美联储再度维持利率不变 ，陆家嘴金融论坛 预期落空 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 日度报告——综合晨报 报 市场预计 6 月 30 日 USDA 将把美豆种植面积上调 50 万英亩至 8400 万英亩。昨日国内进口巴西豆成本上升，沿海油厂豆粕现 货报价小幅上涨，下游成交意愿高涨。 有色金属（铜） 统计局：中国 5 月铜材产量同比增长 13.4% 美联储继续按兵不动，市场对鹰派声明有所担忧，美元阶段转 强抑制铜价，预计盘面继续高位震荡可能性更大。 能源化工（液化石油气） 美联储再度维持利率不变 点阵图预示年底前将降息两次 美联储最新利率会议维持利率水平不变，但是远期降息预期次 数减少，美元指数震荡走强。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行行长潘功胜在 2025 陆家嘴论坛上宣布八项重磅举措 综 陆家嘴金融论坛并未公布宽货币政策，市场预期落空，但国债 期货跌幅极有限，这说明市场做多情绪已经升温。建议尽快布 局多头仓位。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 USDA 周度出口销售报告前瞻 美国 C3 库存累库 美国 C3 累库速率降低，镇海外放目前尚未冲击民用气市场。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and the spread of SC over Brent is expected to rise [1]. - Precious metals are recommended to be on the sidelines due to the repeated risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - Short positions in copper are recommended to be held [3]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - For cast aluminum alloy, consider taking a long position in AD and a short position in AL when the spread widens [5]. - For alumina, consider short - selling on rebounds if the futures discount continues to repair [6]. - For zinc, short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Short positions in nickel are recommended to be held [9]. - A small number of short positions in far - month tin contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Industrial silicon is expected to mainly oscillate, with the main trend remaining bearish [12]. - Polysilicon is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly downward trend [13]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [14]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate [15]. - The upward space of coke and coking coal prices should not be overly optimistic [16][17]. - The price of manganese silicon is still under pressure [18]. - For ferrosilicon, observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [19]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [20]. - The cracking of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be under pressure [21]. - For asphalt, wait for the layout opportunity after the risk of geopolitical premium of crude oil is removed [22]. - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. - The urea futures market remains strong, but be wary of the tightening of export policies [24]. - For methanol, closely monitor relevant data and be wary of a high - level decline in the market if the conflict eases [25]. - For styrene, the price is mainly guided by oil prices, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [26]. - For polypropylene and polyethylene, the market is mainly driven by geopolitical risks, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement [27]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and caustic soda is under pressure at a high level [28]. - PX and PTA are strong in the short term but have potential risks in the medium term [29]. - Ethylene glycol is bullish in the short term and expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [30]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, the short - fiber supply - demand is improving, while the bottle - chip has potential for processing margin repair but with caution [31]. - Glass is recommended to be operated with caution due to the high - inventory and weak - demand pattern [32]. - For natural rubber and its related products, the strategy is to be bullish [33]. - Soda ash is recommended to adopt a high - level short - selling strategy [34]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - For vegetable oils, a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36]. - For rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - For soybeans No.1, pay attention to weather guidance [38]. - Corn futures are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the weight - reduction rhythm of large farms [40]. - Egg prices are considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - For cotton, the operation strategy is to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43]. - For apples, wait and see and pay attention to bagging data [44]. - For wood, wait and see due to the weak price [45]. - For pulp, wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. - For stock indices, pay attention to the investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the subsequent development of macro - factors [47]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices oscillated. Brent 08 contract fell 1.44%, while SC08 contract rose 2.1%. The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the US may directly intervene. European officials will hold nuclear negotiations with the Iranian foreign minister. Supply risks remain before the US confirms participation. Last week, US DOE crude oil inventories dropped significantly by 1.1473 billion barrels due to increased net exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oil prices rise due to geopolitical conflicts, and oil - related futures follow suit but with smaller increases. The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for shipping and power generation is affected by high cracking valuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and demand is weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil prices rise, and asphalt follows. The increase in asphalt production is limited. The shipments of 54 sample refineries are increasing, and terminal demand is expected to improve. Current inventory is declining, but the BU cracking is under pressure before the geopolitical risk of oil prices is removed [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. Domestic chemical demand is recovering, but there is pressure on margins due to rising import costs. If geopolitical risks ease, supply pressure may lead to a decline. The market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals declined. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the dot - plot shows a split on rate - cut expectations. The Israel - Iran conflict intensifies, and risk - aversion sentiment is repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the change in US copper tariff premium. The Fed maintained interest rates and lowered economic growth expectations. Short positions are recommended to be held [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum oscillated. The low - inventory situation deepens the Back structure, which is beneficial to long positions in the short term. However, downstream开工 is weakening, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [4]. - **Zinc**: The actual delivery of SHFE zinc 06 contract was 8,675 tons, and the 07 contract has a high position. The supply - demand in June is weak. Short - term short positions can partially take profit, and there may be opportunities to cover short positions at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The high inventory of the outer market may open the import window. The market rumor of Tianneng's production cut led to a decline in SHFE lead. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel declined. The upstream price support weakened, and inventory increased. It is in a bearish trend, and short positions are recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin oscillated and closed lower. Pay attention to the import of tin concentrates in May. A small number of short positions in far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is in the peak season, and port inventory is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Coke prices oscillated upward, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. Coking coal prices oscillated narrowly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the upward space of prices is limited [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices oscillated downward, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure. Ferrosilicon prices oscillated, and the supply - demand contradiction is small. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18][19]. - **Steel**: Night - session steel prices rose first and then fell. The off - season demand for rebar is weakening, and the inventory reduction slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, but inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: Iranian methanol plants have large - scale shutdowns and production cuts, and the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases. However, port inventory is low, and the expected rapid inventory build - up is likely to fail. The market is excited, but be wary of a decline if the conflict eases [25]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks lead to large oil - price fluctuations, which guide styrene prices. The supply of styrene increases, and the demand maintains a rigid support [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Geopolitical risks drive the polyolefin market. The demand for polyethylene is in the off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction lacks improvement. Polypropylene is also in the off - season, and the supply pressure increases [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda supply is high, and the price is under pressure at a high level [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA opened high and then fell. The polyester filament sales are weak, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol fluctuated overnight. The supply is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and the industry supply - demand is slightly weakening. There are plans for large - scale plant maintenance, which may support the price [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The Israel - Iran conflict affects oil prices and soybean meal. The US soybean good - rate is slightly lower than expected, and weather is favorable for growth. Pay attention to weather changes and oil market fluctuations [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Vegetable oil prices are rising, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips due to the development of biodiesel [36]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The impact of external factors is not fully digested. The risk of dry weather in North America adds a weather premium. The short - term strategy changes from bullish to neutral [37]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak overnight. The substitution of wheat for corn exists, and inventory is going through destocking. The futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Live Pigs**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and the policy aims to stabilize prices. However, there is still pressure on pig supply in the later stage [40]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price is stable. There is short - term support from demand, but it is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton good - rate decreased, and the planting rate increased. Domestic cotton trading is average, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, ICE sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data is bearish. Domestic sugar imports are low, and inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. Market demand is declining, and the focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price oscillated. The import volume of radiata pine is expected to be low in June, and demand is relatively good in the off - season. Inventory is going through destocking, but the price is weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp futures price rose slightly. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The price is low, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on significant pullbacks [46]. Financials - **Stock Indices**: A - shares oscillated narrowly. The Fed maintained interest rates, and the geopolitical situation is tense. Pay attention to investment opportunities in the science and technology growth sector and the development of macro - factors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury - bond market oscillated, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The consumer goods trade - in policy is ongoing, and the bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [48].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：美联储维持利率不变，全球风险偏好整体降温 明道雨 ...

国家原油期货短线小幅拉升，媒体援引知情人士称，美国官员为未来几天可能打击伊朗做准备，考虑本 周末对伊朗实施打击；美国针对是否打击伊朗的计划仍在不断变化。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, as it assesses the impact of previous tightening policies and awaits more data on inflation [1][2] - Chairman Powell's "hawkish" comments emphasized persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, contrasting with market expectations for potential rate cuts in the second half of the year, leading to a surge in dollar buying [1][2] - The dollar index (DXY) rebounded post-decision but faced resistance around the 99.00 level due to technical factors, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and market digestion of the Fed's overall message [1][2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Market Reactions - President Trump's optimistic remarks about a potential agreement with Iran provided an unexpected market driver, easing geopolitical tensions and impacting risk premiums [2][5] - The strengthening dollar negatively affected other major currency pairs, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD both declining, reflecting pressure on the Eurozone economic outlook and the Bank of England's policy path [2][5] - The Australian dollar's performance is contingent on upcoming labor market data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy expectations [4][5] Group 3: Commodity Markets - The strengthening dollar and changing geopolitical risks exerted pressure on commodity prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices retreating despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East [4][5] - Gold prices fell due to the dollar's strength, the Fed's interest rate decision, and easing geopolitical risks, while silver exhibited volatility due to its dual nature as both a precious and industrial metal [5][6] - Market focus will remain on the Bank of England's rate decision and the Australian employment report, which are critical for assessing economic outlooks and monetary policy directions [5][6]

金十数据6月19日讯，据英国金融时报报道，英国首相斯塔默提醒内阁警惕美国可能对伊朗发动袭击， 而就在24小时前，他还坚称特朗普没有表示他将"卷入这场冲突"。英国官员表示，局势"严重而动荡"， 而首相团队讨论了特朗普是否可能寻求从迪戈加西亚的美英联合空军基地打击伊朗的核设施。到目前为 止，英国一直置身于以伊战争之外，并决心不做任何可能导致英国驻德黑兰大使馆关闭的事情，该大使 馆是西方在中东的一个重要外交据点。据了解会谈情况的官员透露，斯塔默当地时间周三在白厅紧急委 员会的一次会议上讨论了美国袭击伊朗的可能性。与会者包括高级内阁部长、军方首脑、情报部门负责 人和美国大使彼得·曼德尔森。 英国首相斯塔默已要求内阁警惕美国可能袭击伊朗 ...

中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今夜无眠，大事超多！ 【导读】全球等待美联储最新的利率政策决议，特朗普称伊朗错失达成协议的机会，对打击计划含糊其辞 此外，美联储的利率决议预计将于美东时间下午2点（北京时间19日凌晨2点）公布。市场普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变，但投资者将重 点关注美联储主席鲍威尔会后发布会上的言论。 交易员也在关注政策制定者对于未来利率路径的预测——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布成员的"点阵图"利率预期。 交易员押注今年将有不到两次降息，且首次降息已完全被市场定价在10月。数据显示，美国初请失业金人数徘徊在八个月高位附近，这一 情况对市场预期影响不大。 Miller Tabak的马特·马利表示："本周的走势像跷跷板一样反复无常。特别是考虑到一切都取决于今天美联储的表态，以及中东局势的进 展。" 市场普遍预计，美联储将在本次会议上连续第四次维持利率不变，并重申在调整借贷成本前，需要更明确了解各项政府政策的影响。尽管 部分官员可能继续预测今年会有两次降息，但也有经济学家认为"点阵图"可能只显示一次。 美股上涨 6月18日晚间，美股三大指数上涨，投资者密切关注中东局势的最新进展，并等待美联 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite weak retail sales data in the US and cautious consumer spending, the US dollar has strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.64% to 98.8 points, suggesting a shift in market drivers from economic fundamentals to geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations [1][3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions against Iran, have escalated global risk sentiment, leading to a resurgence of the dollar's safe-haven status [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook is a focal point for the market, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, while investors are keenly watching for signals regarding future rate cuts or a prolonged period of high rates to combat persistent core inflation [3][4] - Specific currency movements include the euro declining by 0.68% to 1.1481 USD, influenced by disappointing economic data from the Eurozone and concerns over the European Central Bank's policy space, and the British pound falling by 1.08% to 1.3430 USD amid worries about the UK's economic recovery [3][4] - The Japanese yen has shown a notable decline, with the dollar rising by 0.4% to 145.32 yen, as the Bank of Japan maintained its dovish stance and indicated a slowdown in balance sheet reduction [4] - The Australian dollar has decreased by 0.8% to 0.6474 USD, reflecting heightened risk aversion among global investors, exacerbated by volatility in the commodity markets and weak demand in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to influence the dollar's trajectory, with potential hawkish signals from the Fed likely to support further dollar strength [4]

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月18日16时59分 投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌0.21%，沪银主力收涨2.35%。①核心逻辑，短期以色列和伊朗冲突升级，经济衰退地缘异动 风险仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，中东地缘异动，伊朗敦促特朗普迫使以色列停 战。中美元首通话，磋商进展顺利，达成贸易框架。③货币属性方面，最新美国5月零售销售和制造业产出疲软。美国6月消费者 信心出现六个月来首次好转，但家庭仍对经济发展轨迹感到担忧。美国最新通胀数据仍保持温和。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至 9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币 升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏多金弱银强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥凌晨有美联储决议，预期维持利率不 变，新点阵图或对后期提供指引，建议投资者提前做好风险管理。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Surge - Since June 13, the conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, leading to a significant increase in international oil prices, surpassing $70 per barrel [2] - As of June 17, WTI crude oil closed at $74.84 per barrel, up 4.28%, while Brent crude closed at $76.45 per barrel, up 4.40% [3] - From June 13 to June 17, WTI crude oil increased by nearly $7 per barrel, approximately a 10% rise, and Brent crude oil also saw a similar increase [3] Group 2: Chemical Product Price Increases - The rise in crude oil prices has supported price increases in downstream chemical products, with notable price hikes in propylene, pure benzene, and methanol [5] - On June 13, propylene prices were reported at 6410-6460 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.02% increase, while pure benzene and styrene also saw significant price increases of 4.1% and 3.42%, respectively [5] - Methanol, which is significantly imported from Iran, saw its price rise to 2670-2680 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton or 7.75% [5] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - Energy and chemical companies' stock prices have surged, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Shandong Molong experiencing significant gains, including multiple trading days of price limits [6] - From June 13 to June 18, Tongyuan Petroleum's stock rose by 75.36%, while other companies like Shandong Molong and Jun Oil also saw substantial increases [6] Group 4: Company Performance and Market Dynamics - Tongyuan Petroleum clarified that its core business in oil and gas development is not directly affected by the Iran-Israel conflict, as it primarily provides technical services [7] - Jun Oil's performance has been under pressure due to reduced demand and profit margins, with ongoing losses reported from 2022 to Q1 2025 [8] - Jin Niu Chemical, which focuses on methanol production, indicated that its operations remain stable, with no significant changes in market demand or supply [10]