11] - The IEA forecasts a modest increase in global oil demand of 700,000 barrels per day in 2026, while supply is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day, leading to a potential oversupply situation [3][16] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly sanctions against Russia, are likely to provide a risk premium that supports oil prices [3][18] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China (PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to enhance their production and cost management strategies, showcasing resilience during price downturns [4][19] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause further increases from January to March 2026, reflecting a strategy to stabilize oil prices amid low demand expectations [2][11] Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The IEA has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 700,000 barrels per day, indicating a slowdown in consumption growth due to macroeconomic conditions and electrification trends [16][14] - The report highlights a significant increase in oil inventories, with a notable rise in floating storage, suggesting a potential oversupply in the market [16][14] Geopolitical Factors - Recent escalations in sanctions against Russia, including the U.S. Treasury's blacklisting of major Russian oil companies, are expected to tighten the oil market and support prices [3][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on the "Big Three" oil companies and their associated oil service firms, as well as leading players in the refining and chemical sectors, anticipating long-term growth despite current market volatility [5][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bank of America predicts the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not lower interest rates again during Chairman Powell's term, which ends in May 2026, contrasting with market expectations for a rate cut in December [1][3][5] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the October CPI report, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve and investors [1][4] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 66.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 33.1% [1] Group 2 - Bank of America believes that the cautious statements made by Powell after the October rate cut indicate that the threshold for a December rate cut has been raised, requiring data to "prove" its necessity [3][4] - The report highlights that the labor market is cooling but not deteriorating sharply, providing a rationale for the Fed to pause rate cuts [4] - Recent comments from various Federal Reserve officials reflect a hawkish sentiment, with concerns about inflation and reluctance to support further rate cuts [4][5] Group 3 - Bank of America has updated its core economic forecast, predicting that the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.75% to 4.0% until late 2025, with potential cuts beginning in mid-2026 under a new chair [5] - The Fed's latest financial stability report warns that policy uncertainty is the primary risk facing the U.S. financial system, with 61% of surveyed market participants identifying it as a major concern [7][8] - The report also notes a significant increase in concerns about geopolitical risks and the rising perception of AI as a financial stability risk [8]