Market Performance - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.86% [1] - Market sentiment was low in the morning, with a brief rebound before maintaining fluctuations in the afternoon. Over 3,000 stocks fell, while 2,000 rose. The total trading volume increased to 1.13 trillion, up 163.1 billion from the previous day [1] Sector and Hotspot Analysis - The consumer sector outperformed, driven by the U.S. imposing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on all trade partners, with cumulative tariffs on China expected to rise to 54%. This situation emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for the economy, with potential policy support for infrastructure and key industries [2] - Specific sectors like tourism, retail, liquor, and aquaculture saw significant gains, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai showing a stable annual performance (2024 revenue growth of 15.66%) boosting consumer confidence [2] - The electricity sector was positively impacted by electricity price reform policies, while real estate stocks surged due to housing development plans in Guangzhou [2] - Pharmaceutical stocks remained active, supported by expectations of innovative drug policies and performance catalysts [3] - Conversely, high export-oriented stocks plummeted, particularly in the technology sector, with significant declines in consumer electronics, photovoltaics, and AI applications [3] Market Influencing Factors - The tariff policy announced by Trump caused global market fluctuations, with the Chinese government indicating it would take countermeasures, leading to a partial recovery in market sentiment. A potential 54% tax rate could impact GDP by 1.2 percentage points, with a more significant effect on corporate profits [4] - The high tariffs may push the EU and ASEAN to strengthen cooperation with China [5] Future Tracking Points - Domestic policies aimed at expanding internal demand are expected to be intensified, with potential interest rate cuts on the horizon. The first quarter GDP growth is projected at 5.2%, with a decline anticipated in the second quarter, particularly affecting exports and corporate profits [7] - Ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs are crucial, as the potential for tariff adjustments remains uncertain [7] Fund Flow and Style Shift - There is a shift in funds from high-valuation technology stocks to defensive consumer and undervalued blue-chip stocks, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite. High-dividend sectors like banking and public utilities are gaining institutional attention [8] Institutional Views and Market Outlook - Short-term market fluctuations are expected to continue, with a balanced focus on first-quarter performance stocks and policy-driven consumer and technology sectors [9] - Long-term opportunities are seen in the consumer and cyclical sectors, benefiting from policy support and low valuation advantages [10] - The technology sector may present entry opportunities following adjustments, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics [11] Summary - The A-share market faced declines due to external tariff shocks and technology stock corrections, while defensive sectors like consumer and electricity showed resilience. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of policy implementations and first-quarter performance validations, with recommendations for balanced allocations prioritizing undervalued blue chips and high-certainty industries, while remaining cautious of policy risks for high-export companies [12]

而在过去两年，宏观经济的关键变量在于内需。 2023年，消费对于经济增长的贡献率达到了82.5%，2024年虽然降至44.5%，但依然是最大的贡献力 量。在今年两会期间，"扩大内需"更是上升至今年政府工作报告十大重点任务之首。 刺激内需不仅成为了政策端发力的重点，在资本市场中也成为了率先受益于经济复苏的方向。换句话来 说，找到内需增长的β也就意味着找到了消费行业的下一个机会。 距离消费板块2020年的辉煌已经过去了四年多的时间，资本市场对其的关注度却从未减少过。 2025年3月13日，呼和浩特推出了全国力度最强的育儿补贴政策，唤醒了人们沉睡许久的消费投资热 情：次日消费板块迎来了全面爆发，食品饮料ETF（515170）的涨幅也一度高达5.09%。 事实上， 消费作为一个顺周期的行业，板块性行情往往会同步于宏观经济拐点的出现 。根据信达证券 研究报告，在经济见底后的半年内以及经济回升期中，与经济增速较为敏感的行业会有超额收益；最具 有代表性的便是消费板块，在这两个阶段消费板块的胜率和月度超额收益都好于其他板块[1]。 结构性的增长 自 2024年 以 来，老铺黄金、泡泡玛特等公司的巨大涨幅让 资本市场再一次感受 ...

冯毅浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长。浙江大学博士后，中央财经大学 博士，高级经济师，北京语言大学商学院硕导，浙江民革经济委员会委员。出版专著《股权结构与董事 会效率关系研究》,译著《灭火—美国金融危机及其教训》等。 2025年作为"十四五"规划的收官之年，我国经济发展面临复杂多变的国内外环境。在全球经济增速放 缓、外需不确定性增强的背景下，2025年《政府工作报告》明确将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全 方位扩大国内需求"列为首要任务，凸显了内需作为经济增长"稳定锚"的战略地位。这一决策不仅是应 对短期经济压力的主动选择，更是推动经济结构转型升级、构建新发展格局的长期考量。如何将内需潜 力转化为经济高质量发展的持续动力？浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长 冯毅对《金融时报》记者表示，应加强政策评估、创新金融工具，并引导社会预期，确保投资与消费的 有效协同。最终目标是形成投资拉动供给、消费反哺投资的良性循环，缩小区域经济差距，实现经济高 质量发展。 短期稳增长与长期调结构的辩证统一 《金融时报》记者：2025年《政府工作报告》首次将"全方位扩大内需"列为十大任务之 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing attention on Hong Kong stocks since 2025, particularly focusing on investment opportunities in the consumer sector, driven by fundamental comparisons, valuations, capital flows, policies, and market trading characteristics [2] - The Hang Seng Consumer Index (HSCGSI.HI) was launched on August 17, 2015, selecting 50 high-growth leading companies in the Hong Kong consumer sector, emphasizing scarce assets amid the consumption upgrade wave [7][10] - The index is well-diversified across industries, with significant weights in food and beverage (15.02%), hotel and catering (13.24%), and apparel and home textiles (13.2%), effectively mitigating single-category volatility risks [10][15] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Consumer Index demonstrates superior profitability, with a median annualized ROE of 16.3% as of mid-2024, compared to 11.9% for the A-share consumer sector, indicating a stronger performance outlook [20][23] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng Consumer Index has been on the rise, reaching approximately 3.24% in 2024, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [28][30] - Current valuation levels of the Hang Seng Consumer Index are recovering from lows, with a PETTM of about 18 times, placing it at the 28th percentile since 2016, suggesting good value for allocation [31][36] Group 3 - There has been a significant inflow of southbound funds, with the allocation of active equity public funds to Hong Kong Stock Connect targets reaching a historical high of 14.5% by the end of Q4 2024, indicating strong interest in quality assets [42][46] - The Chinese government's focus on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand is expected to benefit the consumer sector, with policies aimed at enhancing investment efficiency and overall demand [50][51] - The GF Hang Seng Consumer ETF, which closely tracks the Hang Seng Consumer Index, has seen substantial growth, expanding from 4.95 million shares at the end of 2024 to 15.6 million shares by March 26, 2025, marking a 216% increase [52][54]

Group 1 - The forum's theme focuses on "fully releasing development momentum and jointly promoting stable global economic growth" [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for countries to open markets and share resources to combat risks and achieve common prosperity [2][7] - The forum attracted over 750 foreign representatives, including 86 formal representatives from multinational companies, marking a record attendance [5][6] Group 2 - The Chinese government aims to boost consumption and investment efficiency as a primary task for 2025, addressing the low proportion of consumption in the national economy compared to developed countries [3][4] - Measures to stimulate consumption include subsidies for green technology, home appliances, and electric vehicles, which are expected to enhance consumer confidence [4] - The shift towards a consumption-driven economic growth model is seen as crucial for achieving China's growth targets [4][6] Group 3 - China is recognized as a stabilizing force in global economic development, promoting high-quality development amidst external uncertainties [7][8] - The country is committed to maintaining a multilateral trade system and expanding its open market environment, which is attractive to foreign investment [8][9] - The stable economic policies and risk buffers prepared by China are expected to draw foreign investment back to Asia and China [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government prioritizes boosting consumption as a key strategy for economic growth, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance consumer spending and address underlying issues in the economy [1][2][7]. Group 1: Current Economic Context - China's consumption scale is significant, but its proportion in the national economy is relatively low, with a gap of about 20 percentage points compared to developed countries [2]. - The current economic challenges stem from a transition away from investment and export-driven growth towards innovation and consumption-driven growth [1][6]. Group 2: Structural Issues in Consumption - The consumption shortfall is identified as a structural deviation rather than a mere average deficiency, influenced by factors such as low public service levels, urbanization quality, and income distribution disparities [2][3]. - The decline in real estate and infrastructure growth has revealed underlying structural issues in consumption, particularly in service sectors like education, healthcare, and social security [3][6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive approach is necessary to boost consumption, focusing on long-term structural reforms rather than short-term stimulus measures [6][7]. - Recommendations include increasing rural residents' pensions to enhance their consumption capacity, which could significantly impact GDP growth [8]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Future Outlook - The Chinese retail market is showing signs of recovery, with a projected retail sales total of 48.7 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [4]. - Key trends include the acceleration of consumption demand driven by policy support, the rise of silver economy due to aging population, and the growth of smart and green consumption facilitated by digital technology [5][6]. Group 5: Government Support and Fiscal Measures - The government plans to implement various fiscal measures to support consumption, including a special bond issuance of 300 billion yuan to promote consumer goods exchange programs [9]. - Enhancing consumer purchasing power through increased pensions and medical subsidies is a critical focus for the government to stimulate demand [9].

新希望集团有限公司董事长 刘永好：拉动消费的同时，拉动我们的制造业的发展。老年人（方面）现 在国家增加了一些退休金，我觉得总体是好的。那么对医疗健康、对老年银发经济、对服务业增加一些 支持，我觉得这也是对拉动消费起积极的作用。 高清 倍速 00:00 02:34 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）近期，新发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》受到社会高度关注，让消费 这驾"马车"跑得更稳更快，对于经济增长至关重要。在今年的中国发展高层论坛年会现场，如何提振消 费、扩大内需，也成为与会嘉宾们讨论的一大焦点话题。 总台央视记者 宁坤：在本届论坛年会的开幕式上，春节以来我国在电影、冰雪、文旅等消费市场接连 出现的热点再次被提及，展现出国内经济循环的巨大潜力。这两天多位参会嘉宾在采访交流时表示，下 一阶段仍需多措并举、打通消费环节存在的各项堵点、卡点。 中国国际经济交流中心资深专家委员 朱民：要保持居民收入赶上经济增长的速度，社保、医疗、退休 金等，我觉得都是很重要的方面，能让老百姓放心、能够有资源消费。我觉得现在的政策是越来越强、 越来越细在消费市场方面，所以会在中国今年的经济增长中起到一个很积极的作用。 如何提振消费、扩大内需 ...

中央财经委员会办公室副主任、中央农村工作领导小组办公室主任韩文秀 3月23日在中国发展高层论坛专题研讨会上作 《以高质量发展的确定性应 对外部环境的不确定性》 主题发言。他表示，在外部不确定不稳定因素 明显增多的情况 下，中国将坚定不移办好自己的事，以高质量发展的确 定性应对外部环境的不确定性，努力为世界经济发展提供"稳定锚"。 中央经济工作会议提出，要全方位扩大国内需求，大力提振消费。当前我国消费规模很大，但消费在国 民经济和总需求中的比例还比较低，与发达国家有大约20个百分点的差距，扩大消费的潜力巨大。 春节假日消费红火带给我们许多启示，从今年开始，我们每年增加2天法定假日，不久前国家出台了 《提振消费专项行动方案》，近期很多中央部门和地方政府都在行动起来，我们将综合施策扩大消费， 不断形成高质量发展与高品质生活相互促进、相得益彰的局面。 一是增强消费能力。在促进经济增长、提高劳动生产率基础上，增加城乡居民收入、优化收入分配结 构，提升居民收入在国民收入中的比重，让消费者有钱能消费。 二是扩大服务消费。积极发展首发经济、健康消费、冰雪经济、银发经济，把文化旅游业发展成为重要 的支柱产业。创造更多高质量的服 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shéde Jiǔyè demonstrates resilience and strategic adaptability in a challenging industry environment, focusing on long-term growth through its "old liquor strategy" and proactive measures to enhance quality and market presence [1][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shéde Jiǔyè reported revenue of 5.357 billion yuan and a net profit of 346 million yuan, reflecting the impact of the overall industry environment [1]. - Total assets reached 11.802 billion yuan, an increase of 5.348 billion yuan since 2020, while net assets grew to 6.808 billion yuan, nearly doubling in the same period [3][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.30 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 142 million yuan, which represents 40.94% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Shéde Jiǔyè is focusing on its "old liquor strategy," which emphasizes quality improvement, brand enhancement, and market expansion to navigate through industry cycles [1][6]. - The company has implemented a "control volume, support price, clear inventory" policy to stabilize channel confidence and profitability [5]. - New product launches, including the Shéde Wisdom series and various other brands, aim to enhance the product matrix and adapt to market trends [4][5]. Group 3: Market and Policy Environment - Recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting the private sector are expected to positively influence the white liquor market [2]. - The company is leveraging these policy changes to stimulate both consumer and business demand for white liquor [2]. Group 4: Operational Improvements - Management expenses decreased by 15.37% year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3]. - The company has made significant investments in production capacity and sustainability initiatives, including the establishment of a green industrial chain [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a general cooling of inflation in the U.S., with February CPI rising 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% and previous 3% [6][20]. - The report indicates that the Chinese government has launched a "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" to boost domestic demand, reflecting a consensus among decision-makers to enhance consumption [26][23]. - The report notes that the A-share market has shown strong performance, leading among global indices, with policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption expected to benefit the consumer sector [21][23]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Data - February CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with core CPI rising 3.1%, both lower than expectations [6][20]. - February PPI data indicates a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, also below expectations, suggesting a short-term easing of inflation [5][6]. Japanese Economic Data - Japan's Q4 GDP was revised down to a seasonally adjusted annualized growth of 2.2%, lower than the expected 2.8%, with personal consumption remaining flat [10]. Chinese Financial Data - As of the end of February, M2 money supply was 320.52 trillion yuan, growing 7% year-on-year, while social financing stock was 417.29 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [15][16]. - The report indicates a significant increase in government bond issuance to address local debt, with nearly 800 billion yuan in replacement bonds issued [15]. Stock Market Insights - The report notes that the Indian market is underperforming compared to global indices, with a projected GDP growth of only 6.5% for 2025 [21]. - The consumer sector in China is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption, with notable gains in the beauty and food & beverage sectors [21][26]. Bond Market Overview - The U.S. bond market experienced fluctuations due to concerns over tariffs and inflation data, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.32% [33][36]. - The Chinese bond market remains cautious, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing to 1.89% amid a stable funding environment [34][36].