投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡整理，小幅上涨。从宏观政策的角度看，8 月经济数据表现偏弱说 明内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，9 月美联储启动降息使得人民币汇率端压力大大减小，未来货币政 策偏宽松的可能性较高，对国债期货下方具有较强支撑。不过短期内政策利率下降的可能性不高，需 要等待后续的政策出台契机，短期内降息预期消退，国债期货反弹动能有所不足。总的来说，短期内 上行动能与下行空间均较为有限，预计短期内国债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | ...

Macro Overview - The macro environment was relatively calm last week, with both gold and copper showing upward trends. The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts remains the main theme, with gold continuing to attract market allocation. The rise in copper prices was primarily driven by fundamental factors, particularly the announcement from Freeport regarding the investigation results and production updates from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which significantly exceeded market expectations [2][6]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.89%, and silver increased by 6.92%. The SHFE gold contract rose by 3.07%, while the SHFE silver contract increased by 6.63%. In the industrial metals sector, COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw changes of +2.89% and +3.28%, respectively [4][24]. - The silver market experienced a significant rise due to the ongoing increase in borrowing costs, leading to potential short squeezes in the spot market. Under the current interest rate cut expectations, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, although there are risks associated with rapid price increases and potential adverse factors [8][52]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply-side events, particularly the production updates from the Grasberg mine, which indicated that there would be almost no production in Q4 this year, affecting prices significantly. The ongoing accidents in copper mines have increased supply disruptions, leading to a downward adjustment in copper concentrate growth expectations, which may elevate copper prices in the long term [6][10]. - The SHFE copper price experienced a pullback after an initial surge, influenced by domestic copper smelting capacity measures announced at a copper industry conference. Despite the price increase, downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a price retreat. The overall demand in Q4 is expected to remain neutral, with potential support for prices if they decline significantly [10][11]. Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 483,000 ounces to 39.95 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 6.3 million ounces to approximately 53.034 million ounces. SHFE gold inventory increased by about 8.4 tons, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.2 tons [40][45]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 11.2 tons to 1,006 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 157 tons to 15,362 tons. The non-commercial total holdings for COMEX gold were 399,000 contracts, with a slight increase in both long and short positions [45][46].

Economic Indicators - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the US in Q2 2025 was significantly revised up to 3.8%, from a previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the strongest performance since Q3 2023[6] - The strong GDP growth has cooled global interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October now at 89.8%, down from 91.9%[3] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6643.70, showing a decline of 0.31% over the week, while the Hang Seng Index and KOSPI led declines in the Asia-Pacific region[8] - The technology sector in the US saw a significant outflow of $4.33 billion, while China's technology sector experienced an inflow of $3.55 billion[3] Fund Flows - In the past week, US equity markets saw inflows of $8.26 billion, while Chinese markets attracted $5.48 billion[15] - Developed markets experienced notable inflows, with US fixed income funds seeing an inflow of $18.85 billion[15] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 4.60%, and COMEX gold rose by 2.83% during the week, indicating a stronger inflation outlook[3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.55%, currently standing at 98.2, remaining below the 100 mark[9] Valuation Metrics - The risk-adjusted return percentiles for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ decreased to 49% and 45%, respectively, indicating a decline in perceived investment quality[3] - The PE percentile for the S&P 500 and DAX is at 93.0% and 89.5%, respectively, suggesting high valuations compared to historical averages[3]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 降息预期回落，关税升级 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250928 海外市场复盘（9.22-9.26） 海外权益，本周美股呈"N"型走势，全周收跌。本周一，英伟达和 OpenAI 宣布达成合作，在大型科技股的带动下，美股三大指数集体上涨。本周二 至周四，美股连跌三天。鲍威尔表示美股估值相当高，特朗普宣布征收新 的行业关税，以及周中多位美联储官员表态偏鹰，均打击美股。周五核心 PCE 通胀符合预期，美股反弹。 本周美元上涨。一方面，多名美联储官员放鹰，例如，博斯蒂克表示预期 今年只降息一次；穆萨莱姆表示进一步降息的空间有限；古尔斯比表示下 次会议不愿支持降息。另一方面，本周经济数据偏强，美国二季度 GDP 大 幅上修，耐用品订单增速大超预期，支撑美元。 美债收益率上行。本周，博斯蒂克、穆萨莱姆、古尔斯比、哈玛克等多名 美联储官员放鹰，给市场降息预期泼冷水。美国耐用品订单、二手房销售、 二季度 GDP 终值均高于预期，初请失业金人数低于预期，经济数据支撑美 债收益率上行。另外，美国联邦政府"关门"的风险升温，给长端利率带 来额外的上行压力。 商品方面，黄金、原油、铜均收涨。本周， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting strong performance in various segments [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that supply disruptions continue to drive metal prices higher, with significant increases observed in copper and precious metals [3][10]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 56.38%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 40.74 percentage points [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to central bank purchasing trends and macroeconomic factors [3][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.07% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.46 percentage points [6][8]. - Precious metals experienced a notable rise, with gold prices increasing by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% [3][15]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals showed varied price movements, with copper prices up by 8.57% and aluminum down by 1.79% [3][10]. - Year-to-date performance for various metals includes copper up 72.50%, precious metals up 67.52%, and energy metals up 56.65% [10][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, with a projected 35% reduction in output from Freeport's Grasberg mine in 2026 [3][31]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic copper inventories, with social inventory at 140,000 tons, down by 9,000 tons [3][31]. - The aluminum sector is seeing increased downstream processing activity, with operating rates rising to 63% [3][31]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending firms such as Huafeng Aluminum and Yatai Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the ongoing market trends [3][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply disruptions leading to continuous increases in metal prices, particularly in copper and precious metals [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals index, which has outperformed the broader market indices significantly [4][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.46 percentage points [3][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 56.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 40.74 percentage points [8]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals saw varied price changes, with copper increasing by 8.57% and gold prices rising by 1.89% [3][10]. - The report notes significant price increases in energy materials, particularly in cobalt, which rose by 14.23% [3][10]. Key Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report indicates a reduction in domestic social inventory by 0.9 million tons, with a current total of 140,000 tons. Supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine are expected to reduce global copper supply by approximately 2.2% [3][35]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes an increase in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, with a current operating rate of 63.00%. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased by 3.30 million tons [3][47]. - **Steel**: The report highlights an increase in steel production and a decrease in steel inventory, with a focus on monitoring supply adjustments and export demand [3][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending stocks such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, the report recommends companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, citing their potential for valuation recovery [3][10]. Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [20][21].

Group 1 - AMC Entertainment is gaining attention as the holiday season approaches, with expectations of improved box office revenue and reduced financing costs due to the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2] - Comscore predicts that North American box office revenue during the 2024 Christmas season could exceed $800 million, representing a 12% year-over-year increase, benefiting AMC directly [1] - Analysts have raised AMC's target price, suggesting that if box office performance meets expectations, the company's fourth-quarter revenue could reach a post-pandemic high, aiding cash flow improvement and debt reduction plans [1] Group 2 - Investor sentiment is rising, with retail communities on social media becoming active again, promoting optimism for the cinema market in the fourth quarter [2] - The combination of blockbuster films, holiday effects, and interest rate cut expectations is leading many institutions to believe that AMC may experience a trading opportunity from late this year into early next year [2]

Group 1: US Tariff Policy Changes - The latest US tariff measures on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries that have trade agreements with the US, such as the EU and Japan, which will continue to adhere to the agreed 15% tariff cap [2][5] - The UK, however, will face a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical exports to the US, as negotiations on drug-related tax rates are still ongoing [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Data - Following the announcement of the tariff changes, the Asia-Pacific pharmaceutical stocks experienced declines, with companies like BeiGene down 4% and Sumitomo Pharma down over 3% [2] - On September 26, US stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.59%, driven by inflation data that raised expectations for interest rate cuts [6][12] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was reported at 55.1, slightly lower than the preliminary value, while the core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [13] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a significant rally, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.5% to $3789.8 per ounce and silver futures up 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, marking a 14-year high for silver [15][16] - Over the past six months, silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 30%, outperforming most commodities, with a year-to-date rise of 59%, compared to gold's 43% [17] - The current gold-silver ratio indicates that silver is undervalued relative to historical averages, suggesting potential for price correction [18]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have reached a historical high of $3,790.82 per ounce, driven by various factors including geopolitical uncertainty, monetary policy changes, and increased demand from central banks [1][2] - Geopolitical uncertainty has led to a rise in safe-haven demand for gold, as investors seek to protect their wealth during times of political and economic turmoil [1] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have made gold more attractive, as lower interest rates decrease the returns on fixed-income products, prompting investors to shift towards gold [1][2] Group 2 - Central banks around the world have been increasing their gold reserves, further driving up demand and prices, as countries aim to hedge against dollar fluctuations and inflation risks [1][2] - A weaker US dollar has also contributed to the rise in gold prices, as it lowers the cost of gold for buyers using other currencies, especially in light of recent data indicating a sluggish US economy [2] - Despite the current high prices, economists predict a potential short-term correction, but Deutsche Bank forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 if macroeconomic conditions remain unchanged [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the August PCE inflation data met expectations, boosting rate cut expectations and leading to a collective rise in U.S. stocks [1][3][4] - As of September 26, 2023, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.65% at 46,247.29 points, the S&P 500 up 0.59% at 6,643.7 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.44% at 22,484.07 points [1][2] - The August PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than July's 0.2% increase, and the core PCE also rose 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with July's revised figure [4] Group 2 - The year-to-date performance of major indices shows the Dow Jones up 8.70%, Nasdaq up 16.43%, and S&P 500 up 12.96% [2] - European stock indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.87%, France's CAC40 up 0.97%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.77% [2] - The market is strongly betting on a 87.7% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, while the likelihood of a third consecutive cut in December is around 65% [4][5] Group 3 - Concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown are growing, which could disrupt the release of key economic data and add uncertainty to the market [5] - Precious metals prices rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.50% at $3,789.8 per ounce and silver futures up 2.77% at $46.365 per ounce [6] - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with WTI crude oil up 0.32% at $65.19 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.23% at $68.74 per barrel [6]