Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the use of fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] - The meeting highlights the acceleration of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds issuance [1] - There is a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through potential interest rate cuts and the creation of new structural monetary policy tools [1] Group 2: International Cooperation and Trade - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announces a commitment to more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve annual growth targets and contribute to global economic stability [2] - China continues to offer zero-tariff treatment to products from the least developed countries and aims to further open its market for mutual benefits [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Trade Zones - The State Council approves the establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones in Hainan and 14 other cities [3] - The specific implementation plans for these pilot zones will be managed by the respective provincial governments [3] Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission releases new regulations on the temporary suspension and exemption of information disclosure for listed companies, effective from July 1, 2025 [4] - The new rules clarify the scope of exemptions and reinforce the responsibilities of companies regarding disclosure management [4] Group 5: Stock Market Regulations - The Shanghai Stock Exchange publishes revised stock listing rules, enhancing the responsibilities of audit committees and protecting minority shareholders' rights [5] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange also issues updated listing rules, focusing on similar regulatory enhancements [5] Group 6: Taxation and Consumer Spending - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments announce measures to optimize the departure tax refund process to boost inbound consumption [6][7] - The initiative includes promoting "buy and refund" services nationwide and establishing centralized refund points in high-traffic areas [6][7] Group 7: Financial Regulation - The China Securities Association introduces self-regulatory measures to prevent securities firms from manipulating profits through valuation adjustments [8] - The guidelines ensure prudent valuation practices for financial instruments held by securities firms [8] Group 8: Automotive Industry Reforms - The Ministry of Commerce reports that pilot reforms in automotive circulation consumption are progressing rapidly, with high enthusiasm for local pilot applications [9] - The reforms aim to eliminate restrictive measures on car purchases and promote innovation in the automotive aftermarket [9] Group 9: Insurance Regulation - The Financial Regulatory Administration allows insurance companies to adjust the minimum guaranteed interest rates for universal life insurance products under certain conditions [10] - The regulation aims to mitigate risks during periods of declining interest rates and encourages the development of long-term universal insurance products [10] Group 10: Cultural and Tourism Promotion - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism emphasizes that departure tax refunds for shopping can enhance the export of high-quality domestic products and promote cultural exchange [11] - The initiative aims to attract inbound tourists and expand the scale of inbound tourism [11]

【 机构观点综评 】招商证券称，政策平稳发力，债市环境友好。摩根基金认为，A股市场中有许 多具有全球竞争力的企业仍被严重低估，从长期来看，它们具有非常大的投资机会。 一、焦点锐评 1.政治局：要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，以高质量 发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别 国债等发行使用。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕。要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既 定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固 经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 【点评】广发证券表述，本次政治局会议有三大特点，一是主线明确，"以高质量发展的确定性 应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"，做好"底线"和"预案"。二是政策具备广谱性，有带动固定资 产投资的政策，也有带动消费的政策；有带动传统部门的政策，也有带动新兴部门的政策。三是 政策整体集中于见效较快的领域。国泰基金认为，从会议来看，未来政策有望继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the prices of ferromanganese - silicon (MnSi) futures declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand situation of MnSi was relatively balanced, but the market still had accumulated surpluses. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, exerting negative pressure on MnSi [3][6][57]. - In April 2025, the price of ferrosilicon (FeSi) fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. The price of FeSi was affected by electricity prices, which were closely related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined [4][11][59]. - Looking ahead to May, the surplus of MnSi may be marginally alleviated, but the surplus pattern still exists. There is still the negative impact of Australian manganese ore shipments to be realized in May, so MnSi may remain weak. However, if the low price persists, the shortage of manganese ore will intensify again. There is a high probability that MnSi will experience a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi is still affected by coal prices. In May, it is still the off - season for thermal coal, and the decline of raw materials is expected to remain unchanged. After the production cut in April, the supply - demand situation of FeSi will improve. In May, it will mainly fluctuate, waiting for the peak season of coal - fired power in summer to provide obvious support [4][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **MnSi**: In April 2025, MnSi futures prices declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand was balanced, production declined significantly in April after rising in March, and the daily average production was at a low level. The inventory still increased, and the market had accumulated surpluses. Manganese ore inventory fluctuated at a low level, with a slight shortage. The Australian ore of South32 is expected to resume shipments in the second quarter. The absolute price of MnSi was low, and there was no obvious fundamental driver. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, negatively affecting MnSi. The steel tender price in April was delayed and fell below 6,000 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated at a high level in April [3][6][7]. - **FeSi**: In April 2025, FeSi prices fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. FeSi prices were affected by electricity prices, which were related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined. The prices of iconic steel mills for FeSi decreased month - by - month, and the basis increased as the price of FeSi fell [4][11][14]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on MnSi and FeSi - In December 2024, the Lanzhou Industry and Information Technology Bureau carried out energy - saving supervision on the ferroalloy industry. In February 2025, the long - term contract shipments from Gabon decreased from 300,000 tons to 120,000 tons. Due to the impact of tropical cyclone Zelia, the mining in some areas of Oceania was suspended, affecting the production and shipment of manganese ore. Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The Chinese government will implement a new round of rural road improvement actions and adopt more active macro - policies [17][18][20]. MnSi Supply - In 2024, the MnSi industry cut production. From January to March 2025, the production was similar to that at the beginning of 2024, and it is expected to decline in April. In March 2025, the national comprehensive starting rate of MnSi production enterprises was 49.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.21%. The production in March was 899,115 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. The production profit of MnSi was poor at the beginning of 2025, and then turned negative again. The industry had serious over - capacity, especially in the north. In April, the import profit of manganese ore was generally poor, and the spot price of manganese ore declined. As of February 2025, South32's Australian ore had not shipped, and the Australian ore of United Mining was also affected by the hurricane and could not be shipped in the second quarter. In March 2025, China's total manganese ore imports were 1.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.60%. The manganese ore inventory was at a low level in the past five years, and there was a slight increase in April compared with March. Although the current inventory was low, there would be no hard shortage in the market [21][25][31]. MnSi Demand - The demand for MnSi mainly comes from the steel - making industry, especially for rebar. In 2024, the demand declined significantly, and there were signs of stabilization at the beginning of 2025, with a year - on - year increase in March. In March 2025, China's rebar production was 1.8611 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Due to the high cost of small and medium - sized manganese mines and the profit - protection measures of large mines, MnSi is not expected to maintain a long - term low price. In the short - to - medium - term, MnSi may be weak in May, but in the long - term, there is a possibility of a strong independent market in the fourth quarter [40][41]. FeSi Production Profit - From January to April 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of FeSi decreased. Before March, the profit of FeSi improved, and production increased. However, after April, FeSi prices continued to decline significantly, and the profit of using grid electricity to produce FeSi turned negative, so the production of FeSi decreased month - on - month in April [43]. FeSi Production - In March 2025, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate of FeSi production enterprises was 60.57%, a month - on - month increase of 6.61%. The production in March was 502,740 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. However, the latest FeSi production has decreased significantly. It is estimated that the production in April will be about 440,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase. The decline in FeSi prices is highly correlated with the decline in coal prices [46]. FeSi Demand - In 2025, the export of FeSi decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month in March. In March 2025, China's FeSi export volume was 31,523.207 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.46% but a year - on - year decrease of 15.45%. The main export regions are Asia. If the domestic coal prices continue to decline, the export of FeSi is expected to increase. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for FeSi, increased slightly at a low level in 2025. In March, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 0.5% month - on - month. In 2025, the steel production showed signs of recovery at the beginning of the year, but there were frequent news of production restrictions. From the current supply - demand situation, the FeSi market has limited room for large fluctuations [48][51][55]. Summary and Outlook - In April 2025, the price of MnSi futures declined steadily, and the main contract shifted from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand of MnSi was balanced, but there were still surpluses. Macro factors had a negative impact. In April, the price of FeSi fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. In May, MnSi may remain weak, but there is a high probability of a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi will mainly fluctuate in May, waiting for the support from the peak season of coal - fired power in summer [57][59].

Macro Economic Overview - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: stocks > bonds > commodities > currency [3][5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and appropriate monetary policies, including timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to ensure liquidity [3][18] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index increased by 0.38% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 0.62% [2][12] - Futures for coking coal and iron ore saw increases of 1.96% and 1.06% respectively [12][36] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao rose by 1 basis point to 1.33%, while the yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.66% [12][41] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [5][13] - Bonds are recommended for standard allocation, with a note that the "stock-bond seesaw" may impact the bond market in the short term [5][13] - Commodities and currency are suggested for underweight positions, with expected yields fluctuating around 2% [5][13] Economic Data Insights - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.1% for the one-year term and 3.6% for the five-year term, marking six consecutive months of stability [23] - The report highlights a rebound in steel production rates, with rebar and wire rod rates increasing by 0.35 and 1.77 percentage points respectively [25][28] Market Trends - The automotive sector showed a year-on-year increase in wholesale and retail sales of 9% and 17% respectively, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [33][34] - The real estate market experienced a slight decline in transaction volumes, with a total of 148.98 million square meters sold in the week ending April 20 [33][36]

Domestic Policy Insights - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, maintaining stability for six consecutive months[2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion CNY MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion CNY, indicating increased liquidity support[2] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary measures[4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.74% to close at 21,980.74 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.96%[8] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 231.26 billion HKD, up by 18.48 billion HKD from the previous week[13] - The PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 9.86 and 1.04, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.7% and 2.2%[19] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector saw the highest increase at 8.37%, followed by information technology at 5.98%[11] - Consumer staples and telecommunications sectors declined by 0.29% and 2.73%, respectively[11] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was 5.85%, positioned at the 23rd percentile since 2010[25] Investment Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as consumer and technology sectors[41] - Industries with lower trade dependency and higher dividend yields, including finance, energy, and utilities, are recommended for investment[41] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is considered attractive for medium to long-term investments[41] Risk Factors - Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of domestic policies poses a risk to market stability[43] - Potential disruptions from tariff policies and fluctuating market sentiments are highlighted as significant risks[43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - External uncertainties are high, while internal policies are implemented steadily, which is basically in line with the bond market expectations. After the release of the meeting communiqué, bond yields remained stable. Looking ahead, the main contradiction in the bond market remains unchanged. Domestically, the direction of policy easing is certain, but the implementation pace is to be determined. Internationally, Sino-US relations are likely to ease, but the process is highly uncertain. The bond market is not pessimistic overall, but the upside and downside potential is limited, and yields are likely to remain volatile. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy as the primary approach and a trading strategy as a supplementary one [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Meeting's Assessment of the Situation - The meeting is satisfied with the economic performance in Q1 but highly concerned about overseas uncertainties. The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation, and external shocks are increasing [2][3] 3.2 Policy Thinking - Strengthen bottom-line thinking and prepare sufficient contingency plans. Due to the long - term, severe, and uncertain impact of current tariffs, the direction of policy hedging is certain, and the policy level is based on bottom - line thinking. However, the specific implementation rhythm needs to dynamically assess internal and external changes. Currently, the focus should be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies [2][3] 3.3 Specific Policies - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: There are differences in the wording of monetary and fiscal policies. Fiscal policy should be fully utilized and more proactive, while monetary policy still involves timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with structural innovations such as supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][4] - **Risk Resolution**: In the areas of local debt and real estate, the wording is more detailed, but the tone remains "continuously consolidating", indicating affirmation of the existing policy direction and a low probability of a shift to strong stimulus [2][4] - **Domestic Demand Policies**: These policies are given a large space and a prominent position in the report, but they mainly emphasize bottom - line thinking, such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihoods, and supporting enterprises severely affected by tariffs [2][4]

Group 1 - The central bank is implementing timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support the real economy, indicating a shift from a "selective" to a more "timely" approach, reflecting a decrease in urgency [1] - The A-share market currently lacks confidence rather than liquidity or policy support, suggesting that the market is in need of a confidence boost to drive growth [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is confirmed, with a focus on more proactive macroeconomic policies [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to face challenges in breaking through the 3309-point resistance level next week, with key moving averages indicating potential support and resistance levels [3] - The index has been struggling to maintain levels above 3300 points, indicating a deliberate strategy by major players to accumulate shares while keeping the market in a tight range [5][6] - The Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index experienced slight declines, with the real estate sector showing a lack of investor confidence despite positive news, while the power storage sector saw strong performance [8]

首先，"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，意味着"攘外"和"安内"紧密联系，存量政策要用（兜住 对内底线）、增量政策要等（取决于外交成果）；其次，"办好自己的事"永远不会错，"以高质量发展 的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"；最后，针对外部环境的不利影响，会议既强调底线思 维，也做了诸多部署，为下一阶段的政策方向给出指引。 一、会议部署的核心脉络 按照逻辑脉络展开，二季度将是"外交密集期+存量加速期+经济观察期+增量储备期"。 外交是头等大事，存量政策要用，增量政策要等。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛、赵宏鹤 4月政治局会议通稿的脉络非常清晰，充分展现了高层对当前形势的冷静判断和应对方略。 大规模增量政策的储备和推出需要观察和时间，或要等到年中附近，一些既定和有针对性的增量政策有 望更早出现。 外交密集期。 外交是当前的头等大事，是降低外部风险、化不确定性为确定性的治本之策。 会议强 调"同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸凌行径"，4月9日召开的首次中央周边工作会议 明确要"聚焦构建周边命运共同体"。 对美外交，我们已经展现过诚意，外交部发言人近期表示"打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开"；对非美国 家外交，我 ...

中国经济，正频频让人感到"超预期"。 一季度经济同比增速5.4%，超出了很多国内外机构的预测，而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议，来得也比往年更早一 些。 时间本身也是信号。 当前，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大，在这样的国内外情况下，及时召开会议并向社会传递应对 当前形势的决策判断与工作部署，可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势，统一思想认识，也可以更好凝聚共识。 细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿，多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句， "统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争" 。和2018年的"经贸摩 擦"相比，"经贸斗争"反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断，也正基于这样的判断，会议提出要"强化 底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。" 以变应变。 会议提出， "要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期" ，也蕴含不少新意。 "稳就业"排在首位，"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"，表明在外部冲击加大的情况下，对就业这个民 生之首的高度重视。 稳企业、稳市场，"多措并举帮扶困难企业"，透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一 ...

中央分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作 4月 25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理 念，加快构建新发展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、 稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。 会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力 支持实体经济。创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸。会议指出，要不断完善稳就业 稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的 基本面。（财联社） 点击上图 ▲立即报名 ｜点评｜ 中国一季度经济延续复苏态势，国际贸易环境却再生变化。本次中央政治局会议对中国经济发展状况做出了全面的分析，并及时为下 一步经济发展路径指明了方向。会议为中美贸易摩擦定调，以稳字当头来应对美国关税政策的不确定性，给国内外企业 ...